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  • mcb13100

    Riviera is a fairly long course that tends to favor players that have a natural power fade. With that said, off the top of my head I know that JB Holmes and Gary Woodland are bombers that fade the ball. Anybody else know of other players that fit that mold?

  • theoddsmaker

    Just because I’ve attended this tourney so much and know the course like the back of my hand going to break down each hole and what it takes to be successful at Riviera. I will be walking around tomorrow drinking beers and yelling at my punt plays to make the cut.

    Hole 1 – one of the easiest holes on tour. Fantastic view from the tee box where the golfers hit off a 150 foot ledge onto the generous fairway. Unless they really shank it most guys will have a good shot of hitting the green from the rough or fairway. The bunker in front makes it just a tad tougher to roll it on, but these guys are pros and can navigate around it. Really big green so 3 putts happen here and if your guy pars this hole he is in BIG trouble because there really aren’t any more free birdies rest of the way…most will birdie and eagles are more likely than bogies.

    Hole 2 – Tight tee shot and very important to be on fairway to get enough spin to stick the tight green. almost got drilled by a Hunter Mahan tee shot here one time walking all the way to the left but that’s where the driving range net is…so you can only shank it so far here.shank to the right and it’s bogey at best. Approach don’t want to miss left in the nasty traps on this a miss right could bounce off the embankment onto the green (I’ve seen it happen). Green is so small you rarely see 3-putts…this is why Schwartzel does well here. Get a par and move on.

    Hole 3 – basically no edge on the tee shot distance or precision doesn’t matter too much, everyone usually has a good look and sticks a GIR here, most people don’t get it close enough and most people 2 putt. expect a ton of pars here

    Hole 4 – this is where it gets dicey. the later groups will be teeing off into the sun, into the wind here which can play as long as 248 par 3. I’m telling you though, with the wind blowing in later you see guys like Luke Donald using a 3 Wood/Hybrid on a Par 3. It’s pretty common to see an ugly tee shot out of every group here. If you go long it drops off the back and the hole is typically in the back left making it nearly impossible to make an up and down if you go long. COURSE HISTORY guys know to aim for right side of green (a lot to work with, avoid the bunker) and draw it in, the green then funnels it towards the hole pretty good too. Par is good score here. Guys like Dustin Johnson who can use a 6 or 7 iron here have a HUGE edge imo.

    Hole 5 – Pretty tight tee shot but you can’t drive it past the moat area so even bombers that can be a bit wayward off the tee have no edge or pitfall here. Everyone is usually dead center of fairway using a 3 wood or even iron off tee. Sometimes you see a dip **** like Martin Laird rip it too long and into the moat area I was talking about…it is a nasty downhill stretch of I don’t even know what…just a schmegma of weeds and crap. If I see any of my guys hit in there I will run to the bar at Hole 7 to do a shot because that lineup is dead. Approach shot is key and you do not want to go long here, huge run off down the back and pin is usually in the back. COURSE HISTORY guys will know to not even mess with this hole and just hit their approach mid part of green and stick it there…just get 20” away and 2 putt for par and move on.

    Hole 6 – a very fun hole. Sand trap right in middle of green. If player hits ball on wrong side of green they either have to putt up around it (with their back to the hole) or are allowed to usually chip it over the trap. When a player misses wrong side of green time to grab your popcorn because hilarity will ensue. I know for a fact this is why the bar is right by the green. Saw Jeff Overton have to do this last year and his head nearly exploded. COURSE HISTORY hole for sure.

    Hole 7 – just hit it in fairway and worry about approach shot. Bombers have 0 edge here there isn’t a safe landing zone and it doesn’t help being long here. The green is perched up at an awkward angle and is VERY narrow. There is about a 10 foot drop off to the left so it’s very key to hit a GIR here and if you do birdie is possible.

