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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    8:08 PM : 41 Vegas ( -120 ) at 42 Minnesota ( 100 ) —- T: 5½o-15
    9:08 PM : 43 Ottawa ( 195 ) at 44 Edmonton ( -245 ) —- T: 6½u-10
    9:08 PM : 45 Arizona ( 165 ) at 46 Colorado ( -185 ) —- T: 5½u-15
    10:08 PM : 47 Montreal ( -150 ) at 48 Vancouver ( 130 ) —- T: 6o-25
    10:08 PM : 49 Los Angeles ( -115 ) at 50 Anaheim ( -105 ) —- T: 5½u-35
    9:08 PM : 79 St. Louis ( -160 ) at 80 San Jose ( 140 ) —- T: 6o-15

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NHL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s NHL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • axman15

    @ifthethunder said...

    Right now, Calvin Petersen is my goalie. I don’t MME, in fact in NHL I’m usually 2 or maybe 3 lineups. Having a tough time clicking on someone else, but it would make sense for me to pick another one.
    ~

    Big on Petersen tonight. Also going to have some Thatcher Demko after watching him shut down my Leafs in two straight. He was the difference in both games IMO

  • ifthethunder

    @axman15 said...

    Big on Petersen tonight. Also going to have some Thatcher Demko after watching him shut down my Leafs in two straight. He was the difference in both games IMO

    Thank you! I just needed another one. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket, right?
    ~

  • thedkexperience

    @SkateFiend said...

    MLB (much like NBA) recently went through a dramatic shift in philosophy. The game now places more emphasis on launching the ball. Lots of players will strike out and fail to put the ball in play. Starting pitchers are increasingly used as openers or seen as someone who merely starts the game. Managers are itching to play matchup and introduce new pitchers early.

    I tried the usual stacking route last season and got wiped out early. The bust outnumbers the boom now since stacked players are more likely to go 0 for 4. And pitchers don’t last long enough.

    I’m starting to think DFS is best suited for sports that aren’t turn based, like hockey. If you have players from teams that control the puck and monopolize on scoring chances, your lineup will have some edge. In basketball certain players are guaranteed to have all the usage and shots. Defense and matchup rarely matters in the NBA.

    I only play NHL because I firmly believe the lineup building process is the same. Get your pitcher or goalie right no matter the cost, and then hunt for homeruns and goals.

    I hunt for KOs and Ws in UFC. Some of these games are actually very basic and we make them into quantum mechanics.

    I’m sure that’s my problem with NBA which is still the biggest hole in my game. If there was an 8 point shot in the NBA I’d be way better because I’d just spam that.

  • jjwd

    @SkateFiend said...

    I tried the usual stacking route last season and got wiped out early. The bust outnumbers the boom now since stacked players are more likely to go 0 for 4. And pitchers don’t last long enough.

    I’m starting to think DFS is best suited for sports that aren’t turn based, like hockey.

    And yet, this circles back to the old theory (espoused by Bales and others) that tournaments will always be beatable long term if you are using game theory correctly. This means going against the herd, smartly, as long as you understand what the herd is doing. If the herd stops stacking, stacking will become profitable again. The concept applies to most every sport except NBA.

  • SkateFiend

    @jjwd said...

    And yet, this circles back to the old theory (espoused by Bales and others) that tournaments will always be beatable long term if you are using game theory correctly. This means going against the herd, smartly, as long as you understand what the herd is doing. If the herd stops stacking, stacking will become profitable again. The concept applies to most every sport except NBA.

    Yeah I hate that stacking doesn’t work in nba. It’s a very selfish game for dfs purposes. On some nights you have to pay up for jokic at C because 90% of the other options share crapshoot. I rarely feel the need to play top talent Austin Mathews in a nhl contest. If I did it’s part of tor stack or I found other options to fill out the rest of the lineup.

  • qatman

    I hate DFS altogether to be honest. I used to bet sports profitably back before Black Friday, and it is much much easier for me to find value on sides than dealing with the vagaries of individual players – not to mention the vastly lower rake. Unfortunately California is not likely to get sports betting any time soon and due to security issues/background checks I am not willing to risk offshores. Someday, someday. It would be so bloody simple for them to just legalize an exchange and take X% of each transaction – no risk for them. But the Native American casinos are blocking all attempts.

  • qatman

    Bjugstad L1 tonight…

    RussoHockey’s avatar
    Michael Russo
    @RussoHockey
    #mnwild lines

    Kaprizov-Bjugstad-Zuccarello
    Greenway-Eriksson Ek-Foligno
    Parise-Rask-Fiala
    Sturm-Bonino-Rau

    Suter-Spurgeon
    Brodin-Dumba
    Cole-Soucy

    Kahkonen

  • choppadown

    Mark Stone and Alex Pietrangelo OUT tonight

    https://twitter.com/VinceSapienza/status/1369084136124678149

    Who’s slotting into VGK1? Tuch or Smith?

  • ryanprzy

    This is a fun slate. Lots of good plays. Recent history suggests that MON is gonna pound VAN with shots (what else is new?) so Thatcher Demko might be in for a heck of a night. I also love the seemingly overpriced Alexander Edler for that reason.

