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  • bhdevault

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  • joe2dwight

    • 765

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    • Ranked #38

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    I just started NHL this season and I’ve been having a lot of fun. Very different than NBA; much more like MLB where points, projections and stats seem to be a lot less relevant. More important is how you stack with very little concern for maximizing salary (like you would with NBA). I tend to go pretty chalk Goalie and only play defenders who are on the PP.

  • winnerchickendinner

    Thanks for all the help so far guys. So on the rotogrinders starting lines page would the first defensive pair be the one on the ice with the first line?

  • sizzlebeans

    @winnerchickendinner said...

    Thanks for all the help so far guys. So on the rotogrinders starting lines page would the first defensive pair be the one on the ice with the first line?

    Loosely, yes. But, keep in mind teams roll 4 forward line with 3 defense lines, so there is going to be overlap. I recommend looking at https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ or https://www.leftwinglock.com/line-combinations/ for more accurate lines and for power play correlations with defenders. And, this site has a good tool for actually seeing which defenders skate with which lines on each shift, and there is even a line-mate matrix tab to see the shading for how heavy they are with certain line http://shiftchart.com/

  • windsorpg

    @joe2dwight said...

    I just started NHL this season and I’ve been having a lot of fun. Very different than NBA; much more like MLB where points, projections and stats seem to be a lot less relevant. More important is how you stack with very little concern for maximizing salary (like you would with NBA). I tend to go pretty chalk Goalie and only play defenders who are on the PP.

    New and not sure which defenders are on the ice during a powerr play. Any where I could obtain that info here?

    I usually just play the defenders that take the most shots lol. Been working so far haha

  • bartow33

    @joe2dwight said...

    I just started NHL this season and I’ve been having a lot of fun. Very different than NBA; much more like MLB where points, projections and stats seem to be a lot less relevant. More important is how you stack with very little concern for maximizing salary (like you would with NBA). I tend to go pretty chalk Goalie and only play defenders who are on the PP.

    I can 100% see how NHL can be a lot like MLB in terms of points, with such a heavy emphasis on Goals and Assist in nhl like it is to Home runs in baseball… With NBA you have assists, shots, blks etc all within a few points of each other, same with NFL where a couple 20 yd runs or catches over a couple series can equal a touch down… with NHL and Baseball the amount of points you get for the offensive events is just so drastic.

    so you are basically saying, you tend to choose the best goalie on the slate, then you don’t worry about using all your salary? and just pick your lines you like for the evening? when you generate your lineups do you use rotogrinders? and do you set a salary range in the settings?

    what stats and research do you tend to use when deciding lines? straight production? shots on goal? opposing line quality?

  • bartow33

    @windsorpg said...

    New and not sure which defenders are on the ice during a powerr play. Any where I could obtain that info here?

    I usually just play the defenders that take the most shots lol. Been working so far haha

    you can use leftwinglock.com or even dailyfaceoff.com I prefer leftwinglock

  • PhoFever

    @bartow33 said...

    This would be awesome to know actually… I have played DFS for about 3 years as well, and by no means am an “Expert” but have taken a few very nice first place wins in MLB NBA and NFL… But EVERY TIME i play hockey I lose my A#$ and i guess from a personal perspective want to understand it/possible be more efficient at it. It literally drives me nuts how bad i do sometimes haha… even with the statistical checks i have done. So as i have been doing todays research as refenced earlier, Just wonder if anyone else in this thread has a deeper and better look or notice where i may be missing in my research “stats wise”

    I’m pretty lazy with deeper stat analysis, so I may not be the best person to answer this question. But, I will tell you that I’ve had pretty steady success in NHL (i.e., incrementally building bankroll through cash games and wins in smaller tourneys) by staying consistent with certain “procedural” norms. You’ve probably heard them already, but just in case:

    -Using Vegas odds to guide my goalie choice, favoring home ice goalies over road goalies when there is a toss-up (similar to how I pick pitchers in MLB)

    -For cash games, picking high shot volume skaters and defenseman on PP who block lots of shots

    -Picking guys on point streaks. This is one thing I particularly love about DFS hockey: when a talented player gets going, they really get going, and often you can ride their streaks for a while. Not sure why this is, but it kinda reminds me of hitters in baseball; the goals/assists come in droves like hits and RBIs. Completely opposite of NBA and NFL, where game flow, fouls and coaching decisions can halt a player’s momentum like Wile E. Coyote running into a pop-up roadblock.

    -NHL team defensive/offensive stats: simply taking daily a look at where a team stands in the big picture of overall offensive production and defensive weaknesses (especially PP and PK) can help you solve tough lineup decisions

    -Picking road L2’s in favorable matchups (i.e. taking advantage of the last change rule)

    -Homerism: make sure to reserve one GPP to stack your favorite team every time they play. Eventually, you’ll have them on a night when no one else is using them and turn a nice profit.

    Like I said, I’m nowhere near the high-stakes, accomplished player that some others on this forum are, but sticking to these procedures has been good to me over the long haul.

