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  • dyavid

    @StPaulMick said...

    Thanks for the tip on Morrow. What’s up with Mete? They burned his first year by keeping him up for 10+ games and now they have him on the third pairing?

    On the other side, how about Ekholm as a pivot of off Subban or Josi?

    I think any of those NSH D are solid plays,that team uses their point quite a bit in the offensive zone. Personally, I’ll be very heavy on Subban. He’s the only d on PP1, wayyyy underpriced at 5k which is a 1.1k discount from Josi and of course the MTL revenge narrative.

    Who knows with Mete, never seemed to do much from a DFS perspective even with prime minutes. The sites haven’t updated it yet but looks like he lost his PP time to Morrow last night based on the game log.

  • sizzlebeans

    Some h/a PP/PK splits to consider tonight…
    NSH is 40.5% at home vs MTL who are 72.7 on the PK away from home.
    COL 30.3% vs DAL 75.7%

    On the harder side of it…
    DAL has a road PP% of 32.3 vs a stingy COL PK of 92%
    TBL at 30% facing a 90.2% CHI PK

    And then we have SJS at 9.1% vs ARI’s 71.4% PK…if it weren’t the Sharks, you might think regression to the mean could be in play here. The only team on the slate worse on the PP than the Sharks are the Dogs at 6.9%, but they are facing a 91.7% SJ PK. This is probably where the regression comes.

  • dyavid

    @sizzlebeans said...

    And then we have SJS at 9.1% vs ARI’s 71.4% PK…if it weren’t the Sharks, you might think regression to the mean could be in play here. The only team on the slate worse on the PP than the Sharks are the Dogs at 6.9%, but they are facing a 91.7% SJ PK. This is probably where the regression comes.

    DFO has Burns on PP2 right now…? I doubt that will stick the whole game but it is interesting.

  • tristanwolf

    on vacation in Tampa, gonna go to the game here vs my Blackhawks tonight. will probably stack it up for fun and hope for 6-5 shootout. maybe a couple other lu’s, working on golf and nfl too. great week for dfs!

  • sizzlebeans

    @dyavid said...

    DFO has Burns on PP2 right now…? I doubt that will stick the whole game but it is interesting.

    SJ used what was normally their PP2 unit on the ice first last game, so that is accurate. Never trust any lines you see for the Sharks though. The only thing guaranteed is the defensive pairings, the Joes will always skate together, and Couture and Hertl are not likely to get broken up. The rest of the game will be uncorrelated when you try to use one of their lines.

  • bstreich9

    Only thing getting me off my homerism bias of stacking the Wild in many ways tonight is that Buffalo plays somewhat slow

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @StPaulMick said...

    On the other side, how about Ekholm as a pivot of off Subban or Josi?

    The thing I don’t like about Ekholm is that he scored a goal in each of his last 4 games. He has 5 goals in 20 games this season and his career best is 8 goals in 82 games, so I don’t see him continuing on that pace.

    Also, his price on DK is significantly up since the last few games (he went from $3.3K 8 days ago to $4.4K now). He could still hit value with SOG and BS, but so far this season he has 1.6 SOG/game and 1.5 BS/game, which means 1.55 DK point/game. The only way I see him hit value is with assist(s).

    At the exact same price, I prefer Boychuk (2.8 SOG/game, 2.5 BS/game, so 2.65 DK points/game if he has no real point) and in the 4K-4.3K range, I prefer Ekblad (2.5 SOG/game, 1.6 BS/game, 2.05 DK points/game if he has no real point), Phaneuf (1.8 SOG/game, 2.3 BS/game, 2.05 DK points/game if he has no real point), E. Johnson (2.9 SOG/game, 1.9 BS/game, 2.4 DK points/game if he has no real point), Slavin (2.2 SOG/game, 2.5 BS/game, 2.35 DK points/game if he has no real point). I also believe that Fowler will get back on track. He has never been that cheap ($4.1K) on DK.

  • Blahaaron

    @Felixxberg said...

    The thing I don’t like about Ekholm is that he scored a goal in each of his last 4 games. He has 5 goals in 20 games this season and his career best is 8 goals in 82 games, so I don’t see him continuing on that pace.

