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  • bhdevault

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    Thursday, 10/18
    8:20 PM EST : Denver ( -1.5 ) at Arizona ( 1.5 ) —- T: 40

    Sunday, 10/21
    9:30 AM EST : Tennessee ( 6.5 ) at LA Chargers ( -6.5 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( 3 ) at Tampa Bay ( -3 ) —- T: 49.5
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( 4 ) at Philadelphia ( -4 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 0 ) at Miami ( 0 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( 4.5 ) at Jacksonville ( -4.5 ) —- T: 43
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 6.5 ) at Indianapolis ( -6.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : New England ( -2.5 ) at Chicago ( 2.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Minnesota ( -3 ) at NY Jets ( 3 ) —- T: 47
    4:05 PM EST : New Orleans ( 2.5 ) at Baltimore ( -2.5 ) —- T: 50
    4:25 PM EST : LA Rams ( -11 ) at San Francisco ( 11 ) —- T: —
    4:25 PM EST : Dallas ( 1.5 ) at Washington ( -1.5 ) —- T: 42
    8:20 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 6 ) at Kansas City ( -6 ) —- T: —

    Monday, 10/22
    8:15 PM EST : NY Giants ( 5.5 ) at Atlanta ( -5.5 ) —- T: 54

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • zline34

    @Supanice said...

    Nope. Kirk captain with no Rosen.

    I’m going dual kicker for the 3rd straight showdown, it hasn’t let me down yet. I believe a kicker has been in nearly every winning showdown lineup.

  • mike42

    @Messiah717 said...

    I’d like to see statistics as to what these “revenge” games ever amount to. I mean is the QB going to throw to a guy more or are they going to center the game plan around a guy because it’s his former team?

    It’s not the major reason Snead might end up chalky in cash and GPP’s, I think it has more to do with Latimore covering Smokey or possibly Crabtree and Snead having the best matchup. Add in NO’s being a pass funnel that should lead to more PA’s for Bal and Snead should see a lot of tgts this week. He would need a TD to smash, but for cash the tgts alone should make him viable.

  • mike42

    @bluebroker said...

    Sherman didn’t shadow until the last GB drive (or two). That’s when he was called for the big illegal contact vs Adams.

    Edit: GB lined up ESB/DMoore on Sherman’s side most of the night and then threw away from him (Sherman). I watched the 22 last night. Rodgers missed countless open receivers. MVS was open a lot, so was Adams. I’m not sure what’s got into OSE but he left a lot of yards on the field while holding the ball too long. Maybe the passing lanes were crowded, maybe too much pressure to get the passes off on time. I don’t know.

    Preliminary thoughts on Snead & Jeffery. Snead can rack up targets/receptions to a degree but he has shown little TD upside in this offense. I definitely wouldn’t use him on FD and he probably won’t get 20pts on DK w/o that TD upside. I don’t think he’s a bad play but he has had a limited ceiling all year.

    Jeffery could see a lot of Bradberry here. I’m not saying Bradberry is a shutdown corner but I think he could match up well vs Jeffery.

    Thx Blue. I saw him on Adams at the end, wasn’t sure if it was for the whole game.

    I also think people will be chasing a bit with Alshon, doesn’t seem like the type to crush car. I like this game to fly over the total, like ertz, Cam and maybe one of the faster Car WR’s, not funchess basically.

  • deactivated204643

    @NDNole said...

    The jags have a bad game and all of a sudden its attack the slot?

    The Coutee play is partially based on what Mrs Beasley did to the Jags slot last week. Tyler Patmon (I think) got schooled. Fuller & Hopkins have tough matchups on the outside. HST has shown they will scheme to get Coutee heavily involved. I’m not sure he’ll be in my pool but with HST having a poor running game and bad OL it would make sense to throw quick passes to Coutee.

  • JH822547

    @mike42 said...

    I’d like to see statistics as to what these “revenge” games ever amount to. I mean is the QB going to throw to a guy more or are they going to center the game plan around a guy because it’s his former team?

    I think you always get a feeling that if the team have got a special play for that player that will be the game they’ll use it but overall I doubt it makes much difference.

