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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, October 18th
    8:20 PM EST : Denver ( 5 ) at Cleveland ( -5 ) —- T: 44

    Sunday, October 24th
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -4.5 ) at Tennessee ( 4.5 ) —- T: 56
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( (Pick) ) at Miami ( (Pick) ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 10 ) at Green Bay ( -10 ) —- T: 49
    1:00 PM EST : NY Jets ( 7 ) at New England ( -7 ) —- T: 42.5
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 6.5 ) at Baltimore ( -6.5 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( -2.5 ) at NY Giants ( 2.5 ) —- T: 44
    4:05 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 3 ) at Las Vegas ( -3 ) —- T: 48
    4:05 PM EST : Detroit ( 15.5 ) at LA Rams ( -15.5 ) —- T: 50
    4:25 PM EST : Houston ( 17 ) at Arizona ( -17 ) —- T: 48
    4:25 PM EST : Chicago ( 13 ) at Tampa Bay ( -13 ) —- T: 48
    8:20 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 4 ) at San Francisco ( -4 ) —- T: 45

    Monday, October 25th
    8:15 PM EST : New Orleans ( -3.5 ) at Seattle ( 3.5 ) —- T: 44

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • theghostofveebs

    @SRQ750 said...

    Hill was hurt last week too, and it didn’t bother him much.

    He delivered something like 1.5X versus a weak defense. Tyreek is not Tyreek atm.

  • mnstone14

    @theghostofveebs said...

    He delivered something like 1.5X versus a weak defense. Tyreek is not Tyreek atm.

    well this is wrong. he was 2.5x and missed i believe two drives due to injury. Not really directed at you, but when it comes to such easy information to check, i wonder why some people get it wrong fairly often.

  • BIF

    Just created the Week 7 Happy-er Meal

    NFL Sun 12:00 PM CDT – $3 entry

    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/draftteam/116171378

  • blakevoiles

    @SRQ750 said...

    Waddle and Bateman only real value I see for WRs.

    Bateman and Jefferson/Jackson against the Lions could be worth it.

  • fitz2k2

    @SRQ750 said...

    Waddle and Bateman only real value I see for WRs.

    Mack hollins?

  • whodat2

    Nuke against his former team. That is all.

  • squidkill

    @mnstone14 said...

    well this is wrong. he was 2.5x and missed i believe two drives due to injury. Not really directed at you, but when it comes to such easy information to check, i wonder why some people get it wrong fairly often.

    re-watched entire game… came in and out on a few series and also didnt come out right after half… Lower body injuries on speed WR can be troublesome

  • winnerchickendinner

    @866 said...

    Patterson is not playable at 6200. He just cannot keep up what he’s been doing. Not enough volume. Have to like Henry vs KC but again, teams now they will try to smother him and make Tanny beat you.

    I’d take him and his around six targets a game as a pass catching back over the running backs below him besides Swift.

    Jacobs continues to have a low floor along with not being able to take advantage of good matchups ( see LAC and their piss poor run defense game )

    Hubbard has been inconsistent

    Gibson is banged up

    Counting on D. Williams (KC) to be poor running the ball and getting two red zone TDs again?

    Harris(NE) barley has a floor and doesn’t catch passes

    Edmonds/Conner timeshare

    Bears backs and Booker(NYG) not that great of a matchup .

    Mckissic possibly but his targets have been inconsistent.

    And plus its Miami. Fournette had 4 for 43 yards catching for about 10 yards a catch and Patterson has been really explosive this year
    .

  • 808state

    Dante Pettis got a ridiculous 11 targets out of nowhere and he’s still minimum. I’m guessing that means he’s above John Ross now so if the Giants are without Kenny G, Slayton, and Toney then he should be out there again.

  • theghostofveebs

    @mnstone14 said...

    well this is wrong. he was 2.5x and missed i believe two drives due to injury. Not really directed at you, but when it comes to such easy information to check, i wonder why some people get it wrong fairly often.

    my bad / I was being lazy. I play on FD which is half ppr, so 2.6x on draft kings and 2.1x on FD (not 1.5).

    my fundamental point was that he was and remains dealing with a lingering issue and week 6 was certainly not the ceiling game people were expecting.

