PGA FORUM

Comments

  • mcb13100

    Riviera is a fairly long course that tends to favor players that have a natural power fade. With that said, off the top of my head I know that JB Holmes and Gary Woodland are bombers that fade the ball. Anybody else know of other players that fit that mold?

  • walkoff9

    • 613

      RG Overall Ranking

    The first hole seems easier than just about any hole i have seen all year…

    60% birdies, 6% eagles

    With how tough the rest of this course is not scoring on this hole will kill most players.

  • gibbathy

    2014 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year

    • Blogger of the Month

    @walkoff9 said...

    The first hole seems easier than just about any hole i have seen all year…

    60% birdies, 6% eagles

    With how tough the rest of this course is not scoring on this hole will kill most players.

    Last year only 4 holes played under par

  • Agent47

    Pardon me for the noob question from someone who doesn’t play PGA DFS a lot…but, in general, do you guys typically give more weight to course history or a golfer’s recent history over the past x number of events?

    I thought of this while looking at Keegan Bradley. I love the fact that for only $7,800 on DK, you get a guy with 2 top 10 and 2 top 20 finishes over the past 4 years at Riviera. But then I see his game log for this season, and I see 3 missed cuts in 6 appearances and his best finish being an 8th place over 2 months ago. Not sure if I should ignore the past success at Riviera over the last 4 years because of his mediocre recent form, or do I trust his track record there and not worry so much about his struggles this season.

    I realize that ultimately I have to make that decision, but I was just wondering if any PGA regulars would care to share their thoughts on how they view players that are in this situation.

  • BIF

    @Agent47 said...

    Pardon me for the noob question from someone who doesn’t play PGA DFS a lot…but, in general, do you guys typically give more weight to course history or a golfer’s recent history over the past x number of events?

    Obviously both factors are great to have but that also yields ownership percentages over 15% when someone has both course history and solid recent performances.

    I personally like course history better as you can’t really make an excuse for a guy proven year after year that he was lucky; a recent performance slump can be attributed to many things – coming off a long break, an injury, adding new/different events, a swing change, new coach/caddie, a divorce (Dufner is perfect example who has rebounded). However, my experience in sports betting tells me that you make more money riding a trend (streak) than going against it so a player on a hot streak should not really be ignored either.

    It is not as simple as that….if it was we’d all be splitting 1st place e Rey week. Last week, I got burned on a couple guys who had good course history including Singh, but again other factors could weigh in like he is now over 50 and maybe skills and/or his work ethic is dimished or maybe he just had the flu….you never really know.

    In GPP’s I see that recent performance is a slightly better predictor of ownership versus course history – everyone wants the hot guy going into a tournament (and why wouldn’t you). If a guy misses a cut and pisses people off, he’ll be lower owned the next week and I expect McGirt to drop significantly after last week’s badly missed cut despite having both factors working in his favor going in. I also think DJ’s recent poor finishes in events he had success in will also bring him down ownership-wise.

    Also, other factors can play into it as well……beginning this week and throughout Florida-swing you will see many Euro tour players coming over leading up to the majors so tough to assess course history if there isn’t much and also recent performance may be skewed as it was against a weaker field.

  • Agent47

    Thank you for the thoughts and insights, BIF. I appreciate it!

  • badtrip

    I get a plate and a couple of screws installed in my lower leg at 6:00 am tomorrow, So cool that I can spend the rest of the day playing with line ups, wonderful distraction.

    I plan on having lots of Sergio. The guys I put on my list yesterday, are all mentioned in the articles out today. Hate to run with the herd, but there are a bunch of guys that look like such solid spots.

  • TJRhodes

    @Agent47 said...

    Pardon me for the noob question from someone who doesn’t play PGA DFS a lot…but, in general, do you guys typically give more weight to course history or a golfer’s recent history over the past x number of events?

    I thought of this while looking at Keegan Bradley. I love the fact that for only $7,800 on DK, you get a guy with 2 top 10 and 2 top 20 finishes over the past 4 years at Riviera. But then I see his game log for this season, and I see 3 missed cuts in 6 appearances and his best finish being an 8th place over 2 months ago. Not sure if I should ignore the past success at Riviera over the last 4 years because of his mediocre recent form, or do I trust his track record there and not worry so much about his struggles this season.

    I realize that ultimately I have to make that decision, but I was just wondering if any PGA regulars would care to share their thoughts on how they view players that are in this situation.

