NHL FORUM

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    12:00 PM :  Dallas ( 0 ) at  Edmonton ( 0 ) —- T: 0
    4:05 PM :  Vegas ( 0 ) at  Los Angeles ( 0 ) —- T: 0
    4:05 PM :  Calgary ( -110 ) at  Arizona ( -110 ) —- T: 5½u-20
    4:05 PM :  Winnipeg ( 192 ) at  Tampa Bay ( -230 ) —- T: 6½u-15
    7:05 PM :  N.Y. Rangers ( 180 ) at  Florida ( -215 ) —- T: 6½o-30
    7:05 PM :  Ottawa ( 165 ) at  Buffalo ( -185 ) —- T: 6½u-15
    7:05 PM :  New Jersey ( 0 ) at  Montreal ( 0 ) —- T: 0
    7:05 PM :  Washington ( 115 ) at  Boston ( -135 ) —- T: 6½u-15
    7:05 PM :  N.Y. Islanders ( -110 ) at  Philadelphia ( -110 ) —- T: 6u-15
    7:05 PM :  Toronto ( 0 ) at  Pittsburgh ( 0 ) —- T: 0
    8:00 PM :  Carolina ( 0 ) at  Minnesota ( 0 ) —- T: 0
    8:05 PM :  Chicago ( 175 ) at  Nashville ( -200 ) —- T: 6½u-15
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    10:05 PM :  Colorado ( 0 ) at  Vancouver ( 0 ) —- T: 0
    10:35 PM :  Detroit ( 180 ) at  San Jose ( -210 ) —- T: 6½u-20

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NHL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s NHL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • PocketsSloppy

    DK $1 – 30 Player – Top 5 Results

    jstunna34 – 103.9
    akdarstudios – 100.9
    baahstonbotfly – 99.4
    nucks916 – 98.4
    Booooooums – 98

  • PocketsSloppy

    DK $1 – 30 Player – Top 5 (11/16 – 7:00 PM)

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  • nosideFX

    @PocketsSloppy said...

    DK $1 – 30 Player – Top 5 (11/16 – 7:00 PM)

    https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/80923817

    I hope you don’t mind if I post a 50/50 since I’m a cash only player. Don’t want to step on any toes.

  • PocketsSloppy

    @nosideFX said...

    I hope you don’t mind if I post a 50/50 since I’m a cash only player. Don’t want to step on any toes.

    Feel free to do so, no problem. I just post the RG forum contest daily in hopes that it will fill. We only missed filling one contest on a Sunday 2 game slate this year. That is quite impressive and it is a credit to all the members here at the RG forum for making it happen. Thanks for asking and best of luck too all!

    Stay Thirsty My Friends!!!

  • nosideFX

    DK $3 resizable 20 man 50-50

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  • stellagirl

    Well yesterday was fun. I was lucky to break even, despite the debacle that will forever be known as the Lemay Nostradamus game! My data work did uncover one oddity, and I posited that I felt Vegas had the line on the PHI/OTT game backwards. Shot volume and peripherals lead me to be 100% Nillson, and if it weren’t for FOUR posts by 2 of my OTT players it would have been a GREAT night. On to tonight.

    Interesting quirk in tonight’s main slate schedule. 9 out of the 10 teams that played last night, are on a B2B tonight, and ALL of them traveled! I am not sure I have ever seen that before?

    Here is my morning first glance for anyone interested:

    OTT/BUF (OTT on B2B):
    I think the Vegas implied totals on this game look about right (OTT 2.50 +165 / BUF 3.50 -195). Yesterday I suggested that OTT is actually a decent home team (winning record, decent peripherals) but they are an equally bad road team (2-6-1). The biggest number that jumps out here are OTT road goals against, 3rd worse on the slate (3.89/GP), and the metrics show they are defensively abysmal on the road. They also generate less than 30 shots per game on the road and BUF has reasonable shot suppression, so keep that in mind if looking at Hutton on DK?

    NYR/FLA:
    Vegas likes FLA a lot in this game, and with NYR road 3.83GA/GP I can see why. They also generate the second lowest shots of any road team tonight (just 26 per game), and appear to really struggle to put pucks on net from medium and high scoring areas. That said, for FLA defense is optional and they are letting plenty of pucks in as well, but scoring themselves at a good clip, 3.71GF/GP at home. SO…. NYR like to allow goals, FLA likes scoring them. FLA likes to allow goals……but NYR aren’t the best at that on the road. What to do here? I know for one, I will not be playing The BoB, with scoring and low shots….

