NHL FORUM

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  • PensDangleSniper94

    Hello NHL community! I have a couple ideas to bounce off of your brilliant minds! First, which would you consider more important for CASH and GPP, Corsi or Fenwick? Second, in which order would you consider the listed stats to consider players for CASH and GPP: CF%REL/FF%REL also (if you don’t know what they are, its how productive a team is when the player is on the ice), THRU%(% of shots that get through by player), CF%/FF%(again depending on which you prefer). Thank you guys and much appreciated with any feedback!!!

  • qatman

    I don’t know, I use shots on goal/blocked shots/time on ice for the last 10 games, eyeball assists, check out the linemates and the power play, and see if they’re on a back to back. Seems to work ok.

  • Scumpunch

    Good question. I generally look at Corsi over Fenwick. I believe it’s been shown to be slightly more predictive of future scoring, though I don’t have a source for that handy.

    For DFS, I’m not really concerned about how many shots or goals a player allows, so I don’t look at percentage-based stats (CF%, FF%, etc.). Instead, I look at “For” stats (CF60, FF60, etc.) As an example, I would rather roster a player (or team) with a CF60 of 70 and a CA60 of 70 (CF% = 50) than a player (or team) with a CF60 of 60 and a CA60 of 40 (CF% = 60).

  • umwoz

    @Scumpunch said...

    Good question. I generally look at Corsi over Fenwick. I believe it’s been shown to be slightly more predictive of future scoring, though I don’t have a source for that handy.

    For DFS, I’m not really concerned about how many shots or goals a player allows, so I don’t look at percentage-based stats (CF%, FF%, etc.). Instead, I look at “For” stats (CF60, FF60, etc.) As an example, I would rather roster a player (or team) with a CF60 of 70 and a CA60 of 70 (CF% = 50) than a player (or team) with a CF60 of 60 and a CA60 of 40 (CF% = 60).

    This is a great place to start. % stats aren’t great and Scumpunch’s post here describes it very well.

    But in that post, realize that the root of his disregard for the CF% stats comes from understanding what these stats mean. I would recommend any beginner NHL players head over to the Glossary of any major analytics site and get comfortable. Not understanding the sport is probably the number one reason players struggle.

  • KindGuy

    @Scumpunch said...

    Good question. I generally look at Corsi over Fenwick. I believe it’s been shown to be slightly more predictive of future scoring, though I don’t have a source for that handy.

    For DFS, I’m not really concerned about how many shots or goals a player allows, so I don’t look at percentage-based stats (CF%, FF%, etc.). Instead, I look at “For” stats (CF60, FF60, etc.) As an example, I would rather roster a player (or team) with a CF60 of 70 and a CA60 of 70 (CF% = 50) than a player (or team) with a CF60 of 60 and a CA60 of 40 (CF% = 60).

    X

  • umwoz

    @elementasrat said...

    Just so I understand this correctly, what you’re basically saying is to look for games where the teams like to shoot a lot which inevitably lead to more goals due to the shootout style nature these games play. I.e. Avoid games involving the Devils and target games involving teams like the Senators?

    I know that your question wasn’t directed at me but in a nutshell…. yes. However if you were to compare the Devils road splits I think they rank somewhere in the top 5 as far as game pace(CF + CA) goes, pretty easy team to target on the road especially if Schneider isn’t playing.

  • stayready40

    im trying to learn the sport and find it hard to just find info. example where can i find Fantasy point game logs at?

  • stayready40

    @umwoz said...

    This is a great place to start. % stats aren’t great and Scumpunch’s post here describes it very well.

    But in that post, realize that the root of his disregard for the CF% stats comes from understanding what these stats mean. I would recommend any beginner NHL players head over to the Glossary of any major analytics site and get comfortable. Not understanding the sport is probably the number one reason players struggle.

    Thanks for this advice because I am new to hockey period let alone DFS and i Like it but I am relying on “expert” advice which I hate doing because if i am going to lose my money I would rather it be because of my own choices not someone else’s. im trying to learn the sport and find it hard to just find info. example where can i find Fantasy point results at?

  • kdub

    delete

  • goldengoat29

    @umwoz said...

    I know that your question wasn’t directed at me but in a nutshell…. yes. However if you were to compare the Devils road splits I think they rank somewhere in the top 5 as far as game pace(CF + CA) goes, pretty easy team to target on the road especially if Schneider isn’t playing.

    The sample size is really large enough to form an opinion about how well the Devils play on the road?

  • pokerrob1970

    DraftDay BLB Finalist

    IMO none of those stats listed in the op are useful. Some of the expected goal stuff on Corsica is ok as it applies to teams but it still leaves a lot to be desired when it comes to players.

  • BeltWieldindad

    @pokerrob1970 said...

    IMO none of those stats listed in the op are useful. Some of the expected goal stuff on Corsica is ok as it applies to teams but it still leaves a lot to be desired when it comes to players.

    As a starting point I would advise looking into teams CF60, CA60, SCF60, SCA60, xGF, xGA; as well as players individual CF (iCF60) ixGF60 and iSCF60. I find these statistics to be a suitable starting point for researching the days NHL slate. You can find all of this information on corsica’s teams section and corsica’s skaters section respectively.

  • pokerrob1970

    DraftDay BLB Finalist

    The problem with the iXG stuff is a lack of perspective. They use league average numbers when generating those stats, That removes the players shooting skill form the equation ie if Sid shoots 23% on his HDS and Sam Gagne shoots 11% on his their ixg numbers are the same if they have taken the same number of shots from the same locations. So you don’t get a true representation of what that number really mean.

