NHL FORUM

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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    7:05 PM :  Dallas ( 100 ) at  Florida ( -120 ) —- T: 5½o-20
    7:05 PM :  N.Y. Islanders ( -120 ) at  Buffalo ( 100 ) —- T: 5½u-10
    7:05 PM :  Washington ( 125 ) at  Columbus ( -145 ) —- T: 6½o-15
    7:05 PM :  Chicago ( 175 ) at  Boston ( -210 ) —- T: 6o-35
    7:35 PM :  Carolina ( -145 ) at  Ottawa ( 125 ) —- T: 6o-25
    7:35 PM :  Calgary ( 140 ) at  Tampa Bay ( -160 ) —- T: 6½o-40
    8:05 PM :  Philadelphia ( 135 ) at  Minnesota ( -155 ) —- T: 6u-20
    8:05 PM :  N.Y. Rangers ( 180 ) at  Winnipeg ( -220 ) —- T: 6½u-10
    8:05 PM :  New Jersey ( 175 ) at  St. Louis ( -210 ) —- T: 5½o-15
    8:05 PM :  Detroit ( 185 ) at  Nashville ( -225 ) —- T: 5½o-25
    9:05 PM :  Toronto ( -135 ) at  Colorado ( 115 ) —- T: 6½o-20
    10:05 PM :  Arizona ( 200 ) at  Vegas ( -240 ) —- T: 5½o-20

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NHL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NHL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • sizzlebeans

    @TnCowboy said...

    Same.

    But that said, I have to at least have one lineup with white hot CHI1 duo. I can’t seem to scroll past either of them. Also looking at some STL chalk.

    It’s all about the central tonight

  • Felixxberg

    I like 14 lines. If the $20 contest was somewhat decent, I would enter 75+ lineups in there… I hate those nights!

  • footballbutts

    Aw, I’m finally no longer rookie status on yahoo. It only took about 6 weeks. I’ll miss you, free money 50/50s…

  • PhoFever

    @footballbutts said...

    Aw, I’m finally no longer rookie status on yahoo. It only took about 6 weeks. I’ll miss you, free money 50/50s…

    Welcome, you are now swimming in the waters with the Cash Game Mafia. You will see the same 8-10 people entering into just about every contest every night, with their single cash lineup. They are good, be warned!

  • footballbutts

    @PhoFever said...

    Welcome, you are now swimming in the waters with the Cash Game Mafia. You will see the same 8-10 people entering into just about every contest every night, with their single cash lineup. They are good, be warned!

    Nah, this is around the time where I slowly watch my bankroll dwindle to nothing on daily $1 single entry GPPs.

    I don’t have time to research and optimize cash games every night!

  • Dallasg

    To echo what some have said, the $20 tournament payout structure is brutal. Bump 1st prize from $20k down to $10k and disperse the dollars in a more gradual way makes more sense……

    I’ll still roll 6 lineups and see what happens……

  • yisman

    general news:

    Malkin suspended one game for his high stick.

    Ducks will not be holding morning skates anymore.

    https://twitter.com/ElliottTeaford/status/1095448494926528512

  • yisman

    @hautalak said...

    Since it’s a big slate and we’ve been filling with ease. Here’s a 30 man for today that must fill!

    NHL Today at 7PM EST – $1 entry – 1/30 spots filled *** https://deeplink.me/draftkings.com/contest/draftteam/69184327

    filled 2 hours before lock!

    30 is a good place to stay for the big slates, though. More than that is too risky.

  • yisman

    @Felixxberg said...

    I just verified, and on last Thursday, when there was a $10K to 1st, $200 to 7th contest, a few guys entered 150 lineups anyway. BDholla89, volpez7, DollarBillW, I_Slewfoot_U, Awesemo, tomjk321, Mirage88, bretned, suidmach and Testosterown all had 150. At $8 a lineup, it means $1.2K each!

    I really don’t understand how guys who (I guess) have advanced math/stats knowledge think it’s a good idea to max enter a contest like that!

    I hate when DK’s main contest has a terrible structure. Entering 10- lineups and calling it a day.

    the worse the structure, the more important maxing it is

    https://twitter.com/ycmmat/status/1095211498056572928

    What good are 1 or 2 entries with such a top-heavy structure? If you’re going to play, you should be doing a lot of lineups. With that said, I cannot always follow this advice due to tickets.

    If they polled the DFS community I’m sure they’d find ycmmat is in the decided minority but it appears DK doesn’t care.

  • Felixxberg

    @yisman said...

    Ducks will not be holding morning skates anymore.

    I’ll target them every game until the end.

  • Felixxberg

    @yisman said...

    the worse the structure, the more important maxing it is

    https://twitter.com/ycmmat/status/1095211498056572928

    What good are 1 or 2 entries with such a top-heavy structure? If you’re going to play, you should be doing a lot of lineups. With that said, I cannot always follow this advice due to tickets.

    If they polled the DFS community I’m sure they’d find ycmmat is in the decided minority but it appears DK doesn’t care.

