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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    12:35 PM : 51 Pittsburgh ( -130 ) at 52 Buffalo ( 110 ) —- T: -130
    3:35 PM : 53 Chicago ( -115 ) at 54 Minnesota ( -105 ) —- T: -115
    7:05 PM : 55 Detroit ( 0 ) at 56 N.Y. Rangers ( 0 ) —- T: 0
    7:05 PM : 57 Calgary ( 165 ) at 58 Anaheim ( -190 ) —- T: 165
    7:05 PM : 59 Tampa Bay ( 0 ) at 60 Carolina ( 0 ) —- T: 0
    10:05 PM : 61 Colorado ( -105 ) at 62 Vancouver ( -115 ) —- T: -105

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NHL strategy talk for today’s games. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. Please make it a point to say if you’re talking about Cash or GPP options

  • yuda

    Teams I’ll be targeting in today’s slate: (Caveat: I had almost zero exposure to BOS and STL yesterday…..)

    1) ANA is in a fantastic spot at home with a sieve between the pipes. I will be looking at all of their lines, whoever gets the start in goal, trainers, and concession workers in this one.

    2) NYR at home taking on DET with Howard in goal and playing the second night of a back to back.

    3) PIT has a nice matchup against BUF. Lehner has been hot his last three games but PIT should stick a few in today. I like Sid over Kane for superstars today.

    4) COL I usually like Semy in GPP’s since he usually faces a lot of shots and has a high ceiling. VAN doesn’t scare me off him and I will try to get some of their skaters in also.

    I’m not sure what to make of the MIN-CHI game yet. I can’t wait to watch it but not sure if there is much to target for DFS. I have been liking the value in MIN1 lately.

  • jregger

    Any body else get completely worked over yesterday by the Vegas lines? It’s not a huge core of my process, but definitely where I start on a daily basis. On to another day…

  • sabresrock29

    Sabres stack!! Just take the money

  • beckyjets68

    FYI – Reily is reportedly out today

  • sabresrock29

    @beckyjets68 said...

    FYI – Reily is reportedly out today

    Yes he is and will most likely miss more than a few games.

  • dailysportreport

    @beckyjets68 said...

    FYI – Reily is reportedly out today

    Thank you for that! I just submitted a lineup a few minutes ago and DK didn’t have O’Reilly as out… When I went back to look, he is now out. I appreciate the heads up! Was hard to find a sub though…

  • dailysportreport

    Who are you guys using in net tonight? I like Gibson (if he starts), but he will likely be the chalk.. The other favorite is probably Lundqvist, but the Wings fan in me won’t allow me to play him (I also won’t start Howard, based on recent performances).

    I’m going to use Cam Ward in one GPP LU if he ends up starting. Ward should be somewhat low-owned, and I feel like they have a decent shot to win at home against TB on B2B. Also considering Miller (if he plays) against my nemesis Varlamov. Miller is a solid goalie, and should face a good amount of shots. Even though Varlamov has performed fairly well recently, whenever I start him I get burned.

    I’m not really sold on anyone… Would like to hear some other people’s thoughts/reasoning for GPPs. I’ve been on the schneide when it comes to picking goalies. I could use the help!

  • dude_abides7

    FD back down to the $30K Breakaway…Oh well, it was good while it lasted. I can’t wait to enter the $7500 and $2500 Breakaway #2 and #3 today.

    #growsomeballs

  • Zieg30

    • 714

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    @dailysportreport said...

    Who are you guys using in net tonight? I like Gibson (if he starts), but he will likely be the chalk.. The other favorite is probably Lundqvist, but the Wings fan in me won’t allow me to play him (I also won’t start Howard, based on recent performances).

    I’m going to use Cam Ward in one GPP LU if he ends up starting. Ward should be somewhat low-owned, and I feel like they have a decent shot to win at home against TB on B2B. Also considering Miller (if he plays) against my nemesis Varlamov. Miller is a solid goalie, and should face a good amount of shots. Even though Varlamov has performed fairly well recently, whenever I start him I get burned.

    I’m not really sold on anyone… Would like to hear some other people’s thoughts/reasoning for GPPs. I’ve been on the schneide when it comes to picking goalies. I could use the help!

    My lineups are pretty evenly split between whichever ANH goalie starts, Lundqvist, and Varlamov.

  • dailysportreport

    @Zieg30 said...

    My lineups are pretty evenly split between whichever ANH goalie starts, Lundqvist, and Varlamov.

    Seems smart! I appreciate the response. Good to hear from someone who has a solid track record in the NHL. I wish I could get over my personal biases when it comes to picking players… Good luck tonight!

  • yuda

    @Zieg30 said...

    My lineups are pretty evenly split between whichever ANH goalie starts, Lundqvist, and Varlamov.

