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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 10/22
    8:20 PM EST : NY Giants ( 5.5 ) at Philadelphia ( -5.5 ) —- T: 45

    Sunday, 10/25
    1:00 PM EST : Green Bay ( -3.5 ) at Houston ( 3.5 ) —- T: 57
    1:00 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 1.5 ) at Tennessee ( -1.5 ) —- T: 50.5
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 2 ) at Atlanta ( -2 ) —- T: 55
    1:00 PM EST : Dallas ( 1 ) at Washington ( -1 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( -12 ) at NY Jets ( 12 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( -3 ) at Cincinnati ( 3 ) —- T: 50.5
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( 7.5 ) at New Orleans ( -7.5 ) —- T: 51
    4:05 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( -4 ) at Las Vegas ( 4 ) —- T: 51.5
    4:25 PM EST : Kansas City ( -10 ) at Denver ( 10 ) —- T: 46
    4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( 1.5 ) at New England ( -1.5 ) —- T: 44
    4:25 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 7.5 ) at LA Chargers ( -7.5 ) —- T: 49
    8:20 PM EST : Seattle ( -3.5 ) at Arizona ( 3.5 ) —- T: 56

    Monday, 10/26
    8:15 PM EST : Chicago ( 6.5 ) at LA Rams ( -6.5 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • Bnett2210

    Before Mixon was hurt the Bengals passing game looked good and underpriced, so now I think more ownership goes there for good reason. The Bengals WRs and the Steelers WRs I think are all good prices. I know Diontae at 4.2 has been mentioned and I will go there some, but Juju at 5.5 I feel like this is a game he’s going to have a big game and remind everyone he is still there and able to put up those numbers.

  • odanny

    @BIF said...

    I can’t respect any QB who wears a glove on his throwing hand every game and in perfect conditions

    Nothing wrong with wearing a glove when you are throwing a great ball like Teddy, but your focus instead should be on RB’s who wear sleeves in perfect conditions (cough.. Zeke.. cough) when it’s a known fact its harder to hold onto the ball when wearing sleeves.

  • thedkexperience

    @TubScout said...

    Not sure by your observation you would last too long in a front office. Like many sports, the level of play of a player is correlated to so many other thing. The team makes the QB, the QB doesn’t make the team. You believe Lamar was an obvious top 3 pick? Lamar is fully dependent on scheme and personnel. By your method you would have easily drafted Lamar T-3 2018. Watson you say should have been #1 pick (Cleveland 2017) leaves Lamar to Browns or Jets or Giants. It’s subjective, but I can tell you many scouts would say if you pounded the table for the Jets or Giants front office to draft Lamar then they would say your risking your job. Lamar is an incredible athlete, that’s what your drafting.

    By your assumption it’s easy to predict QB’s but your criteria (Big games, Titles, Heisman, Mobility) Winston, Mariota, Johnny Football, Bridgewater, Baker, Hurts, Murray, Watson, Lamar are the QB’s you would lay your career as a scout/GM on the line for with constant #1-2 picks on.

    Lamar struggles with his feet in the pocket (plant/set) and read progress. Inaccurate tight window passing. Tends to throw high and wide. Really good vs Man and decent vs Zone. Struggles with over the middle passes. Deep ball is nothing great despite having tremendous arm strength. And outside the hash is biggest struggle.

    Lamar benefits from going to a team with a T5 O-line. His amazing athletic ability will win ball games and flash huge games. But the long haul will depend on his passing as a whole and he has a lot to evolve. Teams will just run scrape and 33 tight stacks and 7T outside leverage if Baltimore sticks with this scheme.

    College QB can hide many things on pure athleticism and arm strength. Playing in big games on TV, winning a hesiman or title while production of big stats doesn’t equate to immediate success in NFL. These elite NFL athletes are just that. Everyone of them are elite. Though fans are quick to point out who isn’t good. If you can ever get a chance to watch college skeleton 77 from a sideline then do the same on a NFL sideline for practice you will quickly see as a whole the vast difference in speed and technique. So to counter it from a QB perspective, the most important attribute is speed (in the mind) not legs. Accuracy is next.

    In many years of scouting CFB and since this was started by Fitzmagic, I looked up my 2005 big board. Only 3 QB’s made my 56 draftable prospects. #3 Rodgers #13 Smith and #39 Fitzpatrick. 2018 I had only 1 draftable QB. #1 Q. Nelson #2 D.James #3. T. Edmunds #4 J Allen #5 C. Davis

    The whole point of being a GM is to risk your job repeatedly. It’s those who refuse to take risks that end up with boring mediocre teams year after year. To your point about Lamar, yes I would have been pounding the desk about him. And I also would have installed a coach with the willingness to do what was necessary to build an offense around a special player.

    The best coaches don’t have “systems”. They adjust on a year by year and game by game basis to the talent on their roster. Obviously I would have been wrong from time to time.