    Obviously, you would want both, but one way to get better clarity is to look at how they did on previous years to compare. If a player has missed cuts this year, and he did the same thing last year leading up to the NTO, but he still had a top 10, you could make a case to play him. This may be his course regardless of his early performance.

    Where it really gets interesting are the players with little to no course history. I think this is where you gain an advantage on the field if you can choose the players that will show up.

  • theoddsmaker

    Justin Thomas will live up to what I call him as the biggest tease in DFS golf. On FantasyFeud he is min priced. Spieth is $196,00 and Thomas is $30,000 for perspective. You HAVE to take him and he will inevitably disappoint and be a MC this week!

    I will be at Round 1 tomorrow and go every single year…I know the course like the back of my hand at this point

  • Agent47

    Thanks, TJRhodes.

  • Necrophagist

    Im thinking ,

    Justin Rose
    Charles Howell III
    Andrew Loupe

    thoughts gpp dk?

  • smallANDflaccid

    @BIF said...

    a player on a hot streak should not really be ignored either

    What constitutes a streak?
    (not argumentative, but a genuine question)

    Like last three holes were under par, so this one should be too?
    Last three rounds were under par, so this one should be too?
    Placed top N in the last three tournaments, so this one should too?

  • awilson45

    What do you guys think about Schwartzel vs Scott (ownership % considered)? I like Sergio, but it seems like a lot of people will be rostering him.

  • BIF

    @smallANDflaccid said...

    What constitutes a streak?
    (not argumentative, but a genuine question)

    Like last three holes were under par, so this one should be too?
    Last three rounds were under par, so this one should be too?
    Placed top N in the last three tournaments, so this one should too?

    I’ll qualify this saying it is based on how’d you normally expect the guy to perform meaning 2 Top 10’s (9th place finishes) would be a streak for Spieth but it would be for Hubbard who has never finished Top 20

    I’d say for almost anyone besides the very Top tier players that 2+ tournaments in a row finishing Top 15 is a very positive sign and I might wanna get on board. Given that, I do also look at what events these were and where – being hot in California then going to Florida next week is very different and I’ll likely discount the “streak” unless there is some good history in Florida as well.

    I understand your question as it is a very qualitative opinion but in a post earlier this season, I talked about the difference between the guys near the Top, the average and the poor players over a season being that those at the top typically get hot 2-3 times and have mini-streaks of high finishes, the average guys only have one such run and those losing their tour cards don’t have any streaks and maybe just one higher finish. The very elite can win almost any week so their performance while excellent is more sporadic. So again, getting a guy on a bit of a heater is usually a better bet versus catching a guy you hope is “due for a good week”

    Look at almost any player’s results over a season and you will see a mini run of 2-4 events of better than the rest of the season finishes, some guys may have more than 1 run but overall there is a 3 or 4 event stretch that stands out and makes their season financially.

  • BIF

    @awilson45 said...

    What do you guys think about Schwartzel vs Scott (ownership % considered)? I like Sergio, but it seems like a lot of people will be rostering him.

    I’d guess Sergio to be 3-4% higher owned than Schwartzel partially because he is a more household name and has a good course history also decent on tougher courses where Schwartzel (Masters victory aside) is not as well known and not really someone I’d call flamboyant or someone who is being marketed (like Garcia in the past and Fowler, etc…nowadays). However I may be surprised as I have seen some fantasy sites recommending Schwartzel because of his win in S. Africa last week.

  • theoddsmaker

    @BIF said...

    I’d guess Sergio to be 3-4% higher owned than Schwartzel partially because he is a more household name and has a good course history also decent on tougher courses where Schwartzel (Masters victory aside) is not as well known and not really someone I’d call flamboyant or someone who is being marketed (like Garcia in the past and Fowler, etc…nowadays). However I may be surprised as I have seen some fantasy sites recommending Schwartzel because of his win in S. Africa last week.

    You do realize Schwartzel has amazing course history here right? He is perfect for this course in that he is a great ball striker and doesn’t need his putter to go HAM just need to minimize blow up holes here.

  • smallANDflaccid

    @BIF said...

    Look at almost any player’s results over a season and you will see a mini run of 2-4 events of better than the rest of the season finishes, some guys may have more than 1 run but overall there is a 3 or 4 event stretch that stands out and makes their season financially.

    Thanks!