  • infantryboys

    @bluebroker said...

    The Coutee play is partially based on what Mrs Beasley did to the Jags slot last week. Tyler Patmon (I think) got schooled. Fuller & Hopkins have tough matchups on the outside. HST has shown they will scheme to get Coutee heavily involved. I’m not sure he’ll be in my pool but with HST having a poor running game and bad OL it would make sense to throw quick passes to Coutee.

    That’s exactly what I was thinking. Watson might not have time to throw consistently to Fuller and Nuk with that trash O-line. I doubt his ribs/lungs are 100% either, so I doubt he wants to stand in there and take a beating.

  • infantryboys

    @JH822547 said...

    I think you always get a feeling that if the team have got a special play for that player that will be the game they’ll use it but overall I doubt it makes much difference.

    Unless you’re Steve Smith Sr.

  • deactivated204643

    @Messiah717 said...

    Too soon?

    I’m often a week early on my plays. It can be frustrating

  • deeebo

    so Gurley is 10.2k? Are people actually actually actually playing on FD? 10.2 k ? that is absurd

  • Soma919

    @deeebo said...

    so Gurley is 10.2k? Are people actually actually actually playing on FD? 10.2 k ? that is absurd

    It is high for sure but is it too high to not play him? Absolutely not. He has the highest floor and ceiling of anyone in the NFL. I don’t care what his price is I will find a way to jam him into a good amount of my line ups.

  • theghostofveebs

    @mike42 said...

    So BB is going to be facing the same O 2 weeks in a row since Nagy is a Reid disciple. You know Nagy try’s to attack an opponents weaknesses and good call to those who said Cohen matched up well vs Miami and was in play. The issue with NE’s D is they don’t really have any strengths. I’m wondering if Nagy goes RB heavy this week, uses Howard more because it should work and keep Brady off the field. My guess is Nagy doesn’t necessarily try to outsmart BB but rather shoves it right down their throat. Any thoughts?

    I like Cohen, Gabriel and Robinson in decreasing order. James White, Michel, Edelman, Brady, Gordon, Hogan, Gronk in decreasing order. Fade Bears D and Howard.

    There are other games with better passing attacks to invest in this week….on the other end of the QB pricing spectrum.

  • NDNole

    Rosen is going to be in the winning showdown lineup……….why? cause that’s how showdowns roll.

  • Messiah717

    @theghostofveebs said...

    I like Cohen, Gabriel and Robinson in decreasing order. James White, Michel, Edelman, Brady, Gordon, Hogan, Gronk in decreasing order. Fade Bears D and Howard.

    There are other games with better passing attacks to invest in this week….on the other end of the QB pricing spectrum.

    I like that Burton is always the forgotten man.

  • infantryboys

    @theghostofveebs said...

    I like Cohen, Gabriel and Robinson in decreasing order. James White, Michel, Edelman, Brady, Gordon, Hogan, Gronk in decreasing order. Fade Bears D and Howard.

    There are other games with better passing attacks to invest in this week….on the other end of the QB pricing spectrum.

    Gordon is getting more involved in the Patriots offense every week. Bigger snap rate and target share. I’d have him rated higher than that. I agree on your take on the Bears.

  • Lilc313

    Broncos vs Cardinals

    horrible game but still going to bet.

  • ironhammer

    @NDNole said...

    Rosen is going to be in the winning showdown lineup……….why? cause that’s how showdowns roll.

    I think Rosen has been playing better than the stats suggest – he’s been making some good throws but his receivers have been dropping catches. I definitely prefer him over Keenum

  • Mtwizz777

    @ASitar said...

    Keep. It. Simple. Tonight

    Damn straight, except Larry Fitzgerald always plays well during primetime.

  • theghostofveebs

    @Messiah717 said...

    I like that Burton is always the forgotten man.

