NFL FORUM

Comments

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Did you know we have a new chat area specifically for NFL? Come get in on some NFL talk or sweat the games by clicking the Chat radio button up above or by clicking here: https://rotogrinders.com/chat?channel=nfl..

    Thursday, 10/19
    8:25 PM EST : Kansas City ( -2.5 ) at Oakland ( 2.5 ) —- T: 47.5

    Sunday, 10/22
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( 3.5 ) at LA Rams ( -3.5 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( -3 ) at Indianapolis ( 3 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( -6.5 ) at Cleveland ( 6.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : NY Jets ( 3.5 ) at Miami ( -3.5 ) —- T: 39
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 3 ) at Buffalo ( -3 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 6 ) at Pittsburgh ( -6 ) —- T: 42
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( -3.5 ) at Chicago ( 3.5 ) —- T: 41.5
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( 5 ) at Minnesota ( -5 ) —- T: 39.5
    1:00 PM EST : New Orleans ( -4.5 ) at Green Bay ( 4.5 ) —- T: 47.5
    4:05 PM EST : Dallas ( -6 ) at San Francisco ( 6 ) —- T: 47
    4:25 PM EST : Seattle ( -6 ) at NY Giants ( 6 ) —- T: —
    4:25 PM EST : Denver ( -2.5 ) at LA Chargers ( 2.5 ) —- T: —
    8:30 PM EST : Atlanta ( 3.5 ) at New England ( -3.5 ) —- T: 54

    Monday, 10/23
    8:30 PM EST : Washington ( 4.5 ) at Philadelphia ( -4.5 ) —- T: 48.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @33BeRad said...

    I wish I knew who this was or what it means! HAHA!

    Here, this might help…

  • ASitar

    Sleeper RB ———> playing a rush D allowing 127.2 rush yards/game. $3700 on DK. Will get 18-22 touches. Not mentioned on here once. Will be 5% owned.

    I am….

  • gillio

    @ASitar said...

    Sleeper RB ———> playing a rush D allowing 127.2 rush yards/game. $3700 on DK. Will get 18-22 touches. Not mentioned on here once. Will be 5% owned.

    I am….

    Darkwa has been mentioned

  • Dunzor

    @ASitar said...

    Sleeper RB ———> playing a rush D allowing 127.2 rush yards/game. $3700 on DK. Will get 18-22 touches. Not mentioned on here once. Will be 5% owned.

    I am….

  • mike42

    So it seems like the qb’s on the other side of chalky hundley/palmer have better matchups with higher ceilings. Can easily see Bree’s lighting up the GB secondary rather than hoping Hundley plays well and Goff playing like Bortles did in London vs a pass funnel D rather than betting on palmer hoping Arz doesn’t run the ball a lot even though they should given the matchup.

    If Gimmino’s projections are accurate, the case for the opposing QB is probably stronger than the case for the chalky one. I really like Goff this week, odds are even a Gurley TD would be through the air and London games seem to increase ceilings. His ownership projections for his price are not remotely reflective of his setup for GPP’s. If u just think about it, the Goff/Wood and/or Krupp stack is just a sharp stack to have some exposure to and if it works it also reduces chalky AP’s value. Think Goff’s floor is pretty high and he could raise his ceiling which isn’t an unrealistic thing to project for a young QB in this setup. Just make a ton of sense for them to attack through the air early and often, try to catch a vulnerable secondary sleepwalking, doiubt boy genius outthinks himself this time.

  • KardiacChris

    Thanks, I thought the same thing until I read this: Ties in contests with a non-cash prize or a ticket to the next round of a tournament will be determined by that contest entrant that has the highest individual point-earner in their lineup. Should the contest still be tied, the next highest individual point-earner will be used and so on until the winner is determined. Should the contest still be tied (for example, the tied entrants used the same lineup) then the winner will be that entry that was entered first…. I’m pretty sure they added that last part in the rules after this happened!

  • Alcox88

    @ASitar said...

    Sleeper RB ———> playing a rush D allowing 127.2 rush yards/game. $3700 on DK. Will get 18-22 touches. Not mentioned on here once. Will be 5% owned.

    I am….

    Sounds like Orleans darkwa?

  • deactivated204643

    “By Friday I suspect there’ll be a lot of talk about Hundley” – me

    glad to see JM & Levitan read my posts (sarcasm)

    @mike42

    I posted last night that Payton/Brees led offenses have averaged 38pts a game against Capers DEF in their last five meetings. I’ll definitely have some Brees, possibly Goff. Hundley isn’t the only play but I’m not getting off him just because my two favorite sharps got on him.