    Hole 8 – cool 2 fairway hole. 90% of the players just go down the aggressive left side because it isn’t too tricky and is a much better angle towards the hole. Green is pretty easy to hit from there but I can’t tell you how many short putts I’ve seen missed here. COURSE HISTORY benefits them big time here. Can’t wait to see Rory 3-putt here tomorrow and see the look on his face.

    Hole 9 – pretty wide open tee shot with nothing around. only reason to be on the fairway is to get some spin on approach shot since this green is pretty tight with 2 levels. having distance off the tee allows you to club down and get more height/control on the ball. Par is super common on this. I’ve seen quite a few LONG putts drained here so it’s a hole to possibly sneak in a birdie.

    Hole 10 – the GPP hole of the course. It is so tempting to try to drive it on the 310 foot par 4 green but the stars have to align for you to stick it on in 1 because it’s a very tight green with a bunker that won’t allow anything to trickle on. Only Bubba would be able to curve it on here but he tends to do what you are supposed to here and get it out left just in front of the far left trap and give yourself a good angle to get on the green in 2 and get a par. You see a lot of players get too aggressive here and it bites them in the ass.

    Hole 11 – gigantic par 5. there is enough bull **** happening about 300-325 yards out where a bomber can’t just rip and be able to reach in 2. This is actually a PAR 5. a TON of treeage on the right and bull **** to the left so non-bombers that keep it in the fairway are fine here.

    Hole 12/13 – very similar holes. these are key to hit it in the fairway. If you play these hole text book you will par them so that’s why you see quite a few players give a stroke back or 2 on this stretch, they have to stay out of the rough on these.

    Hole 14 – a funky shaped Par 3 green making precision key. they like to tuck the pin just behind the traps on either side making this a pretty tough hole to get close on. a lot of guys miss short in the trap on this but many of those are able to get up and down. No one really misses long here because that’s where the grandstand full of drunk people is.

    Hole 15 – guys with late tee times will be teeing off directly into the sun here, left side of fairway is ideal here. someone like Bubba who can hook it around and get it rolling down the dog leg has a huge edge here. Par is good score.

    Hole 16 – freaky looking hole with Tim Burton looking trees around it. guys can get it pretty close here depending on hole placement. Maybe see a hole in one every other tourney here. Anyone who bogies this is an asshole.

    Hole 17 – LONG par 5. to be honest, it’s such a tight par 5 not sure it’s reachable for even the best bombers. the green is pretty well protected so you can’t really grip it and rip it and pray. That’s the thing about this course is having distance is a huge edge, precision is more important though, and some holes only allow the edge distance creates to be capped with random schmegma moats and tight green on holes where it would really be a boost. A lot of guys are hitting their 3rd from 100 feet away and getting it fairly close but this is a Par hole for sure.

    Hole 18 – epic closing hole. the blind tee shot is literally at a giant dead grass hill. perfect tee shot is to hit it straight over the hill and have it fade to the right. a very intimidating tee shot for a guy playing 1st tourney here. approach shot is pretty tough to get it close on a very tiny odd shaped up hill green. then putting on here is pretty tricky. Par is a good score and very fun finishing hole to watch.

    tl;dr – i enjoy this tourney and this course too much

  • space_monkey_mafia

    bravo theoddsmaker. Great post

    Question: Haven’t seen Rory getting lots of love on here, any reason? Also, do we think he’ll be owned less than Spieth &or DJ

  • Stickman731

    He usually does poorly after a win and when you add on the flights / jet lag from South Africa to LA. I am personally avoiding him.

    http://www.golfstats.com/search/?player=Charl+Schwartzel&career=&chart=&box=&tour=&tournament=&yr=&submitted=go

    PS: Last year – he had a month off before this event when he T41 with +3, but in his previous finishes he play Joburg and did well at Riviera

  • theoddsmaker

    @space_monkey_mafia said...

