NHL FORUM

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    9:05 PM :  New Jersey ( 140 ) at  Edmonton ( -160 ) —- T: 140
    10:05 PM :  Nashville ( -110 ) at  Anaheim ( -110 ) —- T: -110

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NHL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NHL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • TimmerRC

    If NJ loses Johansson for this game I’d go heavy on EDM1 for sure but that’s an easy choice… the real question is do you take a lacklustre NSH squad or a beat up Anaheim one…

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    This is a night where there’s no point entering the main contest without entering at the very least 50 lineups!

  • dyavid

    i can understand why they had a bigger contest on halloween but not a clue why tongiht they’d have a 10k prize to first.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    I’m entering 120 lineups! Canuckage, let’s win that thing!

  • SteveM

    Does anybody understand the DK thought process here? Yesterday was arguably the most attractive day of the season with 12 games and several intriguing matchups and yet we were limited to 20 lineups and smaller prize pool in the big tournament. Today there are only 2 games in the NHL and DK decides to raise the prize pool and allow 150 lineups??? I feel like they are intentionally trying to remove the skill element and turn this into bingo. It is really any fun to try to guess which 3rd-4th line guy is going to have the puck bounce off his ass for his 2nd goal of the game to make him the guy you have to roster if you want a top-10 finish? I’m sitting this one out. Save your rake everyone. And if any DK reps visit here, I’m sure we’d all love to hear the logic behind these decisions. I understand you want to vary the games to keep the 20-max AND the 150-max entry fans happy (and there are good arguments for both sides IMO), but if you’re going to offer both types of tournaments why not allow more entries just one the days with more games??? What am I missing?

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @SteveM said...

    Does anybody understand the DK thought process here? Yesterday was arguably the most attractive day of the season with 12 games and several intriguing matchups and yet we were limited to 20 lineups and smaller prize pool in the big tournament. Today there are only 2 games in the NHL and DK decides to raise the prize pool and allow 150 lineups??? I feel like they are intentionally trying to remove the skill element and turn this into bingo. It is really any fun to try to guess which 3rd-4th line guy is going to have the puck bounce off his ass for his 2nd goal of the game to make him the guy you have to roster if you want a top-10 finish? I’m sitting this one out. Save your rake everyone. And if any DK reps visit here, I’m sure we’d all love to hear the logic behind these decisions. I understand you want to vary the games to keep the 20-max AND the 150-max entry fans happy (and there are good arguments for both sides IMO), but if you’re going to offer both types of tournaments why not allow more entries just one the days with more games??? What am I missing?

    I’m totally guessing here, but I would say it’s to please everyone and maybe to prevent cheating.

    On a 2 or 3 game slate, the advantage of entering 100 lineups or more against someone who enters only 20 or fewer is enormous. Everyone will enter because of the $10K top prize. For “sharks”, this is the perfect spot. Almost no risk, because with 100 lineups or more, you can basically cover everything, but big rewards at the top of the leaderboard. Therefore, “sharks” are happy that small slates offer big prizes.

    On other nights, the advantage is reduced because even with 150 lineups, it’s impossible to cover everything. More risk for the same reward. On those nights, DK prefers to please “casual players” by limiting the contests to 20 entries. Therefore, most of the time, “casual players” are happy.

    On a 2 or 3 game slate, if it’s limited to 20 lineups, it’s “easy” to find someone to enter more lineups with him/her and split afterwards, therefore having an advantage against everyone else. No one is going to do that when the cap is at 150 entries. There’s no point entering 300 lineups because you already cover everything with less than 150.

    Maybe I’m wrong, but that’s my explanation.

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @SteveM said...

    I feel like they are intentionally trying to remove the skill element and turn this into bingo.

    There have been some pretty curious things going on in this light (NFL & NBA too). I like short slates and all but that sucks. FWIW I’ll stick to pick em again for tonight I think. It narrows down who to pick from.

  • Blahaaron

    I thought about why they did this and on a monteary level it makes sense. There will be a lot of people making 150 lineups on a 2 game slate. On a bigger slate there would be less lineups made because there is way less of a chance at coming up with the right combination and thus fewer peope would enter a lineup 150 times. It’s all an illusion.

  • dyavid

    i won’t be donating my money to the sharks tonight as im not a max entry guy. I’ll throw in one dart based on how i think these games will go with some differentiation but i’ll save my money for tomorrow

  • SteveM

    @Felixxberg said...

    For “sharks”, this is the perfect spot. Almost no risk, because with 100 lineups or more, you can basically cover everything,

    But if everyone is “covering everything” how does anyone win then? The sharks can’t ALL win. It will still come down to having that 2nd D-man or whatever who isn’t deserving enough for anyone else to have taken him. Bingo. And I don’t think it’s right to characterize a luck-based contest with 16% rake as “almost no risk” unless of course you are from DK.