    Same for me, I’m not trying to overthink goalie today. ANH and Henrik are in very good spots and similar price or cheaper than Semy. I’ll be looking to differentiate with skaters today.

  • keephustlincuz

    @dailysportreport said...

    Who are you guys using in net tonight? I like Gibson (if he starts), but he will likely be the chalk.. The other favorite is probably Lundqvist, but the Wings fan in me won’t allow me to play him (I also won’t start Howard, based on recent performances).

    I’m going to use Cam Ward in one GPP LU if he ends up starting. Ward should be somewhat low-owned, and I feel like they have a decent shot to win at home against TB on B2B. Also considering Miller (if he plays) against my nemesis Varlamov. Miller is a solid goalie, and should face a good amount of shots. Even though Varlamov has performed fairly well recently, whenever I start him I get burned.

    I’m not really sold on anyone… Would like to hear some other people’s thoughts/reasoning for GPPs. I’ve been on the schneide when it comes to picking goalies. I could use the help!

    I think you pretty much have it. Gibson and the King are the chalk goalies. I also have Ward in a couple lineups. Varlamov could be interesting.

    Chalk skaters are Ana and NY. I will differentiate with Car and Col.

    O/U on vatanen ownership? I’ll set the line at 27.

  • Zieg30

    • 714

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    @dailysportreport said...

    Seems smart! I appreciate the response. Good to hear from someone who has a solid track record in the NHL. I wish I could get over my personal biases when it comes to picking players… Good luck tonight!

    Good luck to you, too!

  • Olhausen

    @dude_abides7 said...

    FD back down to the $30K Breakaway…Oh well, it was good while it lasted. I can’t wait to enter the $7500 and $2500 Breakaway #2 and #3 today.

    #growsomeballs

    Didn’t they have massive overlay the other day along with draft Kings?

  • jonsousa46

    Interested to hear thoughts on VAN tonight? I really like their top line, and we know that Colorado is going to surrender possession a lot. Daniel Sedin could be the top play for the late slate. I also like Hutton as a value defenseman.

    Also, I think that Carolina will be under owned, and I’m really liking Jordan Staal. He’s been on a tear recently, and I think that people will either be paying up at center or trying to find some value, which could leave Staal at a decent ownership percentage.

  • dailysportreport

    Warning: Kind of off topic!

    I’m curious to hear what type of data that NHL DFS players use/emphasize in their “analyses”. Besides the lineup building tactics of stacking linemates and powerplay units, what statistics do you focus on to differentiate your predictions from the pay sites and other prediction aggregators? Each site probably uses their own recipe, and we probably won’t ever know for sure exactly what they account for. Similarly, each DFS site uses their own weighted data analysis to set the daily salaries, and it’s even more important to differentiate from their calculations to find real value…

    Somebody posted a link to this article in another thread: http://www.quantifan.com/post/106972747368/projecting-nba-fantasy-points-per-game

    It’s extremely interesting, even if the programming doesn’t appeal to you. Unfortunately, the analysis was done for the NBA, and doesn’t relate to NHL at all. It basically states that minutes per game is by far the stat that best correlates to Fantasy Points, and somewhat less importantly, average minutes per game for the last 3 games is the best predictor of potential minutes played. Contrary to what many people on the NBA forum claim, pace is basically a useless predictor of FP.

    One of the other extremely interesting things that I took from this article was the example of Lebron James performance in relation to his last 3 games performance. In a way it makes sense… Over a long season, Lebron’s average FP/game will likely be fairly constant. If he recently had 3 stellar games, statistically he is more likely to have a bad performance. Although the writer only analyzed one player, it definitely shows that using 3 game FP history is a terrible predictor of performance, and that it might be better to use players who have been in a slump, instead of a hot streak.

    The NHL is definitely a more “feast or famine” type of contest, and far less predictable than the NBA. With that said, the DFS sites, and the successful players have to be using some kind of data/statistics to predict performance.

    I would love to see something like this for NHL, but I don’t know if I have the brain power to accurately do it… I would be curious to hear what some of the more seasoned NHL DFSers think would be comparable in predicting NHL performance. Any thoughts?

  • Zieg30

    • 714

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    Around 100 teams had Bogosian in the all-day Sniper. Those combinations have a huge leg up, given his price tag.

    The teams with Letang and/or Ristolainen and no one else are also sitting pretty.

  • choppadown

    Took 4th in the Turbo $50 dollar quarter arcade last night…with a 45.6, for $2.01 :(. Beat all of my all day lineups by about double. Bleh.

    Looking at NYR to hang at least 4 on Howard tonight, Detroit has been looking terrible lately.

  • pokerrob1970

    DraftDay BLB Finalist

    @dailysportreport said...

    Warning: Kind of off topic!

