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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 10/22
    8:20 PM EST : NY Giants ( 5.5 ) at Philadelphia ( -5.5 ) —- T: 45

    Sunday, 10/25
    1:00 PM EST : Green Bay ( -3.5 ) at Houston ( 3.5 ) —- T: 57
    1:00 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 1.5 ) at Tennessee ( -1.5 ) —- T: 50.5
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 2 ) at Atlanta ( -2 ) —- T: 55
    1:00 PM EST : Dallas ( 1 ) at Washington ( -1 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( -12 ) at NY Jets ( 12 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( -3 ) at Cincinnati ( 3 ) —- T: 50.5
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( 7.5 ) at New Orleans ( -7.5 ) —- T: 51
    4:05 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( -4 ) at Las Vegas ( 4 ) —- T: 51.5
    4:25 PM EST : Kansas City ( -10 ) at Denver ( 10 ) —- T: 46
    4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( 1.5 ) at New England ( -1.5 ) —- T: 44
    4:25 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 7.5 ) at LA Chargers ( -7.5 ) —- T: 49
    8:20 PM EST : Seattle ( -3.5 ) at Arizona ( 3.5 ) —- T: 56

    Monday, 10/26
    8:15 PM EST : Chicago ( 6.5 ) at LA Rams ( -6.5 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • lotusbomb

    who’s crazy enough to run a allen/mclauren/gibson or mckissic stack with me?

  • infantryboys

    @lotusbomb said...

    who’s crazy enough to run a allen/mclauren/gibson or mckissic stack with me?

    Even against a bad Dallas D, there isn’t enough meat on that bone for 4 Redskins players to eat, IMO.

  • parrothead112

    @thedkexperience said...

    Sure.

    2 game slate, Rams 49ers, Chiefs Bills

    Mahomes 20.60
    Mostert 9.60
    CEH 23.90
    Beasley 14.50
    Deebo 18.00
    Aiyuk 9.20
    Kittle 26.90
    Kelce 22.50
    Chiefs D 3.00

    I made the initial assumption that most of the ownership would be on KC/Buf. For the most part I was right.

    Step one was deciding on a QB. I was never going to use Jimmy G with the upside of the other two guys. Goff is solid but I knew that I was toast if either Mahomes or Allen went off. Just gut feel took Mahomes over Allen.

    Defense was next. 100% pure price play. In a 2 game slate it’s highly unlikely that you need a pick 6 from your D so I just took the savings.

    TE was the biggest decision. Kelce or Kittle? I went both. I was concerned that Kelce might get out done by Tyreek but you gotta gamble somewhere. This one worked.

    Mostert busted but Henderson and Singletary did too. No biggie. CEH did great.

    WRs were mostly last and based almost 100% on price.

    Literally none of this was based on matchups. It was all just done on ownership assumptions. In a 2 game slate it’s more about identifying what other people will do in my view. No way I could fade either TE as one was almost guaranteed to be in the winning LU.

    I like the 2 tight end by doing that you got basically the best weapons on the slate. See I would have tried to get WRs, Diggs, Goff and Kupp. Probably the not hurt Buff tight end and some RB at flex. very impressive. Thank you

  • AdamBski

    @lotusbomb said...

    who’s crazy enough to run a allen/mclauren/gibson or mckissic stack with me?

    I’m running McLaurin and Gibson… Allen could get replaced mid game for Smith so yea… I get the price is enticing but I think running those two minus the QB is good enough.

  • winnerchickendinner

    @lotusbomb said...

    who’s crazy enough to run a allen/mclauren/gibson or mckissic stack with me?

    All three skill position players are viable for one-offs

  • NDNole

    Does Ben turn back the clock this week?

  • emnj69

    drake….

    setting up for a monster trap at high ownership . I swore in main slates he was dead to me but

  • BIF

    Aaah the mid week craziness on here; people want to stack the Football team from Washington that has not score more than 20 points since week 1.

    Over their 6 games, they had 1 game where nobody hit 11 DK points; another game where nobody broke 15 DK points and another 2 where nobody got to 19 DK points.