    In a vanilla week I typically have more exposure to Burton than any other Bear. Pats D…when not targetting to take a specific player away….is very traditional and you don’t get a lot of production out of the between the tackles back or the TE. You can see this in their positional defense DVOA…horrible against WR1, good against WR2, WR3, neutral against TE and pass catching back. I like Cohen and Gabriel preferentially this week because they are speedy. I suppose I’d give equal exposure to Robinson and Burton. Its early in the week but my “significant exposure” short list is probably just Cohen, White and Michel.

  • mike42

    @theghostofveebs said...

    In a vanilla week I typically have more exposure to Burton than any other Bear. Pats D…when not targetting to take a specific player away….is very traditional and you don’t get a lot of production out of the between the tackles back or the TE. You can see this in their positional defense DVOA…horrible against WR1, good against WR2, WR3, neutral against TE and pass catching back. I like Cohen and Gabriel preferentially this week because they are speedy. I suppose I’d give equal exposure to Robinson and Burton. Its early in the week but my “significant exposure” short list is probably just Cohen, White and Michel.

    The line is moving towards bears and under, I guess it’s supposed to be windy in the Windy City on Sunday, go figure. Bears are about as bad of a matchup for NE rb’s as possible, they stop the run and excel in defending the short passing game. Last game was a letdown in a letdown spot in a 100 heat. Players slacked, you could see it. It was an aberration, not a trend. I don’t like a single NE player in this game, just bad matchups everywhere and recency bias will lead people to think otherwise. NE hasn’t been good on the road this year and the thought that Gordon changes that is offset by the fact the Bears have been an awful team to target number one WR’s against going back to last year. The best play may be Edelman, short passing game may run through him this week. I do like burton and Cohen a bit too but I definitely feel there are better games to target than this one. A week after NE doesn’t punt Vs an awful D they face the best D, just seems like fading NE is the wisest move.

    BTW- Interesting tidbit, Chicago is called the Windy City because our politicians are full of shit, not because of the weather.

  • Cappy

    I would be shocked if David Johnson is the Captain on the optimal lineup. He’s the highest priced guy on the slate and guys 2-5 have just as high if not higher ceiling. Keenum could stink up the joint and still throw for 300 and 2, which would be more points than DJ has posted in a game. Both Denver receivers have a high concentration of targets and either could hit 100+ bonus which seems way out of the way for DJ. All it takes is some variance than sends DJ’s one weekly TD Rosen’s way and your saving 3k with the QB.

    Of course this will be the week that Arizona figures it out on offense and DJ goes 18-105-1 and 5-50-1 ….

  • infantryboys

    @mike42 said...

    The line is moving towards bears and under, I guess it’s supposed to be windy in the Windy City on Sunday, go figure. Bears are about as bad of a matchup for NE rb’s as possible, they stop the run and excel in defending the short passing game. Last game was a letdown in a letdown spot in a 100 heat. Players slacked, you could see it. It was an aberration, not a trend. I don’t like a single NE player in this game, just bad matchups everywhere and recency bias will lead people to think otherwise. NE hasn’t been good on the road this year and the thought that Gordon changes that is offset by the fact the Bears have been an awful team to target number one WR’s against going back to last year. The best play may be Edelman, short passing game may run through him this week.

    BTW- Interesting tidbit, Chicago is called the Windy City because our politicians are full of shit, not because of the weather.

    I never knew that about Chicago. Interesting.

  • CleverGroom

    Vance Joseph’s Broncos are one of the worst teams of the last several years when playing on the road. They’re also coming off an NFL record two 200+ yard rushers allowed in consecutive weeks. They said it couldn’t be done, but these Broncos are out to prove the cynics wrong: they can fail harder than anybody dreamed possible.

    An obvious counter-narrative is that they’ll stiffen now that their backs are to the wall. Well, same can be said for the Cardinals. This is literally a loser-goes-home game for somebody. Maybe Steve Wilks’s butt isn’t fully involved in the flames licking underneath him, but we’re getting well into the window for a guy like Mike McCoy to get fired. He was last fired 11 months ago, come Saturday. By the Broncos.

    Both of these teams are disgusting travesties. What separates them in my mind is that first, the Cardinals D has some good things going for it. They could be good enough to win this game by themselves, especially as bad as Case Keenum has played, and especially now that he’s lost even more of his OL.

