NHL FORUM

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    11/13/2015 19:05 :  Calgary ( 0 ) at  Washington ( 0 ) —- T: 0
    11/13/2015 19:05 :  Columbus ( 160 ) at  Pittsburgh ( -180 ) —- T: 5½u-35
    11/13/2015 19:35 :  San Jose ( 110 ) at  Detroit ( -130 ) —- T: 5o-15
    11/13/2015 22:05 :  N.Y. Islanders ( 120 ) at  Anaheim ( -140 ) —- T: 5½u-30

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NHL strategy talk for today’s games. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. Please make it a point to say if you’re talking about Cash or GPP options

  • chrisp200

    On paper this Calgary/Washington is so lopsided.

    The Columbus/Pittsburgh game is very deceiving esp if the Penguins have their backup in net. The Blue Jackets are coming off recent wins against the Sharks and the Kings. I think this line is so skewed because of the poor start they had. The Blue Jackets GA60 is the second highest in the league, but Pittsburgh GF60 is 25th in the league. One of the biggest problems the Jackets have had early on if their PK at 75%, but the Penguins PP has looked awful and is only clicking at 14%.

  • umwoz

    @chrisp200 said...

    The Columbus/Pittsburgh game is very deceiving

    shhh…..

  • lastairbender

  • aselman

    Shhh….pp corsi looks nice also:

    http://war-on-ice.com/teamtable.html?mansit=4&scoresit=2&homeawaysit=1&tablegroup=1&playoffs=All&xaxis=5&yaxis=10&saxis=48&caxis=7&start0=20152016&end0=20152016&start1=2014-10-01&end1=2015-11-13&splitseasons=1&usedaterange=0&tablegroup=1

  • drewbee30

    I’ve decided to stay away from the slates that are 5 games or less. Just seems likes a losing proposition going up against the guys that run 500 lineups. Sure I could make a better lineup, but I think I’ll stick to the larger slates from here on out. Good luck guys

  • mberkowi

    • 2018 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @aselman said...

    Shhh….pp corsi looks nice also:

    http://war-on-ice.com/teamtable.html?mansit=4&scoresit=2&homeawaysit=1&tablegroup=1&playoffs=All&xaxis=5&yaxis=10&saxis=48&caxis=7&start0=20152016&end0=20152016&start1=2014-10-01&end1=2015-11-13&splitseasons=1&usedaterange=0&tablegroup=1

    What do we think we’re learning from PP Corsi? Keep up the CBJ touting boys. I love it.

  • chrisp200

    @mberkowi said...

    What do we think we’re learning from PP Corsi? Keep up the CBJ touting boys. I love it.

    It’s not CBJ touting as much as it is pointing out that the Penguins aren’t playing like the high powered offense Penguins as we are used to seeing.

    CBJ with the 2nd worst PDO as well.

    Brandon Sadd playing against the team he grew up watching (which he has rarely done because he’s been out West).
    Dubinsky will be on Crosby all night like always and making him take stupid penalties.
    Hartnell is a Penguin killer

    Not saying we should go all in on Columbus, but if Zatkof starts in net, it would be foolish not to have some Jackets in GPP’s

  • chrisp200

    @mberkowi said...

    What do we think we’re learning from PP Corsi? Keep up the CBJ touting boys. I love it.

    But what do I know, you are the pro, so people should probably listen to you.

  • drewbee30

    The bjs numbers are extremely skewed from their miserable start. The Penguins seem to be playing a defense first game. If I were playing tonight id prob stay away from the game.

  • Heterodox

    @drewbee30 said...

    Just seems likes a losing proposition going up against the guys that run 500 lineups.

    Just play the smaller contests. Though I generally share your frustration, there aren’t enough smaller options, but that is the case on large slates as well. I prefer a 4 game slate to a 2 game.

  • Heterodox

    @chrisp200 said...

    It’s not CBJ touting as much as it is pointing out that the Penguins aren’t playing like the high powered offense Penguins as we are used to seeing.

    CBJ with the 2nd worst PDO as well.

    Two contradictory thoughts here. 1) Penguins aren’t playing up to expectation, so we should go against them. 2) CBJ aren’t playing up to expectation, so we should go WITH them.

    Not being snide. I’m having this problem. CBJ, FLA, and PHI have been FUCKING KILLING ME. My inclination is to focus on true talent level, expect regression, etc…

  • Manute10

    Fleury is confirmed to play on left wing lock

  • chrisp200

    @Heterodox said...

