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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    10:08 PM :  Ottawa ( 130 ) at  Vancouver ( -150 ) —- T: 6o-25

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NHL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s NHL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • panters

    I saw that the Dad line moved up on LWL.

  • yisman

    @Southie777 said...

    I don’t envy schedule-makers trying to schedule a hockey season during a pandemic, but what the hell? One game tonight and 14 tomorrow? Makes zero sense.

    last year was like this too

    lots of 1-3 game slates because the schedule makers suck

    I remember posting about it.

    See here for example: https://rotogrinders.com/threads/nhl-11-22-3208127?page=1#reply-3208683

  • Zieg30

    • 2018 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    @Felixxberg said...

    My basic strategy for SD is: goalie – full line – correlated D – opposing one-off. For the opposing one-off, I just take the best available player, but I look for floor instead of ceiling. I’ll normally take a D, but some forwards are good enough to justify taking them.

    For example, tonight, I have a lot of Dadonov one-offs on one side and a lot of Benn one-offs on the other side. That’s just where I end up with salary when I build my lineups. Chabot-Zaitsev correlate well with OTT1, and Hughes-Benn with VAN1. Since it’s near impossible to have Holtby – full VAN1 – Hughes, I’ll do Holtby – full VAN1 – Benn, or I’ll do Holtby – VAN1 duo – Hughes-Benn. Same thing applies with Zaitsev and Chabot.

    For the captain spot, goalie is the safest, but everyone knows that. Going with a forward or a D is better if you want to have a shot at winning and not just cashing. I just make a lineup and duplicate it to have everyone captain (except the opposing one-off, and sometimes except the punt D if I have to play one). I’ll only play the punt D captain if he’s a good D with upside, like Schultz yesterday. Benn isn’t Schultz. No need to put him captain. I have nothing against trying it though.

    A very important part of SD is to look for last minute tweaks. If OTT or VAN has new lines tonight and we don’t know it before warmups, it’s an absolute gold mine and you have to take advantage of that. If, somehow, a guy like Virtanen plays on L1, you have to plug him in. If they recall someone from the taxi squad, it’s even better. If they tweak D pairs, just remember that Chabot goes with OTT1 and Hughes with VAN1. I doubt that changes even if they both lost many games already. Other D pairs aren’t much correlated with a line, so you could look for PP correlation.

    Having a goalie is almost always optimal, but you have to make non goalie lineups too (if mass entering) just in case. That said, I feel like not enough people play goalies, and playing one in every lineup is an advantage. Also, you almost never need to be perfect. You just need to be better than the others. It’s not like NFL with 100K+ entrants.

    Of course it’s not a guaranteed formula, and SD has the most variance of all, so don’t be surprised if a very strange lineup wins tonight, especially with so many entrants.

    You should charge for this advice!

  • TheShaman43

    @Felixxberg said...

    My basic strategy for SD is: goalie – full line – correlated D – opposing one-off. For the opposing one-off, I just take the best available player, but I look for floor instead of ceiling. I’ll normally take a D, but some forwards are good enough to justify taking them.

    For example, tonight, I have a lot of Dadonov one-offs on one side and a lot of Benn one-offs on the other side. That’s just where I end up with salary when I build my lineups. Chabot-Zaitsev correlate well with OTT1, and Hughes-Benn with VAN1. Since it’s near impossible to have Holtby – full VAN1 – Hughes, I’ll do Holtby – full VAN1 – Benn, or I’ll do Holtby – VAN1 duo – Hughes-Benn. Same thing applies with Zaitsev and Chabot.

    For the captain spot, goalie is the safest, but everyone knows that. Going with a forward or a D is better if you want to have a shot at winning and not just cashing. I just make a lineup and duplicate it to have everyone captain (except the opposing one-off, and sometimes except the punt D if I have to play one). I’ll only play the punt D captain if he’s a good D with upside, like Schultz yesterday. Benn isn’t Schultz. No need to put him captain. I have nothing against trying it though.

