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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 11/1
    8:20 PM EST : Oakland ( 3.5 ) at San Francisco ( -3.5 ) —- T: 47

    Sunday, 11/4
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 6.5 ) at Minnesota ( -6.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : NY Jets ( 3 ) at Miami ( -3 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( 0 ) at Buffalo ( 0 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 6 ) at Carolina ( -6 ) —- T: 53.5
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 1 ) at Washington ( -1 ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -7.5 ) at Cleveland ( 7.5 ) —- T: 52
    1:00 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 3 ) at Baltimore ( -3 ) —- T: 47.5
    4:05 PM EST : LA Chargers ( (Pick) ) at Seattle ( (Pick) ) —- T: 48
    4:05 PM EST : Houston ( 2.5 ) at Denver ( -2.5 ) —- T: 47
    4:25 PM EST : LA Rams ( (Pick) ) at New Orleans ( (Pick) ) —- T: —
    8:20 PM EST : Green Bay ( 6 ) at New England ( -6 ) —- T: —

    Monday, 11/5
    8:15 PM EST : Tennessee ( 6 ) at Dallas ( -6 ) —- T: 42.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • 33BeRad

    @mike42 said...

    I seriously doubt they contain ATL’s O in a pretty obvious letdown spo

    My only concern with Atl is they have so obviously struggled to put up points on the road. I don’t know if this is a letdown spot either. They know Julio and company are coming to town. It’s pretty easy to get up for a home game like this. If anything, I would think they squeak out a win vs a bad outdoor Atl offense and have a letdown next week when they travel to Tampa. It’s not like we can use Alex in that game. But I do think this game sets up better for Thompson or Bibbs regardless of the outcome.

  • 866

    Like the WSH DST @ 2600 vs ATL in outdoor setting. They will score a TD in this game. WSH wins!

  • Nbkfish

    Saints/rams both implied 30. Panthers implied 30 then Vikings and chiefs. Gonna be a lot of points this week. Now to figure who gets them points

  • Desiderio3

    I think he means david moore from seattle!!!!

  • 33BeRad

    With Fuller out for the year and Keke aggravating his hamstring I think Nuk is in line for about 28 targets this week. HAHA! I kid….partially. But seriously, 15 targets would not be crazy. I would think they’d try to lean on Miller(who isn’t a bad play against Denver’s run def).

  • Brian7479

    @ASitar said...

    I think this is a 20+ Jordan Howard week.

    Also, I’m very interested in David Moore ($3,900), Chris Godwin ($4,400), DaVante Parker ($4,600), DeSean Jackson ($5,000), John Brown ($5,800).

    Man will people ever stop chasing a 20 point game from Jordan Howard? Holy smokes. His biggest rushing totals are 82 and 81 yards and he has 3 games under 40 rushing yards. He’s also got a total of 4 targets over the last 4 weeks combined for 1 catch and 9 yards. You’re really hoping for 2 TD’s and Cohen is their most dangerous player. Bottom line is on the season as a whole you would easily save way more money not playing him than you would playing him.

  • Brian7479

    @parrothead112 said...

    I like Moore because of Bucs. He is a cheap piece to that game.

    He’s talking about a different Moore man

  • Brian7479

    @mike42 said...

    Atl may not be as easy to run on with DT back. Think his name is Jarrett. They held up better before bye with him, pretty sure this is the week to fade AP. BB division games for Wash and ideal game scripts for wash/ap. People will use AP in cash and I think it’s a mistake. Atl plays with the lead and AP could get 10 runs and 1 pass. If Thompson or Bibbs are healthy, this sets up better for them.

    Wash can’t fall behind or they are screwed. That simple fact makes AP’s floor really low. I think public perception on Wash’s D got a serious bump because they just played two really bad O’s in the Giants and Dallas. I seriously doubt they contain ATL’s O in a pretty obvious letdown spot.

    Forgot about Jarrett being back but I still think it’s not a bad idea to have AP in a few gpp lineups which is all I play. The Washington D in a few lineups is more so about how bad ATL has been on the road. If you go back and watch Matt Ryan in those games many of his throws were absolutely terrible to watch. Like some of those throws made me annoyed and I’m not even a Falcons fan haha. Again I only play GPP and only on FD so I think both AP and Washington D at only 3400 are in play for me. Not more than a few lineups though. Washington D on the main slate on DK is the 7th most expensive and on FD their the 15th. Helps you get in Cam and company if you want too

  • ASitar

    @Brian7479 said...

    Man will people ever stop chasing a 20 point game from Jordan Howard? Holy smokes. His biggest rushing totals are 82 and 81 yards and he has 3 games under 40 rushing yards. He’s also got a total of 4 targets over the last 4 weeks combined for 1 catch and 9 yards. You’re really hoping for 2 TD’s and Cohen is their most dangerous player. Bottom line is on the season as a whole you would easily save way more money not playing him than you would playing him.

