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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 10/31
    8:20 PM EST : San Francisco ( -8 ) at Arizona ( 8 ) —- T: 44.5

    Sunday, 11/3
    9:30 AM EST : Houston ( -2.5 ) at Jacksonville ( 2.5 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Indianapolis ( (Pick) ) at Pittsburgh ( (Pick) ) —- T: 42.5
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 10.5 ) at Buffalo ( -10.5 ) —- T: 37
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 3.5 ) at Carolina ( -3.5 ) —- T: 41
    1:00 PM EST : Minnesota ( 0 ) at Kansas City ( 0 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( 5 ) at Philadelphia ( -5 ) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST : NY Jets ( -4.5 ) at Miami ( 4.5 ) —- T: 41.5
    4:05 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 6.5 ) at Seattle ( -6.5 ) —- T: 53
    4:05 PM EST : Detroit ( 2 ) at Oakland ( -2 ) —- T: 51.5
    4:25 PM EST : Cleveland ( 2 ) at Denver ( -2 ) —- T: 43
    4:25 PM EST : Green Bay ( -3 ) at LA Chargers ( 3 ) —- T: 45.5
    8:20 PM EST : New England ( -3.5 ) at Baltimore ( 3.5 ) —- T: 45

    Monday, 11/4
    8:15 PM EST : Dallas ( -7.5 ) at NY Giants ( 7.5 ) —- T: 48

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • ninogarzone

    @mike42 said...

    Tomlin doesn’t care about that stuff. He’s literally last on the list of “don’t overwork your RB’s” coaches. However, I’m never going to be the one to tell you to not fade a guy who is going to be coming off of IR and be 65% owned in GPP’s. In cash, it would just be silly to fade him.

    The fade is justifiable for sure. I could see Samuel’s finishing with maybe 17 points and that isn’t slate breaking at all. Colts numbers are skewed as the heart of their defense Darius Leonard is just returning recently and hooker should be back as well. Colts will stack the box and make unproven Rudolph beat them. Game should be slow as well. I’m not on board of a full fade but there’s plenty of merit to being underweight on Samuel’s off injury.

  • Kingspark35

    ANALYSIS: Samuels will enter the contest without a designation after practising fully Wednesday through Friday following a three-week absence due to a knee scope. While Pittsburgh probably would have preferred to ease Samuels back into the mix in a change-of-pace role, injuries to Conner and third-stringer Benny Snell (knee) — who is listed as out — SHOULD put the North Carolina State product on tap for a significant snap share in Week 9. Samuels demonstrated a high floor over his three starts in place of an injured Conner in 2018, averaging 14 carries for 74.3 yards and four receptions for 35 yards in those contests.
    My emphasis.

  • BIF

    @Csquared1987 said...

    I’m ok with consequences. I know he’s cheap, I know the matchup is decent… but I play mainly high stakes on FD. I don’t see him breaking the slate tomorrow. I feel like he will be eased back in. Throwing him out there for 20+ touches is just not smart.

    On FD he is less appealing as half-PPR hurts some of his value with the game likely lower scoring and his TD equity much lower than in a higher scoring game.

  • mike42

    Man Vs Zone:

    The 3 top man defensive teams are easy to remember because it’s BB and his 2 former DC’s. NE, MIA, and DET.
    Top 5 Man WR’s (per PFF): Mike Evans-1, A. Cooper, Kupp, MT, and NUK.
    Top 5 Zone WR’s: Godwin-1, Terry Mclaurin, Chark, Davante Adams, MT. Yes, MT is just a beast no matter what the D is.
    QB’s that have a definable split in favor of man: TB and NO’s.
    QB’s that have a definable split in favor of zone: Sea, Det, Colts, Balt, Pit, and Buf.

    A lot of the QB splits might just be noise but the WR splits on teams looks to be statistically relevant. One WR gets targeted far more or less depending on the coverage over another WR on the same team.

    The issue is that most teams play a LOT of both coverages but the normal rate is about 2 to 1 zone over man. Det plays the most man (on this full slate, I don’t have data for bye teams) at 60% while Car plays the most zone at 75%. Keep in mind that the total between man and zone does not equal 100%. For instance, Car is 75% zone but only 14% man. I imagine the discrepancy can be found in jumbo packages (i.e. goal to go or short yardage) where no DB’s or WR’s are on the field.

