NHL FORUM

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    5:00 PM :  Florida ( ) at  Carolina ( ) —- T:
    7:08 PM :  Ottawa ( 250 ) at  Toronto ( -315 ) —- T: 6½o-14
    7:38 PM :  Chicago ( -132 ) at  Detroit ( 110 ) —- T: 5½o-11
    10:08 PM :  Winnipeg ( 116 ) at  Edmonton ( -139 ) —- T: 6½o-18
    10:08 PM :  Vancouver ( 127 ) at  Calgary ( -52 ) —- T: 6½o-22

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NHL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s NHL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    Perfect slate for some fun!!!

    Haven’t done it in a while but am gonna put up a gimmick contest with a 4 gamer. One player from each team and pick whichever goalie. Here’s the contest.

    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/draftteam/103552774

  • marker0357

    @hautalak said...

    Perfect slate for some fun!!!

    Haven’t done it in a while but am gonna put up a gimmick contest with a 4 gamer. One player from each team and pick whichever goalie. Here’s the contest.

    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/draftteam/103552774

    I’m in. Should be fun. Hope to avoid complete embarassment.

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @marker0357 said...

    Hope to avoid complete embarassment.

    So do we all! These are fun b/c it’s basically all or nothing. We’ve seen some huge scores from guys doing this.

  • Zieg30

    • 470

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #97

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    @hautalak said...

    Perfect slate for some fun!!!

    Haven’t done it in a while but am gonna put up a gimmick contest with a 4 gamer. One player from each team and pick whichever goalie. Here’s the contest.

    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/draftteam/103552774

    Haha. This is great. My team is giving me nightmares, but I also had to enter it into the Twine just in case. What if it takes it down with its uncorrelated madness!?!?

  • nickbloggerman

    Yeah I’m in, always throw these lineups in a cheap GPP for fun as well. Cool idea.

  • thedkexperience

    Hardly a stretch considering they are a -295 favorite but my goalie of the day is Toronto’s Frederik Andersen.

    For those who haven’t followed I’ve picked a 20+ point goalie in 8 of my last 9 slates (I missed one day binging UFC).

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @Zieg30 said...

    Haha. This is great. My team is giving me nightmares, but I also had to enter it into the Twine just in case. What if it takes it down with its uncorrelated madness!?!?

    Same here!

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @thedkexperience said...

    Hardly a stretch considering they are a -295 favorite but my goalie of the day is Toronto’s Frederik Andersen.

    For those who haven’t followed I’ve picked a 20+ point goalie in 8 of my last 9 slates (I missed one day binging UFC).

    Will the streak keep going? Stay tuned!

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @Zieg30 said...

    What if it takes it down with its uncorrelated madness!?!?

    Link Quot

    Even more possible this year IMO!!!

  • thedkexperience

    @Felixxberg said...

    Will the streak keep going? Stay tuned!

    I hope so! I just bet on the Maple Leafs!

  • thedkexperience

    @hautalak said...

    Even more possible this year IMO!!!

    I really respect the opinion of you guys in this forum. Many of you I’ve been reading on this forum and other RG forums for years.

    Anyway, as I’ve said before I find the correlation between DFS baseball and hockey to be extremely high which is the whole reason I gave hockey a shot in the first place.

    That said, when I started winning regularly in baseball (about 3.5 years ago) I did with a high amount of stacks even in game modes that you “weren’t supposed to” stack. I got clowned on this forum many times for stacking in baseball and then 2-3 years later the whole thing changed. Everyone was now stacking.

    You know what I noticed in August when baseball returned? That I won more all of a sudden now when I went out of my way not to stack and instead put way more stock into getting a homer out of every position instead of relying on stacks to pull each other up.

    Anyway, when I played hockey in the past I tried stacking a lot. First lines, power play units etc. Never won anything. Meanwhile now that I’m almost blindly playing anyone with short odds to score a goal I’ve cashed in 10 of the 15 games I’ve played. The 5 I didn’t cash in were all just missed.

    So this brings me to my long winded point.

    Like baseball do you guys think it’s possible that DFS hockey is doing a 180 where the “right thing” to do of stacking might not actually be the right thing to do anymore?

    I always enjoy mid day existential DFS questions that make everyone question their process.

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @thedkexperience said...

    Like baseball do you guys think it’s possible that DFS hockey is doing a 180 where the “right thing” to do of stacking might not actually be the right thing to do anymore?

    I think this is question worth asking and talking about. I think we kind of talked about when you first started playing about a week back. I think you are correct where you don’t “need” to force stacks. That being said I do think there are mutually beneficial duos that you should likely always play together.