    The only fantasy goodness this team has provided over 6 weeks has been:

    Week 2 vs Zona – McLaurin had 28.5 DK points but nobody else had above 12.72 points !!!

    Week 4 vs Ravens – Haskins, Gibson and McLaurin all hit between 21.8 and 24.8 points but that was because they threw it 45 times in a game they were down 2-3 scores in for the last 3Q.

    Also the QB-RB-WR stack very rarely ever works; especially on PPR friendly DK. Of the 6 DK Milly winners this year, not a single one has played the QB/RB/WR stack (though this has worked on FD in two of the six week for the FD Milly).

    Additionally, the Wash backfield has become more of 2-person committee now and McKissic and Gibson equally split total touches/targets last week at 14 each. Through 6 weeks, only Gibson (once) has scored more than 14.4 DK points.

    I’m just not seeing how a Wash 3-player stack smashes this week with so many red flags:
    1. There is a real risk they give Alex Smith some playing time against a team that lacks a pass rush. Up or down a couple scores, we likely should expect to see Smith. If you are playing Allen you want a close 1 score game.
    2. You have 2 RBs who will be cutting into each other’s upside

    Just play one offensive player (I’m leaning Terry as he has actually showed the upside) and maybe mix in the Defense on some lineups – it’s very unlikely a 2+ Wash offensive player stack yields enough points that they are a MUST own.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @33BeRad said...

    Hood, when you gonna make an appearance on Junior’s podcast?

    Lol good stuff, I wouldn’t wanna screw it up. His week 6 recap is short and sweet. Briefly touches on what he got right. Spends time dissecting where he went wrong. Lotta good nuggets crammed into a good listen. Even if he wasn’t the fruit of my loins, I’d enjoy his articles/pods.

    https://www.themishdfs.com/podcast-2/episode/2ff70ed5/the-mish-saves-the-fish-week-6-draftkings-nfl-recap

  • Lbb11

    Could someone post WR/CB side of the field stats for the week? Thanks!

  • Njsum1

    @emnj69 said...

    drake….

    setting up for a monster trap at high ownership . I swore in main slates he was dead to me but

    Drake’s a pretty easy underweight IMO. 🤷‍♂️

  • Alvance83

    @BIF said...

    Aaah the mid week craziness on here; people want to stack the Football team from Washington that has not score more than 20 points since week 1.

    Over their 6 games, they had 1 game where nobody hit 11 DK points; another game where nobody broke 15 DK points and another 2 where nobody got to 19 DK points.

    The only fantasy goodness this team has provided over 6 weeks has been:

    Week 2 vs Zona – McLaurin had 28.5 DK points but nobody else had above 12.72 points !!!

    Week 4 vs Ravens – Haskins, Gibson and McLaurin all hit between 21.8 and 24.8 points but that was because they threw it 45 times in a game they were down 2-3 scores in for the last 3Q.

    Also the QB-RB-WR stack very rarely ever works; especially on PPR friendly DK. Of the 6 DK Milly winners this year, not a single one has played the QB/RB/WR stack (though this has worked on FD in two of the six week for the FD Milly).

    Additionally, the Wash backfield has become more of 2-person committee now and McKissic and Gibson equally split total touches/targets last week at 14 each. Through 6 weeks, only Gibson (once) has scored more than 14.4 DK points.

    I’m just not seeing how a Wash 3-player stack smashes this week with so many red flags:
    1. There is a real risk they give Alex Smith some playing time against a team that lacks a pass rush. Up or down a couple scores, we likely should expect to see Smith. If you are playing Allen you want a close 1 score game.
    2. You have 2 RBs who will be cutting into each other’s upside

    Just play one offensive player (I’m leaning Terry as he has actually showed the upside) and maybe mix in the Defense on some lineups – it’s very unlikely a 2+ Wash offensive player stack yields.

    Talked me off the cliff! Thx Bif

  • BIF

    @Alvance83 said...

    Talked me off the cliff! Thx Bif

    I think you can for sure play one guy from Wash but there simply isn’t enough goodness to go around where you NEED more than 1. Just a lot more risk than reward on everyone other than Terry or the DST and I don’t really love that as a stack because you want WRs from high scoring closer games which don’t help the DST scoring unless you are getting a pick, fumble and some sacks.

