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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    7:08 PM :  Vegas ( -156 ) at  Buffalo ( 140 ) —- T: 6o-10
    7:08 PM :  Minnesota ( 155 ) at  Pittsburgh ( -186 ) —- T: 6½u-25
    7:08 PM :  Los Angeles ( 240 ) at  Tampa Bay ( -290 ) —- T: 6o-20
    7:08 PM :  New Jersey ( 215 ) at  Toronto ( -260 ) —- T: 6½o-35
    7:08 PM :  Boston ( -145 ) at  Columbus ( 125 ) —- T: 5½u-35
    7:08 PM :  Detroit ( 225 ) at  N.Y. Islanders ( -275 ) —- T: 5½u-14
    7:38 PM :  Chicago ( 100 ) at  Ottawa ( -120 ) —- T: 6½o-15
    8:08 PM :  Vancouver ( 110 ) at  Winnipeg ( -130 ) —- T: 6½o-15
    9:08 PM :  Nashville ( -123 ) at  Edmonton ( 103 ) —- T: 6½u-20
    9:08 PM :  San Jose ( 123 ) at  Arizona ( -143 ) —- T: 5½u-32
    9:08 PM :  Arizona ( 125 ) at  Colorado ( -145 ) —- T: 5½u-20

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NHL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s NHL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • PocketsSloppy

    DK $1 – 25 Player – Top 5 Results

    hautalak – 138
    CheetosAddict – 126.4
    gravity44 – 108
    krausehouse93– 106.6
    TeamNinjaBoot – 103.6

  • PocketsSloppy

    DK $1 – 25 Player – Top 5 (1/14 – 7:00 PM)

    Filled

  • PhoFever

    Houston Texans night for me last night – up huge to begin, then trampled in an onslaught thereafter; not having the Samsonov and Price shutouts just crushed my NYR lineups.

    My first questions of the day:

    1) Will the good TOR or the bad TOR show up tonight?

    2) Will TB remember how to score?

    3) Who is going to take Kassian’s place on L1 with McJesus? And can we please get a GIF of him punching Tkachuk over and over again? That….was….awesome.

  • maibockaddict

    How is it that unstructured random lineups seem to win GPPs almost every night?

  • ifthethunder

    @PocketsSloppy said...

    DK $1 – 25 Player – Top 5 Results

    hautalak – 138
    CheetosAddict – 126.4
    gravity44 – 108
    krausehouse93– 106.6
    TeamNinjaBoot – 103.6

    Congrats, hautalak!
    ~

    https://twitter.com/CarlKresky/status/1216893171701075968

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @ifthethunder said...

    Congrats, hautalak!
    ~

    https://twitter.com/CarlKresky/status/1216893171701075968

    Thank you! The main line ran hot last night.

    Nice work on the Swedish King find! Andersen is used to that though lol

    As for today I think I’m hammering the Isles!!! Mix in some Hawks and B’s and call it a day? Nah I got time for more lineups today!

  • stellagirl

    At an early glance, teams with a good/great matchup on paper:

    NSH
    NYI
    PIT
    WPG

    Teams with high Vegas expectations but in more difficult matchups:

    BOS
    COL
    TBL

    I’ll add some more commentary after a while.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @maibockaddict said...

    How is it that unstructured random lineups seem to win GPPs almost every night?

    The lineup that won the large $15 GPP was kind of structured. The guy had a piece of every home team:

    Couturier-Voracek-Sanheim
    Backstrom-Ovechkin
    Panarin-DeAngelo
    Dunn
    Price

    2nd and 3rd place were very random, but then 4th and 5th were regular. You have to be different a little to win those.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    stellagirl, no Toronto?

  • maibockaddict

    @Felixxberg said...

    The lineup that won the large $15 GPP was kind of structured. The guy had a piece of every home team:

    Couturier-Voracek-Sanheim
    Backstrom-Ovechkin
    Panarin-DeAngelo
    Dunn
    Price

    2nd and 3rd place were very random, but then 4th and 5th were regular. You have to be different a little to win those.

