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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 11/1
    8:20 PM EST : Oakland ( 3.5 ) at San Francisco ( -3.5 ) —- T: 47

    Sunday, 11/4
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 6.5 ) at Minnesota ( -6.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : NY Jets ( 3 ) at Miami ( -3 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( 0 ) at Buffalo ( 0 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 6 ) at Carolina ( -6 ) —- T: 53.5
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 1 ) at Washington ( -1 ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -7.5 ) at Cleveland ( 7.5 ) —- T: 52
    1:00 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 3 ) at Baltimore ( -3 ) —- T: 47.5
    4:05 PM EST : LA Chargers ( (Pick) ) at Seattle ( (Pick) ) —- T: 48
    4:05 PM EST : Houston ( 2.5 ) at Denver ( -2.5 ) —- T: 47
    4:25 PM EST : LA Rams ( (Pick) ) at New Orleans ( (Pick) ) —- T: —
    8:20 PM EST : Green Bay ( 6 ) at New England ( -6 ) —- T: —

    Monday, 11/5
    8:15 PM EST : Tennessee ( 6 ) at Dallas ( -6 ) —- T: 42.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • infantryboys

    Looking at the Vegas lines, I can’t remember the last time I saw a 60 pt O/U for an NFL game.

  • JH822547

    Kamara 7.3K is pretty interesting to say the least.

  • Brian7479

    @AVivier said...

    The o/u in the Saints/Rams game is freaking 60. I’m sure that’s gonna be super chalky to stack, but I think you need to eat the chalk here.

    I think I’ll be underweight on that game. I think NO minus 1 is easy money and I think they will use Ingram and Kamara to control TOP. Think NO’s keeps Gurley from reaching value

  • Brian7479

    Also gonna have some AP again against ATL at home and a few Washington D at only 3400 on FD. Atlanta is coming off a bye and in their 2 road games put up 12 and 17 points against average defenses in Philly and Pitt.

  • Brian7479

    Anybody kind enough to share Carolinas snap numbers the past few games? Specifically looking at who will be running a lot of routes from the slot against Tampa

  • Brian7479

    @parrothead112 said...

    Gurley and Kamara

    Neither

  • Brian7479

    @QuietStormClay said...

    The way Seattle scorched them..Thielen and Diggs should go off

    I wouldn’t go really heavy on them. Detroits secondary actually wasn’t that bad. Seattle just came up with some extremely well defended passes

  • mnstone14

    @parrothead112 said...

    Gurley and Kamara

    why kamara, hes done not much since ingrams come back.

  • AVivier

    I think there is a much better chance the Rams blowout NO than vice vera.

  • parrothead112

    @mnstone14 said...

    why kamara, hes done not much since ingrams come back.

    Well, i was thinking that the Saints are going to have to score a bunch of points, and he is the best bet to do that.

  • AVivier

    Kamara just got 20 touches and 26.6 DKFPs agaisnt Minnesota, not like he’s done nothing. I’m sure I’ll have some Kamara.

  • TopDawgs07

    @AVivier said...

    The o/u in the Saints/Rams game is freaking 60. I’m sure that’s gonna be super chalky to stack, but I think you need to eat the chalk here.

    I feel bad. You mentioned Watkins last week but doubted yourself. I was playing him some but didn’t speak up to confirm what you were thinking. To be honest, I doubted myself too, wish I played him even more. You were right on him.

  • Brian7479

    If KC holds Tyreek out do we play Watkins? Or will it be Kelce against the Browns D? Hunt is in play but as far as the pass catchers

  • jsteele1020

    OK, not understanding something. In the milly a dude came in 5th and 6th, with the same exact lu. What’s the point of that? Why would you play the same lineup multiple times in the same tourney?

  • Trappist1

    @jsteele1020 said...

    OK, not understanding something. In the milly a dude came in 5th and 6th, with the same exact lu. What’s the point of that? Why would you play the same lineup multiple times in the same tourney?

    It makes no sense if you are that high going into the later games, it is optimal to make pivots so as to take the 1st spot and win the milly. Think you have a lot of new players in big contests such as the milly and you see some very sub-optimal line-ups. Some might even get lucky and win the whole thing, but that is not a good long term strategy. I look much more at line-up’s in the Wild Cat to see how the sharper players are doing line-up construction.

  • jhpog

    Want to thank the thread last week from talking me out of so much Baldwin even though I had some (and it ended up being my best two lineupes). There were some good points made about rush/pass volume, the new OC, and matchups that got me to shift some. Had my first down week in a few weeks sadly. Had no Mixon or Peterson.

    A couple weeks ago I said that Cohen was mispriced and I would continue playing him until around 6-6.5k and sad to see that we are there. Rather than riding him further I’d rather find the next mispriced player. He still has a good matchup but he’s priced near people with good matchups and more volume.