    Two contradictory thoughts here. 1) Penguins aren’t playing up to expectation, so we should go against them. 2) CBJ aren’t playing up to expectation, so we should go WITH them.

    Not being snide. I’m having this problem. CBJ, FLA, and PHI have been FUCKING KILLING ME. My inclination is to focus on true talent level, expect regression, etc…

    That’s fair to look at it that way. But, in DFS, and in GPP’s specifically the CBJ will be far less owned than the Penguins which makes them a better option on a 4 game slate.

    It seems that this is the “new style penguins”. They are not a puck possession team anymore, they are a chip and chase team. They don’t have the Dmen who can move the puck up affectively anymore so they aren’t getting great scoring chances from the rush either.

  • drewbee30

    @Heterodox said...

    Just play the smaller contests. Though I generally share your frustration, there aren’t enough smaller options, but that is the case on large slates as well. I prefer a 4 game slate to a 2 game.

    Rather just keep the extra $$‘s for the larger slates. Just feel my odds are better.

  • Olhausen

    @drewbee30 said...

    Rather just keep the extra $$‘s for the larger slates. Just feel my odds are better.

    With baseball I didn’t like playing unless I had at least 5 games to work with. With hockey I’m good with at least 3 so 4 is definitely ok with me. With all the different line options I don’t feel it’s as bad as MLB when you have only 4 games.

  • mberkowi

    • 2018 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    I would expect cash game ownership tonight to be pretty diverse for a 4 game slate. GPP, I see your point, you’re not going to get Nash’s line at 2% like last night, but there are ways to differentiate yourself.

    You can even argue bigger slates favor the mass entries more. Most people who played Nash’s line last night were the heavy multi entry guys. Which means they won all the money.

  • drewbee30

    @mberkowi said...

    I would expect cash game ownership tonight to be pretty diverse for a 4 game slate. GPP, I see your point, you’re not going to get Nash’s line at 2% like last night, but there are ways to differentiate yourself.

    You can even argue bigger slates favor the mass entries more. Most people who played Nash’s line last night were the heavy multi entry guys. Which means they won all the money.

    Yea. As a smaller entry guy, there was no way I was touching that NY STL game. When I see a full stack of the Rangers winning a small tournie I just shake my head. Oh well, I’ll keep plugging along.

  • njo1987

    Goalies tonight? Khudobin?

    and I’m only taking a very small piece from the PIT/CBJ game. Can see that game being low scoring for some reason. Dubinsky always does a good job on Crosby.

  • umwoz

    Fleury’s stats are trending back towards the norm, he had 3 straight games with a goal or less allowed, since then he gave up 4 to Calgary and 2 on 20 shots against Vancouver. He’s a good goaltender, but he’s averaged around .916 – .918 for much of his career(excluding his first couple years), this .931 stuff is not his norm.

    Not to say that Columbus is going to put up 5, but this game looks like an over to me. I’m not going to spend my entire lineup on this game, but there’s absolutely some value. I expect majority of money to be on Pitt tonight, I’ll take some exposure but the value isn’t all the way there.

    Khudobin in for Anaheim…. scary play as he screams inconsistency, but with how he performed against SJ I find it hard not to be tempted.

  • colinwdrew

    • 2020 DraftKings FHWC Champion

    • 2018 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    CBJ allowing 33 DK FPPG under Torts vs. 45 before Torts. However they also allow a LOT more points on the road than at home. Like 30 percent more. That is either a fluke, or they don’t have deep enough personnel when they can’t get the match-ups the want. Pitt? 5th toughest defensive matchup.

    I would bet the under if you can get 5.5. Big fat fade of that game for me except maybe some Boone Jenner (I can’t quit you).

  • umwoz

    @colinwdrew said...

    5th toughest defensive matchup.

    Just out of curiosity, by what metric is that? I was never under the impression that CBJ would stop a lot of shots, just that they wouldn’t have a big problem getting their own.

  • colinwdrew

    • 2020 DraftKings FHWC Champion

    • 2018 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @umwoz said...

    Just out of curiosity, by what metric is that? I was never under the impression that CBJ would stop a lot of shots, just that they wouldn’t have a big problem getting their own.

    Good question I should have clarified. This is specifically DraftKings fantasy points allowed per game, so it encompasses shots, goals, etc. I believe PIT is an even tougher matchup on Fanduel due to plus/minus implications.

  • njo1987

    Bennett or donskoi as a punt?

  • Miness

    Bennett

  • huskerfan50

    Anyone giving Datsyuk a spin?

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