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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, October 28th
    8:20 PM EST : Green Bay ( 3.5 ) at Arizona ( -3.5 ) —- T: 53

    Sunday, October 31st
    1:00 PM EST : Miami ( 13.5 ) at Buffalo ( -13.5 ) —- T: 49.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 1.5 ) at Indianapolis ( -1.5 ) —- T: 49.5
    1:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( -3 ) at Detroit ( 3 ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 3 ) at Cleveland ( -3 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( 2.5 ) at Atlanta ( -2.5 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( -9.5 ) at NY Jets ( 9.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : LA Rams ( -14.5 ) at Houston ( 14.5 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( -4 ) at Chicago ( 4 ) —- T: 43
    4:05 PM EST : New England ( 5.5 ) at LA Chargers ( -5.5 ) —- T: 48
    4:05 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 3.5 ) at Seattle ( -3.5 ) —- T: 44
    4:25 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( -4.5 ) at New Orleans ( 4.5 ) —- T: 50.5
    4:25 PM EST : Washington ( 3.5 ) at Denver ( -3.5 ) —- T: 44
    8:20 PM EST : Dallas ( -1.5 ) at Minnesota ( 1.5 ) —- T: 53.5

    Monday, November 1st
    8:15 PM EST : NY Giants ( 9.5 ) at Kansas City ( -9.5 ) —- T: 52.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • davidsimsky

    Any reason Teddy doesn’t get 300 and 3 against WFT? Is that his ceiling?

  • Wsdm61987

    @HoodsFromTheWood said...

    Lol did you see Marshawn on the Peyton/Eli broadcast last night. Peyton almost had a heart attack when Lynch blurted out “what the fuck” after his “that shit” and triple Henny comments earlier. Love live TV

    I love Marshawn for unabashedly bein’ himself ALWAYS! As authentic as they come.

  • Wsdm61987

    @fleishmo6 said...

    Can anyone second some Boston Scott love this week?

    He might have a chance to make some noise in that game, but I’m lookin’ at D Swift.

  • superjon

    @davidsimsky said...

    Any reason Teddy doesn’t get 300 and 3 against WFT?

    He’s only done it 2x in his career.

  • Getty33

    @fleishmo6 said...

    Can anyone second some Boston Scott love this week?

    I was totally on board with Scott over the more hyped Gainwell, but now I read that the Eagles are going to activate plodding Jordan Howard for this week. That’s a curveball I didn’t see coming.

  • fleishmo6

    Definitely puts a curveball into that play
    Swift will run all over the Eagles this week
    He is a Philly boy, born and raised here
    Played at St. Joe’s Prep for high school

  • squidkill

    @fleishmo6 said...

    Definitely puts a curveball into that play
    Swift will run all over the Eagles this week
    He is a Philly boy, born and raised here
    Played at St. Joe’s Prep for high school

    Oh I’m sure the Lions coaches could give 2 frying pans about that ,…… and he will wallow with a limited snap count

    Unfortunately

  • superjon

    With Adams and Lazard out on Thursday and the Cardinals even bigger favorites.

    Why would I not be surprised if the Showdown winner stacked 4 Packers and ran Murray naked.

  • odanny

    @fleishmo6 said...

    Definitely puts a curveball into that play
    Swift will run all over the Eagles this week
    He is a Philly boy, born and raised here
    Played at St. Joe’s Prep for high school

    He’s second only to Hockenson in target share (18% vs. 20%) and had 10 targets last week. He’s gotten at least 5 targets in every game. Knowing he’ll be fired up and Detroit has a chance at its first win, he seems a great play this week

  • squidkill

    @superjon said...

    With Adams and Lazard out on Thursday and the Cardinals even bigger favorites.

    Why would I not be surprised if the Showdown winner stacked 4 Packers and ran Murray naked.

    because Murr hasnt been running much lately and is pass rate has ballooned

  • Agent47

    For the main slate on DK, I’m gonna be a homer and say that my Bears are my favorite defense this week at $2,700. But actually, there are plenty of other reasons why I like them other than just being my favorite team. They boast the top adjusted sack rate in the league and lead the league with 21 sacks through 7 games. The 49ers O-line is middle of the road (14th) in adjusted sack rate but I like Da Bears chances of bringing Jimmy G down a few times this week. The 49ers also boast the league’s 3rd worst turnover differential at -7 as Jimmy G and Lance have combined for a league-leading 11 picks thrown this year. This game has the lowest O/U of the slate by about 3 points, which isn’t a surprise given their offenses are both bottom-10 in situation-neutral pace of play (26th for the Bears and 23rd for the 49ers). I might have to look away when the anemic Bears offense takes the field, but I think the defense can and will make some DFS-worthy plays.

    I also like the Falcons as 3-point favorites at home against a Panthers team mired in a 4-game losing streak that just got held to 3 points by the Giants. They’ll still be without CMC this week, which won’t help matters for them. They have a -5 turnover differential, and their adjusted sack rate allowed ranks 29th. Unfortunately, the Falcons have not had a great pass rush as their adjusted sack rate is ranked 28th. That’s the main knock against them for me this week.

    Lastly, if you’re looking for a really cheap option, I think Washington has some potential at just $2,100. Denver’s offense has allowed an adjusted sack rate that ranks 25th, and they have a -3 turnover differential. While Washington is 6th in situation-neutral pace of play, Denver is near the bottom of the league (29th). So it’ll be interesting to see what kind of pace this game is played at. But the modest O/U suggests a low-scoring game. Plus, at just $2,100, it’s not like Washington needs to do a lot to return value. 8 points gets you to 4x, and anything beyond that is gravy. They managed 8 points a couple of weeks ago despite losing by 18 thanks to picking Mahomes off twice and getting 3 sacks. And they followed that up with 7 against GB despite losing by 14. Now, bear in mind that they’ve yet to surrender less than 20 real points this season. So don’t expect them to hold the Broncos to 7-10 points. This is a play mainly based on their near-min salary and Denver’s struggles with pass protection hopefully leading to some sacks. If Washington can take it away a couple of times on top of that, they’ll easily pay off that salary.