    NYI/PHI (PHI B2B)
    The Islanders are 4-1 on the road, but I am here to tell you it is 100% because of goaltending and defense. They have a slate-low road Corsi, the lowest combined Med/Hi scoring chances per game, and the lowest shots per game (just 24 per game). It’s a miracle they actually manage 2.60 road goals per game, the offensive numbers are THAT bad – but they only allow 2.00 goals per road game – defense and goaltending. Conversely, PHI is a really good home team (6-1-2) with good defensive peripherals of their own, plus generating a slate-high home shots per game (38), and scoring plenty (3.67G/GP). Vegas has this game as a “push” at 2.75 goals each. I guess the takeaway here is that NYI are REALLY good defensively on the road, and PHI is on of the better home offenses tonight. Do with that what you will.

    TOR/PIT (Both B2B)
    Nothing is really jumping out at me here. Vegas thinks this will be a fairly even matchup with goal totals in the low 3’s for both teams, and the data suggests that as well. But would you be surprised to learn that PIT is allowing just 2.20 G/GP at home? Only BOS is better at 2.00 tonight. Their defensive peripherals suggest that capable defense is being played, but nothing that is really mind-blowing. Chalk it up to good goaltending? I need to dig deeper here.

    WSH/BOS (Both B2B)
    Caps are a 9-1-1 road team, in large part because they simply outscore the other teams (damn near 4 goals to 3 on average). But the data reality is, on the road they are solidly out-Corsi’d, out shot, and out chanced. Truth! BOS is 2nd best tonight in GF/GP (3.90) and BEST on the slate in GA/GP (an even 2.00). As mentioned last night, Halak is in the net, who has apparently owned the Caps. With the last change at home, I tend to agree with Vegas that BOS holds a slight edge here.

    NJD/MON (both B2B)
    NJD are a brutal road team, one of the worst on the slate, and it’s really not close. In fact, I am amazed at their 3-5-0 record when you consider their road splits: 1.50 GF/GP compared to 3.50 GA/GP. Lack of shots…. lack of chances….. Just BAD. Habs are a good home team, but who do you take? Last night (like most nights) my MON exposure was Weber, just because you know the puck will flow there eventually. I might go back to that tonight.

    ANA/STL (STL B2B)
    It’s a NO for me on the Ducks, with their crappy 26 shots per game and barely 2 goals per, with low chances to boot. Almost as uninspiring as the Devils. The Blues home numbers are decent, if not a bit uninspiring themselves. Everything here is just middling. And as a Sharks fan, I hate both of these teams. I’d consider Binnington on FD, but not DK with the low Ducks shot volume. I think I just threw up in my mouth a little. I will not be watching this game, either.

    CHI/NSH
    NSH: 4.00 goals per game at home, plenty of shots, above average offensive numbers all around. CHI: giving up a slate high 40 (!!!) shots per game, and allowing way too many chances and goals (3.25 GA/GP). This game is a mismatch, and I might be 100% Forsberg on DK.

    COL/VAN
    VAN, along with the Preds, score exactly 4.00 goals per game at home, and their defensive numbers are a tick better than the Avs. The Avs are about middle of the pack everywhere I look at the numbers. Other than the Canuks home scoring prowess, nothing really jumps out here, but it feels like Vegas has the line right? (COL 3.06 +115) / VAN 3.44 -135). With the last change and ability to match up against the MacKinnon line, I side with VAN.

    BRING ON THE LATE NIGHT HAMMER!!!

    DET/SJS
    The Redwings are getting outscored on the road by a 2-1 margin, giving up a slate-high 4.00 goals per, on the road and only averaging 2.18 for. The Sharks have a winning record at home but honestly, I was surprised this matchup doesn’t look more lopsided on paper. The Sharks are just a respectable home team with decent peripherals. It’s just that the Wings are giving up more high/medium scoring chances and goals than any other road team on the slate. I will be doing my best to have Forsberg and Kane in every lineup I have.

