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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 10/5
    8:20 PM EST : Green Bay ( -2.5 ) at San Francisco ( 2.5 ) —- T: 51

    Sunday, 10/8
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( 6 ) at Tennessee ( -6 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -3 ) at Indianapolis ( 3 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Denver ( 4 ) at Atlanta ( -4 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( -6.5 ) at Jacksonville ( 6.5 ) —- T: 51
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( 11.5 ) at Kansas City ( -11.5 ) —- T: 51
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 3.5 ) at Minnesota ( -3.5 ) —- T: 53.5
    1:00 PM EST : NY Giants ( 3.5 ) at Washington ( -3.5 ) —- T: 43
    1:00 PM EST : Seattle ( -3 ) at Buffalo ( 3 ) —- T: 51
    4:05 PM EST : Las Vegas ( 1.5 ) at LA Chargers ( -1.5 ) —- T: 52.5
    4:25 PM EST : Miami ( 4.5 ) at Arizona ( -4.5 ) —- T: 48
    4:25 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 0 ) at Dallas ( 0 ) —- T: —
    8:20 PM EST : New Orleans ( 4 ) at Tampa Bay ( -4 ) —- T: 54.5

    Monday, 10/9
    8:15 PM EST : New England ( -7.5 ) at NY Jets ( 7.5 ) —- T: 41.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • Randallus

    @mike42 said...

    My first tidbit all year; aren’t you guys a little worried that Sea’s gameplan will be a little like KC’s was Vs Buf? I know they are letting Russ cook this year but it makes total sense to run it 35x this game and keep their D off of the field as much as possible and you can’t be surprised if that’s what they do.

    Sup guys. I’ve been just focusing on betting on games and I’m killing it. I could not figure out a way to consistently win at DFS which sucked given the ridiculous amount of time I put in. Hope you guys are doing well.

    A mike42 sighting.

  • winnerchickendinner

    @mike42 said...

    My first tidbit all year; aren’t you guys a little worried that Sea’s gameplan will be a little like KC’s was Vs Buf? I know they are letting Russ cook this year but it makes total sense to run it 35x this game and keep their D off of the field as much as possible and you can’t be surprised if that’s what they do.

    Sup guys. I’ve been just focusing on betting on games and I’m killing it. I could not figure out a way to consistently win at DFS which sucked given the ridiculous amount of time I put in. Hope you guys are doing well.

    I can totally see that as Sea would probably be able to strike first and try to control the clock. Would make Dallas a good low owned play, but there are a lot of backs that could smash this week.

  • lotusbomb

    @Randallus said...

    That’s within the realm of possibility though right?

    If there’s a higher-than-normal chance of a defense getting 20 points, I have to throw a few shares that way.

    Almost any defense can get 20 points on any given Sunday. But the Steelers have the highest chance this week.

    zeke’s fumbling issues, a third string QB, porous O-line against an elite front seven.

    Normally I would absolutely refuse to pay 5k for a defense, but I’ll have at least some this weekend

  • squidkill

    MIKE 42!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WHAT UP PLAYBOY????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! What a surprise!!

  • theIrrigator

    @Texaspridejb said...

    Any super low value at RB this week?

    Pope?

  • Bnett2210

    @mike42 said...

    My first tidbit all year; aren’t you guys a little worried that Sea’s gameplan will be a little like KC’s was Vs Buf? I know they are letting Russ cook this year but it makes total sense to run it 35x this game and keep their D off of the field as much as possible and you can’t be surprised if that’s what they do.

    Sup guys. I’ve been just focusing on betting on games and I’m killing it. I could not figure out a way to consistently win at DFS which sucked given the ridiculous amount of time I put in. Hope you guys are doing well.

    I agree, that would be a good strategy as long as the backs are all back and healthy. It’s something that Dallas should’ve been doing prior to Dak injury too.

    Glad to hear the betting side of it is working out for you though, we’ve missed some of the good info you give out buddy, but I don’t blame ya man it’s like torture sometimes with the time and $ put in to not get the love back in return that you want. Keep that betting on point, I’d be interested in some of the bets you like if you do stay around and drop some knowledge again.

  • theIrrigator

    @winnerchickendinner said...

    Williams is out and the packers are uneasy about Jones playing either on Thursday. And Crosby is apparently only kicking XPs because of a calf injury. Might be the most injured showdown to date.

    I went 100% on Jones for the Mon-Thur slate. Really thought he would be good to go

  • Bnett2210

    I’m not saying it will happen, but every year with Tomlin the team has been known to play down or lose games to below .500 teams. I’m not saying this is what is going to happen, but just know that it’s a possibility especially these next 3 game stretch of the Cowboys, Bengals, Jags. I hope they take care of business, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they have a trap game here soon where they just come out flat and get beat.