  • Wsdm61987

    Looks like DeShaun Watson is headed to Miami after all.

  • Agent47

    For the main slate on DK, I would think Hunter Henry would be popular because of the “revenge” narrative against the Chargers and Jonnu Smith being potentially out. But I think he has merit outside of that as well. The Chargers are just barely behind the Ravens in giving up the most FPPG to TEs this season with 20.3. They’ve also given up 5 TDs to TEs, which is the second most in the league (3 teams are tied with 6). Henry has seen a snap rate between 60-80% each week this season. Does he approach or top 90% this week if Jonnu Smith is out? The only other healthy TE on the roster is Devin Asiasi, who hasn’t played a single snap this season. So I think there’s a good chance of that.

    If you don’t like Henry because he’ll be too popular or for another reason, I would also recommend Tyler Higbee at $4,500 as a pivot. With backup TE Johnny Mundt on IR, Higbee has played 100% of the offensive snaps the past 2 weeks. I would expect that to continue this week. The Texans are one of those aforementioned 3 teams that have given up 6 TDs to TEs this season. They’ve also allowed the 4th most FPPG to TEs with 18.3. The blowout potential here is real, and Higbee is at best the 3rd option in the passing game behind Kupp and Woods. But if you’re looking for some exposure to the Rams implied total of 31.25 and don’t want to pay up for Kupp, I think Higbee is a good option.

    If you’re looking for someone even cheaper, Gerald Everett is only $3,300. Yes, his numbers haven’t been eye-popping. But the Jaguars are dead last in DVOA against the pass, and they’ve given up 4 TDs to TEs and 18.9 FPPG (3rd most) this season. Everett could also be a pivot off of Uzomah who will be more popular after his huge game this past weekend against Baltimore.

  • Wsdm61987

    Lazard on covid list now

  • theghostofveebs

    @superjon said...

    With Adams and Lazard out on Thursday and the Cardinals even bigger favorites.

    Why would I not be surprised if the Showdown winner stacked 4 Packers and ran Murray naked.

    Not having studied it yet, I had the opposite thought: one packer and four cardinals, a la Alvin Kamara and 4 seahawks. tricky bit is A Jones is not A Kamara, so variations might include Rodgers or Dillon in the “one packer” slot….i.e. captain murray, dhop, dillon, kirk, green (down to Moore, Ertz, kicker as needed).

  • theghostofveebs

    @Agent47 said...

    For the main slate on DK, I would think Hunter Henry would be popular because of the “revenge” narrative against the Chargers and Jonnu Smith being potentially out. But I think he has merit outside of that as well. The Chargers are just barely behind the Ravens in giving up the most FPPG to TEs this season with 20.3. They’ve also given up 5 TDs to TEs, which is the second most in the league (3 teams are tied with 6). Henry has seen a snap rate between 60-80% each week this season. Does he approach or top 90% this week if Jonnu Smith is out? The only other healthy TE on the roster is Devin Asiasi, who hasn’t played a single snap this season. So I think there’s a good chance of that.

    NE LAC is an interesting matchup given what BALT did to LAC with defense and run game. It’s TBD whether or not the 54 that NE just hung on NYJ is at all meaningful in the context of playing better competition, but I don’t expect both teams to be ok with playing inside a phone booth. Either NE imposes their will and Damien Harris and Hunter Henry are they plays (with a Mike Williams bring back) or an LAC aerial assault is the play (Herbert/Williams/Eckler or Allen with a D Harris or H Henry bringback). I suspect the latter given the fragile state of NE’s secondary at the moment.

  • superjon

    @theghostofveebs said...

    Not having studied it yet, I had the opposite thought: one packer and four cardinals, a la Alvin Kamara and 4 seahawks. tricky bit is A Jones is not A Kamara, so variations might include Rodgers or Dillon in the “one packer” slot….i.e. captain murray, dhop, dillon, kirk, green (down to Moore, Ertz, kicker as needed).

    That’s fine, and I’m sure I’ll have some like that as well.

    But it is the most obvious build.

  • NDNole

    If Deshaun Watson is able to clear up his issues by the trade deadline that should be the nail in the coffin for this Era of metoo and prove it was likely a money grab all along. Off topic I know.

  • odanny

    @Wsdm61987 said...

    Looks like DeShaun Watson is headed to Miami after all.

    I made a futures bet on that happening, as soon as he takes his first snap, $40 wins me $280.

  • blakevoiles

    TE pricing looks gross. Everett is in a great matchup, but Smith is awful and the Seahawks seemed content slamming the run game regardless of it was working or not. If Jonnu Smith plays he could be the pivot off of Henry. He is going to eventually produce a big game and a matchup against the Chargers could be the moment for it.

  • BIF

    @Wsdm61987 said...

    Lazard on covid list now

    That was announced Tuesday afternoon

  • squidkill

    @BIF said...

    That was announced Tuesday afternoon

    Adams on Covid list

  • superjon

    Magic Johnson tests positive for HIV

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    Gehrig pinch hits for Pipp in the 8th

  • anon1983

    Something like 22 allegations against Watson. I’d call that a pattern before I’d call it a money grab. I’m willing to bet his athletic talent and ability to fill seats will prevail in the end though.

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