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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

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    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NHL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NHL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Blahaaron said...

    5 game slate is big enough that 89 entries shouldn’t be the same.

    Normally I’d agree with this statement, but I found tonight’s player pool’s to be super constrictive. Like, once you took Pastrnak (lock) and another expensive winger you were basically locked into the same handful of players. There wasn’t a lot of salary scripting options to move around in for cash tonight.

    Who knows, it could have been sold. Just as likely.

  • blackburn72419

    @Blahaaron said...

    5 game slate is big enough that 89 entries shouldn’t be the same. Unless it was the same person spamming their lineup. How many different people had this same lineup? It it was many, it’s a bought lineup.

    it was single entry so every entry was a different person. I know lineup selling was a rather large issue a couple years ago when i played more heavily and it seems nothing has changed.

    @sirrobert6 it had ovi, no pastrnak and IMO some very questionable plays… im going to go ahead and say the chance that 80 people came up with the exact same card is close enough to 0 that we can safely assume theres something going on.

    kind of sad that theres already a total lack of action and players… and some decent percentage of them are buying lineups anyway…

  • Blahaaron

    @blackburn72419 said...

    it was single entry so every entry was a different person. I know lineup selling was a rather large issue a couple years ago when i played more heavily and it seems nothing has changed.

    @sirrobert6 it had ovi, no pastrnak and IMO some very questionable plays… im going to go ahead and say the chance that 80 people came up with the exact same card is close enough to 0 that we can safely assume theres something going on.

    kind of sad that theres already a total lack of action and players… and some decent percentage of them are buying lineups anyway…

    What was the lineup, if you don’t mind me asking.

  • Blahaaron

    maybe there was a cyber Monday sale or something from some of these services, probably nfl or nba dfsers. We don’t have enough NHL dfsers that would pay for any services.

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    @blackburn72419 said...

    @sirrobert6 it had ovi, no pastrnak and IMO some very questionable plays… im going to go ahead and say the chance that 80 people came up with the exact same card is close enough to 0 that we can safely assume theres something going on.

    I checked the contest.

    I’m going to go out on a limb that you are referencing the 41.9fpts card that finished all the spots between 51st and 128th.
    Here’s the card including ownerships which answer the question.

    C Aleksander Barkov 53.4% NJ 3 FLA 4 Final 1 G, 2 SOG, 1 A, 1 BS 6.5
    C Nazem Kadri 23.5% BOS 2 TOR 4 Final 4 SOG 2
    W Filip Chytil 50.8% OTT 2 NYR 4 Final 2 SOG, 1 A 3
    W Mike Hoffman 29.6% NJ 3 FLA 4 Final1 G, 7 SOG, 1 BS 7
    W Alex Ovechkin 50.8% WAS 4 NYI 1 Final 1 G, 3 SOG, 1 BS 5
    D Johnny Boychuk 24.4% WAS 4 NYI 1 Final 5 SOG, 3 BS 4
    D John Moore 24.4% BOS 2 TOR 4 Final 2 SOG, 8 BS 5
    G Sergei Bobrovsky 39.0% CLS 7 DET 5 Final 1 W, 27 SV, 5 GA 3.4
    UTIL Boone Jenner 20.3% CLS 7 DET 5 Final 1 G, 1 SOG, 1 A, 1 BS 6

    Barkov: great play, LN1/LN1 against a team that’s borderline a joke on the road and on a b2b.
    Kadri: suspicious, agreed.
    Chytil, Hoffman, Ovi: Three of the 5 lock cash wingers for tonight. Super obvious. Chytil should have been on every cash card, period, Ovi is Ovi (Iprefered Pastrnak, but took both on FD), and Hoffman, though not my prefered choice, was a massive social lock, everyone was talking about him and he was in a great spot/stacked perfectly with Barkov.
    Boychuk: Just as obvious to Chytil for me, they were the first two people I clicked on for cash tonight. Boychuck is obscenely cheap considering his role and style of play, it was almost too easy.
    moore: suspicious, agreed.
    Bobz: obviously best cash goalie of the night.
    Jenner: Another crazy obvious play to me. He (and quickly followed by Hayes) were my third and fourth clicks for cash. He’s been a boderline lock all season and tonight was obscenely the best C value play for cash, wasn’t even close.

    So, outside of Moore and Kadri everyone was an easy lock. When you fall on those two last spots maybe that’s just what optimized, I have no idea, but outside of those two there’s nothing suspicious or wrong with the card, in fact it’s near perfect.

