NHL FORUM

Comments

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    1:05 PM :  Winnipeg ( 105 ) at  N.Y. Islanders ( -125 ) —- T: 105
    1:05 PM :  Detroit ( 170 ) at  Boston ( -200 ) —- T: 170
    7:05 PM :  Chicago ( -115 ) at  New Jersey ( -105 ) —- T: -115
    7:05 PM :  Minnesota ( 0 ) at  Tampa Bay ( 0 ) —- T: 0
    7:05 PM :  Montreal ( 0 ) at  Edmonton ( 0 ) —- T: 0
    7:05 PM :  Ottawa ( 0 ) at  Florida ( 0 ) —- T: 0
    7:05 PM :  Buffalo ( 0 ) at  Carolina ( 0 ) —- T: 0
    7:05 PM :  Philadelphia ( 0 ) at  Columbus ( 0 ) —- T: 0
    7:05 PM :  Toronto ( 0 ) at  N.Y. Rangers ( 0 ) —- T: 0
    7:05 PM :  Anaheim ( 165 ) at  Pittsburgh ( -185 ) —- T: 165
    8:05 PM :  Washington ( 0 ) at  Vegas ( 0 ) —- T: 0
    8:05 PM :  Colorado ( 0 ) at  Arizona ( 0 ) —- T: 0
    8:05 PM :  Nashville ( 105 ) at  Dallas ( -125 ) —- T: 105
    10:05 PM :  St. Louis ( -150 ) at  Vancouver ( 130 ) —- T: -150
    10:05 PM :  Los Angeles ( 105 ) at  San Jose ( -125 ) —- T: 105

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NHL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NHL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @TnCowboy said...

    Want to thank you guys on here for your insight. Took down the $10K DK Sniper last night and had a 9th place finish a couple nights ago. Merry Xmas to all you guys!

    Congrats!

  • Blahaaron

    @TnCowboy said...

    Want to thank you guys on here for your insight. Took down the $10K DK Sniper last night and had a 9th place finish a couple nights ago. Merry Xmas to all you guys!

    Great job! Hope you win some more in the coming new year.

  • Blahaaron

    I don’t know if I’m gonna do the holiday skate. The pay structure seems like a trap.
    Or maybe I’m just jaded. But id rather even see Testosterown win it than a paid for line up like what happens some times. It just doesn’t seem right. But I could put one entry in anyway and hope I min cash.
    I’m having a hard time getting more than 45 pts lately. 50 pts used to come so easy.

  • JimmyTango

    @TnCowboy said...

    Want to thank you guys on here for your insight. Took down the $10K DK Sniper last night and had a 9th place finish a couple nights ago. Merry Xmas to all you guys!

    That’s awesome!

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @Blahaaron said...

    I don’t know if I’m gonna do the holiday skate. The pay structure seems like a trap.
    Or maybe I’m just jaded. But id rather even see Testosterown win it than a paid for line up like what happens some times. It just doesn’t seem right. But I could put one entry in anyway and hope I min cash.
    I’m having a hard time getting more than 45 pts lately. 50 pts used to come so easy.

    It is a trap indeed. That $10K is just too tempting! That would definitely be a nice add-on to my 2017 salary! If you enter a single bullet, you have to see it as a lottery ticket. It’s just $5 anyway, so why not! But be aware that you’re going against people entering 150, which is very different than against people entering 20.

  • Blahaaron

    @Felixxberg said...

    It is a trap indeed. That $10K is just too tempting! That would definitely be a nice add-on to my 2017 salary! If you enter a single bullet, you have to see it as a lottery ticket. It’s just $5 anyway, so why not! But be aware that you’re going against people entering 150, which is very different than against people entering 20.

    Indeed. And that’s how I view DK. As a lottery ticket but I have better odds at winning money this way since I am more in control. We are all capable of geting 50, 60, 70 pts. We’ve done it before. Just gotta strategize the right way to do this.
    Do we pick lines. Pick duos. Stack a game. Or pick randoms. I think the winner will be a random line up. I have a few days to think about it.

