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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    8:05 PM :  Edmonton ( 170 ) at  Pittsburgh ( -200 ) —- T: 5½o-08
    10:35 PM :  Vancouver ( -110 ) at  Anaheim ( -110 ) —- T: 5½u-15

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NHL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NHL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • PocketsSloppy

    $1 – 20 player – top 5

    https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/69227576

  • PhoFever

    Worst slate of the year, other than the one-gamers.

  • hautalak

    You seem to be right here… Does ANH finally score some goals or have they packed it in. Pettersson night? Well that’s easy but where else that game?!

    McDavid and a Pens onslaught looks nice. Play this slate all ways!

  • rgreuli

    Gonna be a Vancouver Line 3 kinda of night,with multiple goals by Goldobin and Virtanen.

  • rgreuli

    FWIW – Each of the teams have played one game against one another. Pit beat Edmonton 6-5 with multiple goals by Crosby, Hornqvist, Chiasson and Draisital. Anaheim beat Vancouver 4-3 with multiple goals from no one. Goalies were Murray, Talbot, Markstrom and Gibson.

  • rgreuli

    @hautalak said...

    You seem to be right here… Does ANH finally score some goals or have they packed it in. Pettersson night? Well that’s easy but where else that game?!

    McDavid and a Pens onslaught looks nice. Play this slate all ways!

    Yep, favorite team stacks tonight are Van, Ana, Edm, Pit.

  • footballbutts

    This slate is truly awful, which means I’m going to play exactly one lineup in one contest and it’ll be my best lineup all year.

  • PhoFever

    Here we go again with the OddsShark wackiness: EDM over PIT in a squeaker, and a whopping, 4-goal blowout by the Canucks.

    Before you start scratching your head, look at what happened last night: OddsShark predicted a low-scoring OT game for NSH/DET (ended 3-2), a 4 goal victory by TOR (ended 5-2) , a 3 goal victory by CAR (ended 4-1) a Blues blowout (ended 8-3) PHI winning a high scoring game by a goal (ended 5-4), Dallas winning by 3 (they won 3-0)….some uncanny sh$t right there.

  • hautalak

    @PhoFever said...

    Here we go again with the OddsShark wackiness: EDM over PIT in a squeaker, and a whopping, 4-goal blowout by the Canucks.

    OddsShark loves you!!! You could be their PR guy lol

    In all seriousness it is weird how they’ve seemed to “figure out” the NHL although it’s sink or swim with them it seems. All their crazy s*** happens or they look like idiots picking the teams with AHL squads or just bad lines period.

    Today nothing will surprise me. I mean pretty much nothing as far as how the games play out. We could have some weird supernatural stuff go on or something.

  • PhoFever

    Haha, yes they are a great resource not only for NHL but for soccer.

    Also a huge fan of the DFO Corsica Bets article, although they are erratic about publishing it. Maybe they are trying to lure people in and then stick it behind a pay wall, as they did with the line matching article.

    Used to kinda like the RotoWire NHL optimizer, but after several months of seeing it make the exact same recommendations (aka whoever is playing PIT no matter what, and Burns/Karlsson no matter what) it became clear that something was off with their formula.

  • sizzlebeans

    @rgreuli said...

    multiple goals by Goldobin

    Sorry, couldn’t help but laugh when I read this.

  • Southie777

    Last night was extremely frustrating. Being a Bruins fan and going to the game, I was even heavier on them than usual. I just don’t buy that the Blackhawks have turned a corner, good offense but no defense. Loved Bergy/Marchy/Heinen and Krejci/DeBrusk/Cehlarek. But everything I paired them with underwhelmed or was just plain awful! If only I had paired them with each other! Oh well, on to the next one. Which is atrocious. I see exactly one way I want to attack this one, so that is what I shall do.

  • sizzlebeans

    Congrats on last night Shashi, Felix, and anyone else who did well for themselves. I sure as shit didn’t, lol. I will be going to ANA3 and fading the Canuck chalk just in hopes of passing the field. Not because they’re sharp plays.

  • PhoFever

    @Southie777 said...

    Last night was extremely frustrating. Being a Bruins fan and going to the game, I was even heavier on them than usual. I just don’t buy that the Blackhawks have turned a corner, good offense but no defense. Loved Bergy/Marchy/Heinen and Krejci/DeBrusk/Cehlarek. But everything I paired them with underwhelmed or was just plain awful! If only I had paired them with each other! Oh well, on to the next one. Which is atrocious. I see exactly one way I want to attack this one, so that is what I shall do.

    Yeah, it was one of those nights where lots of lines went off and the cash line was higher. Picking one under-owned stack correctly simply wasn’t enough. I stuck with my TOR2/3 commitment, but didn’t go as heavy as I should have; ended up with too many NSH/TOR combos and not enough STL/TOR combos which resulted in minimum cashing and bubbling where I could have been firmly in the black.

  • hautalak

    @PhoFever said...

    Haha, yes they are a great resource not only for NHL but for soccer.

    Also a huge fan of the DFO Corsica Bets article, although they are erratic about publishing it. Maybe they are trying to lure people in and then stick it behind a pay wall, as they did with the line matching article.

    Maybe I’ll start to dabble.

    I know this isn’t exactly related but I don’t want to “learn” corsi nor have ever relied on it. I’m still old fashioned when it comes to NHL stats. I’ll just use the Hurricanes as my example why…

  • sizzlebeans

    @hautalak said...

    Maybe I’ll start to dabble.