  • MattyK1981

    Some mid-week thoughts on the early slate:

    > Is the NO run game stack a thing this week? Kamara $7900 and Murray $4800 so you’d realistically need 50pts+ combined for it to be really competitive …. maybe it’s as close to being a thing as it has been in a while?
    > AJG @ $4300 feels right vs CLE
    > Allen + Diggs stack will likely be my core stack for any single/3-max tourneys
    > Firkser at $3000 is going to be hella-owned due to recency bias and roster flexibility, but it doesn’t mean I want to play him vs PIT

    I still have faith in Brees to hand the ball off and throw within 5yds of the line of scrimmage!

  • AdamBski

    🔐 in A-ARON Jones

    Stack Justin Herbert with Keenan Allen, any need to run it back with Chark??

    Is Gurley the play for ATL this week??? Both Ridley and Julio ate last week so I’m leaning Gurley this week.

  • livetorace17

    My gosh. TNF showdown on FanDuel is dirty.

    DJax $8,000
    Alshon $6,000
    Scott $6,500
    Rodgers $6,500

    I guess the question becomes: what happens to Fulgham and Ward?

  • Njsum1

    @MattyK1981 said...

    > Firkser at $3000 is going to be hella-owned due to recency bias and roster flexibility, but it doesn’t mean I want to play him vs PIT

    Only if Jonnu misses. And I’d play him against Pitt if Jonnu is out for 3k. TE’s get involved versus Pitt Def.

  • Njsum1

    Chris Carson seems like a guy I want to be overweight this week.

  • winnerchickendinner

    @livetorace17 said...

    My gosh. TNF showdown on FanDuel is dirty.

    DJax $8,000
    Alshon $6,000
    Scott $6,500
    Rodgers $6,500

    I guess the question becomes: what happens to Fulgham and Ward?

    Alshon not playing and TEs don’t really get much involved vs the giants so not playing rodgers. So that leaves the three wideouts with scott and probably depends on how Jackson looks after injury. Would still play Fulgham.

  • winnerchickendinner

    @Njsum1 said...

    Only if Jonnu misses. And I’d play him against Pitt if Jonnu is out for 3k. TE’s get involved versus Pitt Def.

    And Pit lost one of their best linebackers too which is a boost.

  • MattyK1981

    He’ll definitely attract a bunch of free square attention should Jonnu miss this Sunday that’s for sure. Even so, PIT has played 5 games thus far and has allowed a combined 20-218-1 to TEs which is about 9 fpts/game so I’ll be looking elsewhere.

  • yisman

    @bignish said...

    They took Haskins the year prior, why would they bail on their 1st round investment from 2019 that quickly? I get that Haskins is now likely a sunk cost but they can always retool with another 1st round QB selection in 2021.

    Chase Young is a generational defensive player.

    I agree.

    Teams overdraft QB like crazy and often pay the price.

    QBs all the time go #1 when they’re probably not even a top 10 talent in the draft.

    Winston-Mariota going 1-2 was insane.

  • thenefariousone

    https://g.espncdn.com/s/ffldraftkit/20/NFLDK2020_CS_WRCBchartWeek7stop.pdf?addata=2020=WRCB_chtsht_week7stop_xxx

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @thenefariousone said...

    https://g.espncdn.com/s/ffldraftkit/20/NFLDK2020_CS_WRCBchartWeek7stop.pdf?addata=2020=WRCB_chtsht_week7stop_xxx

    Thank you

  • TubScout

    I’ve scouted CFB for a long time. I can tell you NFL teams can’t evaluate QB’s with good accuracy. They panic and throw darts. 9/10 the qb doesn’t make the team, the team makes the qb. Front office and fans pressure teams into forcing QB picks.

    When you have a High Draft Pick, you have got to take the best sure fire player. But they don’t and often unload massive draft capital that sets the teams back even further. I can’t recall the last time I had more than 3 draft worthy QB’s on my big board. And often my big board is less than 65 players. QB is very difficult to forecast with so many variables and subjective influences.

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