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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 10/5
    8:20 PM EST : Green Bay ( -2.5 ) at San Francisco ( 2.5 ) —- T: 51

    Sunday, 10/8
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( 6 ) at Tennessee ( -6 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -3 ) at Indianapolis ( 3 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Denver ( 4 ) at Atlanta ( -4 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( -6.5 ) at Jacksonville ( 6.5 ) —- T: 51
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( 11.5 ) at Kansas City ( -11.5 ) —- T: 51
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 3.5 ) at Minnesota ( -3.5 ) —- T: 53.5
    1:00 PM EST : NY Giants ( 3.5 ) at Washington ( -3.5 ) —- T: 43
    1:00 PM EST : Seattle ( -3 ) at Buffalo ( 3 ) —- T: 51
    4:05 PM EST : Las Vegas ( 1.5 ) at LA Chargers ( -1.5 ) —- T: 52.5
    4:25 PM EST : Miami ( 4.5 ) at Arizona ( -4.5 ) —- T: 48
    4:25 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 0 ) at Dallas ( 0 ) —- T: —
    8:20 PM EST : New Orleans ( 4 ) at Tampa Bay ( -4 ) —- T: 54.5

    Monday, 10/9
    8:15 PM EST : New England ( -7.5 ) at NY Jets ( 7.5 ) —- T: 41.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • monarch

    If Keenan Allen has the rona then the key to the slate IMO is accurately correlating the LV-LAC game.

  • viciousphilpy

    @miggs6876 said...

    I hate paying up for defenses. How can I not click on the Steelers? Talk me off them?

    The Cardinals are 41% cheaper on DK.

    This means that for each 10 points the Steelers get, the Cardinals only have to get more than 6 points to make the value favor the Cardinals.

    The Cowboys are 59% cheaper. For every 10 points the Steelers Defense gets, the Cowboys only have to get 4 points.

    This means that there is a range of possibilities that the Steelers score a Defensive TD (and put up 20 points), and the Cowboys end up a better defense by giving up one less TD (the Steelers Defensive TD would take a TD off the Cowboy’s D Ledger) and having a generally average week, surrendering 20 points with a forced turnover and two sacks (5 points).

    If the Steelers have a clean game on Defense and they don’t get a TD, they would get:
    4 points for giving up a single TD
    5 sacks for 5 points
    4 points for 2 INTS
    2 points for a forced fumble
    —————————
    grand total of 15 points…

    at which point the Cowboys would only need 4 points on D to be the optimal choice.

  • jdtrey

    @mike42 said...

    I was reading the POWN and just be careful with Julio chalk week. Outside of the fact he busts as chalk seemingly every time, if memory serves me correctly, Fangio does a great job at limiting production from number 1 WR’s, or at least he had up until this year. Not the worse idea to go over on the “other” ATL pass catchers.

    I remember posting about him Vs number 1’s all the time and he batted close to 100% at making them bust.

    Fangio’s a great coach but ~18% isn’t that bad, I wouldn’t play him in cash if I even did but he’s an amazing GPP play. I’ll take my chances all day on the WR with the most yards per game in NFL history vs Michael Ojemudia

  • squidkill

    to those of you who want to play a 5k defense. go into the box of shame
    u are all sheep who has learned nothing
    i have bit my tounge too long
    u know better than this u are better than this

    also send it … squidcity12 (except for the texas pride guy who every sunday morning i go and accept his h2h and it’s WITHDRAWN

  • synth

    For me this week in GPPs (doing 150 entries):

    I’ll be underweight on Cook and overweight on Theilen and Jefferson due to the ownership being significantly heavier on Cook. There are a lot of good RB options this week and both Theilen/Jefferson has potential at slate breaking results at much lower ownership.

    I will be massively overweight on Diggs (he will be my most owned non-QB) while being underweight on the Seattle running game. I think last week resulted in big numbers from Dallas late due to a blowout and I don’t think that will be the case this week. The offense will run through Russ and if Dallas is going to be 17% owned I’m going to nearly fade him. As for Diggs, he is a target beast against a terrible secondary getting eaten up every week and should be a high scoring affair. My two highest owned QBs will be Russ and Allen.

