NFL FORUM

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, November 4th
    8:20 PM EST : NY Jets ( 10.5 ) at Indianapolis ( -10.5 ) —- T: 46.5

    Sunday, November 7th
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( 7 ) at Miami ( -7 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Minnesota ( 6 ) at Baltimore ( -6 ) —- T: 50
    1:00 PM EST : Denver ( 7.5 ) at Dallas ( -7.5 ) —- T: 49.5
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( 2.5 ) at Cincinnati ( -2.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 5 ) at New Orleans ( -5 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : Las Vegas ( -3 ) at NY Giants ( 3 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : New England ( -3 ) at Carolina ( 3 ) —- T: 43
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( -14 ) at Jacksonville ( 14 ) —- T: 48.5
    4:05 PM EST : LA Chargers ( -3 ) at Philadelphia ( 3 ) —- T: 50.5
    4:25 PM EST : Arizona ( -2.5 ) at San Francisco ( 2.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    4:25 PM EST : Green Bay ( 3 ) at Kansas City ( -3 ) —- T: 55.5
    8:20 PM EST : Tennessee ( 6.5 ) at LA Rams ( -6.5 ) —- T: 54

    Monday, November 8th
    8:15 PM EST : Chicago ( 6.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -6.5 ) —- T: 40

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • Agent47

    On the DK main slate, my favorite defense is the Miami Dolphins at $3,100. They’re the 3rd largest favorite on the slate at home against a terrible Texans team but nearly $1,000 cheaper than the biggest favorite on the board, which is Buffalo. The Dolphins pass rush isn’t great (27th in adjusted sack rate), which is the only real knock against them in this matchup. But the Texans give up sacks at a pretty good clip (24th in adjusted sack rate allowed), and they have a turnover differential of -4, which is the third worst on the slate. In their 4 road games this year, the Texans have allowed opposing defenses to score 7 (CLE), 23 (BUF), 15 (IND), and 11(ARI) DK points against them. Their average margin of defeat in those 4 games has been a whopping 26 points, with the closest being a 10-point loss to the Browns all the way back in Week 2. All in all, I believe Miami’s D has a good chance of posting 10+ points in this spot.

    If you’re looking for someone a little cheaper, the Panthers are $2,600 and coming off of a game where they sacked Matt Ryan 3 times and picked him off twice. They’ve been at or near the top of the league in adjusted sack rate basically all season long and are currently ranked 1st. The Patriots are right around league average in adjusted sack rate allowed (15th), and they don’t turn the ball over a lot (+1 turnover differential). Therefore, there are some things working against the Panthers D here. Plus, the Panthers are 4.5 underdogs. However, they are playing at home. And this game has the lowest total of the slate. So, I still think the potential is there for the Panthers to pay off that salary.

    Last but not least, if you’re looking for a really cheap punt option, I would look at the Minnesota Vikings at $2,200. It’s a matchup of the 2nd best adjusted sack rate against the Ravens adjusted sack rate, which ranks 28th in the league. It’ll also be interesting to see how well the Vikings do against Lamar Jackson on the ground as they are top 10 in limiting both rushing attempts and yards by opposing QBs. Obviously, the risk is high with the Vikings being 5.5 point underdogs on the road in a game with one of the higher totals on the slate. But if their strong pass rush can take advantage of an O-line that has been shaky in pass protection, maybe they can rack up some sacks and even cause Jackson to cough it up or throw some picks while under duress.

  • marker0357

    @BlueEdwards said...

    Let’s go Brandon!

    hahahaha

  • odanny

    @blueslikehail said...

    No surprise this board is dead

    No doubt.

  • superjon

    Michael Thomas done for the season.

  • osuryanf

    @superjon said...

    Michael Thomas done for the season.

    No surprise here, I’m not sure the dude even wants to play football anymore. He’s super woke though so he always has that to fall back on.

  • zeeshan2

    Wow Rodgers out on Sunday

  • marker0357

    @osuryanf said...

    No surprise here, I’m not sure the dude even wants to play football anymore. He’s super woke though so he always has that to fall back on.

    maybe he can hang with Kap

  • bigwillie20

    @zeeshan2 said...

    Wow Rodgers out on Sunday

    Jordan Love only $4,400 on DK

  • blakevoiles

    @Agent47 said...

    On the DK main slate, my favorite defense is the Miami Dolphins at $3,100. They’re the 3rd largest favorite on the slate at home against a terrible Texans team but nearly $1,000 cheaper than the biggest favorite on the board, which is Buffalo. The Dolphins pass rush isn’t great (27th in adjusted sack rate), which is the only real knock against them in this matchup. But the Texans give up sacks at a pretty good clip (24th in adjusted sack rate allowed), and they have a turnover differential of -4, which is the third worst on the slate. In their 4 road games this year, the Texans have allowed opposing defenses to score 7 (CLE), 23 (BUF), 15 (IND), and 11(ARI) DK points against them. Their average margin of defeat in those 4 games has been a whopping 26 points, with the closest being a 10-point loss to the Browns all the way back in Week 2. All in all, I believe Miami’s D has a good chance of posting 10+ points in this spot.