    A very important part of SD is to look for last minute tweaks. If OTT or VAN has new lines tonight and we don’t know it before warmups, it’s an absolute gold mine and you have to take advantage of that. If, somehow, a guy like Virtanen plays on L1, you have to plug him in. If they recall someone from the taxi squad, it’s even better. If they tweak D pairs, just remember that Chabot goes with OTT1 and Hughes with VAN1. I doubt that changes even if they both lost many games already. Other D pairs aren’t much correlated with a line, so you could look for PP correlation.

    Having a goalie is almost always optimal, but you have to make non goalie lineups too (if mass entering) just in case. That said, I feel like not enough people play goalies, and playing one in every lineup is an advantage. Also, you almost never need to be perfect. You just need to be better than the others. It’s not like NFL with 100K+ entrants.

    Of course it’s not a guaranteed formula, and SD has the most variance of all, so don’t be surprised if a very strange lineup wins tonight, especially with so many entrants.

    This is the content that keeps lurkers like me coming back every day :)

    Seriously, know that these sorts of posts are greatly appreciated by readers here.

    I don’t play a lot of SD in hockey, but one thing that seems to be a constant plague to me when I do are salary issues. I’m so conditioned not to leave too much on the table but with hockey I always feel like there’s too much leftover.

    Tonight I’ve got a tentative lineup that I like… with $2600 left on the table. I’m going to stare at that extra cash all evening and then right before puck drop I’m afraid that I’ll tinker myself right out of a nice correlation just for the sake of spending.

    I assume from reading your post above that you’re very comfortable with leaving cash on the table?

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @Zieg30 said...

    You should charge for this advice!

    I’m secretly hoping people don’t follow my advice since it’s free, because I have been crushing SD lately!

    I must admit I got blanked once though (14 x $10), but that was when DET had weird new lines and they ultimately only scored on the PP and in OT, giving them broken goals with the former DET1 that most people had.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @TheShaman43 said...

    This is the content that keeps lurkers like me coming back every day :)

    Seriously, know that these sorts of posts are greatly appreciated by readers here.

    I don’t play a lot of SD in hockey, but one thing that seems to be a constant plague to me when I do are salary issues. I’m so conditioned not to leave too much on the table but with hockey I always feel like there’s too much leftover.

    Tonight I’ve got a tentative lineup that I like… with $2600 left on the table. I’m going to stare at that extra cash all evening and then right before puck drop I’m afraid that I’ll tinker myself right out of a nice correlation just for the sake of spending.

    I assume from reading your post above that you’re very comfortable with leaving cash on the table?

    Thanks! I like collective success and I like to share my ideas. It doesn’t mean they’re the best, but I have been doing well in SD. Maybe it’s just a fluke, but it’s a long one!

    I didn’t mention salary, but I honestly give little to no attention to them (in SD only, because I think they’re important in main slates) except when there’s a misprice. When it comes to my one-off, I just pick the player I prefer. I’m very comfortable leaving a lot (up to $10K) on the table when I want to keep correlation. I almost won the other day with an ANH4 stack. Sure, swapping out any of Deslauriers-Grant-Rowney for an expensive player 1 for 1 might work 95% of the time, but the one time one of these guys scores, it’s likely his linemates will get points too, which is what happened on that night when they collectively got 5 points.

    Tonight’s contest is larger than every NHL SD I have played this season by far. We might see some weird things at the top. Leaving salary on the table is definitely a good idea.

  • keithj31216

    @Zieg30 said...

    My basic strategy for SD is: goalie – full line – correlated D – opposing one-off. For the opposing one-off, I just take the best available player, but I look for floor instead of ceiling. I’ll normally take a D, but some forwards are good enough to justify taking them.