    bravo theoddsmaker. Great post

    Question: Haven’t seen Rory getting lots of love on here, any reason? Also, do we think he’ll be owned less than Spieth &or DJ

    thanks. as you can see from my breakdown, a lot of holes benefit from course history and I’ve studied course vets verses guys playing it for the first time and you can see the difference. i think rory can’t get away with raw talent here and there are things about the course that will make him frustrated (that he will remember next time for sure). it’s sucks Lefty isn’t playing here because he plays it the best out of anyone not sure why he took it off his schedule last 2 seasons. andy sullivan is another perfect example. people will see his name way up the bookmaker odds and assume he is a sneaky play but he is going to get eaten alive by this course his first time.

    as I mentioned Schwartzel plays well here because everyone is going to have their putter fail them multiple times here…which is usually his downfall…but he is steady tee to green so that’s why I think he does well here. KJ Choi is another guy that plays this course PERFECTLY, the only thing holding him back is raw talent obviously but he is always sneaky here. it also pays to have a short memory (in terms of shaking off a bad hole) so I’m surprised how well Sergio has done here, honestly. A guy like DJ/Bubba is perfect for this course. In order to win you can’t have that many “blow up” holes which they are always capable of. If you have a guy get a triple bogey tomorrow it is not ideal obviously but if he can shake it off he can stay above the cut actually since it’s bound to happen to everyone.

  • walkoff9

    • 595

      RG Overall Ranking

    Where do we think mats ownership will go assuming most people bail?

    Rose is the easiest pivot but nobody likes to roster him

  • skeeter1114

    • Blogger of the Month

    This has to be a first: I have the same exact team on Aces as I do on DK. Feel like Aces tightened up a little bit and DK got a little looser off the top 2.

    I’m playing Freddie Jacobson for the first time ever, so I apologize in advance if I put the kiss of death on him.

  • theoddsmaker

    @skeeter1114 said...

    This has to be a first: I have the same exact team on Aces as I do on DK. Feel like Aces tightened up a little bit and DK got a little looser off the top 2.

    I’m playing Freddie Jacobson for the first time ever, so I apologize in advance if I put the kiss of death on him.

    i have gone 1/6 in 2 of last 3 tournies on Aces…

  • TommyWantWingy33

    Wow odds that is an awesome write up! Really wish I lived near a PGA event sounds like a blast.

  • zshatz11

    @walkoff9 said...

    Rose is the easiest pivot but nobody likes to roster him

    I think Rose is my favorite guy at the top this week

  • skeeter1114

    • Blogger of the Month

    @theoddsmaker said...

    i have gone 1/6 in 2 of last 3 tournies on Aces…

    I had 6/6 at Phoenix a couple weeks back, but only cashed tournies when Matsuyama won the playoff over Fowler. I almost feel that on Aces, you’re better off with more of a cash game approach since there are no position bonuses (except win). You’re done with 5/6 or worse so maybe more conservative on Aces is way to go. I may be wrong too on that; just my observations after playing it for nearly a year.

  • TommyWantWingy33

    Man anyone else feel like playing half the field this week? Lot of good plays damn draft kings making it so easy to build line ups this week lol.

  • collegeball2121

    No one hate on the new guy! I am slowly trying to get into golf, I use DK, and a need a little help with tomorrow. I have most of my lineup down, but I need help with this one…
    Charles Howell + V Taylor, Iwata, or Hubbard
    OR
    Fredrik Jacobson + Campbell or Crane
    OR
    Na + Overton

  • Elephantjockey

    @collegeball2121 said...

    No one hate on the new guy! I am slowly trying to get into golf, I use DK, and a need a little help with tomorrow. I have most of my lineup down, but I need help with this one…
    Charles Howell + V Taylor, Iwata, or Hubbard
    OR
    Fredrik Jacobson + Campbell or Crane
    OR
    Na + Overton

    Personally, I’d do either howell and taylor or jacobson and campbell but that’s just me.

  • DanielSong39

    @collegeball2121 said...

