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  • bhdevault

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  • Benn91

    Some news on Tkachuk(DTD)?

  • kdub

    So is the consensus STL/ANA over BOS?

  • mathewsmarner

    i’m confused with fowler/eaves or pietrangelo/schwartz or peitrangelo/fowler with my remaining salary

  • dyavid

    @kdub said...

    So is the consensus STL/ANA over BOS?

    i think BOS/CGY will be higher scoring than stl/ana. Both teams are playing their backups

  • mathewsmarner

    bold statement i’m making here but jimmy howard gets pulled

  • sizzlebeans

    @maxeernst said...

    One could say STL is a candidate for the best spot of the night.

    You’re a corsica guy. Take a look at the xGA numbers for ANA of late.

    Since Feb 1, this is what I see for ANA. No one on the slate is higher for the first two, or those three combined.

    GF60 2.93
    xGF60 3.45
    Vegas 2.65

    They’re also highest on the slate for CF60, SF60, SCF60, and STL is highest on the slate for CA60 and SA60

    You’ve also got Bernier coming off a hell of a week. I’m not so sure about STL as being in the best spot, but I will have some exposure.

    EDIT: The Vegas line is now up to 2.73 for them, so the betting public seems to like them as well.

  • maxeernst

    @sizzlebeans said...

    Since Feb 1, this is what I see for ANA. No one on the slate is higher for the first two, or those three combined.

    GF60 2.93
    xGF60 3.45
    Vegas 2.65

    They’re also highest on the slate for CF60, SF60, SCF60, and STL is highest on the slate for CA60 and SA60

    You’ve also got Bernier coming off a hell of a week. I’m not so sure about STL as being in the best spot, but I will have some exposure.

    EDIT: The Vegas line is now up to 2.73 for them, so the betting public seems to like them as well.

    Not sure how you are adjusting, because STL certainly doesn’t have the highest CA/60 on the slate nor does ANA have the highest CF/60. Also, of course PIT has the highest xGF/60.

    … May need to check your adjustments or date range?

    Also, since feb 1 (all situations, score and venue adjusted):

    STL 5th-best xGA/60 (2.42)

    also,

    ANA 6th-highest xGA/60 (3.02)

  • sizzlebeans

    I only adjust for home/road splits and leave everything else the way it is

    This is what I got:
    http://imgur.com/a/kBscx

    EDIT: Here’s my spreadsheet for the slate based on Feb 1, all situations, only adjustment is for home/road teams

    http://imgur.com/a/hte4d

  • maxeernst

    @sizzlebeans said...

    I only adjust for home/road splits and leave everything else the way it is

    This is what I got:
    http://imgur.com/a/kBscx

    Ah. The numbers you cited make more sense then.

    I think using the score and venue adjustment is probably much more helpful then separating the splits yourself. You’re ending up with pretty small samples otherwise and may want to expand your date range.

    But even still, under your splits / lack of adjustments, ANA has the highest xGA/60 (on home ice) in the entire league over that (small 7 game) sample.

  • maxeernst

    The score and venue adjustment basically neutralizes the impact of home-ice advantage and score effects.

    Can read more about it here: http://www.corsica.hockey/blog/2016/06/19/adjustments-explained/

  • sizzlebeans

    @maxeernst said...

    Ah. The numbers you cited make more sense then.

    I think using the score and venue adjustment is probably much more helpful then separating the splits yourself. You’re ending up with pretty small samples otherwise and may want to expand your date range.

    But even still, under your splits / lack of adjustments, ANA has the highest xGA/60 (on home ice) in the entire league over that (small 7 game) sample.

    Ok cool. I’ll try that. I usually do a larger date range, 2 or 3 months. The last few slates I’ve been trying to capture more recent data as games become more meaningful and the cream is having to rise to the top.

  • kdub

    Will the 3M line be able to shut down BOS1? Hopefully Tkachuk doesnt play

  • mathewsmarner

    my 3 lineups categorized by team

    malkin bonino guentzel sheary murray
    brodie frolik
    parayko pietrangelo bowmeester edmundson tarasenko statsny
    nyquist mantha howard
    getzlaf rakell
    bergeron pastrnak stafford

    done for the day, now ti’ll puck drop

  • pepsi7

    • 2013 FanDuel WFBC Champion

    • x3

      2012 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    @maxeernst said...

    COL and upside in the same sentence!? That’s when you know you’ve got an interesting slate.

    perhaps limited, but a multi-goal game not out of the question for Kog/Duchene

  • AClavel

    Hey whats up guys, im kinda new on this forum, I had a question concerning lineups. How many lineups is it best to create every night. Does any of you grinders make 1 lineup only sometimes or is it always best to make multiple. Thanks.

  • kellykip

    @sizzlebeans said...

    Ok cool. I’ll try that. I usually do a larger date range, 2 or 3 months. The last few slates I’ve been trying to capture more recent data as games become more meaningful and the cream is having to rise to the top.

    The thing you have to watch out for re: games played sample sizes is that it disproportionally weighs things that are not true measures of future expected performance. Strength of short term schedule, multiple b2b’s, injuries, fluke early plays on the ice which change game flow in a non-representative way, and on and on and on.

  • mathewsmarner

    for some reason i find myself stacked with 4 stl defencemen on the night
    paryako, edmundson, pietrangelo bowmeester
    it just might be the game script: tarasenko scores statsny assists and st.louis protects the one goal lead ferociously and i earn most of my points through blocked shots, and in the end st.louis gets closer to making the playoffs

  • Benn91

    Anyone taking a risk with Tkachuk?

  • TurkishDelight

    Please somebody talk me out of Pickard on DK as my goalie in cash games

  • bstreich9

    @TurkishDelight said...

    Please somebody talk me out of Pickard on DK as my goalie in cash games

    I can’t do that lol. I like him too, to an extent.

  • keephustlincuz

    @mathewsmarner said...

    for some reason i find myself stacked with 4 stl defencemen on the night
    paryako, edmundson, pietrangelo bowmeester
    it just might be the game script: tarasenko scores statsny assists and st.louis protects the one goal lead ferociously and i earn most of my points through blocked shots, and in the end st.louis gets closer to making the playoffs

    Can you let your brother use the computer for a couple minutes? I need his humidity report.

  • AClavel

    talk me out of Howard please

  • sizzlebeans

    @mathewsmarner said...

    in the end st.louis gets closer to making the playoffs

    They pretty already have. LA probably won’t catch them now. STL still has 3 games each vs ARI and COL. They’re almost locked in now.

  • NYGfan1983

    so Ferland gona soak up more mins ?

    and Versteeg

  • Benn91

    @keephustlincuz said...

    Can you let your brother use the computer for a couple minutes? I need his humidity report.

    I only see SJ & CHI in the west.

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