    I never use Jordan Howard, but I think this is the week to do so. Buffalo on a short week coming off of a division Primetime game that was the only game they cared about. He may not hit 100, but he’ll find the end zone twice.

  • Brian7479

    I think the biggest thing this week is the Carolina Tampa game. Obviously Carolina could and should have a big game offensively. I think Carolinas ceiling depends on Tampas offense though. Does Tampa put up a lot of points and do they force Carolina to keep scoring? Fitzmagic success is largely dependent on big plays and big chunks of yardage. Football insiders has Carolina right about league average on deep plays. More so I was surprised to see that Carolina has been much worse on deep plays on the outside rather than in the middle of the field. But it seems stat wise that Carolina has given up more yardage etc. to the TE and Slot. So at first I was leaning towards guys like OJ Howard and Humphries but now I’m starting to wonder if all of the Tampa pass catchers are about even when it comes to being more or less optimal plays. To me it looks like Tampa needs to game plan to get the inside pass catchers open on the outside whether it’s posts to the outside of the field or square outs etc. Should be interesting to see how the Tampa pass catchers shake out in terms of individual success. The first and very early lineup I made was a double TE with Olsen and OJ Howard. Not very often a two TE lineup goes off let alone 2 TE’s from the same game. Would be interested to see numbers on which WR’s have been running the most routes from the slot for Carolina as that has been one of the best places to attack Tampa with

  • ElSlappo

    Watson a bit cheap on yahoo

  • frUnk

    @Brian7479 said...

    I think the biggest thing this week is the Carolina Tampa game. Obviously Carolina could and should have a big game offensively. I think Carolinas ceiling depends on Tampas offense though. Does Tampa put up a lot of points and do they force Carolina to keep scoring? Fitzmagic success is largely dependent on big plays and big chunks of yardage. Football insiders has Carolina right about league average on deep plays. More so I was surprised to see that Carolina has been much worse on deep plays on the outside rather than in the middle of the field. But it seems stat wise that Carolina has given up more yardage etc. to the TE and Slot. So at first I was leaning towards guys like OJ Howard and Humphries but now I’m starting to wonder if all of the Tampa pass catchers are about even when it comes to being more or less optimal plays. To me it looks like Tampa needs to game plan to get the inside pass catchers open on the outside whether it’s posts to the outside of the field or square outs etc. Should be interesting to see how the Tampa pass catchers shake out in terms of individual success. The first and very early lineup I made was a double TE with Olsen and OJ Howard. Not very often a two TE lineup goes off let alone 2 TE’s from the same game. Would be interested to see numbers on which WR’s have been running the most routes from the slot for Carolina as that has been one of the best places to attack Tampa with

    Regarding the Tampa Bay TE’s, per PFF:

    Since 2015, 30% of Winston’s passing fantasy points have come when targeting his TE’s, ranked 4th most over that span. Fitzpatrick ranks last with 8%.

    Fitzmagic targeting his WR’s = 78% of his fantasy points come from WR, most on that list since 2015.

  • speskowi

    @ElSlappo said...

    Watson a bit cheap on yahoo

    Noticed that as well. Coming off a 5 TD game and playing a bad Denver D. He’s priced lower than Jameis, Alex Smith, Case Keenum, and same price as Tannehill. Major lock

  • AVivier

    @33BeRad said...

    With Fuller out for the year and Keke aggravating his hamstring I think Nuk is in line for about 28 targets this week. HAHA! I kid….partially. But seriously, 15 targets would not be crazy. I would think they’d try to lean on Miller(who isn’t a bad play against Denver’s run def).

    Normally Nuk would have a really plus matchup here too since he plays outside and Harris Jr plays mostly slot. I wonder if Denver changes and moves Harris outside at all to shadow Nuk.

  • squidkill

    @parrothead112 said...

    Well, i was thinking that the Saints are going to have to score a bunch of points, and he is the best bet to do that.

    Tuesday morning and I log into seeing this sharp analysis. Log out

  • mike42

    @ASitar said...

    I never use Jordan Howard, but I think this is the week to do so. Buffalo on a short week coming off of a division Primetime game that was the only game they cared about. He may not hit 100, but he’ll find the end zone twice.

    NE’s entire O only found the end zone once. Most teams have struggled to put up points Vs Buf. I think last week was the Howard ceiling game. Our O-line doesn’t open up big holes and Long got injured last week, they may struggle up front this week.

    Good chance Anderson doesn’t start or finish this game, Bears D in play. Not sure anyone else on Bears has a good setup.

  • mike42

    @frUnk said...

    Regarding the Tampa Bay TE’s, per PFF:

    Since 2015, 30% of Winston’s passing fantasy points have come when targeting his TE’s, ranked 4th most over that span. Fitzpatrick ranks last with 8%.

    Fitzmagic targeting his WR’s = 78% of his fantasy points come from WR, most on that list since 2015.

