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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 10/24
    8:20 PM EST : Washington ( 16 ) at Minnesota ( -16 ) —- T: 41

    Sunday, 10/27
    1:00 PM EST : NY Giants ( 7 ) at Detroit ( -7 ) —- T: 48.5
    1:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 1.5 ) at Buffalo ( -1.5 ) —- T: 42
    1:00 PM EST : Seattle ( -3.5 ) at Atlanta ( 3.5 ) —- T: 54
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 13 ) at LA Rams ( -13 ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : NY Jets ( 4.5 ) at Jacksonville ( -4.5 ) —- T: 41
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( 8.5 ) at New Orleans ( -8.5 ) —- T: 48.5
    1:00 PM EST : LA Chargers ( 5 ) at Chicago ( -5 ) —- T: 40
    1:00 PM EST : Denver ( 6 ) at Indianapolis ( -6 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 2.5 ) at Tennessee ( -2.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    4:05 PM EST : Carolina ( 5.5 ) at San Francisco ( -5.5 ) —- T: 41.5
    4:25 PM EST : Oakland ( 6.5 ) at Houston ( -6.5 ) —- T: 50.5
    4:25 PM EST : Cleveland ( 10.5 ) at New England ( -10.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    8:20 PM EST : Green Bay ( -3 ) at Kansas City ( 3 ) —- T: 48

    Monday, 10/28
    8:15 PM EST : Miami ( 14.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -14.5 ) —- T: 43

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • mike42

    @Randallus said...

    Mike, I get what you’re saying and you make good points. I’ll probably fade on Carson for the most part after your comment. Still want him in a lineup or two.

    That said, look at the Falcons schedule. Of the seven games, they’ve played two offenses with strong RB play (Vikings and Cards). Cook did well against them and DJ too. However, DJ did most of his damage in the passing game. The main reason I’ll likely fade Carson a bit is because he isn’t much of a pass catching back and I think Seattle won’t need to throw much in this game.

    I think the main issue with ATL not giving up production in the passing game to RB’s is their secondary is awful and their pass rush is nonexistent, so QB’s have time to throw downfield to wide open WR’s. There just isn’t a need to dump it off. There is at least a 50% chance this game isn’t competitive too, and it that case, I think Carrol makes up for the 2 snaps he game Penny last game. Carson has been a true bell-cow but this would be the ideal spot to rest him a bit. In fact, Penny stacked with the SEA D makes a bit of sense. If this game blows out, odds are halfway decent that both would do well. Penny has that big play upside you want on a fast track, Carson needs volume and this sets upr for a game where he probably doesn’t get it.

  • mike42

    @Bnett2210 said...

    If Kerryon doesn’t play like most are assuming, would there be enough value with Ty Johnson or Mckissic, or just a fade?

    You want TY Johnson and it’s not particularly close. He’s going to get early-down work Vs a D that just gave Edmonds a GPP winning week. Also, you have to assume that a pretty good Det team will bounce back at home and beat a pretty bad Giants team. It’s early, but I like TY and I imagine his ownership won’t be that high. I like SB too as long as the injuries at DT for Det stay the same. He’s going to be chalk and TY could be a nice pivot because nobody is going to play both.

    I just read how ARZ ran outside a lot and the Giants LB’s took poor angles because they suck. The Giants are notorious for having bad LB’s. That’s the way to attack NYB, on the outside, and it’s felt like teams have been trying to run it right at them more times than not. Patricia is smart and TY is a speedster, I think they mimic ARZ’s game plan and that should be a good thing for a speedster like TY.

  • Falconsfan101

    @Randallus said...

    Mike, I get what you’re saying and you make good points. I’ll probably fade on Carson for the most part after your comment. Still want him in a lineup or two.

    That said, look at the Falcons schedule. Of the seven games, they’ve played two offenses with strong RB play (Vikings and Cards). Cook did well against them and DJ too. However, DJ did most of his damage in the passing game. The main reason I’ll likely fade Carson a bit is because he isn’t much of a pass catching back and I think Seattle won’t need to throw much in this game.

    Falcons were at full strength defensively and got manhandled by the Vikings sub-par line. It was awful to watch. Cook and Mat both rushed over 5 ypc with ease.