    Overall, the biggest things that jumped out to me are:

    1) Major mismatch in the NYR/FLA game
    2) DET and NJD are crap on the road, both getting outscored almost 2-1, but amazingly have combined for 6 wins
    3) Lots of teams in good spots: Sharks, Preds, Panthers, BOS. Need to figure out what to do with BUF, VAN, PHI, Leafs/Pens , Caps
    4) Fade: ANH, STL, CHI, NJD, DET, OTT, COL

    Thanks for sharing my morning coffee with me,

  • OttawaCityMadman

    7100 left for a one off. Josi or Burns. They both are running Hot atm.

  • keephustlincuz

    @stellagirl said...

    1) Major mismatch in the NYR/FLA game

    Nice write up. I appreciate your effort.

    This is my favorite game stack of the night. Glad to see your analysis supports this.

  • nosideFX

    @OttawaCityMadman said...

    7100 left for a one off. Josi or Burns. They both are running Hot atm.

    Burns

  • stellagirl

    I just built a FLA3/Bergeron/Forsberg/”(player-popup #evander-kane)E. Kane”:/players/evander-kane-17320 lineup that I am really fond of.

  • stellagirl

    Fyi: VAN lines shuffled again. Jt Miller back up top, leivo to 4th line.

  • Nucks916

    To be expected – in the 3rd last game Miller was starting to play with them again.

  • klubba575

    Interested to see if Tatar ends up back on the top MON line Drouin went on IR today. If so, I’ll definitely have some of that line!

  • lemay88

    Stellagirl, thanks for the write up of your thoughts. You actually made me look in a different direction for a few games, much appreciated.

    Where is the easiest place to find the projected goals that you refer to?

  • stellagirl

    @klubba575 said...

    Interested to see if Tatar ends up back on the top MON line Drouin went on IR today. If so, I’ll definitely have some of that line!

    He is…. and so, I am in board with a little MTL1. That is a good looking line. Thanks for the heads up, I didnt know Drouin was hurt.

  • stellagirl

    @lemay88 said...

    Stellagirl, thanks for the write up of your thoughts. You actually made me look in a different direction for a few games, much appreciated.

    Where is the easiest place to find the projected goals that you refer to?

    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/ is the source data.

    Another forum member brought it to our attention a few days ago.

    I have some specifics things I like to look at, so I built an excel macro that chops up and formats the .csv downloaded data and does some “per game” averaging of certain stats. It’s been a good exersize. Plenty of room for improvement, and as some have mentioned, also useful to back away from the numbers for a different perspective, too.

    But for example, for some reason I had it in my head that PIT was very attackable at home. But at 2.20 GA/GP……..maybe not so much?

    I/we also need to be careful about assuming past performance is an indicator of future success. Using this process last year, how long would I have missed out on the Blues resurgence because I was so myopically focused in stats from when they were much worse?

  • yisman

    line rushes in warmups:
    Pacioretty-Karlsson-Smith
    Marchessault-Eakin-Stone
    Tuch-Stastny-Glass
    Carrier-Nosek-Reaves

    McNabb-Schmidt
    Merrill-Holden
    Hague-Theodore

    Subban in net.

  • lemay88

    I never do this but one of my two lineups tonight is all top line guys who play top power play. No correlation at all, all one offs. Feels like a donation. I see 2 point upside on every single guy though.

    Is it possible to win a large field GPP with a lineup full of one offs?

  • nosideFX

    If you’re interested in a $3 50/50 on DK

    https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/80943854

  • Cal_Naughton_Jr

    @OttawaCityMadman said...

    7100 left for a one off. Josi or Burns. They both are running Hot atm.

    Josi

    Josi running a 17.74 ICF/60 highest in the NHL for D against a Chicago team that gives up a ton of HDCA

  • PocketsSloppy

    DK $1 – 30 Player – Top 5 (11/16 – 7:00 PM)

    https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/80923817

    2 entries remain – 28/30

  • stellagirl

    Has anyone seem any lines for the predators for today?

  • Sully556

    Murphy is a good punt D tonight. $2500 top pairing with Keith. I’d imagine he will get peppered with blocked shots, as the hawks were outshot 51-20 by the Preds a few weeks ago…

  • tristanwolf

    Bergeron is Out!

  • Southie777

    No Bergeron.

    Marchy/Krejci/Pasta
    Bjork/Coyle/Heinen

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