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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 10/22
    8:20 PM EST : NY Giants ( 5.5 ) at Philadelphia ( -5.5 ) —- T: 45

    Sunday, 10/25
    1:00 PM EST : Green Bay ( -3.5 ) at Houston ( 3.5 ) —- T: 57
    1:00 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 1.5 ) at Tennessee ( -1.5 ) —- T: 50.5
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 2 ) at Atlanta ( -2 ) —- T: 55
    1:00 PM EST : Dallas ( 1 ) at Washington ( -1 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( -12 ) at NY Jets ( 12 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( -3 ) at Cincinnati ( 3 ) —- T: 50.5
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( 7.5 ) at New Orleans ( -7.5 ) —- T: 51
    4:05 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( -4 ) at Las Vegas ( 4 ) —- T: 51.5
    4:25 PM EST : Kansas City ( -10 ) at Denver ( 10 ) —- T: 46
    4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( 1.5 ) at New England ( -1.5 ) —- T: 44
    4:25 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 7.5 ) at LA Chargers ( -7.5 ) —- T: 49
    8:20 PM EST : Seattle ( -3.5 ) at Arizona ( 3.5 ) —- T: 56

    Monday, 10/26
    8:15 PM EST : Chicago ( 6.5 ) at LA Rams ( -6.5 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • BIF

    @thedkexperience said...

    I know that Chase Young is a very good young player but it still boggles my mind that The Football Team took him ahead of Tua.

    If you believe Tua is a franchise QB (I certainly do) there is not a defensive end on earth worth drafting above him. Aaron Donald included.

    …..that’s one opinion yet I was never that impressed with Tua – most of these top QB draft picks come from great systems and great teams that it’s really hard to tell how good they’ll be. I rarely said wow about things he did other than one college playoff game. I was definitely more impressed with Burrow and currently Lawrence.

    I think Kyler Murray is better than Tua comparing a recent top pick – the best thing going for Tua is that he doesn’t have to be great as he actually was drafted into a pretty good situation with an improving team, no real cap issues and lots of draft capital so as long as he is efficient and not losing games for them, Miami has a great shot at 9-7 or even 10-6 if they can steal a division game or two versus NE/Buff.

  • thedkexperience

    @BIF said...

    …..that’s one opinion yet I was never that impressed with Tua

    I think Kyler Murray is better than Tua; the best thing going for Tua is that he doesn’t have to be great as he actually was drafted into a pretty good situation with an improving team, no real cap issues and lots of draft capital so as long as he is efficient and not losing games for them, Miami has a great shot at 9-7 or even 10-6 if they can steal a division game or two versus NE/Buff.

    I hear you. I’d have taken Kyler over Young as well. I understand that there is always a reasonable chance that someone could go bustville but I think Tua also has a chance to be special. If I was the GM of a QB needy team I’d be fine with putting my job on the line for Tua.

    For reference once we get to the Daniel Jones area I’d have taken Young.

  • theghostofveebs

    Here’s what your missing in the Fitz or Tua debate. If you have to find a time to insert a rookie QB, when is the best time to do it, both in terms of his development and avoiding disruption? The fish have an adequate defense and an adequate set of skill players right now. They tried to buy the football prostitute Leveon Bell but didn’t have enough cash. So, Flores knows the current roster is at best a one and done playoff team. Its an ideal spot to insert the rookie, and if you look at it strategically (i.e. Fitz is gone next year or the year after) you’re hindering your long term performance sticking with Fitz.

  • theghostofveebs

    Re: the Edelman question, I’d encourage folks to consider the Patriots offense radioactive until they prove otherwise. The Broncos don’t have a good pass defense or pass rush and this is why NE was initially favored by 10 last week. But as we saw, the offense was horrible due to Shaq being pulled from the starting grid due to “close contact” covid restriction. Edelman had 2 catches. His knee is f###d up. Harry had zero catches. Cam came closer to having a rushing total exceed his passing total. With San Fran up next, my prediction is pain (for NE).

  • jdtrey

    @thedkexperience said...

    Hot take – Dak is underrated and one of the only reasons they won 8 games a year instead of 4.

    Edit – Dak was on a 16 game pace for 6000 yards, 30 TDs and 15 INTs. Let’s say he threw for 5000 instead.