  • Zieg30

    • 525

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    @Felixxberg said...

    It is a trap indeed. That $10K is just too tempting! That would definitely be a nice add-on to my 2017 salary! If you enter a single bullet, you have to see it as a lottery ticket. It’s just $5 anyway, so why not! But be aware that you’re going against people entering 150, which is very different than against people entering 20.

    Let’s talk about how people mass-entering effects those entering fewer entries.

    I know that those entering 150 have a better chance of finishing first than I do. I also know that the very fact that a number of people are entering 150 means that (1) there will be many contrarian lineups entered (more second and third lines, etc.) that would otherwise not have been entered, and (2) there will generally be many different combinations that would otherwise not have been entered.

    But otherwise, how am I actually disadvantaged by entering 20 lineups versus someone else’s 150?

    I hate that our standard large NHL GPP is 150 entries rather than 20, but that’s because there will always be some mass-enterers filling the top of every single GPP, which is frustrating and saps my motivation to continue playing, but on a pure numbers basis, am I actually disadvantaged? Does a mass-enterer have a better chance of finishing with a profit than I do (excluding from this answer the fact that they’re likely better at this than I am by virtue of the fact that they mass enter and keep doing so)? Do those mass entries lower my chance of making a profit?

  • Blahaaron

    @Zieg30 said...

    Let’s talk about how people mass-entering effects those entering fewer entries.

    I know that those entering 150 have a better chance of finishing first than I do. I also know that the very fact that a number of people are entering 150 means that (1) there will be many contrarian lineups entered (more second and third lines, etc.) that would otherwise not have been entered, and (2) there will generally be many different combinations that would otherwise not have been entered.

    But otherwise, how am I actually disadvantaged by entering 20 lineups versus someone else’s 150?

    I hate that our standard large NHL GPP is 150 entries rather than 20, but that’s because there will always be some mass-enterers filling the top of every single GPP, which is frustrating and saps my motivation to continue playing, but on a pure numbers basis, am I actually disadvantaged? Does a mass-enterer have a better chance of finishing with a profit than I do (excluding from this answer the fact that they’re likely better at this than I am by virtue of the fact that they mass enter and keep doing so)? Do those mass entries lower my chance of making a profit?

    The mass enterers are more likelier to hit that 3rd or 4th line that goes off.

  • pickles

    @Zieg30 said...

    Let’s talk about how people mass-entering effects those entering fewer entries.

    I know that those entering 150 have a better chance of finishing first than I do. I also know that the very fact that a number of people are entering 150 means that (1) there will be many contrarian lineups entered (more second and third lines, etc.) that would otherwise not have been entered, and (2) there will generally be many different combinations that would otherwise not have been entered.

    But otherwise, how am I actually disadvantaged by entering 20 lineups versus someone else’s 150?

    I hate that our standard large NHL GPP is 150 entries rather than 20, but that’s because there will always be some mass-enterers filling the top of every single GPP, which is frustrating and saps my motivation to continue playing, but on a pure numbers basis, am I actually disadvantaged? Does a mass-enterer have a better chance of finishing with a profit than I do (excluding from this answer the fact that they’re likely better at this than I am by virtue of the fact that they mass enter and keep doing so)? Do those mass entries lower my chance of making a profit?

    There are alot of nights where the cash line and winning scores are very similar between the 20 max and 150 max entry gpp’s. I tracked this quite a bit on my own the last two years. I havent this year very much, but its easy to see for yourself now on this site with the ResultsDB.