    I think BOS, COL, TB, and WPG are a few lines like that. You won’t ever see me playing a “naked” Bergeron, MacK (well maybe him), Point, Scheif (or another one of their Cs/Ws). Otherwise I can see picking out a few guys on teams with limited goal scorers. I think NHL is a little more “dependent” than baseball.

  • Krausehouse

    • 2020 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @thedkexperience said...

    I really respect the opinion of you guys in this forum. Many of you I’ve been reading on this forum and other RG forums for years.

    Anyway, as I’ve said before I find the correlation between DFS baseball and hockey to be extremely high which is the whole reason I gave hockey a shot in the first place.

    That said, when I started winning regularly in baseball (about 3.5 years ago) I did with a high amount of stacks even in game modes that you “weren’t supposed to” stack. I got clowned on this forum many times for stacking in baseball and then 2-3 years later the whole thing changed. Everyone was now stacking.

    You know what I noticed in August when baseball returned? That I won more all of a sudden now when I went out of my way not to stack and instead put way more stock into getting a homer out of every position instead of relying on stacks to pull each other up.

    Anyway, when I played hockey in the past I tried stacking a lot. First lines, power play units etc. Never won anything. Meanwhile now that I’m almost blindly playing anyone with short odds to score a goal I’ve cashed in 10 of the 15 games I’ve played. The 5 I didn’t cash in were all just missed.

    So this brings me to my long winded point.

    Like baseball do you guys think it’s possible that DFS hockey is doing a 180 where the “right thing” to do of stacking might not actually be the right thing to do anymore?

    I always enjoy mid day existential DFS questions that make everyone question their process.

    Correlation matters a lot less than it used to… I still like to think it matters now, but I think for the most possible upside you should still be stacking. Interested in hearing other peoples opinion. I almost never go out of my way to correlate punt D, that’s where I feel like over correlation becomes a problem.

  • tristanwolf

    @hautalak said...

    Perfect slate for some fun!!!

    Haven’t done it in a while but am gonna put up a gimmick contest with a 4 gamer. One player from each team and pick whichever goalie. Here’s the contest.

    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/draftteam/103552774

    lol not often i start an lu with matthews, mcdavid, kane

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @Krausehouse said...

    I almost never go out of my way to correlate punt D, that’s where I feel like over correlation becomes a problem.

    For the most part I’m not concerned about correlated D unless they are a big part of the PP. I think your “punt” D need to be shot takers, blockers, or both. The “points” are just the cherry on top!

  • thedkexperience

    Thanks for the feedback guys! Always good to brainstorm. One of the things I believe the DFS community lacks is more “general strategy” talk. We all focus so much on each days slate that it’s easy to lose the forest through the trees without considering that the meta can change year over year unexpectedly.

  • cplatt87

    Haven’t really spent much time look over things today, but at a glance I can’t imagine Toronto is going to get lit up by Ottawa again. My only question there is whether Matthews smashes for the 2nd straight game or not.

    I might load up on the 2 late games and hope the Leafs/Sens game is a bust. I’ll also almost assuredly be playing a goalie in the DET/CHI game since I have a pretty solid “no Canadian teams goalies” rule that I’ve been following so far.

  • marker0357

    @thedkexperience said...

    Thanks for the feedback guys! Always good to brainstorm. One of the things I believe the DFS community lacks is more “general strategy” talk. We all focus so much on each days slate that it’s easy to lose the forest through the trees without considering that the meta can change year over year unexpectedly.

    my strategy, if you can call it that, is to use multiple short stacks (2 per). I try to get 3 in a game set. Sometimes you’re the dog (hit the right combos), sometimes you’re the fire hydrant (the guy you didn’t pick goes off or you’re on the wrong line). I care less about the goalie winner and more about expected SOG’s.

  • klubba575

    Being willing to go against the flow can be profitable in all DFS sports which I think is the major point you have found successful thedkexperience. I think we all make minor adjustments to our process based on success/or not. I have had success with stacking so I stick with it, plus I don’t have the time to try and build 20+ individual player lineups, so stacking is easier for building lineups after my real job. Last night the big FD tourney won with full COL1/LA1 Doughty + Blackwood. The night before on DK was EDM1/CAR1 with Reimer. Sometimes the minor tweak is taking a stack others overlook. For instance, last night both WAS/PIT was in a “smash” matchup, but few played WSH3 which had 2 full line goals. If you have a good process, stick with it. If you want to try something new, why not. If you can have fun and win, that’s the double whammy!