    5000-30-15 versus 5000-30-30 is no comparison at all. Dak is twice the QB Winston ever will be.

    LMAO! Dak is still overrated but I was simply giving you a comparison of another not great QB putting up video game numbers because of their team’s complete lack of defense. Dak is NOT twice the QB Winston is, that’s an absolutely ludicrous statement, but I don’t even think Winston is a serviceable starter at this point so your point is moot. Patrick Mahomes is not twice the QB Jameis is so Dak definitely isn’t. I’d give you they’re twice the QB that Ryan Leaf or JaMarcus Russell were but beyond that it’s an insane thought any active NFL QB is twice the QB another starter is.

  • parrothead112

    @thedkexperience said...

    Thanks Bif! Yeah, that’s not surprising. I have yet to have a big single entry score that would have been more than a nominal cash in the bigger games.

    Is there any way you might take us through your lineup and thought process for this Single Entry?

  • 33BeRad

    A couple early week thoughts for myself. Chargers might be getting a couple guys back on defense(Ingram and Harris most noticeably) which could help their pass defense very much. Minshew might gain some tout steam throughout the week but watch the injury news.
    I think I will fade the pass game in the Lions/Falcons game. We know the Lions like to play it slow and on defense are easier to beat on the ground. Falcons could be a good cheap alternative on defense to the Football Team. They are also getting healthier on defense and Gurley could be a nice pairing. He got 20 carries last week, 4 or 5 targets and 3 red zone carries. Gurley is definitely not the same as he was but if he can pop in for a td or 2 he can be a nice cheaper rb.

  • Bnett2210

    @CheeseCutter said...

    Yes, I’m going with the Was D for cash this week. Dallas o-line is ugly. McClaurin, $5800 at WR, is another option from the Dallas/Wash game

    Yea I honestly liked my first look cash line too much with Allen/Terry/Firkser/Was D so that means it will somehow be complete shit lol.

  • Bnett2210

    @jdtrey said...

    LMAO! Dak is still overrated but I was simply giving you a comparison of another not great QB putting up video game numbers because of their team’s complete lack of defense. Dak is NOT twice the QB Winston is, that’s an absolutely ludicrous statement, but I don’t even think Winston is a serviceable starter at this point so your point is moot. Patrick Mahomes is not twice the QB Jameis is so Dak definitely isn’t. I’d give you they’re twice the QB that Ryan Leaf or JaMarcus Russell were but beyond that it’s an insane thought any active NFL QB is twice the QB another starter is.

    I’ve always said that Jameis is one of the more talented guys, but he just don’t have it upstairs with his quick thinking, decision making in general, leadership. If he is a sponge with Payton and Brees and really learns how to put it all together then he can be special and be better than a lot of starters now. I thought the best places he could’ve went for learning purposes like that was either to NE and really learn the game and all that under BB, or where he is at learning behind Brees and Payton. I don’t think his career is over, and he will get a chance to show if he can put it together or not.

  • Bnett2210

    @thedkexperience said...

    Thanks Bif! Yeah, that’s not surprising. I have yet to have a big single entry score that would have been more than a nominal cash in the bigger games.

    I play SE mainly on main slate and small slates, I do 3 max and max out a lot of 20 max, but SE to me is definitely where I make my $. I use a cash lineup mindset with a couple pivots to a GPP type player, and I get solid results from it.

  • thedkexperience

    @parrothead112 said...

    Is there any way you might take us through your lineup and thought process for this Single Entry?

    Sure.

    2 game slate, Rams 49ers, Chiefs Bills

    Mahomes 20.60
    Mostert 9.60
    CEH 23.90
    Beasley 14.50
    Deebo 18.00
    Aiyuk 9.20
    Kittle 26.90
    Kelce 22.50
    Chiefs D 3.00

    I made the initial assumption that most of the ownership would be on KC/Buf. For the most part I was right.

    Step one was deciding on a QB. I was never going to use Jimmy G with the upside of the other two guys. Goff is solid but I knew that I was toast if either Mahomes or Allen went off. Just gut feel took Mahomes over Allen.

    Defense was next. 100% pure price play. In a 2 game slate it’s highly unlikely that you need a pick 6 from your D so I just took the savings.

    TE was the biggest decision. Kelce or Kittle? I went both. I was concerned that Kelce might get out done by Tyreek but you gotta gamble somewhere. This one worked.

