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  • bhdevault

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    Thursday, 11/2
    8:25 PM EST : Buffalo ( -3.5 ) at NY Jets ( 3.5 ) —- T: 42

    Sunday, 11/5
    1:00 PM EST : LA Rams ( -3.5 ) at NY Giants ( 3.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( 5.5 ) at Tennessee ( -5.5 ) —- T: 43
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 7 ) at New Orleans ( -7 ) —- T: 50
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 3.5 ) at Jacksonville ( -3.5 ) —- T: 39.5
    1:00 PM EST : Denver ( 7 ) at Philadelphia ( -7 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 13 ) at Houston ( -13 ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 2 ) at Carolina ( -2 ) —- T: 44
    4:05 PM EST : Arizona ( -2.5 ) at San Francisco ( 2.5 ) —- T: 39.5
    4:05 PM EST : Washington ( 7 ) at Seattle ( -7 ) —- T: 45
    4:25 PM EST : Kansas City ( 1 ) at Dallas ( -1 ) —- T: —
    8:30 PM EST : Oakland ( -2.5 ) at Miami ( 2.5 ) —- T: 43.5

    Monday, 11/6
    8:30 PM EST : Detroit ( (Pick) ) at Green Bay ( (Pick) ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • Kamais_Ookin

    Will hunt finally have a good game befitting his price tag after 5 weeks of duds? He’s not inspiring a lot of confidence in me compared to fournette, gurley, saints back or miller. Even CmC is more appealing.

  • Dsingleton3321

    100% agree. As a chiefs fan I think this will be a high scoring game our D is most definitely our weakness. Gonna stack this game mixed in with Atl WR and some saints and bucs stacks.

  • Messiah717

    I don’t see how you roster Watson, Hopkins and Fuller without having numerous trash spots in your lineup.

  • Supanice

    This is where we need CG to come in with stats on Andy Reid coming in on a short week. Cowboys want to do everything in their power to slow this game down right?

  • WILjr623

    Really and what do u bring to this forum?

  • Dsingleton3321

    @Kamais_Ookin said...

    Will hunt finally have a good game befitting his price tag after 5 weeks of duds? He’s not inspiring a lot of confidence in me compared to fournette, gurley, saints back or miller. Even CmC is more appealing.

    Yes I love this spot for hunt. He will finally be low owned because of the reasons you mention and with how many touches we give him he is bound for the end zone again sooner rather. The chiefs never really have a bad game script so he won’t get fased out of the game ever.

  • Kamais_Ookin

    @Messiah717 said...

    I don’t see how you roster Watson, Hopkins and Fuller without having numerous trash spots in your lineup.

    You have to pay down on the rb’s for a decent lineup with those 3. Luckily the cheaper rbs are far more appealing than they were last week.

  • mike42

    Does anyone remember how much crock Assweller threw to his TE’s? It doesn’t even matter that he has good WR’s, he had Hopkins in Houston. Derby is $2900, good place to save $$.

  • mike42

    Hopkins will not be heavy chalk at that price. I like Hilton more than him, this game is indoors on fast track vs a secondary that just gave up 600 yds to Russ. Totally differentl setup than Cindy game and his price makes the risk/reward as favorable as u will ever see it.

  • Dsingleton3321

    The way I look at the Texans game is even if they put up great numbers with the way they are priced there are other players who can easily outperform them given their price. I would take Dak over Watson given the pricing and matchups. Elliot is out and it should be a high scoring game. Fuller is priced with guys like Julio, Thomas, Evans, Dez who will all likely need more targets given the more competitive game scripts. And nuke is so expensive I would rather just pay for one of the other four mentioned players and have a more balanced lineup

  • Kamais_Ookin

    @mike42 said...

    Does anyone remember how much crock Assweller threw to his TE’s? It doesn’t even matter that he has good WR’s, he had Hopkins in Houston. Derby is $2900, good place to save $$.

    He throws to DT more than seamen does too on average I believe.

  • WrathofKhaaan

    @Kamais_Ookin said...

    He throws to DT more than seamen does too on average I believe.