    In the daily dollar,

    Krejci-Bergeron
    Ovechkin-Panarin-Sprong
    Fox-Skjei
    Sampsonov
    Orlov

    172 points for first

  • stellagirl

    @Felixxberg said...

    stellagirl, no Toronto?

    TOR has a good matchup on paper, but not nearly as lop-sided as the teams I listed above.

    I may land on some leafs, but it wont be a priority. Side note: TOR has given up 20 goals over their last 5 games, so looking to the NJD side ofnthe game could be in play…

  • ifthethunder

    My Auston Matthews rule: Is he playing today? If yes, then he’s in my lineup.
    ~

  • stellagirl

    I am tempering my expectations for COL tonight and will likely mostly 100% fade them. Gotta draw a line in the sand somewhere. But it isnt for the faint of heart: tonight COL is rocking a slate high Corsi-for/GP, shots for/GP, and a 4.00 GF/GP at home.

    Conversely, DAL has allowed the fewest goals against of any road team this season:

    BOS: 117 GA
    NYI: 116 GA
    DAL: 105 GA

    ….and they have only allowed 6 total goals in their last 5 games overall, and have a slate best 2.47 GA/GP on the road. Vegas has both teams under 3 implied goals, with a 5.5 o/u.

    Basically, I am betting that I wont win or lose the slate on this matchup, so more or less crossing it off my list.

  • PhoFever

    @stellagirl said...

    TOR has a good matchup on paper, but not nearly as lop-sided as the teams I listed above.

    I may land on some leafs, but it wont be a priority. Side note: TOR has given up 20 goals over their last 5 games, so looking to the NJD side ofnthe game could be in play…

    Tonight is a good night to roll TOR in GPP, in my humble opinion. A lot of people playing the “recency” narrative are going to avoid them and assume that NJ will score another 5-6 goals and blow them away. I don’t know what the history is for teams who just gave up 8 goals, but I’d bet that they are pretty pissed off and don’t want another embarrassment on home ice.

    Rasmus Sandin PP2 at min. price, sign me up!

  • stellagirl

    As one could guess simply by the fact that they’re facing DET, NYI is in a good spot tonight.

    DET is dead last in the NHL in scoring (99 goals on the season, the only team left with under 100 goals scored, and it’s not even close).

    DET has the worst road corsi-for, worst shots for, and the worst high/med danger chances for of any road team tonight. They have a slate low 1.87 GF/GP and a brutal 9.2% PP in the road with an equally bad 70% PK. Oh yea, they give up nearly 4 goals per game on the road, as well.

    While NYI is no offensive juggernaut, a 3-1 or 4-1 win seems possible, and I will be looking here for some low price pieces for sure.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @maibockaddict said...

    In the daily dollar,

    Krejci-Bergeron
    Ovechkin-Panarin-Sprong
    Fox-Skjei
    Sampsonov
    Orlov

    172 points for first

    That’s a travesty of a lineup indeed! The $15 winner had 189.90.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @stellagirl said...

    TOR has a good matchup on paper, but not nearly as lop-sided as the teams I listed above.

    I may land on some leafs, but it wont be a priority. Side note: TOR has given up 20 goals over their last 5 games, so looking to the NJD side ofnthe game could be in play…

    After a 8-4 loss, I expect them to bounce back, but maybe they’ll play more defensively. That said, Reilly is out. It’s a plus for all other Toronto Ds but could hurt their defense in general.

  • ifthethunder

    As for Boston, they lost in OT yesterday. So it’s a tough B2B for them in Columbus versus a team that has been playing good D lately.
    ~

  • mr_papageorgio

    @stellagirl said...

    As one could guess simply by the fact that they’re facing DET, NYI is in a good spot tonight.

    DET is dead last in the NHL in scoring (99 goals on the season, the only team left with under 100 goals scored, and it’s not even close).

    DET has the worst road corsi-for, worst shots for, and the worst high/med danger chances for of any road team tonight. They have a slate low 1.87 GF/GP and a brutal 9.2% PP in the road with an equally bad 70% PK. Oh yea, they give up nearly 4 goals per game on the road, as well.

    While NYI is no offensive juggernaut, a 3-1 or 4-1 win seems possible, and I will be looking here for some low price pieces for sure.