  • joephoto

    @theghostofveebs said...

    my fundamental point was that he was and remains dealing with a lingering issue

    I am fading T. Hill because of this.
    Cooper Kupp has been the WR I pay up for.

  • ifthethunder

    Looking at Thursday night now. And there’s nothing but question marks. On a Wednesday. Play light or maybe an edge will be found?
    ~

  • DickyBigtop

    I think I’m the only person in fantasy world waiting for the C-Pat shoe to drop and

    He has 21% of his 9 year career TDs in 5 games this year..

    I’ll pass and cut my nose off and be fine with it.

  • BIF

    @DickyBigtop said...

    I think I’m the only person in fantasy world waiting for the C-Pat shoe to drop and

    He has 21% of his 9 year career TDs in 5 games this year..

    I’ll pass and cut my nose off and be fine with it.

    So you are comparing his career when he was primarily a kick returner and 3rd down 4-or-5 WR set pass catcher to those of his positional change to a potential every down RB and pass catching 3rd Down RB with high usage and playing 40% of snaps (59% of offensive snaps last game).

    He’s going to have some games where he doesn’t hit value but so does every other player. CPatt has a much better floor than comparable salary guys like Harris, Latavius, Chuba knowing he’s going to catch 5 or more passes on 6+ targets a game plus he gets 7-14 carries a game and also has kickoff return duties.

    He’s not an all-in play but he has a good floor and we know his upside – I think his ceiling is limited a bit now with Pitts development and break through game but CPatt is still a key part of that offense.

  • DickyBigtop

    Are you saying Minnesota, Raiders, NE, and Chicago were all incompetent in valuing and using CP’s talent to its highest ability?

  • SRQ750

    @theghostofveebs said...

    He delivered something like 1.5X versus a weak defense. Tyreek is not Tyreek atm.

    He went for 9-76-1 on 12 targets.

  • SRQ750

    @winnerchickendinner said...

    I’d take him and his around six targets a game as a pass catching back over the running backs below him besides Swift.

    Jacobs continues to have a low floor along with not being able to take advantage of good matchups ( see LAC and their piss poor run defense game )

    Hubbard has been inconsistent

    Gibson is banged up

    Counting on D. Williams (KC) to be poor running the ball and getting two red zone TDs again?

    Harris(NE) barley has a floor and doesn’t catch passes

    Edmonds/Conner timeshare

    Bears backs and Booker(NYG) not that great of a matchup .

    Mckissic possibly but his targets have been inconsistent.

    And plus its Miami. Fournette had 4 for 43 yards catching for about 10 yards a catch and Patterson has been really explosive this year
    .

    Excellent points.

    I was all in on Henderson last week and will be again this week.

    I’d argue Jacobs’ floor is higher than you think with an opportunity market share the last 3 weeks higher than anyone not named Henry or Mixon. Well, probably a few others too. Haha. But he’s getting opportunities, but I hate the Raiders offense overall.

    Gibson’s shin is getting worse and McKissic’s usage in the passing game makes him intriguing for GPP.

    Williams usage rate since CEH has been hurt has huge. Still, I see KC throwing the ball all over the Titans’ banged up secondary.

    I’m a little higher on Harris this week than you. He’s getting goal line work each week. His snap count was down last week but I think it was because he got banged up at the end of the game.

    Edmonds in a smash spot this week but he doesn’t get goal line work. In a blow out last week the Cards went to Conner for the entire second half. Because of this and this goal line work, Conner may also be intriguing in GPP.

    Herbert (Bears) and Booker (Giants) have no chance this week.

    Hubbard getting tons of work. Certainly no CM, but he’s near Henry and Mixon market share opportunity the last two weeks.

    Fournette should run wild this weekend. They’re feeding him the ball.