    Or you could mix and match any of the top nine MON forwards for a nice GPP stack. Lots of potential.

    Nick Bjugstad is a nice EV+ play if he’s really centering that top line with Kevin Fiala and Zach Parise.

    EDIT: As qatman mentioned, looks like Bjugstad has Kaprizov and Zuccarello for his linemates on MIN1.

  • choppadown

    https://twitter.com/JesseGranger_/status/1369087035697328131

    Golden Knights lineup:

    Pacioretty—Stephenso—Tuch
    Marchessault—Karlsson—Smith
    Roy—Glass—Kolesar
    Carrier—Nosek—Reaves

    Martinez—Theodore
    Hague—Whitecloud
    Holden—Coghlan

    Fleury

  • zovyn

    Jesse Granger
    @JesseGranger_
    ·
    8m
    Golden Knights lineup:

    Pacioretty—Stephenso—Tuch
    Marchessault—Karlsson—Smith
    Roy—Glass—Kolesar
    Carrier—Nosek—Reaves

    Martinez—Theodore
    Hague—Whitecloud
    Holden—Coghlan

    Fleury
    #VegasBorn

  • marker0357

    GL All

  • NextSignal

    @ryanprzy said...

    This is a fun slate. Lots of good plays. Recent history suggests that MON is gonna pound VAN with shots (what else is new?) so Thatcher Demko might be in for a heck of a night. I also love the seemingly overpriced Alexander Edler for that reason.

    Or you could mix and match any of the top nine MON forwards for a nice GPP stack. Lots of potential.

    Nick Bjugstad is a nice EV+ play if he’s really centering that top line with Kevin Fiala and Zach Parise.

    EDIT: As qatman mentioned, looks like Bjugstad has Kaprizov and Zuccarello for his linemates on MIN1.

    Even better for Bjugstad really. Zucc and Kaprizov have been great, I’m all over that line.

    GL all

  • zovyn

    Peter Baugh
    @Peter_Baugh
    ·
    16m
    The players the Avs have out tonight:

    -Forwards: Nathan MacKinnon, J.T. Compher
    -Defensemen: Cale Makar, Bowen Byram, Erik Johnson, Conor Timmins, Dennis Gilbert
    -Goalie: Pavel Francouz

    So that’s the first and third line centers, three defensive regulars and the backup goalie.

  • zovyn

    (F/D) Nichuskin $3.4k with Rantanen/Landeskog on COL1/PP2 – lock and load

  • thedkexperience

    My goalie (Blues) is 4% owned. Huh.

  • zovyn

    @thedkexperience said...

    My goalie (Blues) is 4% owned. Huh.

    It’s an unusual night with really no standout goalie or two choice – no chalk to speak of there… 6 games, 12 netminders = 8.3% per goalie. All else equal, tendency favors home teams for Wins, which would skew it slightly towards those… so 4% is not as odd as it might seem.

  • thedkexperience

    @zovyn said...

    It’s an unusual night with really no standout goalie or two choice – no chalk to speak of there… 6 games, 12 netminders = 8.3% per goalie. All else equal, tendency favors home teams for Wins, which would skew it slightly towards those… so 4% is not as odd as it might seem.

    Checks out.

  • qatman

    I somehow managed to overlook Yamamoto on L1. I think because I usually only take PP guys. Oh well!

  • thedkexperience

    Hague 5 shots on goal from defense lol

  • blackdirkdiggler

    Thanks for nothing Grubauer. No wonder my Caps let your sorry but walk.

  • zovyn

    Brendan Batchelor
    @BatchHockey
    ·
    4m
    Warmup lines for #GoHabsGo

    Tatar-Danault-Gallagher
    Drouin-Suzuki-Armia
    Toffoli-Kotkaniemi-Anderson
    Byron-Evans-Perry

    Chiarot-Weber
    Edmundson-Petry
    Kulak-Romanov

    Price

  • zovyn

    Brendan Batchelor
    BatchHockey · 7m Warmup lines for the #Canucks vs. CanadiensMTL
    :

    Pearson-Horvat-Virtanen
    Hoglander-Miller-Boeser
    Michaelis-Sutter-Gaudette
    Roussel-Beagle-Hawryluk

    Edler-Schmidt
    Hughes-Hamonic
    Benn-Myers

    Goal net#DemkoTime Goal net

  • zovyn

    Zach Dooley
    DooleyLAK · 7m Tonight’s LAKings
    Line Rushes –

    Iafallo – Kopitar – Brown
    Athanasiou – Vilardi – Carter
    Moore – Lizotte – Kempe
    Grundstrom – Kupari – Luff

    Anderson – Doughty
    MacDermid – Roy
    Maatta – Walker

    Petersen
    Grosenick

  • cplatt87

    @zovyn said...

    (F/D) Nichuskin $3.4k with Rantanen/Landeskog on COL1/PP2 – lock and load

    He was min priced on DK tonight too. Surprised he wasn’t more popular then he is. He’s only around 14% in most of contests.

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