    For example, tonight, I have a lot of Dadonov one-offs on one side and a lot of Benn one-offs on the other side. That’s just where I end up with salary when I build my lineups. Chabot-Zaitsev correlate well with OTT1, and Hughes-Benn with VAN1. Since it’s near impossible to have Holtby – full VAN1 – Hughes, I’ll do Holtby – full VAN1 – Benn, or I’ll do Holtby – VAN1 duo – Hughes-Benn. Same thing applies with Zaitsev and Chabot.

    For the captain spot, goalie is the safest, but everyone knows that. Going with a forward or a D is better if you want to have a shot at winning and not just cashing. I just make a lineup and duplicate it to have everyone captain (except the opposing one-off, and sometimes except the punt D if I have to play one). I’ll only play the punt D captain if he’s a good D with upside, like Schultz yesterday. Benn isn’t Schultz. No need to put him captain. I have nothing against trying it though.

    A very important part of SD is to look for last minute tweaks. If OTT or VAN has new lines tonight and we don’t know it before warmups, it’s an absolute gold mine and you have to take advantage of that. If, somehow, a guy like Virtanen plays on L1, you have to plug him in. If they recall someone from the taxi squad, it’s even better. If they tweak D pairs, just remember that Chabot goes with OTT1 and Hughes with VAN1. I doubt that changes even if they both lost many games already. Other D pairs aren’t much correlated with a line, so you could look for PP correlation.

    Having a goalie is almost always optimal, but you have to make non goalie lineups too (if mass entering) just in case. That said, I feel like not enough people play goalies, and playing one in every lineup is an advantage. Also, you almost never need to be perfect. You just need to be better than the others. It’s not like NFL with 100K+ entrants.

    Of course it’s not a guaranteed formula, and SD has the most variance of all, so don’t be surprised if a very strange lineup wins tonight, especially with so many entrants.

    IF I could remember to make sure the goalie i pick is actually playing, I would do so much better :(.

    I know it doesn’t mean much, but thanks for sharing! It helps immensely when trying to figure out why people picked certain lineups.

    Thank you!

  • Stangs13

    Salary is interesting tonight because ott1 and van1 are very attainable yet make you fill out your whole salary or close to it. Van2 leaves you with a high priced one off. All the rest of the lines leave a considerable amount on the table if you want to stay correlated. I’m curious about ownership. All I said above leads me to think there will be a lot of ott1, van1, or not correlated lineups. Seems like a night that it either makes sense to be either really heavy on one of those lines, or try to hit on the other lines at way lower ownership. Last thought is could we see a lineup with the PP1 outlier in horvat or dadonov with one line mate 2 pp line mates the correlated goalie and a one off be the winning lineup.

  • Southie777

    @yisman said...

    last year was like this too

    lots of 1-3 game slates because the schedule makers suck

    I remember posting about it.

    See here for example: https://rotogrinders.com/threads/nhl-11-22-3208127?page=1#reply-3208683

    Yeah, NBA and NHL definitely alternate days of the week, in terms of scheduling most games and having lighter nights. NBA is big on M/W/F, light on Tu/Th. NHL, the opposite, with heavy nights on Tu/Th and lighter slates on M/W/F. (Weekends seem to be more every-league-for-itself.) But 11/1/13/2/14/1 is egregious. I feel like most years, Tu/Th are often 8-10 games, while, M/W/F are more in the 3-5 range. Much more reasonable. Looking ahead to the next few weeks, it looks like it balances out more, so that’s good. Just a shitty week for this week.

    Yes, Felix, great advice, much-appreciated! I wasn’t going to play at all, as I’ve really grown to like NFL Showdowns the last few years, but have just never been able to get into NHL Showdowns. But I decided to do the $2/3-entry-max on FD and throw a few $1 Hip Check entries on DK, just to give it a whirl. Good luck, everyone!

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @keithj31216: No problem. You always have to verify during warmups! Goalies from a same team are normally the same price in SD, so that makes it easier as you just have to swap 1 for 1 without changing anything else. There’s no global swap option though.