    I will be massively overweight on CMC and Henry. Due to being underweight on Cook I’ll be able to pivot to other talented, lower owned RBs in good spots. CMC is currently coming in at 7% according to Hazy and I’ll be at about 20%. I am not worried about them easing CMC back in. Henry is ripe for this game: a good spot to just let him run over people in a low scoring grind it out game. At only 9% owned he’s a great play if you think 125/2 is in play (and I certainly do).

    I’ll be heavily underweight on David Johnson. Coming in currently at 15%, he’s not very good anymore and I project this game to be a pretty big dud. Hou with no LBs + a Jax backup should see a lot of Robinson handoffs chewing up the clock with some long, sustained drives from the Jax end.

    just where im at on a few things

  • rjschick92

    @Ryan1313 said...

    You brave enough for a Theilien/Cousin stacks in GPP haha?

    The last Cousins/Stafford matchup ended up 42-30 with each QB throwing for 4 TD’s.

    Although Cook also had a monster game in that one, Cousins figures to give you way better value. Especially since the Vikings secondary is so undermanned, I could see Lions taking a lead early.

  • miggs6876

    @mike42 said...

    AFor GPP’s, play some Dal D. If PIT does what it always does in these spots, Ben will have a bad game and Dal will run a lot. Gain nice leverage.

    So far everything is about that SEA game and PITD/Conner. If this is the average DFS week, most or all of those plays will flop. Stack LV/LAC and play the Dal D. It would put you in better position to win a lot of $$ than everyone who does the opposite.

    Wow. Mike that is some valuable advice whether it works out or not. As an “average Joe” player, I would have not have gotten to the Dallas D. Thanks for helping me think differently.

  • mike42

    @winnerchickendinner said...

    Yeah Denvers weird in how they arent that good on D but still dont allow big games from skill players that often

    PFF has them ranked third on D. Good vs run and in coverage. They also literally have Julio as the poster child for blowING up this week. So, who knows. The one thing I;m certain about is Julio sans Ridley is the poster child for Fangio blowing up a lot of Julio LU’s.

  • damionismyname

    how many Luton stacks are too many Luton stacks? Asking for a friend…..

  • rjschick92

    Buffalo’s offense has looked like junk the last 4 weeks, I’m not sure why people are so heavy on Diggs this week. Especially because he just put up a dud 2 weeks ago in a smash spot against the Jets.

    Planning on going back to Tyreek. There’s some kind of idea out there that the Panthers can limit passing attacks which is not really accurate at all. I see they got smashed by Evans, Allen, Ridley, and Julio and Mahomes is capable of putting up monster lines against anybody – see the KC/Baltimore game.

  • damionismyname

    Luton to Eiffert wombo combo…..a little baby shark in there and you got the gpp winner….lol

  • miggs6876

    @billythekidcowboysheat said...

    I’m probaly going all in on both, but playing them with allen or russ, well i may have a couple allen qb lu.

    I’ve had cook all week, had him all last week but i really like wr spots this week even in the flex.
    Cant fit them all.

    Keep in mind that Buffalo can not stop the run. You may see a Kansas City type game. Doesn’t mean Seattle receivers won’t do well but it will cap their ceiling.

  • Dfspacman

    Are Michael Thomas and Mccaffery likely to get close to their usual workload

  • theIrrigator

    @rjschick92 said...

    Buffalo’s offense has looked like junk the last 4 weeks, I’m not sure why people are so heavy on Diggs this week.

    Have you seen the Seattle Defense?

  • mike42

    @rjschick92 said...

    The last Cousins/Stafford matchup ended up 42-30 with each QB throwing for 4 TD’s.

    Although Cook also had a monster game in that one, Cousins figures to give you way better value. Especially since the Vikings secondary is so undermanned, I could see Lions taking a lead early.

