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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 10/15
    8:20 PM EST : Kansas City ( -3.5 ) at Denver ( 3.5 ) —- T: 50

    Sunday, 10/20
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( 1 ) at Indianapolis ( -1 ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : Minnesota ( (Pick) ) at Detroit ( (Pick) ) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( -9.5 ) at Washington ( 9.5 ) —- T: 42.5
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( 3 ) at NY Giants ( -3 ) —- T: 48.5
    1:00 PM EST : Oakland ( 6.5 ) at Green Bay ( -6.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( -3 ) at Cincinnati ( 3 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : Miami ( 16 ) at Buffalo ( -16 ) —- T: 39.5
    1:00 PM EST : LA Rams ( -3 ) at Atlanta ( 3 ) —- T: 53.5
    4:05 PM EST : LA Chargers ( (Pick) ) at Tennessee ( (Pick) ) —- T: 40
    4:25 PM EST : New Orleans ( 4 ) at Chicago ( -4 ) —- T: 39.5
    4:25 PM EST : Baltimore ( 4 ) at Seattle ( -4 ) —- T: 50.5
    8:20 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 3 ) at Dallas ( -3 ) —- T: 48.5

    Monday, 10/21
    8:15 PM EST : New England ( -10 ) at NY Jets ( 10 ) —- T: 43

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • JSteele

    @Ace15 said...

    It shouldn’t be a Michel game therefore it will be a Michel game. 4TD night incoming.

    My research tells me that the way to beat the Jets is with edge rushers and not up the gut like Michel seems to do most of the time. Definitely a James White smash spot.

    Edit: Michel actually rushes to the edge a ton in the red zone, it may actually be a good spot for him.

  • ifthethunder

    @Ace15 said...

    It shouldn’t be a Michel game therefore it will be a Michel game. 4TD night incoming.

    Or else Brady will vulture the TDs like he did in Miami, and everyone who didn’t play him as CPT will get screwed.

    Does any team mess with DFS players as much as New England?
    ~

  • mdalb

    @ifthethunder said...

    Or else Brady will vulture the TDs like he did in Miami, and everyone who didn’t play him as CPT will get screwed.

    Does any team mess with DFS players as much as New England?
    ~

    I am a New England homer. I try to avoid playing any Patriots because of example you just posted. They are impossible to figure out but i think White is a great play tonight.

  • SteeloCity

    Darnold or Edelman on FD? Got Brady in the CAPT spot for cash.

  • Ace15

    Getting a little nutty. Kicker in the Captn spot tonight.

  • js5734

    is fading brady on DK a decent strategy or is that just asking to lose money – can end up with a michel – darnold – crowder combo.

  • Southie777

    I’m a lifelong Pats fan and long-time season ticket holder and I’ve given up trying to figure out the running game. I used to feel like I had a decent handle on whether it was going to be a more straight-up RB game (now Michel, formerly Blount, etc.) or a short-passing attack instead of a running game (now White, formerly Dion Lewis or Vereen or Faulk). I give up. Then they even started throwing in Develin (not tonight, because he’s hurt, but in general) or Bolden, just to really add to the quagmire. Been great for real-life results, fantasy not so much! As far as starting a defense in the Showdowns, I’m beginning to wonder about the wisdom of it, now that everyone has caught on. But I’m not so sure tonight is the night to start getting cute!

  • js5734

    @Southie777 said...

    I’m a lifelong Pats fan and long-time season ticket holder and I’ve given up trying to figure out the running game. I used to feel like I had a decent handle on whether it was going to be a more straight-up RB game (now Michel, formerly Blount, etc.) or a short-passing attack instead of a running game (now White, formerly Dion Lewis or Vereen or Faulk). I give up. Then they even started throwing in Develin (not tonight, because he’s hurt, but in general) or Bolden, just to really add to the quagmire. Been great for real-life results, fantasy not so much! As far as starting a defense in the Showdowns, I’m beginning to wonder about the wisdom of it, now that everyone has caught on. But I’m not so sure tonight is the night to start getting cute!

    what do you mean about the starting a defense in showdown part?

  • JSteele

    @Southie777 said...

    I’m a lifelong Pats fan and long-time season ticket holder and I’ve given up trying to figure out the running game.

    I’ve noticed that Michel seems to struggle at home this season, but on the road he’s better.

    Week 1 at home against the Steelers he struggled which led to a nearly even split in Carries between him and other players.
    Week 2 in Miami he had 21 carries compared to 16 for every other player.
    Week 3 at home he struggled and had less carries
    Week 4 in Buffalo he had the majority of carries

    Also of note, there has only been 1 vulture TD on the road this season (not including Brady).

  • superstars92

    I wonder how Damien Harris feels when he sees his “backup” Josh Jacobs be the workhorse in Oakland and he can’t even see the field in New England even with Burkhead injured lol.

  • superstars92

    Patriots are so stacked that Damien Harris and (when healthy) N’Keal Harry have played 0 snaps for them this year…both would start on the Dolphins right now if healthy.

    1 year ago, N’Keal Harry was supposed to be a top 10 pick before his injury concerns, but looks like he’s coming back soon and will help with Pats decimated receiver situation.