    This weeks most advantageous setups according to WR performance Vs the coverage they will most likely see the most of:

    Godwin Vs Sea’s heavy zone coverage over M. Evans:
    WR rating is 127.70 >Evans 58.50

    TB’s D has a lean towards man and that favors Metcalf (zone favors Lockett):
    Man: Metcalf 112 routes, 30 tgts, 264yds Lockett 126-20-182
    Zone: Metcalf 132-14-138, Lockett 165-27-376

    Indy’s zone D should favor D. Johnson over Juju while the reverse would be true when Pit plays a heavy man D:
    WR ratings vs man: D. Johnson 135 > Juju 62.90
    Vs Zone: Juju 112-28-303yds > DJ 80-17-124yds

    I’m going to keep the rest simple, player A over B; type of coverage:
    Preston Williams > D. Parker—Man
    Z. Pascal > C. Rogers—Zone
    K. Allen > M. Williams— Man

    The issue with a lot of the rest of these is no clear cut defensive scheme even though the WR split is obvious. For example, MJJ is way better Vs man and Goliday is way better Vs Zone but Oak’s D falls somewhere in the middle when it comes to the defensive scheme. Hope that helps.

  • dmac37

    @mike42 said...

    Man Vs Zone:

    The 3 top man defensive teams are easy to remember because it’s BB and his 2 former DC’s. NE, MIA, and DET.
    Top 5 Man WR’s (per PFF): Mike Evans-1, A. Cooper, Kupp, MT, and NUK.
    Top 5 Zone WR’s: Godwin-1, Terry Mclaurin, Chark, Davante Adams, MT. Yes, MT is just a beast no matter what the D is.
    QB’s that have a definable split in favor of man: TB and NO’s.
    QB’s that have a definable split in favor of zone: Sea, Det, Colts, Balt, Pit, and Buf.

    A lot of the QB splits might just be noise but the WR splits on teams looks to be statistically relevant. One WR gets targeted far more or less depending on the coverage over another WR on the same team.

    The issue is that most teams play a LOT of both coverages but the normal rate is about 2 to 1 zone over man. Det plays the most man (on this full slate, I don’t have data for bye teams) at 60% while Car plays the most zone at 75%. Keep in mind that the total between man and zone does not equal 100%. For instance, Car is 75% zone but only 14% man. I imagine the discrepancy can be found in jumbo packages (i.e. goal to go or short yardage) where no DB’s or WR’s are on the field.

    This weeks most advantageous setups according to WR performance Vs the coverage they will most likely see the most of:

    Godwin Vs Sea’s heavy zone coverage over M. Evans:
    WR rating is 127.70 >Evans 58.50

    TB’s D has a lean towards man and that favors Metcalf (zone favors Lockett):
    Man: Metcalf 112 routes, 30 tgts, 264yds Lockett 126-20-182
    Zone: Metcalf 132-14-138, Lockett 165-27-376

    Indy’s zone D should favor D. Johnson over Juju while the reverse would be true when Pit plays a heavy man D:
    WR ratings vs man: D. Johnson 135 > Juju 62.90
    Vs Zone: Juju 112-28-303yds > DJ 80-17-124yds

    I’m going to keep the rest simple, player A over B; type of coverage:
    Preston Williams > D. Parker—Man
    Z. Pascal > C. Rogers—Zone
    K. Allen > M. Williams— Man

    The issue with a lot of the rest of these is no clear cut defensive scheme even though the WR split is obvious. For example, MJJ is way better Vs man and Goliday is way better Vs Zone but Oak’s D falls somewhere in the middle when it comes to the defensive scheme. Hope that helps.

    WOW Mike42 bringing it, some of the best information I have seen on this forum!

    Thank you for this!

  • dmac37

    Mike42, did Cleveland WR’s show anything on this? I have been going back and forth between Landry and D. Johnson in DK cash at the same price point.

  • mike42

    @dmac37 said...

    Mike42, did Cleveland WR’s show anything on this? I have been going back and forth between Landry and D. Johnson in DK cash at the same price point.

    All the clev guys stats suck no matter what the coverage is. No WR has a rating above 73 regardless. I know Fangio plays a zone type hybrid and that would give a slight edge to Landry but it’s not much.

  • Supanice

    That is great post, thanks.

  • 33BeRad

    @BIF said...

    Jacobs is purely a volume play for me as he could see 30 combined touches/targets – Det has always been a decent defense but if you keep pounding it, you eventually get a couple chunk plays.