  • joe2dwight

    • 765

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    • Ranked #38

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    Right, so you’re really just maximizing positive correlations. So I scrape NHL.com for stats and make my own projections. I try not to get too fancy then I’ve written a tool that optimizes lineups based on parameters I provide. The only salary constraint I provide is that I stay under the limit. For goalie, I usually go pretty overweight on a guy who’s expected to do well (according to Vegas). Funny thing is, some of my best wins have been with a goalie getting negative points. That’s another oddity about NHL, you can drop a 0 with a guy and still cash. That is very difficult with NBA.

    One important thing about how I play, I optimize for 20 lineups and I’m a terrible cash game player. So you’ll find me max entered on the DK Sniper (or Forecheck) every night.

  • joe2dwight

    • 765

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    • Ranked #38

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    Yeah, so that is definitely the right way to do it (IMO). Pay up for offensive minded defensive players who are on PP1 (Burns, Karlsson, etc).

  • bartow33

    @joe2dwight said...

    Right, so you’re really just maximizing positive correlations. So I scrape NHL.com for stats and make my own projections. I try not to get too fancy then I’ve written a tool that optimizes lineups based on parameters I provide. The only salary constraint I provide is that I stay under the limit. For goalie, I usually go pretty overweight on a guy who’s expected to do well (according to Vegas). Funny thing is, some of my best wins have been with a goalie getting negative points. That’s another oddity about NHL, you can drop a 0 with a guy and still cash. That is very difficult with NBA.

    One important thing about how I play, I optimize for 20 lineups and I’m a terrible cash game player. So you’ll find me max entered on the DK Sniper (or Forecheck) every night.

    This is all very helpful thank you! I see you snatched a 1st place in that forecheck last week ;)

  • joe2dwight

    • 765

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    • Ranked #38

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    @bartow33 said...

    This is all very helpful thank you! I see you snatched a 1st place in that forecheck last week ;)

    Ha thanks. Dougie Hamilton my new favorite player.

  • zigger77

    • Ranked #19

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @joe2dwight said...

    Ha thanks. Dougie Hamilton my new favorite player.

    Do you know what he looks like?

  • zigger77

    • Ranked #19

      RG Tiered Ranking

    So for the guys who play NHL all year long how much weight do you put into recent play? For example Chi has 1 win 8 losses and 1 OT loss in their last 10 games. I know OTT is a good matchup for chi but wouldnt OTT be a better team to use? OTT has scored 32 goals the last 10 while chi has scored 22. Both teams allowed 36 the last 10 games. Am I kinda on the right track?

  • hautalak

    @zigger77 said...

    So for the guys who play NHL all year long how much weight do you put into recent play? For example Chi has 1 win 8 losses and 1 OT loss in their last 10 games. I know OTT is a good matchup for chi but wouldnt OTT be a better team to use? OTT has scored 32 goals the last 10 while chi has scored 22. Both teams allowed 36 the last 10 games. Am I kinda on the right track?

    I’d consider that one a pick em lol With that being said I’m hoping I get CHI low owned.

  • hautalak

    @Felixxberg said...

    Chicago and Dallas went through the blender again! I can’t believe they still don’t put Kane and DeBrincat on the same line. They crushed during preseason!

    Wait Jurco is on L2?! He shouldn’t even be in the NHL. Everybody avoid him. Don’t believe me look at his career stats (NHL only). Not a NHL talent. Now what to do with CHI? I think I’ll roll Kane, Toews, and Saad.

  • zigger77

    • Ranked #19

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @hautalak said...

    I’d consider that one a pick em lol With that being said I’m hoping I get CHI low owned.

    I reason I asked is that Chi is projected for 3.35 goals and are -160 favorites and are 1-9 in their last 10 games. What am I missing? I know condon is starting and hes been bad but why does vegas love chi so much?

  • hautalak

    @zigger77 said...

    What am I missing? I know condon is starting and hes been bad but why does vegas love chi so much?

    You’re not missing anything tbh. They’ve been just awful like you’ve said. At this point it’s just a reputation/brand name and peole thinking they can’t be that bad. I’ve just been playing them waiting for them to turn around and haven’t so I’m gonna keep riding it.

  • Zieg30

    Don’t even know what to do with the new CHI 2 and DAL 1/2. I may leave CHI 2 as is and assume there will still be PP correlation with Schmaltz. (edit: going to change CHI 2 to the new line on DK and add a new entry on FD with Schmaltz perhaps. EDIT x2: cant do this either given the positional issues).

    DAL 2 I don’t mind, but that DAL is nearly unusable.

  • hautalak

    @Zieg30 said...

    Don’t even know what to do with the new CHI 2 and DAL 1/2. I may leave CHI 2 as is and assume there will still be PP correlation with Schmaltz.

    DAL 2 I don’t mind, but that DAL is nearly unusable.

    You know but gotta PSA how bad Jurco is. I can’t believe they’re letting him play on L2.

  • jayzee666

    @Seahawktom said...

    I’m pretty lazy with deeper stat analysis, so I may not be the best person to answer this question. But, I will tell you that I’ve had pretty steady success in NHL (i.e., incrementally building bankroll through cash games and wins in smaller tourneys) by staying consistent with certain “procedural” norms. You’ve probably heard them already, but just in case:

    -Using Vegas odds to guide my goalie choice, favoring home ice goalies over road goalies when there is a toss-up (similar to how I pick pitchers in MLB)

    -For cash games, picking high shot volume skaters and defenseman on PP who block lots of shots

    -Picking guys on point streaks. This is one thing I particularly love about DFS hockey: when a talented player gets going, they really get going, and often you can ride their streaks for a while. Not sure why this is, but it kinda reminds me of hitters in baseball; the goals/assists come in droves like hits and RBIs. Completely opposite of NBA and NFL, where game flow, fouls and coaching decisions can halt a player’s momentum like Wile E. Coyote running into a pop-up roadblock.

    -NHL team defensive/offensive stats: simply taking daily a look at where a team stands in the big picture of overall offensive production and defensive weaknesses (especially PP and PK) can help you solve tough lineup decisions

    -Picking road L2’s in favorable matchups (i.e. taking advantage of the last change rule)

    -Homerism: make sure to reserve one GPP to stack your favorite team every time they play. Eventually, you’ll have them on a night when no one else is using them and turn a nice profit.

    Like I said, I’m nowhere near the high-stakes, accomplished player that some others on this forum are, but sticking to these procedures has been good to me over the long haul.

    Just the opposite for me unfortunately. Regardless of sport, I pick the stud on a hot streak in a good matchup…..BAM! worst game of their career and then a crippling cold streak. I do appreciate the power I wield though – need to find how to make money on it though!

  • Njsum1

    Anyone know why Brad Hunt doesn’t show up on RGs lineups page in any defensive pairings?

  • sizzlebeans

    Got the spidey senses going on for Seguin tonight, but every time I use him he completely shits the bed. With those linemates, he’s going to shoot a ton…yet DAL doesn’t seem to get many shots off. Quite the conundrum.

  • Benf15harp

    @sizzlebeans said...

    Got the spidey senses going on for Seguin tonight, but every time I use him he completely shits the bed. With those linemates, he’s going to shoot a ton…yet DAL doesn’t seem to get many shots off. Quite the conundrum.

    All in on sequin with a massive Blackhawk stack

  • hautalak

    Hoping for another CHI stomping of OTT. Parts of most of the first 2 lines besides JURCO and add DeBrincat.

  • bartow33

    @Seahawktom said...

    -Using Vegas odds to guide my goalie choice, favoring home ice goalies over road goalies when there is a toss-up (similar to how I pick pitchers in MLB)

    Have you ever tried a deep stat look goalie wise? its probably the one thing i have been able to relate to for NHL…. This may be long and I hope it makes sense but here is what I do. I have found it to be very successful in picking my goalie. I will probably tie in your vegas odd home vs away with it as well.

    First and fore most i copy and past nhl.com stats into an excel… This year it sucks horribly because when you past it into excel it just puts it all down the first column, so i have to do a copy and transpose to get the data linear for each team. but once i have all the data laid out i determine Shots on goal per goal scored per game and shots on goal allowed per goal allowed per game.

    Shots allowed per goal per game: Shots allowed per game divided by goals allowed per game. this will give you the average amount of shots a team allows before it allows 1 goal. In terms of goalie is concerned the Higher the better. We wants shots on goal with no goals.

    Shots per goal scored per game: Shots per game divided by goals per game. This will give you the average amount of shots a team gets on goal for every 1 goal they score per game. Again the higher the better here in terms of a goalie as we want shots on goal for goalie pts.

    I will then total the 2 columns for an “easier” look at the stats. The “higher” the total the better.

    I then also use the goals per game to goals allowed per game. I have a column that grabs the stats via a VLOOKUP to pull in these 2. I will also total them in order for a “easier” view at the possible total goals of the game.

    The last thing i do is Subtract the total goals scored to goals allowed per game from the total shots allowed per goal per game and Shots per goal per game. This is also just another column i use in order to determine a quick view across all goalies.

    Example: lets use the minnesota wild(GO WILD) vs TB lighting…all these stats are just made up
    MIN Shots allowed per game 20, TB shots per game 30
    MIN Goals allowed per game 2, TB goals per game 3

    Shots allowed per goals allowed per game for MN: 20/2 = 10 shots allowed per goal allowed per game
    Shot per goal per game TB: 30/3 = 10 shots per goal scored per game
    Total of the 2 = 20

    I would then do this for all goalies in the slate and compare the stats, and the goalies with the highest shots totals compared to the lowest goals total is who i take into consideration, along with a few other factors such as the value in terms of salary to projected points.

    I really hope this made sense…. haha sorry if it doesnt. Basically just going after those SOGs for goalie points

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