    Where we differ though, is that I firmly believe that the quarterback and coach matter more then the rest of the roster combined. Nearly any NFL roster is capable of 4 wins with an average coach and a bad QB. Almost no roster is capable of 12 wins or more without either an elite coach or QB.

    The best QBs and coaches win you 6-8 extra games a year in the NFL give or take a bounce or two. Every year this keeps happening and every year people ignore it. The best example is the Colts over the last 2 decades.

    The Colts have had 2 elite QBs in Manning and Luck. Each time one of them missed a season due to injury the Colts plummeted. Now the Colts are in the opposite space. Great roster, ok QB and ok coach. No one in the world thinks they can win the Super Bowl because they can’t. They don’t have the QB to do it.

    Of course there are exceptions but usually that’s when a good QB is attached to a bad coach like in Atlanta this year.

    Yes, anomalies can happen like the Eagles a few years ago. But overall you need to be right on your QB. If they aren’t competing for MVP awards within 2-3 years they need to be moved on from. Teams should be spamming QBs repeatedly until they land one. Everything else is secondary.

    Edit – Dallas is the most recent example. People have been harping about Dak’s weapons carrying him for years. Meanwhile for the last few seasons I’ve been arguing that the only reason Dallas even gets 8 wins is due to Dak, not because of him. Dallas is going to spiral to the bottom of the league in offense without him and will be lucky to win 5 games regardless of the talent on the roster. The gap between Dak (probably the 5th or 6th best QB in the NFL) vs Dalton (30 something) is easily 4 wins minimum.

  • thedkexperience

    @TubScout said...

    Lamar has to develop progression with a larger route tree. He needs to be able to progress through his reads and trust. He needs work on leading receivers instead of them adjusting to him. Work on the hashes and better plant, commit and drive throws.

    If the overall team talent on Baltimore takes a dip so will Lamar. He is scheme dependent. I had him as a developmental player 5th-7th RD. Player comps Dennis Dixon, Woody Dantzler, Joe Webb, RG3, Vince Young.

    Clearly he still can improve but keep in mind that Lamar is younger than Joe Burrow and already won an MVP.

    If someone has MVP upside and don’t think that it’s worth building an offense around his strengths then the problem is you, not the player.

    By the time Baltimore takes a dip in talent (probably due to Lamar’s monster extension) he will have grown into being a better passer. As it stands right now he is someone with a 24-4 career record. Why are we acting like anything is impossible with this guy? Because he lost a game to the Chargers when he could barely legally drink or because he lost a game to the Titans who … checks notes … are a really good team. Or maybe it’s because he lost a game to Pat Mahomes who is the best player on Earth.

    Lamar basically guarantees you 10 wins minimum. Talking about what he can’t do when he has an MVP trophy on the shelf already and is younger then the rookie of the year favorite is lunacy.

  • thedkexperience

    @TubScout said...

    No. Tebow was undraftable development player. Left handed is a no go at QB. And I never saw him capable of making outside hash throws. That alone shrinks half the field for a defense. Long release and bad footwork.

    Broadly you may think he is similar to Lamar, but they are very different when you break it down. Not even the same type of runners. One of the best CFB players ever though. Tebow is a big reason the college and NFL game evolved offensively in to some things you see today. Tebow was a big big man for QB. He made NFL linebackers look small.

    Tebow went 7-4 as a starting QB (12-6 TD to INT ratio too) and won his only career playoff start before losing his job to first ballot Hall of Famer Peyton Manning.

    He then went on to play for noted offensive genius Rex Ryan before finishing up his career behind the greatest QB ever, Tom Brady.

    Tebow won games. He won them ugly. He was not a good passer. But his style moved the chains and allowed for a large amount of time of possession. Then he got railroaded.

    Tebow should still be in the NFL today as no worse then a backup QB.

  • thedkexperience

    @TubScout said...

    No. Tebow was undraftable development player. Left handed is a no go at QB. And I never saw him capable of making outside hash throws. That alone shrinks half the field for a defense. Long release and bad footwork.

    Broadly you may think he is similar to Lamar, but they are very different when you break it down. Not even the same type of runners. One of the best CFB players ever though. Tebow is a big reason the college and NFL game evolved offensively in to some things you see today. Tebow was a big big man for QB. He made NFL linebackers look small.

    Ok, now you lost me. “Left handed is a no go at QB”? Steve Young was left handed.

    Are you going to argue that someone has low confidence because they have a fat girlfriend too?

    Anyone who fashions themself as a scout needs to stop looking at what people cannot do and start focusing on what they can do.

  • lotusbomb

    austin hooper will be out for the browns.

    david njoku was getting about 20 snaps a game and was always in for redzone plays. He also wants to be traded, second time this year he’s made it public, browns might want to get him some opportunities to help get him out the door this weekend.

    harrison bryant a rookie they like is 2500, I think he’s in play too. don’t want to get crazy with pass catchers with baker back there though, so I’m more interested in njoku for the TD upside.