    Since then, as Mike pointed out, they’ve done a good job of limiting RBs up the middle, however…it is a mixed bag. Derrick Henry had a 100 yard day against them and we know the Titans line isn’t making any holes.

    Schaub is most likely going to start this weekend (lol…) so the Seahawks should easily control the clock in this game. Should be lots of 3 and outs. Defense will be gassed like they were in the Vikings game from the offense not sustaining drives.

    Schaub probably starting, Ito out, Freeman probably gonna be suspended for his punch (but really, what are you supposed to do when Donald is holding you in the air like a toddler?), so I see no way the Falcons sustain drives. Seahawks are still a run offense, and Pete has shown that he will run Carson into a brick wall time and time again.

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Falconsfan101 said...

    Falcons were at full strength defensively and got manhandled by the Vikings sub-par line. It was awful to watch. Cook and Mat both rushed over 5 ypc with ease.

    Since then, as Mike pointed out, they’ve done a good job of limiting RBs up the middle, however…it is a mixed bag. Derrick Henry had a 100 yard day against them and we know the Titans line isn’t making any holes.

    Schaub is most likely going to start this weekend (lol…) so the Seahawks should easily control the clock in this game. Should be lots of 3 and outs. Defense will be gassed like they were in the Vikings game from the offense not sustaining drives.

    Schaub probably starting, Ito out, Freeman probably gonna be suspended for his punch (but really, what are you supposed to do when Donald is holding you in the air like a toddler?), so I see no way the Falcons sustain drives. Seahawks are still a run offense, and Pete has shown that he will run Carson into a brick wall time and time again.

    Schaub will have one less weapon now. Sanu to the Patriots. :(

  • fitz2k2

    Sanu has been traded to patriots for 2nd round pick. So i guess don’t want sanders nor aj green soon

  • Falconsfan101

    @bhdevault said...

    Schaub will have one less weapon now. Sanu to the Patriots. :(

    Wow…I love me some Sanu, but the Falcons cap situation is horrific next year, so I understand I guess. Not really sure where he fits on the Pats offense though. To give up a 2nd they must be going to utilize him heavy…Pats don’t trade picks for players that high usually. Maybe wildcat stuff to give their offense a wrinkle. Guess the brotherhood is getting blown up for a mini-rebuild. Can’t call it a full one when a teams cap situation i so terrible. Get rid of Beasley next. Quinn put his cart with Beasley last offseason, and it has back fired badly. Let’s put someone who can rush the QB (with an explosive first step) and drop them in to coverage. Boggles my mind. He needs to be a situational pass rusher if anything…need to keep him fresh and not injured. Frame is too slender to be beat up playing run defense. Sanu is a high character leader. Physical as hell too.

  • keephustlincuz

    @bhdevault said...

    Schaub will have one less weapon now. Sanu to the Patriots. :(

    Lots of targets for Hooper.

  • Falconsfan101

    More I think about the trade, Sanu is a great run blocker and physical. May be a trade to help their run game in 2 WR sets with the loss of all their TEs. BB has wanted Sanu for years, so…sure they have a good reason. F’n Pats man…28-3 us and then give us a 2nd rounder as an apology lol.

  • superjon

    @billythekidcowboysheat said...

    I know it sounds ridiculous especially right now with jets getting dismantled, think im going with sunday in foxboro

    We’re now in week 8. Here are a list of things that if you follow will almost guarantee you don’t lose in GPPs (probably cash as well)

    1. DON’T play QBs on teams with implied totals under 19
    2. DON’T play any Dolphins players
    3. DON’T play any offense against the Patriots
    4. DON’T play the Beast of the Week (unless you MME)
    5. DON’T play defenses of teams that are big underdogs. This is more of a GPP thing. The salary relief in cash games can make them viable.

    Now you can do one or two of these things in a lineup and still possibly cash, but the more of them you do in a lineup, the more likely it is that it busts.

  • superjon

    Question

    What is a decent rate for cashing in GPPs (ignoring $ won/lost), and just looking at the actual percentage of times you cash?

  • mike42

    @Falconsfan101 said...

    Since then, as Mike pointed out, they’ve done a good job of limiting RBs up the middle, however…it is a mixed bag. Derrick Henry had a 100 yard day against them and we know the Titans line isn’t making any holes.