  • 33BeRad

    @thehazyone said...

    Here, this might help…

    I thought that other pic was ARod, just hard to tell without the uniform. Players look so much different with their helmets on

  • theghostofveebs

    @thehazyone said...

    This week’s eight site projection averages – will keep pOWN up for 30 minutes like last week and then it will be removed so get it while you can. :)

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nAnVAvcCCiG4j9tRt471ujTETN9MQQQII7UboFhGKp8/edit?usp=sharing

    Pretty basic question here….why are you defining value as cost divided by projected ownership? Is there an implicit assumption that fantasy points is correlated with cost, and that if two players will net the same points but one is 50% owned and the other is 10% owned the second one is more valuable?

  • dhess0

    Was wondering the same. You stated it much more eloquently than I could… I’m assuming the higher value is intended to be better on the sheet?

    Even ther way, I’m very appreciative of the info… thanks

  • Dunzor

    @theghostofveebs said...

    Pretty basic question here….why are you defining value as cost divided by projected ownership? Is there an implicit assumption that fantasy points is correlated with cost, and that if two players will net the same points but one is 50% owned and the other is 10% owned the second one is more valuable?

    The projected in that sheet is projected points, not ownership, so the value is cost/projected points

  • deactivated204643

    @thehazyone said...

    Here, this might help…

    I’m torn about the Montgomery talk. Most everything I’ve read, and it’s ALL SPECULATION, is that Aaron Jones might have a bigger share of the GB backfield this week with Monty used more as the third down back. This is based on the belief that Jones is the more dynamic and natural runner. I have nothing solid to back this up except five or six writers (beat and national) speculating and landing here.

  • gillio

    Not a mention of Drew Brees yet

    Last three games vs Packers:

    32.1
    32.8
    28

    This team doesn’t stop throwing even when up big. Pair him with Michael Thomas and you could have a low owned stack with huge upside.

  • dhess0

    Norman has been ruled out for MNF. I know this is typically a main slate thread… but going to have some exposure to Philly for full slates for sure!

  • dhess0

    @Dunzor said...

    The projected in that sheet is projected points, not ownership, so the value is cost/projected points

    So you actually want a lower number?

    Low cost/High points?

  • Dunzor

    @dhess0 said...

    So you actually want a lower number?

    Low cost/High points?

    Correct, it’s basically telling you how many dollars you are paying for each projected fantasy point, so the lower the number the cheaper you are buying your points (i.e. value)

  • casey2884

    DK Cash: Demaryius + Garcon or Dez + Fowler. Keep switching back & forth on this.

  • theghostofveebs

    @qnova34 said...

    There’s no magic forumla, it’s a week to week thing. You need to analyze the games individually, pick your spots you feel strongly about and create a core of players you like. For me I like to have my core of players be at least 30% ownership and I’m willing to go as high as 90% on certain players (last week Mark Ingram, this week Jimmy Graham). From there you need to account for variance by mixing and matching that core with as many possible combos/stacks that you think can “go off”. Some weeks there could be 6 teams that are in blowup potential, others maybe only 3. The most important thing to understand is that even with mass entry you should be “taking a stand” on games across all your ownership. If you want to create hedge lineups that’s fine, but for the majority of your “core” you want to be going in one direction.

    Example: You think NO @ GB is going to go under. Hundley is a young QB who is going to struggle against the NO defense. With this game script in mind, you like Mark Ingram to get an increased workload as a clock killer for NO and want to go over the field (say 40% exposure) on him and under the field on packers. With that in mind you shouldn’t be playing packers or much of the saints passing game at all. If you want to hedge this prediction, you can dedicate 2-4 lineups to stacking up Hundley with GB and NO recievers and Brees the same way. Your exposure is still around 5% or less so you’re under the field, but you’ve protected yourself against a shootout.

    Not sure if this answered your question or helped at all, but like I said in the beginning there isn’t a magic formula you can just copy.

    Thanks for your reply.

    You seem to be saying that the number of entries will be based on how many combinations of specific players from specific games (“that you think can “go off” “). In other words, if I only think there will be good fantasy production from one game, I might only have 6 entries (?).

    I was assuming that your typical mass entry DFS player was starting with a fixed number of entries and specifying the exposures by some (or all?) of the positions. So, for example, QB exposures 35 Mariotta, 25 Dak, 15 Brady, 15 Ryan, and 10 Goff. Repeat for RB1, RB2, etc. Use a lineup builder and limit the player pools to have, for example, defense to be assigned to each entry by specifying exposure percentages for 6 defenses (the defense pool).