    I know this isn’t exactly related but I don’t want to “learn” corsi nor have ever relied on it. I’m still old fashioned when it comes to NHL stats. I’ll just use the Hurricanes as my example why…

    Honestly, every time I try and get fancy and look at “advanced stats” I end up on lines I didn’t like upon initial look, and the lines that my gut picked always do better. Your CAR example is spot on. There are several teams on the other side of that, too, that have poor advanced stats but always put up good real stats – you know, the stats that score fantasy points.

  • hautalak

    @sizzlebeans said...

    Honestly, every time I try and get fancy and look at “advanced stats” I end up on lines I didn’t like upon initial look, and the lines that my gut picked always do better. Your CAR example is spot on. There are several teams on the other side of that, too, that have poor advanced stats but always put up good real stats – you know, the stats that score fantasy points.

    Glad you agree because when I saw you comment I was expecting the opposite as you “know and understand” that stuff better than I. Haven’t got as far as low/high danger chances but can see the merit in those.

  • PhoFever

    @hautalak said...

    I don’t want to “learn” corsi nor have ever relied on it.

    Me neither. If we are being honest, I pretty much don’t want to do any real research or analysis. I’m doing fine enough simply by cobbling together tidbits from free sites, looking at Vegas lines, and “gut feeling” picks. Over time, just paying attention to the game and the league every day can give you a decent sense of where to attack.

    Now if I were playing DK every day, that would be a different story!

  • the_shashi

    @sizzlebeans said...

    Congrats on last night Shashi, Felix, and anyone else who did well for themselves. I sure as shit didn’t, lol. I will be going to ANA3 and fading the Canuck chalk just in hopes of passing the field. Not because they’re sharp plays.

    Thanks again Sizzle! Also thanks everyone for the kind words in the message board posted late today – I’m going to reply here.

    Hautalak, yes I used the same lineup as I did in the forum contest. What I enter in the contest when I play is what I think is my “best” lineup for that day.

    So they say things happen in 3s – the forum has gotten the 2 latest seats. I don’t know how many superstitious folks in here like me but if the saying is true, we could get the next one too! I think the 15$ qualifier is coming up – we ALL should play it (satellites as low as 0.25$).

  • hautalak

    @PhoFever said...

    Now if I were playing DK every day, that would be a different story!

    Maybe that’s why I’m doing so bad there… lol

    But yeah other than some minor game log diving (last 5 games on DFO in the stats tab) I typically play what I “think” will happen no different than anybody else I suppose. I know Felix goes more in depth on home and away but I put a little less merit into that (unless there’s an alarming difference). Last but not least like we both love to “hedge” a lineup with guys you haven’t played or teams/lines you don’t like that could break the slate (ARI last night). I sure didn’t have any of them last night!

  • sizzlebeans

    @hautalak said...

    Glad you agree because when I saw you comment I was expecting the opposite as you “know and understand” that stuff better than I. Haven’t got as far as low/high danger chances but can see the merit in those.

    We’re making guesses on a high variance sport. I haven’t found anything predictive in advanced stats. Perhaps people smarter than I have. What I think they can do is show where a team may be vulnerable over the course of a whole season or a range of games, but those stats don’t take into account the quality of the competition, injuries, current line configurations, etc. I play with those stats just because I’m am a total stat geek, but like I said, they haven’t helped me. All my big wins come from nights I do not stat research, and trust what I see, trust teams on hot streaks, trust certain narratives. All the intangible stuff stats cannot measure. Advanced stats and metrics are a guide, and are better for some sports that others. I do not believe the NHL can be solved by advanced metrics.

  • the_shashi

    @sizzlebeans said...

    Honestly, every time I try and get fancy and look at “advanced stats” I end up on lines I didn’t like upon initial look, and the lines that my gut picked always do better. Your CAR example is spot on. There are several teams on the other side of that, too, that have poor advanced stats but always put up good real stats – you know, the stats that score fantasy points.

    These comments are spot on. DFO doesn’t adjust for situational variance. They could do a better job informing their customers about that. One stat that isn’t situational dependent (but skill dependent) is PDO. I use that.

  • yisman

    @PhoFever said...

    Haha, yes they are a great resource not only for NHL but for soccer.

    Also a huge fan of the DFO Corsica Bets article, although they are erratic about publishing it. Maybe they are trying to lure people in and then stick it behind a pay wall, as they did with the line matching article.

    Used to kinda like the RotoWire NHL optimizer, but after several months of seeing it make the exact same recommendations (aka whoever is playing PIT no matter what, and Burns/Karlsson no matter what) it became clear that something was off with their formula.

    Yeah I’ve noticed that. I saw the Corsica bets section on DFO a few months ago and bookmarked the page but then it often wasn’t posted in future days.

    I find NHL optimizers to be pretty useless.

    rotowire’s usually results in stacking a team and it has always loved Burns, Karlsson, Pavelski, and Couture.

  • hautalak

    @sizzlebeans said...

    I do not believe the NHL can be solved by advanced metrics.

    Words to my ears! Now to “build better lineups” ;)

    And Shashi that’s great and figured that was the one, just wanted to check. That was in the 1K contest right? You had multiple single players beat my lineup which is insane!!! WPG 2/OTT1, Josi/Chabot, and Nilsson…

  • PhoFever

    @hautalak said...

    Last but not least like we both love to “hedge” a lineup with guys you haven’t played or teams/lines you don’t like that could break the slate (ARI last night).

    Yep. My weakness has always been with “overkill” hedges where I stack all the lines and goalies I am light on into one or two lineups, rather than mix underused with chalk.

    Funny, regarding the Yotes last night, I didn’t really think of them as a “slatebreaker’ since their ownership was non-existent. However, their outburst killed off all the Fleury owners ,and pretty much handed the victory spoils to the people who took their goalies from the earlier games.

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