    Stafford seems the obvious choice for the big day. Minny doesn’t want to put the ball in his (cousins) hands, DET does want Stafford to win games. He doesn’t need to practice to beat the minny secondary minus 3 cb’s. Patricia had a quote that read something like Stafford would be ready to play if you called him out of the blue in March. The total bumped up 2 pts already today and I’d guess it lands pretty close to the SEA game by tomorrow. It kind of got that late news thing going for it since nobody was stacking it before the Stafford news today.

  • miggs6876

    @viciousphilpy said...

    The Cardinals are 41% cheaper on DK.

    This means that for each 10 points the Steelers get, the Cardinals only have to get more than 6 points to make the value favor the Cardinals.

    The Cowboys are 59% cheaper. For every 10 points the Steelers Defense gets, the Cowboys only have to get 4 points.

    This means that there is a range of possibilities that the Steelers score a Defensive TD (and put up 20 points), and the Cowboys end up a better defense by giving up one less TD (the Steelers Defensive TD would take a TD off the Cowboy’s D Ledger) and having a generally average week, surrendering 20 points with a forced turnover and two sacks (5 points).

    If the Steelers have a clean game on Defense and they don’t get a TD, they would get:
    4 points for giving up a single TD
    5 sacks for 5 points
    4 points for 2 INTS
    2 points for a forced fumble
    —————————
    grand total of 15 points…

    at which point the Cowboys would only need 4 points on D to be the optimal choice.

    Great analysis. Thanks

  • superjon

    We’re still talking about the Dallas D?

    Also, that Gators offense is putting on a clinic.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @mike42 said...

    Stafford seems the obvious choice for the big day. Minny doesn’t want to put the ball in his hands, DET does want Stafford to win games. He doesn’t need to practice to beat the minny secondary minus 3 cb’s. Patricia had a quote that read something like Stafford would be ready to play if you called him out of the blue in March. The total bumped up 2 pts already today and I’d guess it lands pretty close to the SEA game by tomorrow. It kind of got that late news thing going for it since nobody was stacking it before the Stafford news today.

    Aren’t you concerned about pace in this game? Minnesota operates at the eighth-slowest situation-neutral pace, and their contests average the seventh-fewest combined plays (125.7). They hand off at, by far, the league’s highest situation-neutral rate (57%). The Lions don’t average many plays (25th most) and they don’t score many points per game (18th most). On Sunday, the Lions ran only 22 first-half plays. They handed off on four of their first six first-downs, for zero total yards. Neither QB has been particularly efficient this season and neither Zimmer or Patricia seem inclined play up tempo

  • superjon

    Any chance FD or DK adds Dez Bryant to the player pool?

  • squidkill

    Mike, if i put in a full nights work, how many DK crowns can I get at my local rest stop?

    asking for a friend

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @squidkill said...

    Mike, if i put in a full nights work, how many DK crowns can I get at my local rest stop?

    asking for a friend

    He just got back to the forum

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @superjon said...

    Any chance FD or DK adds Dez Bryant to the player pool?

    Is this how Bal/Harbaugh fix the Brown squeaky wheel narrative. Bring in another mouth to feed?

  • Longshots1234

    mike 42 what are your best bets for games and props

  • Bnett2210

    @squidkill said...

    to those of you who want to play a 5k defense. go into the box of shame
    u are all sheep who has learned nothing
    i have bit my tounge too long
    u know better than this u are better than this

    also send it … squidcity12 (except for the texas pride guy who every sunday morning i go and accept his h2h and it’s WITHDRAWN

    Where you looking at for cash, Squid? I’ve had some cash builds I like with Cook/Edmonds/Conner and then the Cook/Edmonds/Jackson or David Johnson route.

    I’ve saw a group of guys on some other groups post there cash lineups and had Trey Burton in the flex and I immediately thought this would be the perfect, “send it Squidcity” spot right here lol

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    Luton for the money
    Super Genius

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