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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

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  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @Krausehouse said...

    Good luck out there, can someone I know (virtually) win something big in the next few days so I can at least justify what I’m still doing playing? Thx.

    I’ll win tomorrow’s $360 just to help you.

  • zovyn

    Note: Toffoli has ~170 FD pts in 5 games against VAN this season. How long does the ‘revenge’ factor keep fueling these ridiculously unsustainable numbers? He’s near the top of every opti I’ve looked at (which isn’t many, granted) and I’m having a hard time not playing him, right? He’s averaging ~15ppg over the last 10… But he’s priced $6.6k on FD – how often do you see a L3 W priced that high?

    Damn it. Overthinking the slate already.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @jjwd said...

    No offense but this is totally nuts, and not supported by math or data. If you want a better gage of what’s happening, look at the 333. “Terrible” players aren’t max entering that contest every night.

    I haven’t played it in a week, but when I did play it, I saw many slates where bkreider, Testo, Slewfoot, etc. would get blanked even with 8 entries. Each one of them will win some day, but they’re not immune to losing $2.664K on a random Monday night! And that doesn’t include the Twine and other contests.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    If someone could get the date and calculate, it would be awesome. I just don’t have enough time to do it. I remember someone doing it in a PGA milly maker, and we saw that only one max entrant made money.

  • Krausehouse

    • 2020 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @Felixxberg said...

    I’ll win tomorrow’s $360 just to help you.

    I would very much like that. Thanks

  • cplatt87

    I will keep playing Rickard Rakell as DK refuses to bump his price up, and he’s been smashing for the last week or so. Tarasenko also likely a lock for me until his price is adjusted properly.

    With those 2 guys, you can easily fit in McDavid/Draisaitl and still have a reasonable lineup. You can also go more balanced and play more of the 5-6k guys that might go overlooked with everyone trying to jam in the 2 Oilers studs. Interesting slate tonight with lots of angles you can go

  • qatman

    The beatings will continue until morale improves. Cash game thoughts:

    G: Several good options tonight between Fleury, Petersen, Kuemper, Grubauer, etc. I think I like Kuemper tonight but Petersen also looks good for 400 ore.

    W: Tarasenko 4200 ldo. I will continue to roll Pacioretty until he cools down – 48 shots in last 10 so he is getting pucks on net. A bunch of cheap options on L1/L2 as usual, especially in the 4000-4600 range. I want to play Reilly Smith but he disappoints more than Fyre Fest.

    C: Obviously McDavid and Draisatl are top options and both eminently playable. Think McD is worth the extra 1200 if you deciding between them as he shoots over 30% more, so more opportunities for bonus & goals. Other names that caught my eye are Horvat, Getzlaf, Sanford, Bjugstad.

    D: I keep playing Spurgeon as he gets decent shots and BS and is on PP1. Eventually the points should come – goalless on the year which can’t continue. I had been playing EK65 but even at 4200 I think I will hold off a bit as he just isn’t performing. The EDM guys look good, especially Barrie 6000 if you think EDM will crush. For VGK Pietrangelo is questionable which may leave more PP time for e.g. Martinez. Shattenkirk 3200 is cheap also.

    Good luck friends.

  • jayzee666

    @zovyn said...

    My lu finishes ahead of The Time Traveler lus frequently. It just never places nearly as high as his do when I don’t have a good lu. I couldn’t imagine having the kind of bankroll, life, and job that would enable me to be like him or any of the other top-level DFS pros.

    EDIT: Just ftr, I’m agreeing that bkreider is much better at this than me.

    My question is, do these guys have the bankroll when they start or do they win a few big tournaments and the rest is playing with house money. Of course they also create their own optimizers and enter tons of LUs.

  • marker0357

    @zovyn said...

    It’s WAAAAAY better than Covid-NBA, I promise. I’m curious to see how Covid-MLB turns out starting in a few weeks. I’ve got 33 tickets (and counting) to the MLB opener slate on F/D. Looks like a really big slate, too. I’ll need to take that day off work.

    way better than COVID NBA, hell, it’s better than regular NBA. The NBA product is garbage. Sorry if I offend anyone on this forum but it just is…only becoming watchable during the playoffs.

  • Boooooourns

    • 2016 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    The second 100 dollar single entry has a better structure. Too bad I’m stuck in the first one.

  • madmanjayWV

    So for DK GPP, is there a “best” strategy for the UTL spot?

    i.e. — Use two goalies perhaps? I’m guessing no?

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @madmanjayWV said...

    So for DK GPP, is there a “best” strategy for the UTL spot?

    i.e. — Use two goalies perhaps? I’m guessing no?

    You can’t use two goalies, unless you’re talking about SD.

    Taking a third D makes you different. Forwards usually have better upside but a lower floor.

  • SkateFiend

    Is the hockey community not all that interested in snake draft contests? DK doesn’t offer them, and FD only offer contests with short roster.

    Drafters have deep and super deep roster contests but more often than not the contests don’t fill.

  • SA16

    @jjwd said...

    No offense but this is totally nuts, and not supported by math or data. If you want a better gage of what’s happening, look at the 333. “Terrible” players aren’t max entering that contest every night.

    I have played nearly every day for almost 7 years and play the 333 every night lol I know who the opponents are.

  • Zieg30

    • 758

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    @Felixxberg said...

    If someone could get the date and calculate, it would be awesome. I just don’t have enough time to do it. I remember someone doing it in a PGA milly maker, and we saw that only one max entrant made money.

    Someone also calculated the profit/loss of max-enterers in one MLB season a couple years ago, and found that so many were just losing tons of money.