  • Southie777

    JS5734, when I first started playing Showdowns last season and getting more into the game theory of it and watching the BigT/Headchop videos, I loved their advice to play the D/ST. I’ve just noticed the last few Showdowns I’ve played, the ownership on the D/ST’s seems to have skyrocketed. (I don’t blame people, they’ve largely been coming through.) It just seems to have gone the other way now, where they’re getting too popular. Obviously, I realize this is all very dependent on the specific game, but I’m just talking about as a general rule. And, again, tonight doesn’t seem to be the night to get cute and putting it to the test, as I don’t think either D/ST is a bad play. Something else also just occurred to me, I wonder what the numbers are on Thursdays vs. Mondays. It would seem to make sense that the D/ST’s would probably be better plays on the Thursday Showdown on short rest than on the Monday Showdowns with an extra day of rest. Of course, I have no numbers to back this up, I’m just spitballing here.

  • Southie777

    JSteele, ahhhh, thanks for the heads up, never noticed the splits before. I’m not gonna put too much into it with the small sample size and all, but still good to know!

  • JSteele

    @Southie777 said...

    JSteele, ahhhh, thanks for the heads up, never noticed the splits before. I’m not gonna put too much into it with the small sample size and all, but still good to know!

    Yea I was trying to figure out their running situation and noticed the splits. Last year Sony had 21-133-1 in New York but 14-50 at home against the Jets.

  • Skee

    Ben Watson isn’t even in the FD single game player pool but he’s a choice on the Mon-Thurs slate.
    Tomlinson is in both.
    Kinda weird.

  • JSteele

    In unrelated news, Gareon Conley was traded to the Texans.

  • Dunzor

    So I was having a lot of trouble building my showdown teams for tonight until I think I finally unlocked the key (for myself at least) which is to fade Bell. I think NE relies on its stellar CBs to play a lot of 1-on-1 man coverage and that the hoodie will stack the box to shutdown the most dangerous player on the Jets. If you fade Bell it lets you load up on the NE offense while still getting one or two NYJ pass catchers comin back and makes me much happier with the overall build since with Bell in there you’re basically forced to fade either Brady or Edelman

  • ifthethunder

    @Dunzor said...

    with Bell in there you’re basically forced to fade either Brady or Edelman

    Unless you use a kicker as captain. This might work if said kicker kicks some field goals and it’s a low-scoring game. Anything dumb can happen in showdown. And usually does.

    I’m playing the showdown, against my ‘dummy, showdowns like this one are for suckers!’ opinion. But I’m only playing dime and quarter games on DK, so I won’t be tilting on this hill.

    **might tilt anywho
    ~

  • ASitar

    I think D Thomas revenge game is real tonight. He’s already getting decent targets. I can see a line like 4-64-1. I can also see the guy right below him getting 2 TDs on 3 targets.

  • Agent47

    After watching DJ manage to torpedo both of my season-long teams and most of my DFS lineups while also seeing my Bears get demolished by a backup QB and RB, I am 100% ready for the NBA to start again tomorrow haha! I have Edmonds on one of my season-long teams but saw all the same tweets you guys did, which made me think DJ would be the man yesterday barring any injuries in the game. So frustrating, but it is what it is…

    Thankfully, my wife managed to save the day. She made her first sportsbook wagers at the Blue Chip casino in Michigan City (with just a bit of help from me to tell her how it all works haha) and she managed to nail 2 TD props in the Bears game. She had a $5 wager on Javon Wims scoring a TD at +1800, and he got one in garbage time. And she also had a $5 parlay that had Patterson and the Bears D/ST scoring a TD that paid out around $220. So she managed to win $315 on $10 worth of bets after about 5-10 minutes of poking around on the kiosk while I spent hours last week doing research and managed to lose about 2/3 of my ~$35 in entries this weekend. Gotta love it haha!

  • ifthethunder

    @Agent47 said...

    . Gotta love it haha!

  • klacy56

    @Agent47 said...

    After watching DJ manage to torpedo both of my season-long teams and most of my DFS lineups while also seeing my Bears get demolished by a backup QB and RB, I am 100% ready for the NBA to start again tomorrow haha! I have Edmonds on one of my season-long teams but saw all the same tweets you guys did, which made me think DJ would be the man yesterday barring any injuries in the game. So frustrating, but it is what it is…

    Thankfully, my wife managed to save the day. She made her first sportsbook wagers at the Blue Chip casino in Michigan City (with just a bit of help from me to tell her how it all works haha) and she managed to nail 2 TD props in the Bears game. She had a $5 wager on Javon Wims scoring a TD at +1800, and he got one in garbage time. And she also had a $5 parlay that had Patterson and the Bears D/ST scoring a TD that paid out around $220. So she managed to win $315 on $10 worth of bets after about 5-10 minutes of poking around on the kiosk while I spent hours last week doing research and managed to lose about 2/3 of my ~$35 in entries this weekend. Gotta love it haha!

    That’s how life goes man haha

  • klacy56

    I’m thinking full fade of Brady and Edelman tonight In showdown. After some of the stuff I have seen why not lol

  • Agent47

    After the shit-show that was yesterday and with NBA starting up tomorrow, I was not about to put too much effort into tonight. I slapped together a $1 SE lineup in about 2 minutes that has a Patriots onslaught with Brady at Captain (pretty sure he’ll be the highest scoring player tonight), James White, no Pats D (that scoring pace is just not sustainable for a defense and they’re priced way up), and Demaryius Thomas looking for a little revenge as my only Jets player. It’ll probably finish near the bottom, but whatever.

  • sfguy21

    @Agent47 said...

    Brady at QB

    That’s a bold assumption

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