    Also, his price on DK is significantly up since the last few games (he went from $3.3K 8 days ago to $4.4K now). He could still hit value with SOG and BS, but so far this season he has 1.6 SOG/game and 1.5 BS/game, which means 1.55 DK point/game. The only way I see him hit value is with assist(s).

    At the exact same price, I prefer Boychuk (2.8 SOG/game, 2.5 BS/game, so 2.65 DK points/game if he has no real point) and in the 4K-4.3K range, I prefer Ekblad (2.5 SOG/game, 1.6 BS/game, 2.05 DK points/game if he has no real point), Phaneuf (1.8 SOG/game, 2.3 BS/game, 2.05 DK points/game if he has no real point), E. Johnson (2.9 SOG/game, 1.9 BS/game, 2.4 DK points/game if he has no real point), Slavin (2.2 SOG/game, 2.5 BS/game, 2.35 DK points/game if he has no real point). I also believe that Fowler will get back on track. He has never been that cheap ($4.1K) on DK.

    Ekholm is one of the hottest dmen right now and draft kings is about the present, not about the whole season like a hockey pool. I will ride him until he burns out.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @Blahaaron said...

    until he burns out

    At that moment, I hope Burns burns in!

  • StPaulMick

    @Felixxberg said...

    Also, his price on DK is significantly up since the last few games (he went from $3.3K 8 days ago to $4.4K now). He could still hit value with SOG and BS, but so far this season he has 1.6 SOG/game and 1.5 BS/game, which means 1.55 DK point/game. The only way I see him hit value is with assist(s).

    At the exact same price, I prefer Boychuk (2.8 SOG/game, 2.5 BS/game, so 2.65 DK points/game if he has no real point) and in the 4K-4.3K range, I prefer Ekblad (2.5 SOG/game, 1.6 BS/game, 2.05 DK points/game if he has no real point), Phaneuf (1.8 SOG/game, 2.3 BS/game, 2.05 DK points/game if he has no real point), E. Johnson (2.9 SOG/game, 1.9 BS/game, 2.4 DK points/game if he has no real point), Slavin (2.2 SOG/game, 2.5 BS/game, 2.35 DK points/game if he has no real point). I also believe that Fowler will get back on track. He has never been that cheap ($4.1K) on DK.

    Great analysis here. Thanks, Felix. My two cents are that Ekblad career numbers have been in a consistent decline since his rookie season. Not a freefall, but consistently down. And I am taking that with a grain of salt since these numbers are not always relevant in daily fantasy due to streaking, match-ups and TOI.

    Ekblad points ’14-‘15: 39; ’15-‘16: 36; ’16-‘17: 21; and 8 points thus far this season.

    The second thing is personal bias in that I effing hate the bruiser Dion Phaneuf, who plays in the mold of Dale Hunter
    . I could go into it, but nobody cares.

  • hsfgsteele

    Well could have won a few hundred (small stakes player so would be great for me) last night had I entered my usually contests. 64.8 is a lofty peak for me to get back to. Heres to entering way more tonight and busting! I’ll be going back to the wishing well that is TB 1. Like Nashville and NJ tonight as well.

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @StPaulMick said...

    The second thing is personal bias in that I effing hate the bruiser Dion Phaneuf

    Does anybody like him though? And that includes his teammates lol Pretty sure I heard Iginla fought him or something back in the CGY days. I’m with you in never rostering him but have fallen into the trap a few times for whatever reason. Maybe when Karlsson was out.

  • sizzlebeans

    DET putting Athanasiou on the center of the 4th line?

    https://twitter.com/AnsarKhanMLive/status/933357686556676097

  • StPaulMick

    @hautalak said...

    I’m with you in never rostering him but have fallen into the trap a few times for whatever reason

    I’m sure I’ve plugged him into a lineup here and there, too. Thanks for the blog post yesterday. Much appreciated.

  • hsfgsteele

    @hautalak said...

    Does anybody like him though? And that includes his teammates lol Pretty sure I heard Iginla fought him or something back in the CGY days. I’m with you in never rostering him but have fallen into the trap a few times for whatever reason. Maybe when Karlsson was out.