    If you can afford the bigger gpp’s but arent because of the entry limits I think its a mistake. You are missing out on much greater upside.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    The thing with DK is that I think that you have to get to the very top (let’s say top 10) once in a while to be profitable long term. I had a hard time getting there last year when I maxed the $4 contest more often than not, but I won once ($3K) and had a couple of top 10s. The difference at the top is enormous, with thousands of dollars separating positions. It is probably possible to get there with 20 lineups a night, but it’s also a lot more possible to lose it all. On my worst nights, I ended at -$350, and it really didn’t happen often. On the other side, +$350 did happen often because I only needed 1 of my 150 lineups making the top 20 or so to get there. For wednesday, max entering is definitely not a good idea if I want to be safe, but the top prizes are super heavy and I only need 1 good lineup to make it. I’m going with simple maths. 150 is 7.5x more than 20. I also think I have more than 7.5x chances of having a better best lineup than someone entering 20, because that someone normally won’t take as many risks as me. Hockey is a somewhat unpredictable sport, so spreading a lot might be the best strategy to use to be profitable long term.

    On the last night before the break, we were only 7 people max entering the $8 contest (110 entries). That means that 7 people out of 1,407 (unique users) covered 21% of the field (!!). We had a total of 18 lineups in the top 50 (36%), so max enterers did have the advantage. We should check stats every night because I’m also curious about that.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    The night before, same % of the field taken by max enterers, 13 lineups in the top 50 (26%), so they still had the advantage.

    The night before, they had 33% of the field. 24 lineups in the top 50 (48%), so same thing again.

    The night before, 27% of the field. 10 lineups in the top 50 (20%), but there’s a guy who entered 120 lineups (maximum 132, so I didn’t count him) who had 9 lineups in the top 50.

    The night before, 21%. 21/50 (42%).

    I think it’s fair to say that there’s a considerable advantage for max enterers. That being said, like you said, people max entering also normally have good skills, since they have that bankroll. It could be a mix between the number of lineups and the skills.

  • Zieg30

    • 525

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    Those are very interesting numbers. Thanks for compiling them!

    The top 15-50 don’t really provide much return most nights, and that’s not what we’re aiming for, so the better question may be what would be the max enterer’s percentages of entries in the top 10, 15, or 20 (though I am not suggesting you go back and perform the same analysis with one of those parameters)!

    Regardless of these numbers, I’m still looking forward to Wednesday night’s DK GPP with my 15-20 entries and definitely still wish that DK regularly limited its primary NHL GPPs to 20-max!

    Merry Christmas everyone!

  • mathewsmarner

    got my sights set on the nsh stl game so far.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @Zieg30 said...

    Those are very interesting numbers. Thanks for compiling them!

    The top 15-50 don’t really provide much return most nights, and that’s not what we’re aiming for, so the better question may be what would be the max enterer’s percentages of entries in the top 10, 15, or 20 (though I am not suggesting you go back and perform the same analysis with one of those parameters)!

    Regardless of these numbers, I’m still looking forward to Wednesday night’s DK GPP with my 15-20 entries and definitely still wish that DK regularly limited its primary NHL GPPs to 20-max!

    Merry Christmas everyone!

    I realized the same once I had compiled the stats. Top 10 is what I should have compiled. I have the % already so it’s going to be quick to calculate the top 10 advantage.

    Dec. 23rd: 21% of the field by max enterers. 2/10 in the top 10 (20%). Almost even.
    Dec. 22nd: 21%. 1/10 (10%), but a guy who entered 105/132 lineups also has one there. Advantage to non max enterers but slightly.
    Dec. 21st: 33%. 8/10 (80%). 5 of these entries are from the same person though, but they are five different (and surprisingly not that similar) lineups. Advantage max enterers.
    Dec. 20th: 27%. 2/10 (20%), but the 120/132 guy has 2 lineups there. For that reason, I would say even.
    Dec. 19th: 21%. 7/10 (70%). Advantage max enterers.

    That means that surprisingly, the flatter the structure, the better it is for max enterers. Sometimes, their advantage is strong, but I would guess it’s when a very unusual line hits. So, don’t be shy and try to win those top prizes Wednesday!

    Merry Christmas!

  • Zieg30

    • 525

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    Thanks for providing the numbers!