    The D should force some sacks and TO’s though, but I just wouldn’t be surprised if it’s not a crazy high FPTS output.

  • Bnett2210

    Saw questions about cheaper RB’s, thoughts on Justin Jackson on DK for 4.9 against LVR?? It possible he gets 20+ touches/Targets again??

  • mike42

    @thenefariousone said...

    mike42 just do what you are making $$ at

    I couldn’t win at DFS but gambling has never been easier with deposit bonuses and same game parlays. It was +330 on FD if Gronk caught a TD and TB won last night. I got minus 160 on Brady throwing over 1 TD’s. They had a crappy game and it all still came in. It’s ridiculous the stuff they let you parlay together even if it’s highly correlated. I bet more of that stuff than the actual game. One of the reasons I logged on is a lot of the bets you can make is related to DFS.

  • mike42

    @squidkill said...

    MIKE 42!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WHAT UP PLAYBOY????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! What a surprise!!

    How you doing buddy? You having a good enough year to spring for a whole new collection of tight whities?

    BIF, who you like this week betting wise?

  • kps3205s

    @squidkill said...

    I was liking James Robinson a ton.

    The match up is perfect. My problem with him is the lack of commitment by the OC in the red zone to use him. 13 rushes inside the 20 for 4 TD in 7 games with only 2 of those rushes inside the 5 and 2 others inside the 10. 3 targets and 3 receptions in the red zone in 7 games for 2 TD.

    As a single LU guy I’m not touching him.

    So is he worth $7k vs DJ on the other side for $1400 less, maybe CEH for $900 less, Josh Jacobs for $700 less? The highest I would go is James Conner for 100 less specifically in my single LU.

  • squidkill

    Plugging away- Seems to be a 2 steps forward 1 step back kind of year-

    You see DEEBO in those gambling streets?? I think he and Vegas Dave are living together in outside of Reno on all the whale plays he hits.

  • lotusbomb

    @Bnett2210 said...

    I’m not saying it will happen, but every year with Tomlin the team has been known to play down or lose games to below .500 teams. I’m not saying this is what is going to happen, but just know that it’s a possibility especially these next 3 game stretch of the Cowboys, Bengals, Jags. I hope they take care of business, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they have a trap game here soon where they just come out flat and get beat.

    The D should force some sacks and TO’s though, but I just wouldn’t be surprised if it’s not a crazy high FPTS output.

    I absolutely think that trap game is against the bengals. the bengals aren’t that bad, of course they’d start slow with a rookie QB to start the year. lost 3 games to good ravens and browns teams, colts had to come back on them and they beat the titans outright.

    the cowboys have weapons, but they don’t have the ravens run game. either the cowboys punt the game and try to remain balanced on offense no matter what and the steelers keep them under 10 points or they air it out 35+ times score 6-10 more points but give up a bunch of sacks and a couple INT

  • mike42

    @Bnett2210 said...

    I’m not saying it will happen, but every year with Tomlin the team has been known to play down or lose games to below .500 teams. I’m not saying this is what is going to happen, but just know that it’s a possibility especially these next 3 game stretch of the Cowboys, Bengals, Jags. I hope they take care of business, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they have a trap game here soon where they just come out flat and get beat.

    The D should force some sacks and TO’s though, but I just wouldn’t be surprised if it’s not a crazy high FPTS output.

    I’m with you. The week after the BALT/PIT game everyone should be at least trying to find reasons to look for letdowns for both squads which could potentially put guys on the other side in play. . I just read something about how teams have sucked the week after they’ve played PIT.

  • kps3205s

    @Joeltimb said...

    So what do we know about this new QB in Jacksonville?

    Rookie 6th rounder. Not holding my breath.

  • Bnett2210

    @mike42 said...

    I’m with you. The week after the BALT/PIT game everyone should be at least trying to find reasons to look for letdowns for both squads which could potentially put guys on the other side in play. . I just read something about how teams have sucked the week after they’ve played PIT.

    Yeop the Baltimore game, I’m guessing cause the rivalry and how hyped they get for it and they seem to try and bring a little more physicality in the game against each other, but the week after Baltimore or the week after a bye it just seems Tomlin led teams have a bad game.

  • winnerchickendinner

    @mike42 said...

    I couldn’t win at DFS but gambling has never been easier with deposit bonuses and same game parlays. It was +330 on FD if Gronk caught a TD and TB won last night. I got minus 160 on Brady throwing over 1 TD’s. They had a crappy game and it all still came in. It’s ridiculous the stuff they let you parlay together even if it’s highly correlated. I bet more of that stuff than the actual game. One of the reasons I logged on is a lot of the bets you can make is related to DFS.

    Just got on Fanduel sportsbook and the same game parlay is much welcomed. Came a couple of plays short of hitting it big Monday night but ready for Thursday.