    Mostert busted but Henderson and Singletary did too. No biggie. CEH did great.

    WRs were mostly last and based almost 100% on price.

    Literally none of this was based on matchups. It was all just done on ownership assumptions. In a 2 game slate it’s more about identifying what other people will do in my view. No way I could fade either TE as one was almost guaranteed to be in the winning LU.

  • winnerchickendinner

    @Bnett2210 said...

    Yea I honestly liked my first look cash line too much with Allen/Terry/Firkser/Was D so that means it will somehow be complete shit lol.

    Same, if Smith comes back though going to have to change up some things in a huge way.

  • Bnett2210

    @winnerchickendinner said...

    Same, if Smith comes back though going to have to change up some things in a huge way.

    Yea i think Smith probably is out, but you never know forsure. The Steelers losing Bush hurt us especially in the middle, so I can see Firkser paying off easily (hate against my squad) but that’s part of the reason I know to go there too lol. The secondary is still trying to get in form like it was last year and it’s coming along, but that middle with no Bush and having Spillane and Vince both running 4.7 compared to his 4.4 will show up on the field, especially when a team has a week to game plan that loss.

  • bignish

    @thedkexperience said...

    I know that Chase Young is a very good young player but it still boggles my mind that The Football Team took him ahead of Tua.

    If you believe Tua is a franchise QB (I certainly do) there is not a defensive end on earth worth drafting above him. Aaron Donald included.

    They took Haskins the year prior, why would they bail on their 1st round investment from 2019 that quickly? I get that Haskins is now likely a sunk cost but they can always retool with another 1st round QB selection in 2021.

    Chase Young is a generational defensive player.

  • thedkexperience

    @bignish said...

    They took Haskins the year prior, why would they bail on their 1st round investment from 2019 that quickly? I get that Haskins is now likely a sunk cost but they can always retool with another 1st round QB selection in 2021.

    Chase Young is a generational defensive player.

    Worked for the Cardinals.

  • corbomb19

    How about DJ Moore this week? The Saints got torched deep a few times by Allen Lazard and Mike Williams.

  • DepressedSteelersFan

    Early savings that look great. Prices based on DK

    Gabriel Davis ($3600) – Caught 5 of 9 versus Tennessee for 58 yards. Had a rough go against KC only getting 1 catch on 1 target. Jets are currently giving up 256 passing yards a game and are giving up 28 points per game. The Bills have the 3rd** highest team total on the slate at 29.3 according to Linemovement.com. Only play him if John Brown is confirmed out, and he will probably sit this week in a light matchup due to injury problems.

    Kenyan Drake ($4800) – Had a huge game against the Cowgirls Monday night. Too cheap of a play for 20 touches a game.

    Joe Burrow ($5500) – 5500 is almost criminally underpriced for a starting QB imo. Should be around the 6k range against a miserable Cleveland defense that gives up 285 passing yards a game, plus turnover Baker looks like he’s in final form. I expect a lot of points from the Bengals this week.

    Justin Jackson ($4900) – With Ekeler out, I thought the Chargers would primarily rely on Joshua Kelley to make up for it, but that wasn’t the case. Had 15 carries for 71 yards and 5 receptions on 6 targets for 23 yards against a decent Saints defense. He now gets a super light matchup against Jacksonville who have given up 863 rushing yards through 6 games. Almost a lock for me at his price point.

  • infantryboys

    @Bnett2210 said...

    Yea i think Smith probably is out, but you never know forsure. The Steelers losing Bush hurt us especially in the middle, so I can see Firkser paying off easily (hate against my squad) but that’s part of the reason I know to go there too lol. The secondary is still trying to get in form like it was last year and it’s coming along, but that middle with no Bush and having Spillane and Vince both running 4.7 compared to his 4.4 will show up on the field, especially when a team has a week to game plan that loss.

    Mycole Pruitt will be back this week. Not saying he’ll have a huge role on the Titans offense, but his presence might downgrade Firsker a bit.

  • monarch

    @DepressedSteelersFan said...

    Early savings that look great. Prices based on DK

    Gabriel Davis ($3600) – Caught 5 of 9 versus Tennessee for 58 yards. Had a rough go against KC only getting 1 catch on 1 target. Jets are currently giving up 256 passing yards a game and are giving up 28 points per game. The Bills have the 3rd** highest team total on the slate at 29.3 according to Linemovement.com. Only play him if John Brown is confirmed out, and he will probably sit this week in a light matchup due to injury problems.

