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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, October 19th
    8:25 PM EST : Seattle ( -6.5 ) at San Francisco ( 6.5 ) —- T: 41.5

    Sunday, October 25th
    9:30 AM EST : Buffalo ( -6 ) at Jacksonville ( 6 ) —- T: 42
    1:00 PM EST : Minnesota ( -2.5 ) at Detroit ( 2.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( -2 ) at Kansas City ( 2 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 3.5 ) at Washington ( -3.5 ) —- T: 43
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( 5.5 ) at St Louis ( -5.5 ) —- T: 41.5
    1:00 PM EST : NY Jets ( 9 ) at New England ( -9 ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( -3.5 ) at Tennessee ( 3.5 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : New Orleans ( 4.5 ) at Indianapolis ( -4.5 ) —- T: 52
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( 4 ) at Miami ( -4 ) —- T: 44.5
    4:05 PM EST : Oakland ( 4 ) at San Diego ( -4 ) —- T: 47
    4:25 PM EST : Dallas ( 3.5 ) at NY Giants ( -3.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    8:30 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 3.5 ) at Carolina ( -3.5 ) —- T: 46.5

    Monday, October 26th
    8:30 PM EST : Baltimore ( +7.5 ) at Arizona ( -7.5 ) —- T: 48.0

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for today’s games. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. Please make it a point to say if you’re talking about Cash or GPP options

  • ssmfour

    @aylsg said...

    As a follow-up question… Is there a rough average number of lineups recommended per contest? Taking Sunday as an example, I rolled with a couple Tannehill/Landry stacks but some duds made them fizzle out. In looking at my other lineups, I had most of the right pieces but not properly put together. Is that just the nature of the beast or do I need to have quite a few tweaked versions each of a handful of base lineups?

    Depends how much risk you’re willing to take. There’s an almost infinite number of possible lineups, so you can never cover all your bases. I’ve been making about 40 lineups with anywhere from 20-60% exposure to the players scattered throughout them. It’s worked really well so far (fingers crossed, I feel like it’s gotta end soon), but obviously even just one player being a dud has a negative impact on quite a few entries. The more entries you make the more possible upside if you were onto the right players and downside if you weren’t

  • ramagosr

    • 873

      RG Overall Ranking

    Yeah, I’ve been thinking and looking. Often you find a situation where you’re well into the money in a monster tourney (i.e. 212 is gonna cash in milly maker, but that 212 is currently only getting you $60 for your $20 in 5800th place out of 341k entries. If Fitz goes off and several hundred people above also have him and I move up to say 1600th place I get $100 instead of $60. If I switch to Smith or Floyd and they score 10 to Fitz’s 30 I’ll maybe drop from cashing $60 to cashing $40 with my 222. But if the reverse happens and Smith puts up 30 and Fitz has an off night for 10, maybe I can crack into 700th place and get $250 with my 242 since they’re much lower owned. The same logic makes me leave Fitz in when I’m sitting in 9th in a league tourney with 500 entrants or 150th in the $7 hitch and go out of 8200 people as the downside of dropping is more substantial there and the upside still pretty decent if only 15% of people above me have the same guy. At least that’s my thought at this point. If it seems flawed someone let me know so I can not screw up ;)

  • aylsg

    @ssmfour said...

    Depends how much risk you’re willing to take. There’s an almost infinite number of possible lineups, so you can never cover all your bases. I’ve been making about 40 lineups with anywhere from 20-60% exposure to the players scattered throughout them. It’s worked really well so far (fingers crossed, I feel like it’s gotta end soon), but obviously even just one player being a dud has a negative impact on quite a few entries. The more entries you make the more possible upside if you were onto the right players and downside if you weren’t

    That is what I needed to hear. I think I’m headed in the right direction but haven’t had enough LUs nor the correct thought process on exposure. Just need to stop dipping my toe and jump on in!

  • aylsg

    @ssmfour said...