    Was going to post about that too. DJ gets a resurrection with Fitz back, Godwin just overdue. Evans probably overpriced and is more of a Winston play. Think it’s DJ than Godwin than idk but Barber is too cheap too.

  • mike42

    I like Chubb this week too. You can attack KC’s run D and he is getting more snaps than Hyde ever did. New OC establishing the run is a safe bet.

  • frUnk

    @mike42 said...

    I like Chubb this week too. You can attack KC’s run D and he is getting more snaps than Hyde ever did. New OC establishing the run is a safe bet.

    Yeah good look on Chubb. Defensive coordinator taking over as interim head coach, should be defensive minded, got to try and slow the game down against KC. They can’t get into a shootout. Not bad for $4500 on DK.

  • TopDawgs07

    @Brian7479 said...

    Forgot about Jarrett being back but I still think it’s not a bad idea to have AP in a few gpp lineups which is all I play. The Washington D in a few lineups is more so about how bad ATL has been on the road. If you go back and watch Matt Ryan in those games many of his throws were absolutely terrible to watch. Like some of those throws made me annoyed and I’m not even a Falcons fan haha. Again I only play GPP and only on FD so I think both AP and Washington D at only 3400 are in play for me. Not more than a few lineups though. Washington D on the main slate on DK is the 7th most expensive and on FD their the 15th. Helps you get in Cam and company if you want too

    With the injuries ATL sustained to the middle of their defense, LB and Safeties, it’s still not a bad idea attacking them with a good pass catching back. I would rather have some Chris Thompson if he’s healthy.

  • TopDawgs07

    @frUnk said...

    Regarding the Tampa Bay TE’s, per PFF:

    Since 2015, 30% of Winston’s passing fantasy points have come when targeting his TE’s, ranked 4th most over that span. Fitzpatrick ranks last with 8%.

    Fitzmagic targeting his WR’s = 78% of his fantasy points come from WR, most on that list since 2015.

    I believe Fitz playing gives DJax a bump as well. Fitz looks for DJax on those deep balls, much more often than Winston did. DJax’s price on DK is underpriced based on this line of thinking too.

    EDIT: Now reading Mike42 has already mentioned this.

  • TopDawgs07

    @frUnk said...

    Yeah good look on Chubb. Defensive coordinator taking over as interim head coach, should be defensive minded, got to try and slow the game down against KC. They can’t get into a shootout. Not bad for $4500 on DK.

    Two good points from both you and Mike42. KC struggles against the run so the Browns will be attacking a weakness. I also really believe seeing Williams take over at Head Coach instead of Haley pushes that line of thinking. DC’s will obviously be more defensive minded and look to run the ball, control clock, and help their defense.

  • mike42

    @TopDawgs07 said...

    Two good points from both you and Mike42. KC struggles against the run so the Browns will be attacking a weakness. I also really believe seeing Williams take over at Head Coach instead of Haley pushes that line of thinking. DC’s will obviously be more defensive minded and look to run the ball, control clock, and help their defense.

    Chubb will be chalk this week. It’s funny, I posted after the Hyde trade that I thought Dorsey traded Hyde to make them have to play Chubb and I just read that that was actually the case. It’s probably even a better setup than Lyndsey last week. Home dog, arguably more talented and definitely more of a big play threat and plays more than Lyndsey. I need to check it out, but Duke playing as a WR a lot, Chubb could in theory get close to bell cow usage, maybe 80% of the runs with a run heavy approach.

    I think it needs to be said, but all along we have known Clev is talented and the coach was the problem. Coach is gone and I get the impression the team didn’t have a whole lot of respect for him either. You might get a max effort game from a talented team making maybe a couple Clev players viable Vs a D that gives up points and production.

  • Soma919

    @mike42 said...

    Chubb will be chalk this week. It’s funny, I posted after the Hyde trade that I thought Dorsey traded Hyde to make them have to play Chubb and I just read that that was actually the case. It’s probably even a better setup than Lyndsey last week. Home dog, arguably more talented and definitely more of a big play threat and plays more than Lyndsey. I need to check it out, but Duke playing as a WR a lot, Chubb could in theory get close to bell cow usage, maybe 80% of the runs with a run heavy approach.

    I think it needs to be said, but all along we have known Clev is talented and the coach was the problem. Coach is gone and I get the impression the team didn’t have a whole lot of respect for him either. You might get a max effort game from a talented team making maybe a couple Clev players viable Vs a D that gives up points and production.

    I completely agree that Chubb should feast this week with all the changes, playing the majority of the snaps and going against a bad run D. However I don’t think he will be chalk. The public will see this as Cleveland playing from behind most of the game and will be on the passing options more than they will Chubb. Chubb at 15% seems reasonable.

  • ASitar

    I already have Hunt in my LU. I’m taking out Howard (TY Mike), but I want to put Chubb in (haha). Is it a bad strategy to use two RBs from the same game?

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