    Kenyan Drake ($4800) – Had a huge game against the Cowgirls Monday night. Too cheap of a play for 20 touches a game.

    Joe Burrow ($5500) – 5500 is almost criminally underpriced for a starting QB imo. Should be around the 6k range against a miserable Cleveland defense that gives up 285 passing yards a game, plus turnover Baker looks like he’s in final form. I expect a lot of points from the Bengals this week.

    Justin Jackson ($4900) – With Ekeler out, I thought the Chargers would primarily rely on Joshua Kelley to make up for it, but that wasn’t the case. Had 15 carries for 71 yards and 5 receptions on 6 targets for 23 yards against a decent Saints defense. He now gets a super light matchup against Jacksonville who have given up 863 rushing yards through 6 games. Almost a lock for me at his price point.

    I agree with you on the Chargers running game. I was on Justin Jackson because I thought the Saints would take Kelley out of the game and they did.

    To me this is shaping up as a Joshua Kelley game over Jackson at similar price points. Teams have proven that they can run on the Jaguars and the Chargers with Anthony Lynn want to run the ball about as much as anyone.

  • DepressedSteelersFan

    @monarch said...

    I agree with you on the Chargers running game. I was on Justin Jackson because I thought the Saints would take Kelley out of the game and they did.

    To me this is shaping up as a Joshua Kelley game over Jackson at similar price points. Teams have proven that they can run on the Jaguars and the Chargers with Anthony Lynn want to run the ball about as much as anyone.

    Jackson has looked better running the ball, so we’ll have to wait and see.

  • squidkill

    @AdamBski said...

    Are we finally gonna get a Julian Edelman game??? Total GPP play… I’m sure his ownership is gonna be sub 5%. Any feedback from you Boston guys would be appreciated.

    Umm unless Tommy is coming back to toss him the ball, JE is slowly dying of a broken heart. Look elsewhere papa

  • winnerchickendinner

    @DepressedSteelersFan said...

    Early savings that look great. Prices based on DK

    Gabriel Davis ($3600) – Caught 5 of 9 versus Tennessee for 58 yards. Had a rough go against KC only getting 1 catch on 1 target. Jets are currently giving up 256 passing yards a game and are giving up 28 points per game. The Bills have the 3rd** highest team total on the slate at 29.3 according to Linemovement.com. Only play him if John Brown is confirmed out, and he will probably sit this week in a light matchup due to injury problems.

    Kenyan Drake ($4800) – Had a huge game against the Cowgirls Monday night. Too cheap of a play for 20 touches a game.

    Joe Burrow ($5500) – 5500 is almost criminally underpriced for a starting QB imo. Should be around the 6k range against a miserable Cleveland defense that gives up 285 passing yards a game, plus turnover Baker looks like he’s in final form. I expect a lot of points from the Bengals this week.

    Justin Jackson ($4900) – With Ekeler out, I thought the Chargers would primarily rely on Joshua Kelley to make up for it, but that wasn’t the case. Had 15 carries for 71 yards and 5 receptions on 6 targets for 23 yards against a decent Saints defense. He now gets a super light matchup against Jacksonville who have given up 863 rushing yards through 6 games. Almost a lock for me at his price point.

    On the fence with Drake. Him having one good game with it mainly coming from a 75 yd TD and having duds against bad rush D’s in Detroit and Carolina does not instill confidence. He still does have the carries. Agree that Burrow is a good play.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @winnerchickendinner said...

    Agree that Burrow is a good play.

    Cinn WRs underpriced

  • 33BeRad

    @HoodsFromTheWood said...

    Cinn WRs underpriced

    Hood, when you gonna make an appearance on Junior’s podcast?

  • miggs6876

    @BIF said...

    My first look has me on Chargers, Washington and Bengals D – don’t love any of them but LAC is rested, Wash plays a beat up short week Dall team and Bengals may get to play a back up QB plus Cinc D have INTs in 5 straight games.

    I actually think the jets defense is in play for the bare min. Vs the Bills. Bills offense is trending down. Jets D did ok the first game of the season va the Bills.

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