    Perhaps it is the illusion that you can “cover everything” that they are exploiting to encourage people to play more entries than they should (thereby generating more risk-free rake) on a small slate of games. I mean, no matter how few games there are in the NHL and no matter how many entries you are allowed, there’s still only one top prize. It could come down to whether a block or shot on goal got counted or not. Personally, I’d rather try to win the top prize on a day like yesterday (or tomorrow) where I won’t have to hit the perfect (AKA luckiest) lineup to do so.

  • Blahaaron

    Might play a dollar triple up. Depends how i feel later. Might just make a free game only.

  • pickles

    I think its more about generating a bigger interest in a small slate that doesnt start until much later then normal on a friday night. 10k first prize will get people throwing in entries for sure no matter what the slate is.

  • Benn91

    Hard to pick a goalie for tonight.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @SteveM said...

    But if everyone is “covering everything” how does anyone win then? The sharks can’t ALL win. It will still come down to having that 2nd D-man or whatever who isn’t deserving enough for anyone else to have taken him. Bingo. And I don’t think it’s right to characterize a luck-based contest with 16% rake as “almost no risk” unless of course you are from DK.

    Perhaps it is the illusion that you can “cover everything” that they are exploiting to encourage people to play more entries than they should (thereby generating more risk-free rake) on a small slate of games. I mean, no matter how few games there are in the NHL and no matter how many entries you are allowed, there’s still only one top prize. It could come down to whether a block or shot on goal got counted or not. Personally, I’d rather try to win the top prize on a day like yesterday (or tomorrow) where I won’t have to hit the perfect (AKA luckiest) lineup to do so.

    Normally, on a slate like tonight, you will see only one or two “non sharks” in the top 50. Some are going to lose, some are going to win, but obviously, DK is always the winner. That being said, the rake that DK collects depends on the number of entries and not on the number of entrants. For DK, if the contest size is the same, it makes no difference.

    Some “sharks” will play the same lineups but with different Ds. Some will play 4th liners, some won’t. Some will go with duos, some with trios. There’s a chance that the top prize splits but there’s a chance that it won’t.

    Tonight, there are 9,803 entrants and the top prize is $10,000. I’m entering 120 lineups, so I have 1.22% odds of winning it. The real odds are probably higher, because people who know nothing about NHL will probably enter because of that top prize (picking players who don’t play, players on different lines, 3-4 players against their goalie, etc.). Also, I probably have more chances of winning than 120 people who put a single entry, because these people will never mix 3rd liners together, for example. Since NHL has a lot of variance, 3rd liners owning the night could happen. I like those odds for the top prize, and the fact that 25% of people will be in the money (2,493 out of 9,803).

    I’m not complaining and I totally get your point, but I’m trying to explain why I think that the risks are reduced a lot compared to large slates.

  • Blahaaron

    They fined Hayes, Kilorn and Stammer all $5000 for having a water fight. Boo.

  • TimmerRC

    I changed my mind… instead of donating my $8 in a single bullet to people running 150 lineups, I’ll max enter the $3k Hip Check, which puts me on an even footing.

  • Canuckage

    I don’t get the logic of DK and FD when it comes to prize pool and game slates. I think it should be standard that Tuesday and Thursday should have “special” pools since it usually has the most game aside from Saturday. It is understandable that pools on Saturday are usually small because of NFL but sucks from a NHL fan perspective as it is usually the most exciting day of the week.

    @Felixxberg – I am probably take 1st place but you can have 2nd :)

  • TimmerRC

    I don’t often do 2 game slates, can I work an idea through and you guys tell me if this makes sense?

    I’m looking at these 4 teams, and there is clearly exactly ONE elite-level line, obviously EDM1. Other lines are good, or solid, but the McJesus line is the only one virtually guaranteed to perform together as an elite trio… but everyone knows that, right?

    So ownership will be insane on these guys, right? McDavid 90%? Draisaitl 85, Maroon 80? I’m guessing? But I don’t see any reason, even with me running a bundle of lineups, to avoid them. Sure, of course, they COULD somehow shit the bed tonight. But if they do, that’s 85% of the lineups who all have the same points from them, right? So the end result is that it comes down to pairing them ith the players who do go off… and the fact is, many of the non-EDM1 lineups will whiff on whichever big line is out there anyway… but if EDM1 has its typical big night and they have 18 points between them, and you DONT have EDM1, you are sunk, right?

    So… am I crazy for wanting to put EDM1 into every one of my lineups? I might drop Draisaitl or Maroon out of a couple, but really… would any of you fade McDavid? I’m talking about running 20 lineups here, by the way, not 150.