  • thedkexperience

    @klubba575 said...

    Being willing to go against the flow can be profitable in all DFS sports which I think is the major point you have found successful thedkexperience. I think we all make minor adjustments to our process based on success/or not. I have had success with stacking so I stick with it, plus I don’t have the time to try and build 20+ individual player lineups, so stacking is easier for building lineups after my real job. Last night the big FD tourney won with full COL1/LA1 Doughty + Blackwood. The night before on DK was EDM1/CAR1 with Reimer. Sometimes the minor tweak is taking a stack others overlook. For instance, last night both WAS/PIT was in a “smash” matchup, but few played WSH3 which had 2 full line goals. If you have a good process, stick with it. If you want to try something new, why not. If you can have fun and win, that’s the double whammy!

    It also helps me that I only play single entry tournaments 99.9% of the time. Trying to work out any more than 3 lineups in a slate (I don’t mind 3 lineup MMA for instance) just kind of breaks my brain. Probably the biggest difference between me and a lot of people is that I don’t play single entries for safety. When it goes bad for me it goes REALLY BAD, but I do end up min cashing a bunch because if you mess up while shooting for the stars sometimes you’ll still end up doing reasonably well.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    The last few days have been weird. Low scores all around. On a normal 6-10 game slate, at least two lines will score 3 points together and you’ll need them to win. For cashing, going with one-offs is fine, but for winning a GPP, I don’t like it.

    Players play and score together, and every goal can be worth 3 real life points. It’s not like in MLB where you have to decide if you go 1-2-3-4 or 1-2-4-5 or 1-3-4-5, etc. Lines (normally) play together all game and are (almost) never on the ice at the same time as other lines. On a small slate like tonight, maybe all games will end up 2-1, and it’ll be a matter of who has the best one-offs, but even on a low scoring night like yesterday, winning lineups had stacks (COL1, VGK2, LAK1), and no one had it, but NJ3 (Merkley-Zacha-Kuokkanen) was the line of the night.

    I also look at D correlation. People lucked out on Bouchard last game, because he’s not really correlated with EDM1. They play pretty much all game with Barrie-Nurse. Bouchard is fine because of his peripherals, but he’s just not correlated with EDM1. Don’t expect him to get points on their goals. He still plays a few minutes with them, but not that many. Slewfoot lucked out with Kakko-Fox yesterday, because they’re not correlated even though they play on the same team.

    VAN1 (Pettersson) hard matches with Hughes, COL1 with Makar, TOR1 with Rielly-Brodie except for last game where they also played with Muzzin-Holl.

    My point is, playing a guy like Lagesson doesn’t get you correlation if you play EDM1. I would even call it anticorrelation, as if one scores, the other won’t.

  • capsgm2002

    I’m still learning the ropes, too. Managed to get some decent cash out of the infamous 5-cent contest on FanDuel last night thanks to VGK2/COL1/Quick and fading the PIT/WSH game that some expected would smash. 127 out of 150 entries finished in the money with five of them in the Top 35.

    Have a feeling CGY1 could go off tonight. M. Tkachuk is long overdue and one of these days he’ll pay off.

    Poolman at 2600 on DK is an intriguing punt at D as well.

  • Zieg30

    • 470

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #97

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    @Krausehouse said...

    Correlation matters a lot less than it used to… I still like to think it matters now, but I think for the most possible upside you should still be stacking. Interested in hearing other peoples opinion. I almost never go out of my way to correlate punt D, that’s where I feel like over correlation becomes a problem.

    Yeah, DK’s point change beginning last season made it less necessary to correlate, but I think it’s still the smart approach.

    Basically, whereas before the point change you would see stacked lineups at the top of the standings 8 out of every 10 days, now you might see them up there 6 out of every 10, with some zanier combos more prevalent.

  • Boooooourns

    • 2016 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @Zieg30 said...

    Yeah, DK’s point change beginning last season made it less necessary to correlate, but I think it’s still the smart approach.

    This. Assists became less important when they added the shot bonus. 2 assists is worth less than 5 shots.

  • Stangs13

    One issue I have had in dfs is believing to much into what I read. For years we have learned stacks and correlation. Now it is nearly impossible for me to make a lineup that isn’t correlated and feel good about it. With that said I am not at all consistent in cashing. I will have weeks where I am up big then go for weeks with nothing, and in the end i am a close to break even player. I know there is something wrong with my process but don’t know what.

    In addition to what you guys are saying I think it can be a mix of both of your strategies. Find the guys with the high goal scoring props and correlate them with a line mate or two with worse props.

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