  • theghostofveebs

    @querb said...

    i just cant get on board with samuel until we see usage and targets w/o benjamin. at the end of the day doesnt CMAC benefit greatly from this move?

    I’d like to see market shares of 3rd down attempts as I frankly don’t know the pre-trade distribution.

  • theghostofveebs

    @Messiah717 said...

    Some interesting numbers for the Falcons vs Panthers.

    The Atlanta Falcons are:

    9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games
    8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against the NFC
    4-1 ATS in their last five games against the NFC South

    The Carolina Panthers are:

    0-4 ATS in their last four home games
    2-6 ATS in their last eight games against the NFC South
    1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win

    curious what those distributions look like only including 2017 (i.e. with Sarkesian running the offense).

  • Kamais_Ookin

    @Dsingleton3321 said...

    The way I look at the Texans game is even if they put up great numbers with the way they are priced there are other players who can easily outperform them given their price. I would take Dak over Watson given the pricing and matchups. Elliot is out and it should be a high scoring game. Fuller is priced with guys like Julio, Thomas, Evans, Dez who will all likely need more targets given the more competitive game scripts. And nuke is so expensive I would rather just pay for one of the other four mentioned players and have a more balanced lineup

    I don’t know, people had no problem paying 8k range for brady and that failed more than it worked. With watson the price seems much more understandable vs Colts, I feel it’s fail-proof 25pts minimum but expecting 30+. Doesn’t necessarily have to be stacked with a receiver, naked watson or pair with miller is fine. Watson and Dak matchups are very comparable, I wouldn’t say one is flat-out better than the other. I still think losing Elliot is a huge loss to the overall offense. I have a gut feeling it’s a trap to come to the conclusion that Dez is going to have a massive game all of a sudden with Elliots absence. It could just as easily be that they barely have time of possession over the ball and chiefs shred them. Assuredly mcfadden is nothing to be feared, the defenders can focus their attention on the receivers. Tbh I like the chiefs side of the game much more. And finally none of the receivers you’ve mentioned have shown what the texans have so far this season despite all the great spots they were in up to this point. I’ll continue happily fading Julio especially he’s garbage under the new OC scheme.

  • Messiah717

    @Kamais_Ookin said...

    I don’t know, people had no problem paying 8k range for brady and that failed more than it worked. With watson the price seems much more understandable vs Colts, I feel it’s fail-proof 25pts minimum but expecting 30+. Doesn’t necessarily have to be stacked with a receiver, naked watson or pair with miller is fine. Watson and Dak matchups are very comparable, I wouldn’t say one is flat-out better than the other. I still think losing Elliot is a huge loss to the overall offense. I have a gut feeling it’s a trap to come to the conclusion that Dez is going to have a massive game all of a sudden with Elliots absence. It could just as easily be that they barely have time of possession over the ball and chiefs shred them. Assuredly mcfadden is nothing to be feared, the defenders can focus their attention on the receivers. Tbh I like the chiefs side of the game much more. And finally none of the receivers you’ve mentioned have shown what the texans have so far this season despite all the great spots they were in up to this point. I’ll continue happily fading Julio especially he’s garbage under the new OC scheme.

    Regardless of Elliot playing or not it seems Dez is another guy people are just waiting to have a big game. It’s like the weekly Julio Jones stuff. Yeah I understand that “these guys are just too cheap” but it’s the same story week after week.

  • theghostofveebs

    @EvoX said...

    Anyone have the balls to play Osweiller in a gpp?

    1 entry out of 50 $0.25 entries? Sure!

  • theghostofveebs

    @Dunzor said...

    Does anybody have any knowledge of whether Miami Defense plays more of a zone scheme or more man coverage? This is the one type of stat/tracking I haven’t been able to find on any site and seems to just be a recognition thing for people who watch their games or follow particular teams.

    A quick google search led to profootballfocus article from July that said Dolphins ran zone 68% of the time in 2016, ranking 4th in the league in highest % zone.

    I didn’t see anything re: season to date this year, but that stat makes sense intuitively as the fish are all about pressuring the qb and stopping the run with front 7.