    If you’re looking for someone a little cheaper, the Panthers are $2,600 and coming off of a game where they sacked Matt Ryan 3 times and picked him off twice. They’ve been at or near the top of the league in adjusted sack rate basically all season long and are currently ranked 1st. The Patriots are right around league average in adjusted sack rate allowed (15th), and they don’t turn the ball over a lot (+1 turnover differential). Therefore, there are some things working against the Panthers D here. Plus, the Panthers are 4.5 underdogs. However, they are playing at home. And this game has the lowest total of the slate. So, I still think the potential is there for the Panthers to pay off that salary.

    Last but not least, if you’re looking for a really cheap punt option, I would look at the Minnesota Vikings at $2,200. It’s a matchup of the 2nd best adjusted sack rate against the Ravens adjusted sack rate, which ranks 28th in the league. It’ll also be interesting to see how well the Vikings do against Lamar Jackson on the ground as they are top 10 in limiting both rushing attempts and yards by opposing QBs. Obviously, the risk is high with the Vikings being 5.5 point underdogs on the road in a game with one of the higher totals on the slate. But if their strong pass rush can take advantage of an O-line that has been shaky in pass protection, maybe they can rack up some sacks and even cause Jackson to cough it up or throw some picks while under duress.

    I’m interested in the Dolphins if Mills is still playing. Not as much with Tyrod back. Panthers do interest me. No interest in Vikings D without Hunter. I think that game is a shootout and I’ll probably stack it honestly.

  • bazerko

    Chiefs terrible defense in play now?

  • dominicanpapi

    Kinda weird he lied/omitting he wasn’t vaxxed, but Green Bay should be thankful its midseason and not Super Bowl week.

    Edit: And I get content creation, but this is why its almost pointless to talk about the slate 6 days in advance when there’s so much going on during the week. Do we know if Adams is even playing?

  • winnerchickendinner

    @bigwillie20 said...

    Jordan Love only $4,400 on DK

    Well looks like Adams is out of play unless Love is ready but no idea on that. Roll of the dice

  • BlueEdwards

    @dominicanpapi said...

    Kinda weird he lied/omitting he wasn’t vaxxed, but Green Bay should be thankful its midseason and not Super Bowl week.

    Edit: And I get content creation, but this is why its almost pointless to talk about the slate 6 days in advance when there’s so much going on during the week. Do we know if Adams is even playing?

    Yeah because being vaxxed clearly prevents one from getting and spreading covid.

  • dominicanpapi

    @BlueEdwards said...

    Yeah because being vaxxed clearly prevents one from getting and spreading covid.

    I never said otherwise?

    Edit: The issue I have isn’t that he’s unvaxxed, it’s that he lied, broke protocols just to put up with the ruse that he was vaccinated. It’s f’n weird if we’re being honest. Kirk Cousins and Cole Beasley have made their issues known about the jab, and that’s fine, it’s their opinion. This is just shitty and careless. There’s a difference.

  • squidkill

    Fellas, ma tested positive for COVID… She brought back another rando from bingo the other night.. He was in my kitchen the next morning making Mickey Mouse pancakes with just an apron on and no mask. I will be in the basement for at least 14 days… At least I can work on my cash game lineups.

  • BlitzburghBeatdown

    Better an apron and no mask than the opposite?

  • Logan7777

    @depalma13 said...

    Henry Ruggs career over.

    DUI manslaughter

    Accused of driving 156 mph, blood alcohol .161, and a loaded gun found in car. SMH.
    https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1455936573111947270?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

  • marker0357

    ewwwww

  • yisman

    @bigwillie20 said...

    Jordan Love only $4,400 on DK

    against the KC D? Yes, please.

  • squidkill

    @bigwillie20 said...

    Jordan Love only $4,400 on DK

    This is gonna be real tempting- Gonna have to reply on the beat writers on this… He really doesnt have to do much to justify the salary—- Although there is really no high end RB to pay for this week. I think the top is AK at $8200

  • lotusbomb

    @superjon said...

    All this talk about trouble in Cleveland with OBJ makes me either want to go all in or fade entirely.

    I’ll definitely have some game stacks.

    burrow chase/higgins/uzomah obj/chubb all deserve consideration

    obviously they can’t seem to get obj involved within the flow of the offense so maybe he gets more scripted plays as the no. 1 option?

    Im sure people will be on the bengals offense, not so sure about the browns though

  • emelim03

    Lineups are gonna start 1 of 3 ways it seems this week.

    1) All the Love chalk.
    2) All the Aaron Jones chalk.
    3) All the Chiefs Defense (chalk?)

    What a nice get right spot for Kansas City now. If GB wins this one, LaFleur deserves COY.

  • squidkill

    @lotusbomb said...

    I’ll definitely have some game stacks.

    burrow chase/higgins/uzomah obj/chubb all deserve consideration

    obviously they can’t seem to get obj involved within the flow of the offense so maybe he gets more scripted plays as the no. 1 option?

    Im sure people will be on the bengals offense, not so sure about the browns though

    He’s not even gonna play another snap with Cleveland

  • emelim03

    No OBJ? DPJ is just $4.4K…

  • lotusbomb

    @squidkill said...

    He’s not even gonna play another snap with Cleveland

    they would have traded him for peanuts if the locker room was that sour. I don’t even want to roster him in most stacks of that game, but he’s still their best receiving option and just like the steelers needing a win last week to still have hope for the season the browns need this win in Cincinnati.

    it might not translate to production (lol) but I’m willing to bet he sees at least 7-8 targets

    EDIT: just saw he was excused from practice. idk guess we’ll see. if he plays I’ll have some if he doesn’t I’m not as in love with the browns passing attack…

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