    It’s refreshing to see that max-enterers don’t dominate the top-10 EVERY night (though it’s a small sample size)! My guess is that the max enterers dominate much more when contrarian lines hit (such as WSH L3 the other night).

  • yisman

    @Zieg30 said...

    Let’s talk about how people mass-entering effects those entering fewer entries.

    I know that those entering 150 have a better chance of finishing first than I do. I also know that the very fact that a number of people are entering 150 means that (1) there will be many contrarian lineups entered (more second and third lines, etc.) that would otherwise not have been entered, and (2) there will generally be many different combinations that would otherwise not have been entered.

    But otherwise, how am I actually disadvantaged by entering 20 lineups versus someone else’s 150?

    I hate that our standard large NHL GPP is 150 entries rather than 20, but that’s because there will always be some mass-enterers filling the top of every single GPP, which is frustrating and saps my motivation to continue playing, but on a pure numbers basis, am I actually disadvantaged? Does a mass-enterer have a better chance of finishing with a profit than I do (excluding from this answer the fact that they’re likely better at this than I am by virtue of the fact that they mass enter and keep doing so)? Do those mass entries lower my chance of making a profit?

    lowers your chances of winning outright

    if you played against 1,000 people and they each played 1-5 lineups, there’s a good chance none have the random third line that goes off

    on the other hand, if you played against 12 guys max entering 150 lineups each, they will have a lot more coverage than the first example. A lot more lines/teams stacked.

    however, you could argue it increases your chances of cashing (but not a top cash) because there will be a lot of dead lineups with the bad lines that don’t go off

  • Zieg30

    • 525

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    @yisman said...

    lowers your chances of winning outright

    if you played against 1,000 people and they each played 1-5 lineups, there’s a good chance none have the random third line that goes off

    on the other hand, if you played against 12 guys max entering 150 lineups each, they will have a lot more coverage than the first example. A lot more lines/teams stacked.

    however, you could argue it increases your chances of cashing (but not a top cash) because there will be a lot of dead lineups with the bad lines that don’t go off

    Yup. I agree with this for sure.

  • pickles

    You also have to consider how small the nhl tourneys are. If you look at the $8 gpp on draftkings-its $1200 to max enter into a gpp with a prize pool thats usually around 30k. You can easily have a top 10 lineup and still lose money on the slate overall.

    You need a top 3 finish with some degree of regularity to really turn a profit or have a very tight core that places in the money often.

  • MakinItkane9

    Merry xmas everyone

  • JimmyTango

    @MakinItkane9 said...

    Merry xmas everyone

    You too!

    Looking at BOS and WPG tomorrow.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    BOS1, NJD1 (kind of), NYI1, WPG1 (kind of) and COL1 are the most obvious picks in my opinion. The ownership of NYI1 and COL1 will be huge!

  • JimmyTango

    @JimmyTango said...

    Looking at BOS and WPG tomorrow.

    Gah, I meant Wednesday. Too much eggnog.

  • sizzlebeans

    Another thing to consider with those MME guys is they offset GPP losses with cash games. When i have the patience to play both i tend to have better nights. On big slate nights i try to shoot for the moon in GPPs and my BR takes a massive hit if i don’t get one LU to make a run up the board.

    Lately I’ve been trying to play less LUs each night, making a few with high floor/ceiling and a few that have a greater chance of finishing DFL just to have those 0-1% plays that make all the difference when they hit.

    Good luck tomorrow guys. Someone here needs to take down the Holiday Skate.

  • Zieg30

    • 525

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    @Felixxberg said...

    BOS1, NJD1 (kind of), NYI1, WPG1 (kind of) and COL1 are the most obvious picks in my opinion. The ownership of NYI1 and COL1 will be huge!

    Can’t fit NYI1 and COL1 together, unfortunately!

  • Zieg30

    • 525

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    Biggest decision for me at the moment seems to be between Butcher and Vatanen.

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).