  • dcheco

    Hooper ruled out. There goes my TE

  • BIF

    @zeeshan2 said...

    Joe Mixon (foot) remained sidelined at Friday’s practice. Fire up your Gio’s

    Mixon OUT

    Hooper OUT

    The Clev-Cinc game is getting interesting from a value perspective

  • BIF

    @ifthethunder said...

    Show us your golf hand live, Mr. BIF! (harrumph!)
    ~

    I wear one golf glove – NOT TWO !

  • thedkexperience

    @BIF said...

    Mixon OUT

    Hooper OUT

    The Clev-Cinc game is getting interesting from a value perspective

    I read that as “The Clev clinic” before doing a double take. Seems appropriate.

  • BIF

    @thedkexperience said...

    Tebow should still be in the NFL today as no worse then a backup QB.

  • CheeseCutter

    @zeeshan2 said...

    Austin Hooper out

    Dangit. Thanks for the heads up.

  • thedkexperience

    @BIF said...

    I’ve never been a big fan of the “athlete first” skill set at QB but I’m also 52 years old and the game has changed over the past 15 years to where I get that it is a more desirable skill set in today’s game over the Manning/Brady type of QB.

    The pass rushes are more creative and the boys are bigger now so mobility is a required skill set but as you highlighted, mobility without a diverse tree and a sense for where the ball needs to be thrown has not become a one for one trade off.

    The league is full of systems now and some need a Kyler Murray or Lamar type of skill set – a team’s offensive line capabilities has a lot to do with the type of QB you need and what their chances of success were.

    @BIF

    Since you’re here I wanted to respond to this then I’ll leave the topic alone.

    I agree 100% with your initial statement about how much the NFL has changed the last 15 years.

    I truly believe the reason why QBs bust so often is mostly because long time football people continually seem to fight against the rising tide of athletic QBs being better suited for today’s game then the “prototypical 6’5” drop back, make all the throws” guys of the past.

    I’m 39 so a bit younger then you but I grew up in the I Form as an offensive lineman. I love smash mouth football and appreciate the skill it takes to surgically move the ball with a wide array of pinpoint throws. But at the end of the day, the people who can do things that way successfully are few and far between. Chances are likely things are going to go bust if teams keep trying to find the next Tom Brady.

    But every year there is another QB who can pass ok but moves the chains with his legs, often having success as early as year two. Who cares if they don’t last 15 years. As long as they last for 5 when they are inexpensive, you’ll have a shot to win a SB. And, as evidenced by Russell Wilson, a QB can absolutely grow from a game managing scrambler to a “make all the throws” guy.

    So yeah, in conclusion, I believe the bust rate for QBs is high mostly because a lot of scouts don’t understand what actually wins games at the QB position.

  • thedkexperience

    @BIF said...

    Haha, all I’m saying is that Tebow could do what Jalen Hurts did last night no problem. 🤣

  • dominicanpapi

    Aaron Jones didn’t practice on Friday. What an interesting slate this is turning out to be. If Jones is out, I don’t see how you don’t hammer Jamaal Williams everywhere.

  • AdamBski

    @dominicanpapi said...

    Aaron Jones didn’t practice on Friday. What an interesting slate this is turning out to be. If Jones is out, I don’t see how you don’t hammer Jamaal Williams everywhere.

    I have him in my season long one too… I NEED him this week. 😑

  • sochoice

    • 2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2017 FanDuel WFFC Champion

    Aaron Jones no practice. No bueno.

  • antzilla810

    @marker0357 said...

    Makes me like Burrow with Higgins/Boyd even more

  • yisman

    @corbomb19 said...

    Aaron Jones beast of the week.

    Beast now being listed as a GTD.

  • Njsum1

    @zeeshan2 said...

    Austin Hooper out


    You know what time it is
    Cincy’s top cover corner is out as well

  • marker0357

    @yisman said...

    Beast now being listed as a GTD.

    The curse is real. Beermaker is Jayzee666. I’m convinced. LOL

  • 33BeRad

    @BIF said...

    I don’t even think of Bridgewater as a Saint – he was a backup and injury replacement. To me, Teddy will always be remembered as a Viking; that’s where his career projection changed.

    Oh, I don’t really think it is a “revenge” game. HAHA! He probably thanks them because they treated him well. It’s not like it was a bad situation when he left.
    I do think he’s in play, NO def has not been good this year and have been in a lot of high scoring game.

  • Bnett2210

    Pitt will be without Bush obviously, but that hurts the middle of the field coverage, and now Mike Hilton the slot CB is ruled out. I like the D to stop Henry, but I could see TE or slot WR getting some heavy action for Tenn.

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