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  • bhdevault

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  • Volkster6

    Felix and I have this debate a lot — he is right. But here’s where we differ a bit in our argument.

    I’d rather play 75 LUs the same (which I’m doing tonight) and then use the other 75 to try and bink — one offs galore and 3rd and 4th lines mixed with different stud correlation.

    But if my core busts and the 75 don’t cash he’s right, I’ll need a top 3 finish to break even.

    But has anyone ever seen a MME specialist in ResultsDB. They’ll sometimes win like $50,750… type deal. In MLB it happens… well to me that’s because they likely played the same core to try and get their buy in back, and binked with another one off. I could be wrong but I’ve seen those wins lots of times.

    Excited to share results with you all tomorrow. Fantastic convo!

  • yisman

    Looks like Marner is playing tonight.

    I think Simon and Noesen are both very much in play.

  • jjwd

    @Volkster6 said...

    stud correlation

    LOL

  • lemay88

    Andersen is playing, not Hutchinson. I love Colorado even more now with Leafs on a back-to-back. Leafs have no defense.

    Edit: MacKinnon will break the slate tonight, that is my prediction. 2 goals and 2 assists with 8 shots.

  • Felixxberg

    • 933

      RG Overall Ranking

    @lemay88 said...

    Edit: MacKinnon will break the slate tonight, that is my prediction. 2 goals and 2 assists with 8 shots.

    I think Matthews will score. 4 games in a row without a goal is a lot for him. He played a bunch of road games lately, but he has 13 goals in 14 home games. The Leafs will be fired up after last night, and everyone will play Tavares-Marner because they’re cheaper. Not saying MacKinnon won’t score, but I prefer Matthews tonight.

  • Zieg30

    @Felixxberg said...

    A few years ago, when I max entered, I was just spreading as much as possible and hoping one of my lineups got to the top. The goal in a top heavy contest is to get to the top. The best way to achieve that is to have as many combos as possible. Having a tight core in a 10 game slate makes no sense to me. It does in a 5- game slate though.

    I wholeheartedly agree with everything you said your post except for this one paragraph.

    Spreading a ton will certainly maximize your potential to have a lineup in position to threaten for the top, but I do think it weakens your chances of actually winning and certainly lessens your chances of having a profitable night.

    When it comes to winning, think about how often 10-30 entries have the same two stacks and who wins and gets top 5 depends solely on the goalie and D combos? It’s not infrequent. If you really like your stacks, then having as many D and G combos with them (and including shifting in and out a linemate on occasion for something weird, etc), maximizes your chances of having that stack outperform everyone else who used those two lines together as well.

  • yisman

    DK stuck Rantanen on tier 1 tonight. Funny because it means he’s going to go basically unowned. Who would use him over MacK, McDavid, Draisatl?

    Same thing on tier 2. Carlson/Malkin going to be unowned.

  • Wingman

    Going back to basics and playing only home teams! Not playing EDM1 which has me scared…. they should be the chalk vs a b2b OTT

  • Steverino01

    @lemay88 said...

    Andersen is playing, not Hutchinson. I love Colorado even more now with Leafs on a back-to-back. Leafs have no defense.

    Edit: MacKinnon will break the slate tonight, that is my prediction. 2 goals and 2 assists with 8 shots.

    I agree. Then again, I’m an Avs fan.

  • yisman

    Backstrom GTD, which is a problem for lineup construction

  • lemay88

    @Felixxberg said...

    I think Matthews will score. 4 games in a row without a goal is a lot for him. He played a bunch of road games lately, but he has 13 goals in 14 home games. The Leafs will be fired up after last night, and everyone will play Tavares-Marner because they’re cheaper. Not saying MacKinnon won’t score, but I prefer Matthews tonight.

    Okay but I think Matthews is becoming a serious defensive liability. Matthews can score a goal, it won’t matter when MacKinnon embarrasses him.

    Calling it now, the back-to-back games will be the excuse why the Leafs lose tonight.

  • Cal_Naughton_Jr

    @lemay88 said...

    Okay but I think Matthews is becoming a serious defensive liability. Matthews can score a goal, it won’t matter when MacKinnon embarrasses him.

    Calling it now, the back-to-back games will be the excuse why the Leafs lose tonight.

    What makes Matthews a defensive liability?

  • jjwd

    #STUD CORRELATION

  • yisman

    interesting situation for the Capitals.

    They only took six Ds on their trip out west. Gudas is a GTD, like Backstrom.

    if Gudas can’t play, they’ll have to use 5 Ds

  • Volkster6

    You play them (well you don’t have to but should) because of their salary and what they can open up everywhere else. If they don’t hit oh well – they’re a punt which most lineups need regardless… but a cheap punt that will have exposure to studs on their line and increased minutes is typically hard to fade

  • Felixxberg

    • 933

      RG Overall Ranking

    @Zieg30 said...

    When it comes to winning, think about how often 10-30 entries have the same two stacks and who wins and gets top 5 depends solely on the goalie and D combos? It’s not infrequent. If you really like your stacks, then having as many D and G combos with them (and including shifting in and out a linemate on occasion for something weird, etc), maximizes your chances of having that stack outperform everyone else who used those two lines together as well.

    I guess a mix of both strategies would be the best. Entering 150 variations of a same lineup is just madness. Entering 5 variations of 30 different lineups would make sense. There’s so much variance and randomness that the odds of hitting the top two stacks together in a 10 game slate are incredibly small if you play only one lineup. With 30, you can mix 8 lines together. It will add up to 28 lineups. With 5 variations of each, it’s 140 lineups. You can go crazy on the last 10.

  • lemay88

    @Cal_Naughton_Jr said...

    What makes Matthews a defensive liability?

    You clearly did not watch the game yesterday or recent games.

  • Volkster6

    And play again on Friday — could be some Kings value

  • Cal_Naughton_Jr

    @lemay88 said...

    You clearly did not watch the game yesterday or recent games.

    Actually nevermind lol I like narratives

  • lemay88

    @Cal_Naughton_Jr said...

    Actually nevermind lol I like narratives

    A typical troll, I see

  • Zieg30

    @Felixxberg said...

    I guess a mix of both strategies would be the best. Entering 150 variations of a same lineup is just madness. Entering 5 variations of 30 different lineups would make sense. There’s so much variance and randomness that the odds of hitting the top two stacks together in a 10 game slate are incredibly small if you play only one lineup. With 30, you can mix 8 lines together. It will add up to 28 lineups. With 5 variations of each, it’s 140 lineups. You can go crazy on the last 10.

    I agree with you there.

  • hautalak

    Good stuff here today. I’m rolling 7. Not really “heavy” on any one line or guy but like the Avs, EDM, and WSH.

  • marker0357

    I think I’m going TOR1 and mix/match the rest.

  • hautalak

    Also made a quick friendly. 4 game slate so pick one player from each team and whatever goalie. Always a fun little gimmick.

    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/draftteam/82350456

  • lemay88

    Play all the Toronto please. I’m hoping they are high owned and I am on the 100% fade train

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