    Depends how much risk you’re willing to take. There’s an almost infinite number of possible lineups, so you can never cover all your bases. I’ve been making about 40 lineups with anywhere from 20-60% exposure to the players scattered throughout them. It’s worked really well so far (fingers crossed, I feel like it’s gotta end soon), but obviously even just one player being a dud has a negative impact on quite a few entries. The more entries you make the more possible upside if you were onto the right players and downside if you weren’t

    That is what I needed to hear. I think I’m headed in the right direction but haven’t had enough LUs nor the correct thought process on exposure. Just need to stop dipping my toe and jump on in!

  • aylsg

    @ssmfour said...

    Depends how much risk you’re willing to take. There’s an almost infinite number of possible lineups, so you can never cover all your bases. I’ve been making about 40 lineups with anywhere from 20-60% exposure to the players scattered throughout them. It’s worked really well so far (fingers crossed, I feel like it’s gotta end soon), but obviously even just one player being a dud has a negative impact on quite a few entries. The more entries you make the more possible upside if you were onto the right players and downside if you weren’t

    That is what I needed to hear. I think I’m headed in the right direction but haven’t had enough LUs nor the correct thought process on exposure. Just need to stop dipping my toe and jump on in!

  • giantsfan12345

    i love the pivot to steve smith, ravens will be down and going though the air.

  • Turn2gold

    @econbrah11 said...

    I made the biggest mistake yesterday in choosing the Steelers’ D instead of the Rams’ D. Costed me 23 pts fml

    Yep I fell for the Steelers D too

  • Turn2gold

    @econbrah11 said...

    I made the biggest mistake yesterday in choosing the Steelers’ D instead of the Rams’ D. Costed me 23 pts fml

    Yep I fell for the Steelers D too

  • Ryan_13

    Anyone playing in any of the Mon-Thurs Primetime GPP on Fanduel? If so what would be some big sleepers? I’m thinking Tannehill and landry and amendola added.

  • Ryan_13

    Anyone playing in any of the Mon-Thurs Primetime GPP on Fanduel? If so what would be some big sleepers? I’m thinking Tannehill and landry and amendola added.

  • UnregisteredUser

    For those considering pivoting from Fitzgerald tonight:

    Current O/U: 50…. Current Spread: AZ -10…. Cardinals Implied toal: 30…. Ravens Implied total: 20.

    DvP vs WR: https://rotogrinders.com/team-stats/nfl-allowed?site=draftkings&range=season&position=3

    Arizona D is middle of the pack vs WR. Baltimore D vs WR is 2nd worst in the NFL.

    Positional DvP rankings (i.e. Cardinals vs WR1, or Ravens vs WR2): http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

    Arizona is very strong against WR1’s and WR2’s. Baltimore is bad against all WR’s.

    Thursday FD Ownership percentage, and then Targets by week:

    Larry Fitzgerald: 28% owned… Targets: 8, 9, 11, 9, 7, 10. Definitely has the highest floor tonight.

    John Brown: 18%…. Targets: 7, 5, 5, 10, 4, 14.

    Michael Floyd: Couldn’t find Ownership%, probably low…. Targets: 1, 1, 5, 7, 3, 8.

    Steve Smith: 8.2%…. Targets: 2, 10, 13, 4, 7. Semi-meaningless given injuries.

    Kamar Aiken: 0.5%…. Targets: 1, 5, 0, 5, 4, 3.

  • Drayzen

    @Ryan_13 said...

    Anyone playing in any of the Mon-Thurs Primetime GPP on Fanduel? If so what would be some big sleepers? I’m thinking Tannehill and landry and amendola added.

    I am. WR is very tough to choose from. I personally kept it to Fitz/Smith/Matthews….for now.

  • Ryan_13

    I’m at Fitz/Floyd/Landry
    But feel like Amendola could be in for another big game. Miami did a pretty solid job shutting down Hopkins.

  • vet0307

    Thanks now i wanna go back to floyd lmao. I dont think brown is gonna play but its not confirmed

  • eronau

    does anyone know if forsett is playing

  • BobGrinder

    @UnregisteredUser said...

