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Thursday, 10/19
8:25 PM EST : Kansas City ( -2.5 ) at Oakland ( 2.5 ) —- T: 47.5

Sunday, 10/22
1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( 3.5 ) at LA Rams ( -3.5 ) —- T: 47
1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( -3 ) at Indianapolis ( 3 ) —- T: —
1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( -6.5 ) at Cleveland ( 6.5 ) —- T: —
1:00 PM EST : NY Jets ( 3.5 ) at Miami ( -3.5 ) —- T: 39
1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 3 ) at Buffalo ( -3 ) —- T: —
1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 6 ) at Pittsburgh ( -6 ) —- T: 42
1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( -3.5 ) at Chicago ( 3.5 ) —- T: 41.5
1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( 5 ) at Minnesota ( -5 ) —- T: 39.5
1:00 PM EST : New Orleans ( -4.5 ) at Green Bay ( 4.5 ) —- T: 47.5
4:05 PM EST : Dallas ( -6 ) at San Francisco ( 6 ) —- T: 47
4:25 PM EST : Seattle ( -6 ) at NY Giants ( 6 ) —- T: —
4:25 PM EST : Denver ( -2.5 ) at LA Chargers ( 2.5 ) —- T: —
8:30 PM EST : Atlanta ( 3.5 ) at New England ( -3.5 ) —- T: 54

Monday, 10/23
8:30 PM EST : Washington ( 4.5 ) at Philadelphia ( -4.5 ) —- T: 48.5

Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

Here, this might help…

Sleeper RB ———> playing a rush D allowing 127.2 rush yards/game. $3700 on DK. Will get 18-22 touches. Not mentioned on here once. Will be 5% owned.

I am….

Darkwa has been mentioned

Orleans Darkwa?

So it seems like the qb’s on the other side of chalky hundley/palmer have better matchups with higher ceilings. Can easily see Bree’s lighting up the GB secondary rather than hoping Hundley plays well and Goff playing like Bortles did in London vs a pass funnel D rather than betting on palmer hoping Arz doesn’t run the ball a lot even though they should given the matchup.

If Gimmino’s projections are accurate, the case for the opposing QB is probably stronger than the case for the chalky one. I really like Goff this week, odds are even a Gurley TD would be through the air and London games seem to increase ceilings. His ownership projections for his price are not remotely reflective of his setup for GPP’s. If u just think about it, the Goff/Wood and/or Krupp stack is just a sharp stack to have some exposure to and if it works it also reduces chalky AP’s value. Think Goff’s floor is pretty high and he could raise his ceiling which isn’t an unrealistic thing to project for a young QB in this setup. Just make a ton of sense for them to attack through the air early and often, try to catch a vulnerable secondary sleepwalking, doiubt boy genius outthinks himself this time.

Thanks, I thought the same thing until I read this: Ties in contests with a non-cash prize or a ticket to the next round of a tournament will be determined by that contest entrant that has the highest individual point-earner in their lineup. Should the contest still be tied, the next highest individual point-earner will be used and so on until the winner is determined. Should the contest still be tied (for example, the tied entrants used the same lineup) then the winner will be that entry that was entered first…. I’m pretty sure they added that last part in the rules after this happened!

Sounds like Orleans darkwa?

“By Friday I suspect there’ll be a lot of talk about Hundley” – me

glad to see JM & Levitan read my posts (sarcasm)

@mike42

I posted last night that Payton/Brees led offenses have averaged 38pts a game against Capers DEF in their last five meetings. I’ll definitely have some Brees, possibly Goff. Hundley isn’t the only play but I’m not getting off him just because my two favorite sharps got on him.

I thought that other pic was ARod, just hard to tell without the uniform. Players look so much different with their helmets on

Pretty basic question here….why are you defining value as cost divided by projected ownership? Is there an implicit assumption that fantasy points is correlated with cost, and that if two players will net the same points but one is 50% owned and the other is 10% owned the second one is more valuable?

Was wondering the same. You stated it much more eloquently than I could… I’m assuming the higher value is intended to be better on the sheet?

Even ther way, I’m very appreciative of the info… thanks

The projected in that sheet is projected points, not ownership, so the value is cost/projected points

I’m torn about the Montgomery talk. Most everything I’ve read, and it’s ALL SPECULATION, is that Aaron Jones might have a bigger share of the GB backfield this week with Monty used more as the third down back. This is based on the belief that Jones is the more dynamic and natural runner. I have nothing solid to back this up except five or six writers (beat and national) speculating and landing here.

Not a mention of Drew Brees yet

Last three games vs Packers:

32.1
32.8
28

This team doesn’t stop throwing even when up big. Pair him with Michael Thomas and you could have a low owned stack with huge upside.

Norman has been ruled out for MNF. I know this is typically a main slate thread… but going to have some exposure to Philly for full slates for sure!

So you actually want a lower number?

Low cost/High points?

Correct, it’s basically telling you how many dollars you are paying for each projected fantasy point, so the lower the number the cheaper you are buying your points (i.e. value)

DK Cash: Demaryius + Garcon or Dez + Fowler. Keep switching back & forth on this.

Thanks for your reply.

You seem to be saying that the number of entries will be based on how many combinations of specific players from specific games (“that you think can “go off” “). In other words, if I only think there will be good fantasy production from one game, I might only have 6 entries (?).

I was assuming that your typical mass entry DFS player was starting with a fixed number of entries and specifying the exposures by some (or all?) of the positions. So, for example, QB exposures 35 Mariotta, 25 Dak, 15 Brady, 15 Ryan, and 10 Goff. Repeat for RB1, RB2, etc. Use a lineup builder and limit the player pools to have, for example, defense to be assigned to each entry by specifying exposure percentages for 6 defenses (the defense pool).

So….is the typical mass entry player doing something closer to the method you described or the method I described?

And if a “fixed number of entries” is the general approach, do you just let the lineup builder run on “auto pilot” after you have limited the pool and entered exposures for core players….even if you have a short “core players” list?

It’s just a simple calculation and that’s what I labeled it as. But generally speaking if you have two players both priced at 8K and both projected for 20 fpts then you should in a vacuum go with the projected lesser-owned player. There are of course circumstances in which you would modify that and that would primarily be when you believe a player will outperform or under perform those projections. In NFL, I am much more likely to modify based on that than I would be in a sport like NBA where I will almost always just go with the numbers.

This is correct – the sheet is sorted by “best value” in terms of cost for each projected fantasy point. The lower the number, the better.

Personally, I always start with QB-receiver combos and work from there. If I am building 150 lineups, I determine how many QB’s I want in those lineups and the percentages of each. I then plug those in with differing receiver combos (as well as bringing it back in some of the lineups with opposing WRs if I think the game has shootout potential). Once I have completed that process, I determine the salary I have remaining and avg per position and plug in my core plays to fill in the remainder. I’ll typically have 3-4 in each price range (high, mid, low, cheap) that I will utilize at each position to fill in the blanks depending on the salary I have remaining.

I do NFL by hand though because I am OCD about correlations and exact percentages of players I want in my lineups.

The weather is going to be a major factor in a lot of games this week! Take it into account when constructing!

it’s that third down role that I am keying in on here fyi.

This is all so strange….you provide a file characterizing it and naming it based on ownership projections but the projection is actually points not ownership?!