  • Bnett2210

    @lotusbomb said...

    I absolutely think that trap game is against the bengals. the bengals aren’t that bad, of course they’d start slow with a rookie QB to start the year. lost 3 games to good ravens and browns teams, colts had to come back on them and they beat the titans outright.

    the cowboys have weapons, but they don’t have the ravens run game. either the cowboys punt the game and try to remain balanced on offense no matter what and the steelers keep them under 10 points or they air it out 35+ times score 6-10 more points but give up a bunch of sacks and a couple INT

    Yea I think it is the Cincy game too, for all the reason you said. If the Cincy game was this week after the Baltimore game, as bad as id hate to do it I’d say Cincy would win. After a bye and after Ravens game the team seems to come out flat or just not look the same at all. It’s been a trend and we’ve saw over Tomlin’s tenure that against below .500 teams the team plays down to the competition is what seems to happen a lot. I hope they don’t give Cincy the chance to knock them off the undefeated streak (as long as beat Dallas) I live in OH and I couldn’t take the amount of talking coming from Bengals fans after that one lol. It would be like their Super Bowl giving Pitt the first L of the year.

  • mike42

    @mike42 said...

    How you doing buddy? You having a good enough year to spring for a whole new collection of tight whities?

    BIF, who you like this week betting wise?

    Still early but I like WASH even though I have not followed them closely so I still got work to do. Just a great setup. They just played them, are coming off of a bye while the Giants just overachieved on MNF. It’s strictly a setup call so far. Something tells me that SF finds a way to put up a good fight with GB having to travel on a short week. I got GB 2 but I’ll go the other way if the line gets inflated.

    Honestly, the best bets are the same game parlays and live bets. I like SEA but if BUF jumps out to an early lead, which is entirely possible with the early start for a west coast team coming off of a division game, and you can get SEA plus some points (4-7+) during the game, you do it. I’d do the same thing if I can get BUF plus a TD during the game. I got paid +1260 on the Denver win. I’m sure BIF would agree, there is never been a better time to bet on football.

    Are there less people playing DFS since a lot of states have begun to allow sports gambling?

  • mike42

    @winnerchickendinner said...

    Just got on Fanduel sportsbook and the same game parlay is much welcomed. Came a couple of plays short of hitting it big Monday night but ready for Thursday.

    Same thing. Needed Fournette to get 1/2 yard more receiving but unlike DFS, it really feels like it’s just a matter of time before you hit a 5 way, highly correlated, parlay @ 14-1 odds.

  • Bnett2210

    @mike42 said...

    Same thing. Needed Fournette to get 1/2 yard more receiving but unlike DFS, it really feels like it’s just a matter of time before you hit a 5 way, highly correlated, parlay @ 14-1 odds.

    So, you like doing the player props and in game bets better than spread stuff. Like the ones you can correlate??

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    My first tidbit all year; aren’t you guys a little worried that Sea’s gameplan will be a little like KC’s was Vs Buf? I know they are letting Russ cook this year but it makes total sense to run it 35x this game and keep their D off of the field as much as possible and you can’t be surprised if that’s what they do.

    Sup guys. I’ve been just focusing on betting on games and I’m killing it. I could not figure out a way to consistently win at DFS which sucked given the ridiculous amount of time I put in. Hope you guys are doing well.

    Holy snap it’s Mike !!

  • Gtzerphy

    @mike42 said...

    My first tidbit all year; aren’t you guys a little worried that Sea’s gameplan will be a little like KC’s was Vs Buf? I know they are letting Russ cook this year but it makes total sense to run it 35x this game and keep their D off of the field as much as possible and you can’t be surprised if that’s what they do.

    Sup guys. I’ve been just focusing on betting on games and I’m killing it. I could not figure out a way to consistently win at DFS which sucked given the ridiculous amount of time I put in. Hope you guys are doing well.

    Great to see you back Mike, glad to hear you’re doing well betting outside of DFS. I’ve been trending in the same direction since Sportsbook is now legal in PA.

  • mike42

    @Bnett2210 said...

    So, you like doing the player props and in game bets better than spread stuff. Like the ones you can correlate??

    It’s not really a matter of like, it’s a matter of odds. YOu can parlay something like:

    Over Brady passing yds+ over Gronk receiving yds + over Scotty Miller receiving yds and get like +500 odds.

    Those are correlated and you still get odds as if they were not. If that game went to overtime last night or was more of a shootout, I would have just crushed it instead of having a good night. You throw in Gronk (+170) catching a TD or G. Tate (+300) into parlays and you get paid incredible odds on stuff that is correlated. I think only FD’s sportsbook does it, but all it takes is 1 night when a lot of people smash and to have them in a parlay. I’m not a 100% certain, but I would guess on a lot of my bets, the odds are actually in my favor. They are offering something that is -even do get customers.

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