    Dobson played 20 minutes last night and got PP time. Pretty good for $2800 on DK.

  • bdvratoric

    @stellagirl said...

    As one could guess simply by the fact that they’re facing DET, NYI is in a good spot tonight.

    DET is dead last in the NHL in scoring (99 goals on the season, the only team left with under 100 goals scored, and it’s not even close).

    DET has the worst road corsi-for, worst shots for, and the worst high/med danger chances for of any road team tonight. They have a slate low 1.87 GF/GP and a brutal 9.2% PP in the road with an equally bad 70% PK. Oh yea, they give up nearly 4 goals per game on the road, as well.

    While NYI is no offensive juggernaut, a 3-1 or 4-1 win seems possible, and I will be looking here for some low price pieces for sure.

    Anders Lee benefits the most from DET’s atrocious PK. In cash he’s the best play from the isles, i think if you’re doing GPP’s tonight you need some variations of their top PP

  • yisman

    Sidney Crosby WILL play tonight.

  • stellagirl

    @ifthethunder said...

    As for Boston, they lost in OT yesterday. So it’s a tough B2B for them in Columbus versus a team that has been playing good D lately.
    ~

    Agreed! BOS is off my list as well. CBJ is rocking a 2.07 GA/GP at home, have the best shot suppression of any home team tonight, and have a solid PK. It’s another “I dont think I will win or lose the slate on this game” spot for me.

    Speaking of which, SJS @ ARI is another no go for me.

    So fading SJS/ARI, along with DAL/COL, that means NSH will be one of my late night hammers!

    EDM has not been good at home, allowing 3.80 goals per game, and if Mike Smith starts, (.874/3.66) give me some NSH, who have a slate best 3.60 goals for on the road. They also have an above average PP, whole EDM’s 74% PK doesnt exactly inspire confidence.

    And, NSH is (mostly) cheap, to boot!

  • stellagirl

    What to do with TBL tonight.

    TBL comes into this game with a slate best 4.00 GF/GP at home and a 36.6% PP (!!!). They take a slate high 35 shots per game, and have the most high/med danger chances for of any home team.

    LAK are a surprisingly decent defensive road team though. They give up the fewest shots (28 per game), have the best corsi-against of any road team, and give up the least amount of high/med danger chances.

    (15 game home/road splits)
    LAK: 2.33 GF / 2.80 GA
    TBL: 4.00 GF / 2.80 GA

    Vegas line: TBL: -280/3.84 implied total.

    What say ye?

  • PhoFever

    @stellagirl said...

    What to do with TBL tonight.

    TBL comes into this game with a slate best 4.00 GF/GP at home and a 36.6% PP (!!!). They take a slate high 35 shots per game, and have the most high/med danger chances for of any home team.

    LAK are a surprisingly decent defensive road team though. They give up the fewest shots (28 per game), have the best corsi-against of any road team, and give up the least amount of high/med danger chances.

    (15 game home/road splits)
    LAK: 2.33 GF / 2.80 GA
    TBL: 4.00 GF / 2.80 GA

    Vegas line: TBL: -280/3.84 implied total.

    What say ye?

    I came to the conclusion with TB that Thou Must Stack…I’m running 3 lines tonight and one of them is a full TB. You forgot one key stat, LAK’s 75% PK, 5th worst in league. Their road PK% is only marginally better at 76%.

    Speaking of bad PK%, if you are going to point out EDM’s poor marks in that category, shouldn’t you also mention Nashville’s ungodly 69% road PK? Worse than DET!

    Let that sink in folks, Nashville has a 69% PK on the road. You almost never see PK% in the sixties.*

  • stellagirl

    @PhoFever said...

    Speaking of bad PK%, if you are going to point out EDM’s poor marks in that category, shouldn’t you also mention Nashville’s ungodly 69% road PK? Worse than DET!

    Let that sink in folks, Nashville has a 69% PK on the road. You almost never see PK% in the sixties.*

    Yep, some bad PK on tonight’s slate. WPG is even worse than DET and NSH, coming in at 67.3% at home. Brutal.

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