  • Shlune

    tbh im having trouble making a core this week since i dont mass enter to much and im still learning and very new to dfs……there are a lot of players to target this week it seems……

    i have some decent gpps lineups i think (unless ev1 i fade just goes off ha)

    …..thoughts on this for 50/50(so many solid plays in the mid price range i didnt want to pay up for a stud and have to slot a punt for dbl ups):

    k choi
    h english
    b haas
    f jacobson
    m jones
    c schwartzel………..THANKS

  • BIF

    @theoddsmaker said...

    You do realize Schwartzel has amazing course history here right? He is perfect for this course in that he is a great ball striker and doesn’t need his putter to go HAM just need to minimize blow up holes here.

    Schwartzel has a 3rd, 5th and most recently 41st in last 3 years

    Garcia has not been out of Top 13 in his last 3 visits (he skipped 2014) including two 4th place finishes

    So…..who has better history here ??? I’ll say Garcia
    Who played better here last year ?? I’ll say Garcia 4th versus 41st
    Who is more well known ?? Edge to Garcia despite not winninga major because of his duels with Tiger, his branding by Taylor Made and being European, his Ryder Cup exposure trumps Schwartzel Pres Cup exposure.
    Overall ball striker edge – yah Schwartzel but Garcia is still one of the best Drivers in the game, he hits fairways and at a good distance – at Riviera, if you are not in the fairway, you have a disadvantage so both are worth of a look.

    The original poster asked about ownership % – I still expect the edge for that to go to Garcia for all of the reasons above

  • Feibla22

    Thoughts on Ownership %‘s for this week:

    I think Spieth will actually be pretty low this week due to his price, the increase in the strength of the field and most importantly how many people he burned last week. I also think there’s a bunch of great bounce back opportunities for players that burned people last week who have great CH here: McGirt, Hahn, Molder, and Summerhays are all pretty interesting at their prices

    As far as good fades, I think Holmes will be a popular starting point or 2nd guy on peoples rosters and the guys around him seem like much better plays. And then all the 1st timers seem like good fades: Smylie, Rodgers, Si Woo, etc and even other similar sophomores on their 2nd try like JT and Finau. There’s pretty good stats out there on 1st timers really struggling here so I think it’s a good time to jump off all their bandwagons

  • BIF

    @Feibla22 said...

    Thoughts on Ownership %‘s for this week:

    Agree on just about everything – I’m throwing Spieth in to the bounce back category as well – he back doored a Top 25 last week (so not a missed cut) but now he has been back in US for a bit now and very little travel this week so while he will be down from last week due to salary and field strength, I think he’ll still be near the top of both ownership and leaderboard.

    Rodgers will be popular at his low price and Si Woo keeps making cuts so him too – so agreeing on those fades from a GPP strategy point of view alone.

  • theoddsmaker

    @BIF said...

    Schwartzel has a 3rd, 5th and most recently 41st in last 3 years

    Garcia has not been out of Top 13 in his last 3 visits (he skipped 2014) including two 4th place finishes

    I wasn’t trying to diminish Garcia at all, simply point out the fact that it was only mentioned that Garcia was going to be more popular than Schwartzel due to his great course history…just pointing out Charl has a good history here (like you mentioned 41st/5th/3rd here…not too shabby) to get that info in the loop as well. No doubt Garcia is a bigger household name but if a ton of articles are pimping Charl he is likely to be pretty high owned.

  • AB99

    Saw that Mats skipped out on the pro-am with flu-like symptoms. He goes out early tomorrow so getting up before the cutoff is imperative for me on the west coast. I have Mats in a fair amount of my lineups….any thoughts?

  • gibbathy

    2014 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year

    • Blogger of the Month

    @AB99 said...

    Saw that Mats skipped out on the pro-am with flu-like symptoms. He goes out early tomorrow so getting up before the cutoff is imperative for me on the west coast. I have Mats in a fair amount of my lineups….any thoughts?

    It was this time almost two years ago Hideki WD right before the Honda and screwed many people. Wrist injury. Which was oddly enough 2 days after his 21st birthday.

  • AB99

    So I have pivoted to Rose and DJ or a downgrade to Kuch with some other upgrades but I hate to not have any because he just sets up perfect here. One of two things can happen…people hear about it get scared and he ends up 2-4 percent owned and plays awesome, or he gets to the second tee, starts pucking and bails

  • zshatz11

    I can’t believe the birdie already filled up. DK really messed up with their tournaments this week.

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).