    It took 27 carries and he landed exactly on a 100 yds. When you look at the YPC Vs ATL since week 1, their D has held up SURPRISINGLY well. I don’t see a 25-30 touch game with a bunce of catches included. Too many ways for his volume to be limited

  • mike42

    @Falconsfan101 said...

    More I think about the trade, Sanu is a great run blocker and physical. May be a trade to help their run game in 2 WR sets with the loss of all their TEs. BB has wanted Sanu for years, so…sure they have a good reason. F’n Pats man…28-3 us and then give us a 2nd rounder as an apology lol.

    Second rd pick seems high, but honestly, with the Pats, it’s more like a third-round pick. The difference between a Miami third-round pick and a NE second-round pick is exactly 1 pick.

  • NDNole

    I have sony in all three of my lineups but I just don’t feel its the right move after last nights game. The guy scored 3 td’s and still only had 22 points.

    EDIT: Fortunately Ty Johnson value opened up. I don’t really like playing the cheap value fill in rb its just not my thing. But I will throw him in one in place of sony.

  • squidkill

    BB has had a huge RUTGERS boner for Sanu for awhile now- plus they get comp picks

  • NDNole

    Can Sea D be avoided with schaub at qb?

  • kdsdawg

    All coaches know the easiest way to beat Atlanta is through the air. Little to no resistance. Atlanta has given up 2 rushing TDs all year. SIXTEEN through the air. Play Russ. Maybe even just naked cause he gonna pass it to the open guy and that will be everyone they send out on a route. Who is the Seahawks burner? Huge day incoming.

    EDIT: Falcons allow 68.4 yards per game rushing.

  • NDNole

    Seems the consensus amongst some is going away from carson. Fine by me. He is a lock this week in my opinion. Stone cold lock.

  • BeerFinanceGuy

    Ran across some game-pace analysis for those of you interested: https://apps.rotoviz.com/pace/ You can adjust the filters under the Pace and Tendency Tables section.

  • deeebo

    @squidkill said...

    BB has had a huge RUTGERS boner for Sanu for awhile now- plus they get comp picks

    hey i went there! also i had an absolutely embarrassing week last week. been like this for a few weeks now. not like last year wheree i was winning a lot. just sucks.

  • RatedDAL

    I know the Pats 2nd rounder is basically a 3rd but that is still a way bigger return than I would have expected Sanu to fetch.

  • parrothead112

    Can the Oakland D get 8-10 points against Houston for 15K?

  • Brandon6385

    Season long question —

    I’ve got Freeman, Hooper, and Carson. Carson is a lock, I just hate playing two guys from ATL with Schaub at QB… Anyway to get away from Freeman?

  • deeebo

    what are your guys thoughts on the GB/KC game this week. who should i play from that game that you believe is a lock. i already locked in aaron jones at 7.6k against that kc run d. is this the only person? on FD. should i play travis kelce as he is so cheap on fd at 6.6k? or will the backup qb just suck? what about any of the packers receivers?

  • Dunzor

    @Brandon6385 said...

    Season long question —

    I’ve got Freeman, Hooper, and Carson. Carson is a lock, I just hate playing two guys from ATL with Schaub at QB… Anyway to get away from Freeman?

    Freeman might be staring at a suspension which would make your life easy, but if not then it becomes a tough choice. I would say in general I don’t expect the falcons to keep it close enough to be running a lot, so you would have to hope for Freeman to get a ton of dump offs, but since they just traded away Sanu that probably opens more targets for Hooper and he’d probably be the one I play on that offense since TE is a real weakness for SEA

  • Dunzor

    @deeebo said...

    what are your guys thoughts on the GB/KC game this week. who should i play from that game that you believe is a lock. i already locked in aaron jones at 7.6k against that kc run d. is this the only person? on FD. should i play travis kelce as he is so cheap on fd at 6.6k? or will the backup qb just suck? what about any of the packers receivers?

    I think Jones is the only one who’s a really strong play, but you could mix any of the pass catchers on either team if you want to take a shot. Since you tend to play mostly like a cash game I don’t think I would play anyone else from that game unless depending on price you decided to play the GB defense to pair with Jones

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