    The story was that he slept with Conroy’s wife so Iggy and Regehr fought him in a hallway. Iggy went and demanded that Dion be traded or he was going to demand a trade.

  • Poochy16

    At first glance I’m going NSH1/COL1, but now I’m having second thoughts about TB1 – could see much lower ownership than they otherwise might

  • hsfgsteele

    @Poochy16 said...

    At first glance I’m going NSH1/COL1, but now I’m having second thoughts about TB1 – could see much lower ownership than they otherwise might

    I think there is still a perception of CHI being really good (which they might well be ) but for DFS purposes they are susceptible. NHL DFS for me at least is so hard that when you have a line that is as much of a sure thing as TB 1 is, price be damned you roll them and feel good that they will get put some pucks in the net.

  • Blahaaron

    Edler is becoming someone I am drafting a lot. What matters to me is the last 3 to 5 games. A lot of guys have inflated numbers from earlier in the season when they were hot and now they are not. And I am still puzzled why some of the draft experts keep writing about Simmonds. He hasn’t done much in the way of points all season. Is it a smart strategy to pick a cold player in hopes this is the game they become hot? Take Burns, that is A LOT of salary to spend on a person who’s been cold all season. You’re giving away pts when you pick him IMO.

  • Zieg30

    • 465

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #97

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    @Blahaaron said...

    Edler is becoming someone I am drafting a lot. What matters to me is the last 3 to 5 games. A lot of guys have inflated numbers from earlier in the season when they were hot and now they are not. And I am still puzzled why some of the draft experts keep writing about Simmonds. He hasn’t done much in the way of points all season. Is it a smart strategy to pick a cold player in hopes this is the game they become hot? Take Burns, that is A LOT of salary to spend on a person who’s been cold all season. You’re giving away pts when you pick him IMO.

    Edler is still very cheap given his TOI and recent-PP time. He’s a solid play tonight.

    I’m hugely spread out tonight, with 16-17 lines, each stacked 4 times, 2 each with a different line, and different goalies.

  • StPaulMick

    @Blahaaron said...

    Take Burns, that is A LOT of salary to spend on a person who’s been cold all season. You’re giving away pts when you pick him IMO.

    I think I’ll be waiting for Simmonds to get back to form before I roster him. Burns is a definite no for me until he produces. If you look at total shots attempted, Burns already has taken 188 this season! That’s exactly 100 more than P.K. Subban. I think other teams are approaching him differently. He shoots from everywhere. Opponents must be making some adjustments. When Paul Martin gets back, I guess this theory will be put to the test.

  • Quickparty

    Today, Friday, and Saturday might put me in an early grave. Too many damn games.

    I’ll assume NSH1/TB1 are the chalkiest tonight but what that means on a 15-gamer is…what, max 20%? Great night for low ownership elsewhere at least but woof Niemi starting.

  • Blahaaron

    On a night like tonight it is going to be really hard to cash unless you have over 50 points. We can expect a hundred or more goals.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @Quickparty said...

    Today, Friday, and Saturday might put me in an early grave. Too many damn games.

    I’ll assume NSH1/TB1 are the chalkiest tonight but what that means on a 15-gamer is…what, max 20%? Great night for low ownership elsewhere at least but woof Niemi starting.

    I don’t think any player can hit 20% when 30 teams are in play! Good luck with the article! I’ll be patiently waiting.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @Blahaaron said...

    On a night like tonight it is going to be really hard to cash unless you have over 50 points. We can expect a hundred or more goals.

    Curiously, the GPP winners could have less DK points than yesterday’s winners even if yesterday was a 3 game slate. With Schwartz – Schenn – Tarasenko being approx. 30% taken, the people who won GPPs yesterday had near perfect lineups. On a 15 game slate, I don’t think that’s possible, even with 150 lineups.

  • Ryanoss

    • 2015 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @Blahaaron said...

    On a night like tonight it is going to be really hard to cash unless you have over 50 points. We can expect a hundred or more goals.

    This is an interesting take. Do you have any evidence to show this?
    I guess put another way is there somewhere that shows cash line being higher on larger slates than on smaller slates?

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