    @Stangs13: OTT1 and VAN1 and variations of them will be the most popular builds for sure. They’re both fully PP correlated. Plugging in Horvat and/or Dadonov is definitely in play. Playing other lines gives you instant leverage. It’s only one game after all! Anything can happen! If I played 141 lineups (maximum), I’d probably have 50%+ OTT1 and VAN1 variations. I’d get funky for the remaining 50%.

    @Southie77: No problem! I’m not good at all at NFL SD, but prices are so nice that I have chased them a lot anyway.

  • the_shashi

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @Volkster6 said...

    I might have to swim with Felix and the other sharks tonight

    Says the great white shark lolllllll

    i’m gonna stay in the shallow pool and watch the carnage. I’ll donate 30$ to the lucky winner tonight.

    Boys, Felix gave you some GREAT advice. He is an SD GOAT.

    I will add the following: most casual players will not max, but maxing + optimizer is the EV+ move in the long run. To circumvent this, use your hockey acumen (gut) and play a thesis with your limited entries… for example, I’m playing an Ottawa win (like 3-1, 2-1, or even 2-0). Vancouver win means I get blanked but that’s fine. SD is a gamble w/o maxing so just pick your scenarios. GL

  • qatman

    I dislike showdown because you typically do have to play goalies. I’m taking a shot tonight with no goalies but PP correlation instead – figure that is a decent way to increase dispersion. Although I am single entry so different scenario – I’m very willing to lose most nights with super contrarian lineups with the expectation of hitting big once in a while.

  • BazookaDad

    I made a lineup on DK without any goalies but if Canucks top guys go off I win all the money.

  • PhoFever

    Felixx and a lot of the forum members here are all about the “give”. Constantly impressed by their generosity and patience giving advice over and over.

    The two words that no one tonight on here has bothered to say in tandem “FanDuel Showdown,” lol. I guess everyone but me hates it. But I’ll be playing’ they sucked me in with the “Streak” b.s. No goalies to worry about there, but you’ll never win a contest outright lmao. Better fit for a simpler guy like me.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @the_shashi: Thanks man! You did crush SD last playoffs too!

    @PhoFever: I like the game a lot, and I miss playing! Apart from work, I have a lot of time since there’s an 8pm curfew here, so I like discussing DFS ideas! I just never really digged FD.

    @others: I put my money where my mouth is. 141 lineups. Never played that many in SD before. Built them all by hand on my phone. I have at least one goalie in all 141. I’m advising everyone playing a small number of lineups to not play a goalie, because I have pretty much every combo that includes one!

  • rgreuli

    My gut feeling keeps telling me that Stuetzle is going off tonight.

  • qatman

    @rgreuli said...

    My gut feeling keeps telling me that Stuetzle is going off tonight.

    Go with your gut. If you don’t, you’ll always regret it.

  • fluffynuggets

    Forum contest for tomorrow is $5 entry, not $1. Mistake?

  • Nucks916

    Nucks lines:
    Miller Pettersson Boeser
    Pearson Horvat Hoglander
    MacEwan Sutter Virtanen
    Roussel Beagle Motte

    Hughes Benn
    Edler Schmidt
    Juolevi Myers

    Demko

  • BazookaDad

    Anybody else play full Canucks PP1 on DK + random Sens?

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    Holtby 8% in the main contest. I love SD.

  • Boooooourns

    • 2016 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    Surprised at Murray CPT percentage. Seems low.

  • cplatt87

    Went with Petterson captain and no goalies in my single bullet assuming that would be contraian enough to have upside. GL everyone.

  • Boooooourns

    • 2016 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    Wow, goalies are low owned. Here comes a high scoring shootout!

  • Mccurds13

    Thanks a ton for the SD advice Felix. Tried to largely put it in to use. Noticed yesterday in the one I was in for Edmonton Winnipeg that even in a close game a 5-1 build finished first, yet is something I’d largely only stumble upon in what I’d assume is a blowout.

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