    So….is the typical mass entry player doing something closer to the method you described or the method I described?

    And if a “fixed number of entries” is the general approach, do you just let the lineup builder run on “auto pilot” after you have limited the pool and entered exposures for core players….even if you have a short “core players” list?

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @theghostofveebs said...

    Pretty basic question here….why are you defining value as cost divided by projected ownership? Is there an implicit assumption that fantasy points is correlated with cost, and that if two players will net the same points but one is 50% owned and the other is 10% owned the second one is more valuable?

    It’s just a simple calculation and that’s what I labeled it as. But generally speaking if you have two players both priced at 8K and both projected for 20 fpts then you should in a vacuum go with the projected lesser-owned player. There are of course circumstances in which you would modify that and that would primarily be when you believe a player will outperform or under perform those projections. In NFL, I am much more likely to modify based on that than I would be in a sport like NBA where I will almost always just go with the numbers.

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Dunzor said...

    Correct, it’s basically telling you how many dollars you are paying for each projected fantasy point, so the lower the number the cheaper you are buying your points (i.e. value)

    This is correct – the sheet is sorted by “best value” in terms of cost for each projected fantasy point. The lower the number, the better.

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @theghostofveebs said...

    Thanks for your reply.

    You seem to be saying that the number of entries will be based on how many combinations of specific players from specific games (“that you think can “go off” “). In other words, if I only think there will be good fantasy production from one game, I might only have 6 entries (?).

    I was assuming that your typical mass entry DFS player was starting with a fixed number of entries and specifying the exposures by some (or all?) of the positions. So, for example, QB exposures 35 Mariotta, 25 Dak, 15 Brady, 15 Ryan, and 10 Goff. Repeat for RB1, RB2, etc. Use a lineup builder and limit the player pools to have, for example, defense to be assigned to each entry by specifying exposure percentages for 6 defenses (the defense pool).

    So….is the typical mass entry player doing something closer to the method you described or the method I described?

    And if a “fixed number of entries” is the general approach, do you just let the lineup builder run on “auto pilot” after you have limited the pool and entered exposures for core players….even if you have a short “core players” list?

    Personally, I always start with QB-receiver combos and work from there. If I am building 150 lineups, I determine how many QB’s I want in those lineups and the percentages of each. I then plug those in with differing receiver combos (as well as bringing it back in some of the lineups with opposing WRs if I think the game has shootout potential). Once I have completed that process, I determine the salary I have remaining and avg per position and plug in my core plays to fill in the remainder. I’ll typically have 3-4 in each price range (high, mid, low, cheap) that I will utilize at each position to fill in the blanks depending on the salary I have remaining.

    I do NFL by hand though because I am OCD about correlations and exact percentages of players I want in my lineups.

  • sliceman11

    The weather is going to be a major factor in a lot of games this week! Take it into account when constructing!

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @bluebroker said...

    I’m torn about the Montgomery talk. Most everything I’ve read, and it’s ALL SPECULATION, is that Aaron Jones might have a bigger share of the GB backfield this week with Monty used more as the third down back. This is based on the belief that Jones is the more dynamic and natural runner. I have nothing solid to back this up except five or six writers (beat and national) speculating and landing here.

    it’s that third down role that I am keying in on here fyi.

  • theghostofveebs

    @thehazyone said...

    This is correct – the sheet is sorted by “best value” in terms of cost for each projected fantasy point. The lower the number, the better.

    This is all so strange….you provide a file characterizing it and naming it based on ownership projections but the projection is actually points not ownership?!

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Sites mentioned in this thread

Use our links to sign up and deposit on sites listed in this thread to get these bonuses:

Subforum Index

New RotoGrinders Sports Betting Section!

Are you a DFS player who wants to get into sports betting?

If you have access to New Jersey sports betting, then use our DraftKings Sportsbook promo code and our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get the best bonuses in the NJ industry.

Those who can take advantage of PA online sports betting should use our SugarHouse PA promo code to get the best sports betting bonus in Pennsylvania.

If you don't yet have access to an online sportsbook, check out Monkey Knife Fight, a prop betting platform available in 31 states. Use our Monkey Knife Fight promo code to get a fantastic bonus.

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week. Our goal is to help all of our members make more money playing daily fantasy sports!

Bet with your head, not over it!
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler