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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    8:00 PM :  Montreal ( 120 ) at  N.Y. Rangers ( -140 ) —- T: 120
    7:05 PM :  Pittsburgh ( -130 ) at  Carolina ( 110 ) —- T: -130
    7:05 PM :  Ottawa ( -110 ) at  New Jersey ( -110 ) —- T: -110
    7:35 PM :  N.Y. Islanders ( -110 ) at  Detroit ( -110 ) —- T: -110
    7:35 PM :  Winnipeg ( 125 ) at  Toronto ( -145 ) —- T: 125
    7:35 PM :  Edmonton ( 100 ) at  Tampa Bay ( -120 ) —- T: 100
    8:05 PM :  Calgary ( 135 ) at  Nashville ( -155 ) —- T: 135
    8:05 PM :  Chicago ( 120 ) at  Minnesota ( -140 ) —- T: 120
    9:05 PM :  Los Angeles ( -180 ) at  Colorado ( 160 ) —- T: -180

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NHL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NHL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. Please make it a point to say if you’re talking about Cash or GPP options.

  • Zieg30

    • 615

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    Fantastic slate, but too many solid options.

    Nashville, WPG/TOR, Pitt/CAR, NYI/DET. Throwing in some homer Ranger stacks, but don’t love them tonight.

  • yountingly

    • 349

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #33

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Yeah, I’m off today so definitely diving in, though unsure if I’ll have more than 1 bullet in that big $7 FD gpp.

    First couple of FD gpps lu consisted of Preds/Leafs and then Pens/Preds.

    I definitely think my Isles could be in play and not necessarily the JT line.

  • KindGuy

    Do I dare go back to the dry Carolina well? That offense has been atrocious.

  • maxeernst

    @elementasrat said...

    Do I dare go back to the dry Carolina well? That offense has been atrocious.

    Gotta move beyond a perception that scoring “actual goals” is an indicator of how the offense has been performing.

    The expected goals metrics all show Carolina as being a great offensive team of late. Just unlucky.

  • KindGuy

    @maxeernst said...

    Gotta move beyond a perception that scoring “actual goals” is an indicator of how the offense has been performing.

    The expected goals metrics all show Carolina as being a great offensive team of late. Just unlucky.

  • maxeernst

    This is a chart from the other daily showing expected goals according to DTM’s model. CAR was shut out 4-0 in this game, but as you can see the expected goals metrics had the game much closer.

    Goals are very lucky and random events in hockey. This game could have easily been way closer on the scoresheet.

  • PhoFever

    @Zieg30 said...

    Fantastic slate, but too many solid options.

    Nashville, WPG/TOR, Pitt/CAR, NYI/DET. Throwing in some homer Ranger stacks, but don’t love them tonight.

    My two biggest payouts in DFS ever were from homer stacks (Seahawks and Mariners). They were bad on-paper matchups where other people weren’t rostering them.

    Feel like Winnipeg might be fool’s gold tonight. But, gotta get Laine into a lineup anyway.

  • yountingly

    • 349

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #33

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @Seahawkto said...

    My two biggest payouts in DFS ever were from homer stacks (Seahawks and Mariners). They were bad on-paper matchups where other people weren’t rostering them.

    Feel like Winnipeg might be fool’s gold tonight. But, gotta get Laine into a lineup anyway.

    I would think more people will be on Toronto side of things. Just paired the Jets and NJ1 in my $7 entry. See what happens. Might change later.

    If Hoffman and Stone are out, which is unclear right now, Schneider might be anice choice at only 8.4 on FD. Still might be good if they play, though not as attractive then.

  • kdub

    Anyone know if there is high danger scoring chance data by team anywhere? I think I remember reading on here that xGF60 or SCF cant remember which one took HDSC into account

  • KindGuy

    @maxeernst said...

    This is a chart from the other daily showing expected goals according to DTM’s model. CAR was shut out 4-0 in this game, but as you can see the expected goals metrics had the game much closer.

    Goals are very lucky and random events in hockey. This game could have easily been way closer on the scoresheet.

    Thanks for the chart. I’m just now starting to learn about hockey sabermetrics. So is XG in hockey kinda like BABIP? I’m trying to make some sense of this data.

    At what point do teams start regressing towards their XG? 4 games? 10?

    And most importantly, is this data available anywhere like fangraphs? Puckalytics doesn’t have it.

  • maxeernst

    @kdub said...

    Anyone know if there is high danger scoring chance data by team anywhere? I think I remember reading on here that xGF60 or SCF cant remember which one took HDSC into account

    Corsica.Hockey has scoring chance data.

    They did away with the old War On Ice classification of “high danger” and integrated scoring chances and the xG model basically.

    On Corsica, scoring chances are defined as >0.09 xG.

  • maxeernst

    @elementasrat said...

    Thanks for the chart. I’m just now starting to learn about hockey sabermetrics. So is XG in hockey kinda like BABIP? I’m trying to make some sense of this data.

    At what point do teams start regressing towards their XG? 4 games? 10?

    And most importantly, is this data available anywhere like fangraphs? Puckalytics doesn’t have it.

    Corsica.Hockey is your friend.

    If you really want to learn more there are detailed posts on xG on the Corsica blog.

    Or you can pay 19.99 to get our DailyMarketplace package here on Rotogrinders where @JayWilly has a huge detailed article breaking down hockey analytics for DFS.

  • jimmyquinella

    • Blogger of the Month

    There are amazing tools on here for hockey DFS. (IMO)

    Very easy to understand for a sucker like me.

  • kellykip

    @maxeernst said...

    Or you can pay 19.99 to get our DailyMarketplace package here on Rotogrinders where @JayWilly has a huge detailed article breaking down hockey analytics for DFS

    I’d strongly recommend going this route for anyone who wants to step up their game. It’s worth way more than they are charging for it.

  • KindGuy

    @maxeernst said...

    Corsica.Hockey is your friend.

    If you really want to learn more there are detailed posts on xG on the Corsica blog.

    Or you can pay 19.99 to get our DailyMarketplace package here on Rotogrinders where @JayWilly has a huge detailed article breaking down hockey analytics for DFS.

    Holy crap that website is amazing!!! Thank you. Exactly what I was looking for.

    SOOOO many stats. Time to step up my puck game.

  • maxeernst

    Be sure and check out the Daily Fantasy Fix (in the podcast tab) where JayWilly and I broke down tonight’s slate.

  • kdub

    I really wish I could actually compete for the 50k top prize in the spin o rama on dk lol

    Also.. how high is the ownership on the Malkin,Horny line going to be?

  • TJF74

    With Jacob Trouba out due to suspension, Big Buff (Dustin Byfuglien) could see 30+ minutes of ice time and will eat tonight. He could put up a 30 burger on FD as the NBA guys say.

  • gaelicgirl

    A general question about playing time: If a certain line gets a lot of playing time one night, are they likely to get less playing time the next night? I had what I thought was a great FLA stack last night (the Line 1 PP 1 guys), and I picked them because they scored in the previous game, but it seemed like the Line 2 PP 2 guys got all the action. Still managed to make my entry fees back thanks to Trocheck, but it was frustrating to not see my guys on the ice much.

  • kdub

    @gaelicgirl said...

    A general question about playing time: If a certain line gets a lot of playing time one night, are they likely to get less playing time the next night? I had what I thought was a great FLA stack last night (the Line 1 PP 1 guys), and I picked them because they scored in the previous game, but it seemed like the Line 2 PP 2 guys got all the action. Still managed to make my entry fees back thanks to Trocheck, but it was frustrating to not see my guys on the ice much.

    I dont think so, although I didnt see the FLA game the Trocheck line might have been playing better that night or matched up better than the Barkov line

  • PigskinaBlanket

    • 852

      RG Overall Ranking

    • x2

      2016 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • x3

      2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    Lots of factors go into ice time. How much time is actually spent 5v5, Hoe or away determining last change- some games are more matchup dependent than others. If you look at Florida for example, they really have Lines 1 and 1a. It is not uncommon at all for the Trochek line to see more ice time that the Barkov line – not necessarily the case for other teams.

  • Njsum1

    From a strategy perspective is it a bad move to roster 6 skaters from the same team on DK. I’m thinking about doing a 3-2-1 combo of Frontline skaters. All skaters are on on the power play lines as well. Or is there just not enough points to go around? Thoughts would be appreciated.

  • KindGuy

    @kdub said...

    I dont think so, although I didnt see the FLA game the Trocheck line might have been playing better that night or matched up better than the Barkov line

    To be piggyback on GaelicGirl’s question, do certain coaches like to ride the hot hand in-game? If a 4th line is playing well while the 1st line is struggling, will coaches opt to ride the 4th line or do coaches usually stick to the usual rotation?

  • KindGuy

    @Njsum1 said...

    From a strategy perspective is it a bad move to roster 6 skaters from the same team on DK. I’m thinking about doing a 3-2-1 combo of Frontline skaters. All skaters are on on the power play lines as well. Or is there just not enough points to go around? Thoughts would be appreciated.

    A lot of the high rollers do this such as Saahil and BeepImaJeep. They max out the $4 GPPS and just stack every team with 6 guys. Pathetic really.

  • kdub

    @Njsum1 said...

    From a strategy perspective is it a bad move to roster 6 skaters from the same team on DK. I’m thinking about doing a 3-2-1 combo of Frontline skaters. All skaters are on on the power play lines as well. Or is there just not enough points to go around? Thoughts would be appreciated.

    Youll need a huge game from that team for it to be viable

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