    I’m not sure what parts of your post are ironic and what are not (I know you don’t like the structure either), but I don’t think top heavy structures benefit max entry players. I calculated something last season and I’ll do it again right now to see if that’s still true.

  • sizzlebeans

    @Felixxberg said...

    I’m not sure what parts of your post are ironic and what are not (I know you don’t like the structure either), but I don’t think top heavy structures benefit max entry players. I calculated something last season and I’ll do it again right now to see if that’s still true.

    I usually look at how high I need one lineup to finish to win my money back, and adjust my entries accordingly. This Tuesday Special is $2820 to max enter. That means you need to finish at least 4th place to win your money back. Now, you don’t have to stick to that as a hard rule, and can assume you’ll cash a few and maybe get one into the top 10 or 15. With this structure, a top 10 finish leaves you needing to make up $2520 still. There’s no way a bunch of min cash lineups are going to make that up.

  • yisman

    Yahoo pricing:

    William Karlsson was $19 for seven straight games, then he went to $12 for one game, now he’s $18. Reilly Smith went from $13 last game to $17 today.

  • yisman

    @Felixxberg said...

    I’m not sure what parts of your post are ironic and what are not (I know you don’t like the structure either), but I don’t think top heavy structures benefit max entry players. I calculated something last season and I’ll do it again right now to see if that’s still true.

    I’m skeptical of anyone making money on a 15% rake contest long term anyway but I would think that the people who max enter these on average get a better return on investment than people running 1 or 2 lineups. That’s the milly maker argument in DFS. The contest is very -EV unless you win and your 1 lineup doesn’t stand much of a chance against the people running 150.

    With that said, I didn’t run the numbers. I’m just speaking of what seems logical. I’d be more inclined to use a single lineup in a contest with a reasonable payout structure.

    Yahoo contest still only 3/8, btw https://sports.yahoo.com/dailyfantasy/contest/4276865

  • sizzlebeans

    Punt of the night = Roope Hintz $2500 on DK

  • Felixxberg

    I have run a quick analysis and last year’s sample didn’t give the same results as this year.

    I took the last seven $8 contests and looked at the % of entries that the mass enterers (100+ lineups, and 88 in one occasion because the contest was smaller) have on the field. It was always between 18% and 26%. Then, I looked at their results in the top 5, top 10, top 50 and top 100 to see if they did better than the % of entries they had. The results are almost the same for every “top”. They’re a little better for top 50 and top 100 but it’s really close, so I would say the prize structure doesn’t change anything. Mass enterers crush casual players everywhere in the leaderboard at about the same pace.

    That said, sizzle’s explanation also makes a lot of sense, and there’s way too much variance to risk so much hoping for a top 4 in my opinion.

  • Steverino01

    My first night in the Tinkering Anonymous Association (TAA) and I’ve already fallen off the wagon…Why do I keep changing my lineups?

  • yisman

    Blake Coleman a scratch for New Jersey

  • Felixxberg

    Early lead in the forum contest!

  • hautalak

    Glad we could fill it. I figured It was Tues and they’d been filling early so why not.

    Started hot with CHI L2 goal but have faded down since.

  • Felixxberg

    @Felixxberg said...

    Early lead in the forum contest!

    1st in the 150, 2nd in the 333, 9th in the 20, 1st in the forum contest. I can already see it go down!

  • Felixxberg

    Does anyone have the link for the FHWC qualifier? I want to see if the_shashi has a shot!

  • yisman

    @Felixxberg said...

    Does anyone have the link for the FHWC qualifier? I want to see if the_shashi has a shot!

    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/69173740

  • the_shashi

    @Felixxberg said...

    I have run a quick analysis and last year’s sample didn’t give the same results as this year.

    I took the last seven $8 contests and looked at the % of entries that the mass enterers (100+ lineups, and 88 in one occasion because the contest was smaller) have on the field. It was always between 18% and 26%. Then, I looked at their results in the top 5, top 10, top 50 and top 100 to see if they did better than the % of entries they had. The results are almost the same for every “top”. They’re a little better for top 50 and top 100 but it’s really close, so I would say the prize structure doesn’t change anything. Mass enterers crush casual players everywhere in the leaderboard at about the same pace.

    That said, sizzle’s explanation also makes a lot of sense, and there’s way too much variance to risk so much hoping for a top 4 in my opinion.

    I guess I’m one of the few that prefers the top heavy prize structure for large field tourneys. I wouldn’t max enter them in the hopes of winning the top prize when there are so many max entrants in these contests. But the way I construct nightly lineups, it’s boom or bust. I’m also used to this prize structure having mostly played on FD.

    Tonight i entered 40 lineups in the special. 60% tb2 + vasi. Literally boom or bust lol. I wish i picked bos1 instead after i watched that bos-chi 1st period.

  • canuck1995

    @the_shashi said...

    Tonight i entered 40 lineups in the special. 60% tb2 + vasi. Literally boom or bust lol. I wish i picked bos1 instead after i watched that bos-chi 1st period.

    Bos1/TB2 is a combo you could have had, didn’t even think to throw it together unfortunately.

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