    I’m curious to hear what type of data that NHL DFS players use/emphasize in their “analyses”. Besides the lineup building tactics of stacking linemates and powerplay units, what statistics do you focus on to differentiate your predictions from the pay sites and other prediction aggregators? Each site probably uses their own recipe, and we probably won’t ever know for sure exactly what they account for. Similarly, each DFS site uses their own weighted data analysis to set the daily salaries, and it’s even more important to differentiate from their calculations to find real value…

    Somebody posted a link to this article in another thread: http://www.quantifan.com/post/106972747368/projecting-nba-fantasy-points-per-game

    It’s extremely interesting, even if the programming doesn’t appeal to you. Unfortunately, the analysis was done for the NBA, and doesn’t relate to NHL at all. It basically states that minutes per game is by far the stat that best correlates to Fantasy Points, and somewhat less importantly, average minutes per game for the last 3 games is the best predictor of potential minutes played. Contrary to what many people on the NBA forum claim, pace is basically a useless predictor of FP.

    One of the other extremely interesting things that I took from this article was the example of Lebron James performance in relation to his last 3 games performance. In a way it makes sense… Over a long season, Lebron’s average FP/game will likely be fairly constant. If he recently had 3 stellar games, statistically he is more likely to have a bad performance. Although the writer only analyzed one player, it definitely shows that using 3 game FP history is a terrible predictor of performance, and that it might be better to use players who have been in a slump, instead of a hot streak.

    The NHL is definitely a more “feast or famine” type of contest, and far less predictable than the NBA. With that said, the DFS sites, and the successful players have to be using some kind of data/statistics to predict performance.

    I would love to see something like this for NHL, but I don’t know if I have the brain power to accurately do it… I would be curious to hear what some of the more seasoned NHL DFSers think would be comparable in predicting NHL performance. Any thoughts?

    I have been working on a few things this year. Most of it based around the War on Ice danger zone shot location numbers. I find Corsi to be flawed as it relates to DFS, teams CF% differential is pretty much meaningless in trying to predict the outcome of any one game.

    So i created wSF% (weighted shot for %) It basically just weights every shot for and against a player or team takes based on a three year shooting % from the zone it which it was shot from. There is still a lot of work to be done on it, but i like where its headed. I should have shot type (snap,wrist slap shot etc) and shot angle added to it sooner than later. Once its fully automated i will be able to use true player/team shooting % but for now league average is ok.

    It can really highlight some great information. Like today i knew that over the last 20 game the Sabres have played, 62.8% of all their PP shots on goal have been low danger. On the other hand Pitt has been giving up 59% of it’s PP shots against from low danger areas (i assume LD to be point shots most of the time on the PP). So it seemed logical to use Risto. The basis was sound but i picked the wrong guy….. But over all happy with the process.

  • Whynot138

    any guess on nyr lines? dfo has a change with fast and zuccarella trading spots. lwl has the standard.

    don’t see anything on twitter

  • goldengoat29

    Canes super sneaky tonight.

  • dude_abides7

    @Olhausen said...

    Didn’t they have massive overlay the other day along with draft Kings?

    Yep. And I (and many others here) predicted this is exactly how they would overreact. By chopping the contest in half. Granted, it is a 4 game Sunday slate, but I am sure $30K will be the standard again, along with another $10K or so on #2, #3 contests.

  • dailysportreport

    @pokerrob1970 said...

    I have been working on a few things this year. Most of it based around the War on Ice danger zone shot location numbers. I find Corsi to be flawed as it relates to DFS, teams CF% differential is pretty much meaningless in trying to predict the outcome of any one game.

    So i created wSF% (weighted shot for %) It basically just weights every shot for and against a player or team takes based on a three year shooting % from the zone it which it was shot from. There is still a lot of work to be done on it, but i like where its headed. I should have shot type (snap,wrist slap shot etc) and shot angle added to it sooner than later. Once its fully automated i will be able to use true player/team shooting % but for now league average is ok.

    It can really highlight some great information. Like today i knew that over the last 20 game the Sabres have played, 62.8% of all their PP shots on goal have been low danger. On the other hand Pitt has been giving up 59% of it’s PP shots against from low danger areas (i assume LD to be point shots most of the time on the PP). So it seemed logical to use Risto. The basis was sound but i picked the wrong guy….. But over all happy with the process.

    That’s pretty interesting! That definitely sounds like it could be viable, and I’m sure not many players are tracking that way themselves. If you could find an information source that provides the historical data, it should be fairly easy to automate. I’m interested to hear how it works out for you as you continue. Good luck, and thanks for the response!

  • epot

    anyone know if kane and panarin are playing today?

  • small1dawg

    @epot said...

    anyone know if kane and panarin are playing today?

    yea they are!

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