  • maxeernst

    @pokerrob1970 said...

    The problem with the iXG stuff is a lack of perspective. They use league average numbers when generating those stats, That removes the players shooting skill form the equation ie if Sid shoots 23% on his HDS and Sam Gagne shoots 11% on his their ixg numbers are the same if they have taken the same number of shots from the same locations. So you don’t get a true representation of what that number really mean.

    You get a better representation than nothing at all…. Some xG models do factor in shooter talent by the way.

    The Corsica model “exclude[s] shooter talent not because it isn’t an important factor, but rather because I fear players may unfairly benefit or suffer from their linemates’ aptitude.”

  • PensDangleSniper94

    So lately I have been focusing more on CF60 and CA60 for players, along with their CF%Rel and Thru%. Purely for how players perform when these players are on the ice and what percentage of their shots actually make it on net, since that is a major part of their FP production. Also, I have been focusing more on the individual player stats aforementioned, because I feel that looking at team stats at points can be biased and you will miss out on value or a good play in general. What do you guys think about that? I am honestly just trying to gain more knowledge on how to research for NHL, out of all the sports its the one I love the most but I am terrible at it.
    Thanks for the feedback thus far!

  • Scumpunch

    @PensDangleSniper94 said...

    So lately I have been focusing more on CF60 and CA60 for players, along with their CF%Rel and Thru%.

    I consider myself fairly up-to-date on hockey analytics, and I’ve literally never heard anyone mention Thru% before this thread. If I had to guess, I would speculate that players with lower Thru% are generally better DFS plays since they tend to shoot from anywhere, whereas players with higher Thru% are much more selective with their shots and tend to take fewer….. but my guess is that is not how you are interpreting it.

    Edit: Just checked. Of players with at least 30 shot attempts, the league lead in Thru% belongs to….. Jori Lehtera. In general though, it seems even more random and inconclusive than I suspected.

  • kellykip

    To the OP: I’d highly recommend you picking up the Opening Faceoff package offered in the Daily Marketplace. Among the other solid and helpful content provided, JayWilly has a really good write up discussing advanced analytics.

  • PensDangleSniper94

    Does anyone know of a website, that I can use to pull data like CA and CF/60 and iCF and iCA/60? I have my own excel sheet and I pull data in so I can organize it as I like to make my own player pool. Or does anyone know how to calculate these stats, only downfall is I would not be able to calculate the teammate portion of stats on my own. I did read the Opening Faceoff but the sites will not work for my queries.

  • maxeernst

    @PensDangleSniper94 said...

    Does anyone know of a website, that I can use to pull data like CA and CF/60 and iCF and iCA/60? I have my own excel sheet and I pull data in so I can organize it as I like to make my own player pool. Or does anyone know how to calculate these stats, only downfall is I would not be able to calculate the teammate portion of stats on my own. I did read the Opening Faceoff but the sites will not work for my queries.

    You can download the data from Corsica daily and input it.

    Or you can potentially pull from puckalytics or hockeyanalysis. Not sure.

  • Aparisi33

    When you guys construct a line up what’s the one thing you focus on first…a particular forward line? A pp line including/excluding a d man?

    Thanks

  • eaglezzz

    Aparisi33 —

    - Check out to see if anyone is on a B2B. – Vegas lines for big home goalie favorites with o/u of 5.0 and anything above -150 ML. – Look at teams PP and PK rankings and try to see trends for the day – Try to find 2 player stacks who play on L1 and PP1 together. – For GPPs I like to find 3 two player stacks at the forward positions and see what D-man I can add in from those three teams as well.

  • Aparisi33

    Awesome thanks….I’m a huge hockey fan and do this for pure enjoyment which makes me watch more games then strictly flyers but have had zero success lol

  • Aparisi33

    Figure I’ll ask this here too
    On fantasyaces…since you’re only allowed two centers I’m guessing you just stack two lines and some dmen that play with them and hope for the best? Curious to see what the strategy is

  • PensDangleSniper94

    Referring to the Opening Faceoff article, where could I find the likes of different goalie saves (low, medium and high danger) and then these types of shots for players, as well as where they pass from? I have looked all over and cannot find any of this data, it seems very beneficial in seeking out players.

  • pokerrob1970

    DraftDay BLB Finalist

    @PensDangleSniper94 said...

    Referring to the Opening Faceoff article, where could I find the likes of different goalie saves (low, medium and high danger) and then these types of shots for players, as well as where they pass from? I have looked all over and cannot find any of this data, it seems very beneficial in seeking out players.

    Its not available to the public in its raw form. The best you have available is the corsica xg data. But as stated before the true value of the stats IMO is lost in it

  • bluffer_78

    First time poster – I’m impressed with the amount of knowledge on the thread. Here’s a question: How much, if at all, do you consider DVP and if so, how much does it factor into your decision? I try to incorporate this into my analysis but I believe I exclude a good number of potentially high-scoring skaters unintentionally. Example, from 12/14: Pittsburgh skaters vs. Boston. Boston cedes a low number of fantasy points to teams overall and is in the bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed across each position, but Pittsburgh is the top scoring team on the road (31 GF in 14 GP). In a fantasy article on another website, Sheary and Rust were mentioned as a top target. They ended up coming through in terms of fantasy points, but is this a statistical outlier? Or should DVP be discounted?

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