    For those considering pivoting from Fitzgerald tonight:

    Current O/U: 50…. Current Spread: AZ -10…. Cardinals Implied toal: 30…. Ravens Implied total: 20.

    DvP vs WR: https://rotogrinders.com/team-stats/nfl-allowed?site=draftkings&range=season&position=3

    Arizona D is middle of the pack vs WR. Baltimore D vs WR is 2nd worst in the NFL.

    Positional DvP rankings (i.e. Cardinals vs WR1, or Ravens vs WR2): http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

    Arizona is very strong against WR1’s and WR2’s. Baltimore is bad against all WR’s.

    Thursday FD Ownership percentage, and then Targets by week:

    Larry Fitzgerald: 28% owned… Targets: 8, 9, 11, 9, 7, 10. Definitely has the highest floor tonight.

    John Brown: 18%…. Targets: 7, 5, 5, 10, 4, 14.

    Michael Floyd: Couldn’t find Ownership%, probably low…. Targets: 1, 1, 5, 7, 3, 8.

    Steve Smith: 8.2%…. Targets: 2, 10, 13, 4, 7. Semi-meaningless given injuries.

    Kamar Aiken: 0.5%…. Targets: 1, 5, 0, 5, 4, 3.

    Floyd is listed at 2.7% on another site.

  • vet0307

    Screw it, going floyd.

  • Drayzen

    Maybe Fitz/Floyd/Amendola.

    Oh the choices….

  • Ryan_13

    Floyd has gotta see some targets,especially if Brown is out. Tonight could easily be the Floyd show.

  • deboer2012

    155.8 with Palmer and Fitzgerald going in a 57K entry tourney.. Would it make more sense to bet on the Palmer-Fitz bust and bet on off chance Flacco-Smith go wayyy off and shoot me up in the rankings? Or go the cookie-cutter route and take Palmer-Fitz and hope I can jump enough 0/60 PMR guys to get in the money? Thanks!

  • B_rock74

    Cash Game Question (FD)….If the current moneyline/cashing point is 125 and there is a game like this with high ownership how could could that rise for cash games 300/600 players. I am sitting at 135 and wondering if that is still a safe spot. I figure I am ok with Floyd going but wondering if it is rare to see these contest jump up drastically at this point.

  • SirMarkis

    @Ryan_13 said...

    Floyd has gotta see some targets,especially if Brown is out. Tonight could easily be the Floyd show.

    I also kind of feel a lot of players will have that same outlook and switch to Floyd if Brown is out just to try and get ahead. If Brown is out, I may switch to Floyd.However, I did put Fitz in the flex position in several line ups. I kind of feel like Baltimore will want to limit Arizona possession and want to run the ball quite a bit. It’s very possible Forsett has a good game tonight.

  • Ryan_13

    @SirMarkis said...

    I also kind of feel a lot of players will have that same outlook and switch to Floyd if Brown is out just to try and get ahead. If Brown is out, I may switch to Floyd.However, I did put Fitz in the flex position in several line ups. I kind of feel like Baltimore will want to limit Arizona possession and want to run the ball quite a bit. It’s very possible Forsett has a good game tonight.

    That is a really good point. Would you roll the dice with Dion Lewis playing for NE or go Forsett tonight?

  • deboer2012

    @SirMarkis said...

    I also kind of feel a lot of players will have that same outlook and switch to Floyd if Brown is out just to try and get ahead. If Brown is out, I may switch to Floyd.However, I did put Fitz in the flex position in several line ups. I kind of feel like Baltimore will want to limit Arizona possession and want to run the ball quite a bit. It’s very possible Forsett has a good game tonight.

    Wish I would have put Fitz in the Flex in my tourney.. I’d take the undervalued flier Forsett to try to jump a couple hundred people if this game doesn’t go like most of us think it will

  • cowboy02

    Playing in a mon -thurs GPP any thoughts on blount against Miami D? And any news on brown tonight ?

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