    I look at the Lions D the same way I look at Fournette; it’s a lotta nothing but stick with it and then eventually you get paid off.

    I’m really liking Jacobs, which could be the kiss of death. HAHA!
    Oakland hasn’t played at home since Sept. 15th, their fans are going to be getting in to the game. Gruden likes to run, I agree the volume will be there. Stafford has a cold so won’t be 100%. They have no run game, even with KJ it wasn’t that good. Oakland does have a bad pass defense but I could see them getting out to a lead and hogging the ball.

    Chubb and Cleveland are in a get right spot. With going to B. Allen at QB, trading away Manny and being 2-6 they could lack motivation. I think Cleveland feeds Chubb and he gets going. I think he could outscore Cook even with Cook’s matchup being better.

    Carolina just got absolutely crushed by SF las week and Tenn has won their last 2 with some luck on their side. Chargers fumbled going in for the go ahead/winning td and TB got screwed by that call on their special teams return td. The line is off and there is no way Carolina is only 1 point better than Tennessee. They might not be coming off a Thursday night loss like that but I like the chances of Panthers bouncing back in a big way. I have a lot of CMC and actually have a lineup with K. Allen/CMC/Olsen. Tenn does have a good run def but can be had passing to RB’s and TE’s(remember last week when people wanted to play Winston and TB TE’s, along with Evans and Godwin? I do)

    I do like A. Jones, this will be like a home game for GB. It is projected to be about 80% Packer fans in LA for this game. He will be hard to fit in because I like the other guys more plus will be mixing in Cook because he does have a good matchup.

    I’ll be under the field on Jaylen as I play on FD and I don’t think this is a smash spot for PItt. He is good salary relief and it’ll all depend on his td’s for FD play.

  • Dr_Gonzo

    @33BeRad said...

    I’m really liking Jacobs, which could be the kiss of death. HAHA!
    Oakland hasn’t played at home since Sept. 15th, their fans are going to be getting in to the game. Gruden likes to run, I agree the volume will be there. Stafford has a cold so won’t be 100%. They have no run game, even with KJ it wasn’t that good. Oakland does have a bad pass defense but I could see them getting out to a lead and hogging the ball.

    Chubb and Cleveland are in a get right spot. With going to B. Allen at QB, trading away Manny and being 2-6 they could lack motivation. I think Cleveland feeds Chubb and he gets going. I think he could outscore Cook even with Cook’s matchup being better.

    Carolina just got absolutely crushed by SF las week and Tenn has won their last 2 with some luck on their side. Chargers fumbled going in for the go ahead/winning td and TB got screwed by that call on their special teams return td. The line is off and there is no way Carolina is only 1 point better than Tennessee. They might not be coming off a Thursday night loss like that but I like the chances of Panthers bouncing back in a big way. I have a lot of CMC and actually have a lineup with K. Allen/CMC/Olsen. Tenn does have a good run def but can be had passing to RB’s and TE’s(remember last week when people wanted to play Winston and TB TE’s, along with Evans and Godwin? I do)

    I do like A. Jones, this will be like a home game for GB. It is projected to be about 80% Packer fans in LA for this game. He will be hard to fit in because I like the other guys more plus will be mixing in Cook because he does have a good matchup.

    I’ll be under the field on Jaylen as I play on FD and I don’t think this is a smash spot for PItt. He is good salary relief and it’ll all depend on his td’s for FD play.

    Good stuff, I’ll play a little devil’s advocate. Jacobs is missing 2 starting OL, if they were heathy I’ve got no problems with him. As a bronco fan, the run has really been shut down after fournette went off. Mack had a decent day, and I do think chubb is a damn good rb, but I don’t see him exploding in this game. I also like jones and also feel like going under on Samuels. It’s not the best matchup, he’s coming off surgery, and if he’s 50% owned he could take out a lot of the field if he’s injured again or gets stuffed by indy.

  • Dunzor

    In case you were planning to play the CAR defense, this is relevant as they’ll be without one of their best pass rushers: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27989381/panthers-mario-addison-vs-titans-brother-death

  • mike42

    @dmac37 said...

    WOW Mike42 bringing it, some of the best information I have seen on this forum!

    Thank you for this!

    Reasons to believe Ebron should be on everyone’s list too. Zone coverage- 66-18-199 while doing nothing in man coverage. Pit has given up the 5th most points to TE’s over the last 4 weeks.