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @TimmerRC said...

    I don’t often do 2 game slates, can I work an idea through and you guys tell me if this makes sense?

    I’m looking at these 4 teams, and there is clearly exactly ONE elite-level line, obviously EDM1. Other lines are good, or solid, but the McJesus line is the only one virtually guaranteed to perform together as an elite trio… but everyone knows that, right?

    So ownership will be insane on these guys, right? McDavid 90%? Draisaitl 85, Maroon 80? I’m guessing? But I don’t see any reason, even with me running a bundle of lineups, to avoid them. Sure, of course, they COULD somehow shit the bed tonight. But if they do, that’s 85% of the lineups who all have the same points from them, right? So the end result is that it comes down to pairing them ith the players who do go off… and the fact is, many of the non-EDM1 lineups will whiff on whichever big line is out there anyway… but if EDM1 has its typical big night and they have 18 points between them, and you DONT have EDM1, you are sunk, right?

    So… am I crazy for wanting to put EDM1 into every one of my lineups? I might drop Draisaitl or Maroon out of a couple, but really… would any of you fade McDavid? I’m talking about running 20 lineups here, by the way, not 150.

    In “theory” this all makes sense but we know this is NHL we are talking about. Even with only 20 lineups you might want to “hedge” 2 or so without. I see them being closer to 60-70% so you can still be overweight leaving them off a few. McDavid might be a must though. Good luck tonight.

  • dyavid

    @TimmerRC said...

    McDavid 90%? Draisaitl 85, Maroon 80?

    I’ll be surprised if they are this highly owned but they for sure will be the highest owned trio. I’d guess somewhere around 60-70%.

    Edit: oh didnt see hautalak just said the same thing haha

  • sizzlebeans

    Game theory/leverage tonight is to play one LU and fade EDM1 and start Schneider. Then come back tomorrow when the slate doesn’t suck.

  • Canuckage

    Your logic makes sense.
    2 game slates are random as hell.
    Assuming everyone takes EDM L1 along with you, you better pair them up with the perfect line.
    If EDM L1 fails, you’ll probably cash 0 line ups

  • Canuckage

    Anyone have news on Marcus Johansson or Yamamoto?

  • sizzlebeans

    @Canuckage said...

    Anyone have news on Marcus Johansson or Yamamoto?

    Do not see Marcus Johansson (head?) for morning skate.

    https://twitter.com/AGrossRecord/status/926500893687562240

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @TimmerRC said...

    I don’t often do 2 game slates, can I work an idea through and you guys tell me if this makes sense?

    I’m looking at these 4 teams, and there is clearly exactly ONE elite-level line, obviously EDM1. Other lines are good, or solid, but the McJesus line is the only one virtually guaranteed to perform together as an elite trio… but everyone knows that, right?

    So ownership will be insane on these guys, right? McDavid 90%? Draisaitl 85, Maroon 80? I’m guessing? But I don’t see any reason, even with me running a bundle of lineups, to avoid them. Sure, of course, they COULD somehow shit the bed tonight. But if they do, that’s 85% of the lineups who all have the same points from them, right? So the end result is that it comes down to pairing them ith the players who do go off… and the fact is, many of the non-EDM1 lineups will whiff on whichever big line is out there anyway… but if EDM1 has its typical big night and they have 18 points between them, and you DONT have EDM1, you are sunk, right?

    So… am I crazy for wanting to put EDM1 into every one of my lineups? I might drop Draisaitl or Maroon out of a couple, but really… would any of you fade McDavid? I’m talking about running 20 lineups here, by the way, not 150.

    On any night, no matter how many lineups you do, you only need one good one to make it to the top. On Tuesday, my best lineup was in 256th but I had the same forwards and goalie as Canuckage/ivanage, who finished 3rd. $20 instead of $2,000.

    Of course, if you look at statistics for tonight’s slate, 80% of the time (random number, just guessing) you’ll need Edm1 to make money. Obviously, with 120 lineups, I’m not going to fade that line entirely. I don’t want to lose it all. That being said, I prefer aiming for that 20% of the time where Edm1 has a total of 0 to 9 DK points. It might not happen tonight, but if it does, I’ll be way above the field and I’ll make tons of money (with the other guys mass entering). If Edm1 runs good like it usually does, well I won’t lose everything but I’ll probably lose a lot since a lot of people will have better lineups than mine and I won’t be able to get to the top of the leaderboard, except if I’m super lucky and I have the good Ds, but even then, the prizes will be split up for sure.

    It depends on how you want to play. If you want to cash without necessarily making it to the top of the leaderboard, go with Edm1. 80% of the time you’ll make money. I prefer to take bigger risks and have a shot at that $10K top prize.

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