    But, and this is a massive but, all this considered, 89 different people falling on Moore and Kadri in cash is beyond suspicious, and despite defending the card I think you’re probably right (outside of the bad plays, they were v. good ones).

    and for ref, mine was Hayes, Jenner, Ovi, Chytil, Pastrnak, Boychuk, Matheson, Bobz, and Jenner. You see, very similar cores, so I’m not surprised as a whole. I thought tonight’s cash options were super super constructive and only lead down a couple different roads.

  • Blahaaron

    Jenner, Boychuk weren’t obvious to me. Kadri and Moore, agree, weren’t obvious either. 🤷🏼‍♂️

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Blahaaron said...

    Jenner, Boychuk weren’t obvious to me.

    I can get why people would miss on Jenner, especially if you had any focus on the CBJ LN1.
    But Boychuk was one of the most obvious of the night, sorry, calling everyone on that who didn’t see it. Outside of cash? Absolutely not. But his role, style of play, and salary made it impossible to pass up as a viable cash option. Other than Ryan Murray (who I also took on another) there was nobody even remotely as viable under 4k. Considering I always look to punt on defense, especially in cash, it was a super obvious go to spot.

  • blackburn72419

    yes that is the card I was referring too

    my thoughts on the plays (not that it matters too much)
    Jenner: fine but nothing special at all, definitely suspicious
    Chytil: good but not a lock (why is he better than namestnikov who is cheaper)
    boychuk: sure a cheap punt with upside but not sure id consider a lock
    Kadri: obv suspicious
    moore: obv suspicious

    now lets get to the part where jenner, kadri, moore and boychuk were 20-25% owned… 20% in that contest was 92 entries, 25% was 114 entries…so outside of these almost 80 cards all four of those players were something like 2-8% owned…. yet something like 90-95% of all these player exposures came on identical cards… its EXTREMELY improbable. its just pretty clear that this was a purchased lineup, not sure from where but not sure there is any denying it.

    just have to go back to H2H only cash in NHL like I did a few years ago.

  • footballbutts

    The NBA thread is talking about a suspicious lineup train in the $5 double up too.

  • Blahaaron

    @footballbutts said...

    The NBA thread is talking about a suspicious lineup train in the $5 double up too.

    Question is, since this hit multiple sports, what will DK do about it? This puts into question the legitimacy of their product. If it keeps happening, it’ll kill their company.

  • Blahaaron

    Found the bastard

    https://twitter.com/locksdfs/status/1067256629018677251?s=21

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    @blackburn72419 said...

    my thoughts on the plays (not that it matters too much)
    Jenner: fine but nothing special at all, definitely suspicious
    Chytil: good but not a lock (why is he better than namestnikov who is cheaper)
    boychuk: sure a cheap punt with upside but not sure id consider a lock
    Kadri: obv suspicious
    moore: obv suspicious

    As always these decisions are slate dependent, but…

    Considering his consistent salary range from week to week Jenner absolutely smashes to downright obliterates everyone in his range. It’s literally not even a discussion. He’s got more than 90 combined shots and blocked shots this season, which is like what, basically 30+ fantasy points on DK without his .5pts/game avg? If there’s anyone else comparable, let alone from tonight, I’ll take it back. But needless to say as a floor play Jenner is one of the best in the league for his range. Not to mention he plays on the better of the two PP options were was up against one of the weaker PKs in the league, and his constant linemate Andserson is one of the hotter players in the league. So, Jenner ftw bigtime.

    Namestnikov has been in that role for a lot longer than Chytil and has done infinitely less with the role. Not only that, Chytil has scored more than 3fpts this month, let alone season, has Namez? I don’t think he has (talking out of my ass but pretty confident about that). On top of being better at DFS and real life than Namez, Chytil has a much larger floor than Namez who does more of his work from blocked shots. So, basically speaking, Chytil allows you a ceiling with the same floor, where Namez is just a floor, nothing more. Take the ceiling for the extra $200. What made him a lock tonight? Playing LN1/PP1 against a team near guaranteed to let in at least four and he cost less than 4k (sorry, he cost exactly 4k). Namez would have been lock status from that salary as well, but the fact is he isn’t as good and the salary difference wasn’t enough/Chytil wasn’t expensive enough to make it different.