    If Cook is out again I think that player is Lat Murray at 5.1k. He’s been getting plenty of volume – 18,17,25 touches last 3 weeks – and is up against a Lions team ranked 30th in dDVOA against the run in a favorable game script. I think people are still hung up on the bad Murray week against the Bills when he was mega chalk and he’s been underowned since then as well.

  • Digital

    I was thinking the same thing… well, my exact thought was “Is Cam too expensive this week?”

  • ASitar

    I think this is a 20+ Jordan Howard week.

    Also, I’m very interested in David Moore ($3,900), Chris Godwin ($4,400), DaVante Parker ($4,600), DeSean Jackson ($5,000), John Brown ($5,800).

  • parrothead112

    @ASitar said...

    I think this is a 20+ Jordan Howard week.

    Also, I’m very interested in David Moore ($3,900), Chris Godwin ($4,400), DaVante Parker ($4,600), DeSean Jackson ($5,000), John Brown ($5,800).

    I like Moore because of Bucs. He is a cheap piece to that game.

  • Trappist1

    @parrothead112 said...

    I like Moore because of Bucs. He is a cheap piece to that game.

    Interesting to see how touted D.J. Moore will get as the week goes and his ownership %.

  • mike42

    @Trappist1 said...

    I can see one or two of the Ram’s WR putting up a big score and being in GPP winning line-up’s. That is still accounting the Saints winning comfortably. Look at the numbers the Saints have been giving up to WR’s.

    My concern is that NO’s plays this game like the 2017 Saints and uses its two headed backfield monster to control TOP and diminishes the value of everyone not named Kamara or Ingram. Basically what GB did for a half. It’s what Sea and Den did too. It’s the blueprint to beat the Rams and No other team is built better than NO’s is to get the W. Payton built the team with games like this on mind so they are literally built better to execute that game plan than anyone else is in The league.

    I think NO’s puts together 4 plus 5 min plus drives this game. Just a bunch of ceiling crushing drives for the Rams players. Really difficult setup for the rams, back to back high profile games Vs good/great teams giving it their best shot.

    My first GPP thought on this game was play both rb’s. Maybe even just Ingram, skip Kamara. I think Ingram gets 20 touches Vs a bad run D and just wears them down all game. Gets a 120 plus 2 TD’s. In other words, what A. Jones would have gotten if his coach wasn’t a fat raging dumbass and gave Jones 20 carries Sunday.

  • mike42

    @bluebroker said...

    from the Athletic:

    Cam Newton will just not stop running. He has 34 runs the past four weeks and many are designed. Alleged bell cow Christian McCaffrey has 46 in the same period. You’re not a bell cow when your QB gets almost as many carries.

    This reply is too other posts also about CMC/Cam:

    I posted before Wash how Cam has more weapons than he’s possibly ever had and that would diminish CMC’s value. Cam is just a great play these days regardless of matchups, CMC is gpp only. Cam has playmakers around him, guys that can take a slant or bubble screen to the house, he didn’t have that last year. It’s even better if Tori misses another game. Toss in the running and playing TB and just NO reason to fade him.

  • mike42

    @Brian7479 said...

    Also gonna have some AP again against ATL at home and a few Washington D at only 3400 on FD. Atlanta is coming off a bye and in their 2 road games put up 12 and 17 points against average defenses in Philly and Pitt.

    Atl may not be as easy to run on with DT back. Think his name is Jarrett. They held up better before bye with him, pretty sure this is the week to fade AP. BB division games for Wash and ideal game scripts for wash/ap. People will use AP in cash and I think it’s a mistake. Atl plays with the lead and AP could get 10 runs and 1 pass. If Thompson or Bibbs are healthy, this sets up better for them.

    Wash can’t fall behind or they are screwed. That simple fact makes AP’s floor really low. I think public perception on Wash’s D got a serious bump because they just played two really bad O’s in the Giants and Dallas. I seriously doubt they contain ATL’s O in a pretty obvious letdown spot.

  • mike42

    @Digital said...

    I was thinking the same thing… well, my exact thought was “Is Cam too expensive this week?”

    The DK prices on QB’s this year are a joke. Last year too qb’s pushed 8k, this year you can get Cam Vs a historically bad pass D for 1500 less. It really doesn’t make sense.

  • 866

    Finally a week I am lookin fwd to. Will be in more volume than normal. Like a lot of matchups. Esp the LA/N.O. Gm. You guys may be right.. but it still goes OVER 60! See a 33-30 type game regardless of N.O. trying to burn clock, possible OT in this one as well. Will go Gurley/Kamara/Ingram on one just for fun.

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