  • Zieg30

    • 758

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    @qatman said...

    The beatings will continue until morale improves. Cash game thoughts:

    G: Several good options tonight between Fleury, Petersen, Kuemper, Grubauer, etc. I think I like Kuemper tonight but Petersen also looks good for 400 ore.

    W: Tarasenko 4200 ldo. I will continue to roll Pacioretty until he cools down – 48 shots in last 10 so he is getting pucks on net. A bunch of cheap options on L1/L2 as usual, especially in the 4000-4600 range. I want to play Reilly Smith but he disappoints more than Fyre Fest.

    C: Obviously McDavid and Draisatl are top options and both eminently playable. Think McD is worth the extra 1200 if you deciding between them as he shoots over 30% more, so more opportunities for bonus & goals. Other names that caught my eye are Horvat, Getzlaf, Sanford, Bjugstad.

    D: I keep playing Spurgeon as he gets decent shots and BS and is on PP1. Eventually the points should come – goalless on the year which can’t continue. I had been playing EK65 but even at 4200 I think I will hold off a bit as he just isn’t performing. The EDM guys look good, especially Barrie 6000 if you think EDM will crush. For VGK Pietrangelo is questionable which may leave more PP time for e.g. Martinez. Shattenkirk 3200 is cheap also.

    Good luck friends.

    Solid picks!

    I’m not with you on Sanford or Bjugstad, but the rest I can see merit in!

  • the_shashi

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @Zieg30 said...

    Yeah, the mass arrival of NBA forum-goers just didn’t happen this season. I wondered about that, but I guess more folks just used this as a legit break this year.

    I haven’t seen much overlay around. I think most of the larger big contests have filled, and the regular $10 maybe is still open closer to lock than normal, but I think it fills, or gets close enough that it doesn’t matter.

    ppl are running out of $$$. feeding sharks like volkster!

    perhaps ir is the beginning of the end…

  • ifthethunder

    @Felixxberg said...

    Taking a third D makes you different. Forwards usually have better upside but a lower floor.

    If you only have around 4,000 or less for utility, I like to go D man. With the bonus for 3 blocked shots, it’s just more reliable. But less likely to take down a GPP, I admit.
    ~

  • SkateFiend

    @zovyn said...

    It’s WAAAAAY better than Covid-NBA, I promise. I’m curious to see how Covid-MLB turns out starting in a few weeks. I’ve got 33 tickets (and counting) to the MLB opener slate on F/D. Looks like a really big slate, too. I’ll need to take that day off work.

    MLB (much like NBA) recently went through a dramatic shift in philosophy. The game now places more emphasis on launching the ball. Lots of players will strike out and fail to put the ball in play. Starting pitchers are increasingly used as openers or seen as someone who merely starts the game. Managers are itching to play matchup and introduce new pitchers early.

    I tried the usual stacking route last season and got wiped out early. The bust outnumbers the boom now since stacked players are more likely to go 0 for 4. And pitchers don’t last long enough.

    I’m starting to think DFS is best suited for sports that aren’t turn based, like hockey. If you have players from teams that control the puck and monopolize on scoring chances, your lineup will have some edge. In basketball certain players are guaranteed to have all the usage and shots. Defense and matchup rarely matters in the NBA.

  • Stangs13

    Having a hard time not entering the twine. Looks like it might overlay and that’s a big prize for the $10.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @qatman said...

    I want to play Reilly Smith but he disappoints more than Fyre Fest.

    Wow I just noticed that one!

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @Stangs13 said...

    Having a hard time not entering the twine. Looks like it might overlay and that’s a big prize for the $10.

    I had my near best overall prize ever in that exact contest two years ago, finishing 3rd for $10K. But the twist is I had 147 lineups. They separated COL1, and I decided to play all 3 lines. I also replaced Tyler Bertuzzi by Patrick Kane in every DET1 lineup. Larkin-Mantha had like 4 points each while Bertuzzi had 0. Kane had two goals. Held on for $50K pretty much all night until a random Cam Fowler goal put two guys ahead of me. That’s the kind of night I remember like it was yesterday. I was in a bar with friends. Pretty sure it was on a Wednesday.

    All of that to say: go for it, why not. But don’t expect anything out of 1 lineup!

  • thedkexperience

    @hautalak said...

    Maybe the NBA guys know COVID hockey sucks… I only say this because I’m so sick of the same teams playing each other ad nauseum!!! All I hear is how great it is to watch the Canadian division but get out of here with that stuff!!! So what you have Matthews and McDavid but are still stuck watching the Sens, Canucks, and Canadiens (not a bad team but in disarray right now) every night. Sure we have the Wings, Preds, Jackets, and Sabres but we also aren’t trying to “hype up” every game.

    Kind of hate how the league is split this year. And for as how much hockey as is being played I’m able to watch very little (NBCSN, occasional FS Midwest Blues games, and every once in a while CHI). Just had to get a little rant about 2021 NHL season!

    I’ve been playing hockey for like 3 weeks now and only noticed that there was an all Canadian division like an hour ago.

    I did one of those “damn I feel like Edmonton and Ottawaaaait a minute …”

  • thedkexperience

    For anyone having DFS burnout may I suggest joining us on a Saturday evening in the UFC forum?

    UFC DFS is the greatest DFS of all DFS sports. Spread the word.

  • ifthethunder

    Right now, Calvin Petersen is my goalie. I don’t MME, in fact in NHL I’m usually 2 or maybe 3 lineups. Having a tough time clicking on someone else, but it would make sense for me to pick another one.
    ~

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