    Boychuck was an insane massive lock for cash this slate. Maybe you are new to NHL, that’s totally fine, but very few ppl have the shot upside of Boychuk. Not only does he shoot it a lot, but he also shoots it well, so points upside is totally there when playing in a relevant slate; which this was. Everyone on here knows Holtby hasn’t been up to it this season, so there was a ceiling potential, obviously not good enough for GPP. But, when considering floor there was nobody even remotely close sub 4k in defenders with that kind of shot/blocked shot upside. Not to mention he’s skating on the top defensive pairings/PP2 for one of the leagues’ better even strength goal teams/better PP teams/opposition PK teams in the league. I don’t know how someone couldn’t consider him without downright missing him. I think a lot of that has to do with how ppl approach Ds. If you punt he was the obvious play, him and Murray were LIGHTYEARS away from every other sub 4k cash defensive options for tonight. Would Boychuk be a lock EVERY slate in the same light Jenner could be used? No, absolutely not, there’s been a ton of slates Boychuk was in this role, but like I said it’s very slate dependent and he lined up as the sole big name sub 4k this slate.

    But yeah, because of Moore/Kadri we can generally expect it was sold/came from the same site. We give skeletons out on ours, but there’s no way all our users would fall on Moore and Kadri, let alone any two players like that.

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Blahaaron said...

    Found the bastard

    https://twitter.com/locksdfs/status/1067256629018677251?s=21

    everyone should take some time to report this to DK/FD.

  • Blahaaron

    @sirrobert6 said...

    everyone should take some time to report this to DK/FD.

    I sent them a message on here.

    You can do it at DraftKings_CM

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Blahaaron said...

    I sent them a message on here.

    You can do it at DraftKings_CM

    yeah really good call.

    Everyone make sure not to comment or let on people are aware they did this. The moment they realized how screwed they are they will undoubtedly start deleting everything.

  • Blahaaron

    @sirrobert6 said...

    yeah really good call.

    Everyone make sure not to comment or let on people are aware they did this. The moment they realized how screwed they are they will undoubtedly start deleting everything.

    It’s pretty dumb to brag about it to begin with. You’re breaking the rules, and you’re gonna flaunt it? LOL

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    I never play cash but that sucks indeed. That said, if that train didn’t cash, it would have given you a very good edge!

    I had a much needed night. Finished at +$1,748! Managed to cash 11/21 lineups in the $33 (including 5 in the top 25) and 11/22 in the $8.

  • Blahaaron

    Congrats Felix, that’s a great night. Check the games you entered for that lineup. I found 5 entries in the micro booster with that same lineup we are talking about.I bet there was a lot in your games too.

    It was definitely high enough to cash.

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Blahaaron said...

    It’s pretty dumb to brag about it to begin with. You’re breaking the rules, and you’re gonna flaunt it? LOL

    honestly, if they are suggesting Kadri and Moore in cash, they probably don’t even know the basic rules as is LOLOL
    god knows what else they are suggesting/teaching.

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Felixxberg said...

    Finished at +$1,748!

    man, that’s so awesome, well done!

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    Thanks to both of you!

    2 people had the paid lineup in the $33 contest and I can’t see how many in the $8 because I’m on my cellphone, but it was enough to cash in both.

  • yisman

    I don’t even think Pastrnak and Ovechkin were locks. They worked out, but to me they weren’t must have today.

  • yisman

    @sirrobert6 said...

    small slate mixed with crazy condensed ownership. Like, everyone should have owned Pastrnak in cash, prob Ovi as well. Once you take those two salaries there’s only so many viable players left to choose from, especially when you consider the lack of numerous value cash options. On a massive slate, not as big of an issue, but a five gamer will make ownerships even crazier in cash.

    Pastrnak’s price came down to make him playable, but let’s look at this.

    Entering tonight, Pastrnak’s last five games:

    0 goals, 1 assist, 17 shots

    Also note that three of those five went to OT, giving him added opportunity to produce

    I view BOS1 differently when Bergeron is out.

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    @yisman said...

    I don’t even think Pastrnak and Ovechkin were locks. They worked out, but to me they weren’t must have today.

    Ovi was meh, he’s Ovi and there wasn’t a ton of other high end salary options on the wing, so it was a lock because of name and slate alone.

    But Pastrnak? Obscenely. He is literally the Leafs killer. He’s avg like 3pts a game career vs. them, (again, talking out of my ass) as a Leafs fan I don’t think Pasty has NEVER scored less than 1pt in a game vs the Leafs. People can say whatever they want about preference trends, but Adam McQuaid has scored a point in basically every game he’s played vs. the Habs (considering he’s hurt for 90% of the season this isn’t the biggest sample size ever, but…). These things are real. Every time you see Bruins playing the Leafs, if you take Pasty literally every chance, after a lifetime you’ll be so far ahead you’ll be banking your roll like house money on that decision forever.

  • yisman

    yes, if you went back in time and took Pastrnak every time in those games you’d be doing quite well, but the question is going forward, is it predictive?

    You cannot definitively say yes or no.

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