    D. Henry— Ten runs zone blocking at the second-highest clip and Car is 6th worse at stopping it. Also, Car has given up the second most 10 yd + runs.

  • realphipps

    Mike,

    How do the numbers look with Ebron vs Doyle?

    Reading some blurbs/tout talk that Doyle will be featured tomorrow.

    I’m concerned Pitt will use Minkah to minimize one of them with man coverage (even with the rest of the coverage, or 1/2 field is running a zone tech)

  • mike42

    @realphipps said...

    Mike,

    How do the numbers look with Ebron vs Doyle?

    Reading some blurbs/tout talk that Doyle will be featured tomorrow.

    I’m concerned Pitt will use Minkah to minimize one of them with man coverage (even with the rest of the coverage, or 1/2 field is running a zone tech)

    VS Zone:

    Doyle 72 routes 13 tgts 95 yds
    Ebron 66-18-199

    It’s not even close, Ebron wins all day and he only has 25 yds Vs man on 51 routes. Ebron is the sharp pivot tomorrow whether it comes in or not.

  • realphipps

    I haven’t seen it mentioned anywhere, but no Jurrell Casey for the Titans tomorrow is huge news. An elite interior force, an elite run stuffer. Their first game without him this year. The one game he missed last year (Week 17) Marlon Mack went over 100 yards with a TD at nearly 5 yards per carry.

  • mr_papageorgio

    @realphipps said...

    I haven’t seen it mentioned anywhere, but no Jurrell Casey for the Titans tomorrow is huge news. An elite interior force, an elite run stuffer. Their first game without him this year. The one game he missed last year (Week 17) Marlon Mack went over 100 yards with a TD at nearly 5 yards per carry.

    Does it matter? CMC is already gonna be 95% owned because of Samuels lol

  • Supanice

    Anyone have a WR play at or below $3600 for cash besides Chester Rogers?

  • timusbr

    just checking in as I make my LU’s and got to ask if anyone feels the same as me.

    I just dont like DFS this week. I dont like the stacks I came up with. I am heavy on RB’s, WR’s are question marks and the QB’s I think are DFS Pts friendly, They dont have clear cut WR’s, it easily could be the other guy. Another words, I see issues at every position. Just withdrew from all my Mayo and Edge contests and settling in for $1 single entries across all the slates. I guess for me its a showdown week and sportsbook (looking at predominantly unders)

  • realphipps

    @mr_papageorgio said...

    Does it matter? CMC is already gonna be 95% owned because of Samuels lol

    I don’t see that at all. It will elevate CMac and Cook’s ownership some, will elevate Raiders/Lions, Seahawks/Bucs pieces some.

    I’d like to see some other projections out there, but I’ve got CMac at 16-20% in GPPs.

    No Casey helps CMac, but it also helps CAR’s deep passing game while simultaneously hurting TEN’s pass rush.

  • keephustlincuz

    @Supanice said...

    Anyone have a WR play at or below $3600 for cash besides Chester Rogers?

    Moore or Wright.

    Seems like you are pretty deep in the weeds.

  • TJRhodes

    Anyone have the Beast of the week and Awesemo’s fade? I missed them.

  • squidkill

    @timusbr said...

    just checking in as I make my LU’s and got to ask if anyone feels the same as me.

    I just dont like DFS this week. I dont like the stacks I came up with. I am heavy on RB’s, WR’s are question marks and the QB’s I think are DFS Pts friendly, They dont have clear cut WR’s, it easily could be the other guy. Another words, I see issues at every position. Just withdrew from all my Mayo and Edge contests and settling in for $1 single entries across all the slates. I guess for me its a showdown week and sportsbook (looking at predominantly unders)

    Wow this was a Debbie downer post. $1 single entries and betting unders. You must be a ton of fun at parties. Thanks for dropping in zippy

  • S7ubs

    @Dunzor said...

    In case you were planning to play the CAR defense, this is relevant as they’ll be without one of their best pass rushers: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27989381/panthers-mario-addison-vs-titans-brother-death

    Doesn’t get me off them. Appreciate the info though. Titans missing Ben Jones. Their OL already a mess now gonna have another OL change.

  • keephustlincuz

    @squidkill said...

    Wow this was a Debbie downer post. $1 single entries and betting unders. You must be a ton of fun at parties. Thanks for dropping in zippy

    I’m kinda drunk. Let’s make a line up squid.

    We can alternate picking 2 players.

    Go ahead.

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