    The Cardinals D has playmakers at every level. They’ve got the home field. They’ve got a former OC from their opponent to help their defensive HC prep on a short week. It’s more than enough to handle the flaccid VJ road Broncos.

    For their part, it’s true that the Broncos are stout in their front seven and that the Josh “The Hebrew Hammer” Rosen doesn’t have an OL himself, but Rosen’s played much better than Case, if you ask me. He’s got the goods and one of these games he’ll put it together. He’s got the tools to exploit this defense, especially at home.

    David Johnson can be used awfully and still perform as well as Isaiah Crowell, surely (even if that doesn’t mean massive broken plays). Ricky Seals-Jones is a great fit for the classic Broncos vulnerability to TE. Larry Fitzgerald will be unavoidably detained by Chris Harris Jr., but who can stop Christian Kirk? The dude’s been flashing admirably, under the circumstances (McCoy as OC, fellow rookie at QB, poor pass pro, challenging defensive matchups).

    The range of outcomes I’m expecting is somewhere from a 28-10 type Cardinals blowout to an 18-12 punts and field goals fest. Emmanuel Sanders (who’s primarily a slot and gadget player, avoiding Patrick Peterson), Phillip Lindsay, and Brandon McManus are the Broncos I have some interest in rostering. For the Cards it’s Rosen, DJ, Kirk, RSJ, Phil “Old Man Rictus” Dawson, and the Cards DST. To me, any other pieces of this game would be a depth play to round out 20+ entries.

    ETA

    Also, call me crazy—and this thought is definitely crazy and shouldn’t be acted on—but I’d say there’s a non-zero chance of Swag Kelly showing up on a winning roster.

  • ASitar

    Doing 2 DK Showdown LUs. Decided to fade Keenum in both. I’m really set on a 21-17 Zona win. I think Manny outscores Keenum and I really wanted to make him fit both. Cards DST in one, McManus in one. Denver O line is banged up. I really wouldn’t be shocked if Chad Kelly plays a little so if that happens Manny still eats. I do however think that first place takes less home than the Monday Showdown.

    GL tonight

  • KindGuy

    @CleverGroom said...

    ETA

    Also, call me crazy—and this thought is definitely crazy and shouldn’t be acted on—but I’d say there’s a non-zero chance of Swag Kelly showing up on a winning roster.

  • theghostofveebs

    @mike42 said...

    The line is moving towards bears and under, I guess it’s supposed to be windy in the Windy City on Sunday, go figure. Bears are about as bad of a matchup for NE rb’s as possible, they stop the run and excel in defending the short passing game. Last game was a letdown in a letdown spot in a 100 heat. Players slacked, you could see it. It was an aberration, not a trend. I don’t like a single NE player in this game, just bad matchups everywhere and recency bias will lead people to think otherwise. NE hasn’t been good on the road this year and the thought that Gordon changes that is offset by the fact the Bears have been an awful team to target number one WR’s against going back to last year. The best play may be Edelman, short passing game may run through him this week. I do like burton and Cohen a bit too but I definitely feel there are better games to target than this one. A week after NE doesn’t punt Vs an awful D they face the best D, just seems like fading NE is the wisest move.

    BTW- Interesting tidbit, Chicago is called the Windy City because our politicians are full of shit, not because of the weather.

    Definitely an interesting matchup….moreso than the “offense versus offense” NE vs KC matchup….will definitely be a great test of O strength versus D strength.

    I like NE here because unlike NO they don’t have crappy road history, but its within the realm of possibility that Mitch and Nagy have “turned a corner” with execution on offense in which case I would favor the Bears in a 27-24 kinda game…maybe with a pick 6 by the Bears.

    Gordon’s progess thus far has been more a “moral victory” in that he’s engaged and marginally productive….homers like me have been waiting for Moss 2.0.

    Michel on the other hand has been a major contributor, although TB is still obviously pissed that they are not in synch using Michel as a dumpoff (he’s kind of acting like a bitch in that regard).

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