  • Kloozy

    Did anyone notice how poorly Alex Smith threw the ball after the fumble, and more importantly the tackle he made on the D Lineman who picked up the fumble. He made that tackle with his throwing shoulder. I have no reports to link, didn’t hear it talked about anywhere, but it’s what i saw. I swear every pass after that tackle was a bad pass, the only ones that were caught was cause his receiver went up and made a play. It’s something to think about, I won’t be surprised if he has a bad game this week. I WANT to roster some KC players, but just can’t, my gut is telling me to stay away.

  • Messiah717

    @Kloozy said...

    Did anyone notice how poorly Alex Smith threw the ball after the fumble, and more importantly the tackle he made on the D Lineman who picked up the fumble. He made that tackle with his throwing shoulder. I have no reports to link, didn’t hear it talked about anywhere, but it’s what i saw. I swear every pass after that tackle was a bad pass, the only ones that were caught was cause his receiver went up and made a play. It’s something to think about, I won’t be surprised if he has a bad game this week. I WANT to roster some KC players, but just can’t, my gut is telling me to stay away.

    I think his problems had more to do with the Denver defense than anything else. For the most part not much was going on all night except to Kelce.

  • Kamais_Ookin

    @Kloozy said...

    Did anyone notice how poorly Alex Smith threw the ball after the fumble, and more importantly the tackle he made on the D Lineman who picked up the fumble. He made that tackle with his throwing shoulder. I have no reports to link, didn’t hear it talked about anywhere, but it’s what i saw. I swear every pass after that tackle was a bad pass, the only ones that were caught was cause his receiver went up and made a play. It’s something to think about, I won’t be surprised if he has a bad game this week. I WANT to roster some KC players, but just can’t, my gut is telling me to stay away.

    Denver defense is no joke, that’s what I got out of it. Cowboys don’t compare.

  • Kloozy

    I don’t disagree that Den def is as good as they get, but also think that doesn’t explain his horrible accuracy after the fumble play. Maybe it’s in my head, and his arm is A1, but I for sure am gonna be so mad at myself if I ignore it and end up right. Just thought I’d share, if you just think that was solid defense, that’s up to you. I do encourage you to rewatch that 2nd half, especially if you’re a high stakes player. Even Gruden commented on it, and he wasn’t saying “due to defense”. Take it or leave it

    EDIT: And for the record I think Jon Gruden is a tool of a commentator, but I was already noticing it, when he talked about the bad tosses.

    EDIT AGAIN, Just noticed I made some serious typos, corrected now. Think I will do a better job proof reading my posts in the future…lol

  • htaneers

    I noticed it too, and i disagree with those who think his accuracy had to do with the D, his accuracy independent of defense sucked balls after that, but im assuming his shoulder will be fine by Sunday. Still not playing him but i think no downgrade to Hill or Kelce (spot looks good for both, im going with Hill this week)

  • Kamais_Ookin

    @Kloozy said...

    I don’t disagree that Den def is as good as they get, but also think that doesn’t explain his horrible accuracy after the fumble play. Maybe it’s in my head, and his arm is A, but I for sure am gonna be so mad at myself if I ignore it and end up right. Just thought I’d share, if you just think that was solid defense, that’s up to you. I do encourage you to rewatch that 2nd half, especially if you’re a high stakes player. Even Gruden commented on it, and he was saying “due to defense”. Take it or leave it

    EDIT: And for the record I think Jon Gruden is a tool of a commentator, but I was already noticing it, when he talked about the bad tosses.

    Even if it’s as you say, I’m sure his arm will be fine by Sunday. At least have a little bit exposure if you feel that strongly about it.

  • Dsingleton3321

    Julio I like because the panthers run D is so good the falcons will be forsed to pass. I also love Sanu and Ryan for those same reasons. Thomas is still a target machine and putting up good stats, it’s just a matter of time before he puts up a monster game against a terrible bucs defense. Also love brate in the same game as he has been the most consistent TE outside of ertz, but his price always stays the same.

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