    Mike Davis may be worth looking at GPP this week. Miami horrible against the run. Atlanta may not have to pass to Paterson as much out of the backfield this week.

    Just my $.02. I assure you it’s not even worth that.

  • superjon

    Leaving a million $ on the table in showdown tomorrow.

  • Agent47

    Looking at defenses this week for the main slate on DK, I’m not sure how Arizona is only $3,100 as a 17-point favorite at home against the lowly Texans. The Cardinals D is 5th in adjusted sack rate while the Texans are 20th in adjusted sack rate allowed with a -3 turnover differential. Normally, I try to find defenses under $3k that I like, but Arizona is way too cheap for this matchup IMO.

    As for defenses under $3k, I like Baltimore as nearly a TD favorite at home against Cincinnati. The Ravens are middle of the pack (14th) in adjusted sack rate while the Bengals O-line is 24th in adjusted sack rate. I also don’t hate the Giants at $2,500. Yes, they’re 3-point underdogs, but they’re at home and Carolina has lost 3 in a row and will still be without CMC. The Panthers also have a -4 turnover differential and are 24th in adjusted sack rate allowed.

  • Agent47

    For TEs, I was all-in on Seals-Jones last week, and I’ll be heavy on him this week as well at only $3,700. The past 2 weeks, he has played basically 100% of the offensive snaps with Logan Thomas out (99% in week 5 if you want to get technical haha). GB is middle of the pack in FPPG allowed to TEs with 13.7. Washington should be playing from behind and forced to throw, which will only mean more opportunities for him.

    If I knew for sure that Ertz would be ready to go by Sunday with his new team, I’d have some shares for sure. He’s in a dream spot at $3,900 against Houston. The Texans are giving up the 4th most FPPG to TEs at 18.7, and they’re tied with the Chargers and Eagles for the most TDs allowed to TEs with 5. The danger here of course is the huge spread limiting how much the Cardinals will have to air it out.

    Goedert is also on my radar if he can get off the C-19 list. With Ertz gone, he’s the undisputed #1 TE in Philly now, and the matchup against LV is a good one. They’ve given up 4 TDs to TEs this season and 17.6 FPPG, which is 7th most.

  • SRQ750

    @Agent47 said...

    For TEs, I was all-in on Seals-Jones last week, and I’ll be heavy on him this week as well at only $3,700. The past 2 weeks, he has played basically 100% of the offensive snaps with Logan Thomas out (99% in week 5 if you want to get technical haha). GB is middle of the pack in FPPG allowed to TEs with 13.7. Washington should be playing from behind and forced to throw, which will only mean more opportunities for him.

    If I knew for sure that Ertz would be ready to go by Sunday with his new team, I’d have some shares for sure. He’s in a dream spot at $3,900 against Houston. The Texans are giving up the 4th most FPPG to TEs at 18.7, and they’re tied with the Chargers and Eagles for the most TDs allowed to TEs with 5. The danger here of course is the huge spread limiting how much the Cardinals will have to air it out.

    Goedert is also on my radar if he can get off the C-19 list. With Ertz gone, he’s the undisputed #1 TE in Philly now, and the matchup against LV is a good one. They’ve given up 4 TDs to TEs this season and 17.6 FPPG, which is 7th most.

    I only play FanDuel but I like these picks and your commentary. A few other value type of picks this week in my opinion on FanDuel are Hunter Henry, C.J. Uzomah and Cole Kmet.

  • ifthethunder

    Wow. Was just sweating my showdown entries at the last minute. Then I noticed that the game is 24 hours from now.
    ~

  • squidkill

    @ifthethunder said...

    Wow. Was just sweating my showdown entries at the last minute. Then I noticed that the game is 24 hours from now.
    ~

    hey pal, there is a 800 number somewhere, if u ever need to talk to somebody

    just throwing it out there

  • odanny

    @squidkill said...

    hey pal, there is a 800 number somewhere, if u ever need to talk to somebody

    just throwing it out there

  • theIrrigator

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