    No one hate on the new guy! I am slowly trying to get into golf, I use DK, and a need a little help with tomorrow. I have most of my lineup down, but I need help with this one…
    Charles Howell + V Taylor, Iwata, or Hubbard
    OR
    Fredrik Jacobson + Campbell or Crane
    OR
    Na + Overton

    Howell is a solid pick.
    I would recommend Blayne Barber ahead of Taylor, Iwata, or Hubbard at 6800.

    Jacobson is another solid pick; at 6500 guys like Every and Summerhays become tempting. Or you can drop all the way down to 6100 and Bowditch, and upgrade your lineup somewhere else.

    I don’t think Na is great value for this spot. Prefer Keegan Bradley or Harris English at that price range.

  • Dewoc19

    I feel like I’m to heavy on Choi, English and Sergio, that combo is in 3 out of my 4 lineups

  • nickrock23

    Was using Taylor initially but figure he’s thinking about Masters now. So decided to fade him, going w/Iwata and threw in some Varner, Castro in same price range.
    Also using Barber (6800 I believe), who got 12th place here last year (65 last round).

    Kinda hard not to use Jacobson. Price is good and he’s been so solid. I would guess he’s gonna be 20% so if you do fade him and he screws up and misses cut, it’ll make it that much easier to cash.

  • nickrock23

    @Dewoc19 said...

    I feel like I’m to heavy on Choi, English and Sergio, that combo is in 3 out of my 4 lineups

    I have 5 LUs so far, and using all 3 of those guys but none in the same LU.

  • Dewoc19

    @nickrock23 said...

    I have 5 LUs so far, and using all 3 of those guys but none in the same LU.

    Well one things for sure, I’m either gonna be sink or swim this week!!

  • klyon28

    This is going to be my first ever golf contest on draftkings. Any tips to get me started? What is a good score for a golfer on draftkings? What is the average total score for cashing? I’m a huge golf fan and follow it a lot so I think I should have some good success on here once I get it figured out.

  • DanielSong39

    @klyon28 said...

    This is going to be my first ever golf contest on draftkings. Any tips to get me started? What is a good score for a golfer on draftkings? What is the average total score for cashing? I’m a huge golf fan and follow it a lot so I think I should have some good success on here once I get it figured out.

    If it’s your first contest I would advise sticking to low-value cash games – preferably 50-50’s and double-ups.

    You want to bleed money more slowly when you’re getting started.

  • LinkSinc

    I have a feeling Jimmy Walker might be a little lower owned than he should be this week. I feel lots of players are gonna go Rose, Sergio, or DJ instead. He’s been scoring well lately but not quite clicking yet. I don’t love him any more than the aforementioned guys, but if he’s firing on all cylinders and is at a lower ownership he could be a good play.

    My dilemma is I like Spieth a lot this week but for cash I just don’t trust what I have to put around him.

  • BIF

    @klyon28 said...

    This is going to be my first ever golf contest on draftkings. Any tips to get me started? What is a good score for a golfer on draftkings? What is the average total score for cashing? I’m a huge golf fan and follow it a lot so I think I should have some good success on here once I get it figured out.

    Scores vary significantly from week to week as some golf courses yield lots of birdies/Eagles while others don’t so the variance in winning total score from one week to the next could be 100 pts.

    Tips to get started – pick 6 guys who you think will make the cut as over half of the guys are done after Friday; if you get 6/6 thru to the weekend, you’ll almost certainly cash in a GPP as long as one of your guys is in Top 5 or better or all 6 within Top 40 – for a double up, 5/6 will cash almost always and often a good 4/6 lineup can as well if you have tourney winner or runner up.

    It isn’t like other sports where you are trying to get X points per $K of salary as it much more variable weekly based on course, setup, weather, etc…; two guys can both shoot 70 one day but they could differ by 10-12 DK pts based on one making lots of pars while the other made more birdies/bogies.

    I agree with the other poster saying tread lightly until you see some results from GPP’s/Double Ups to see how scoring works while a live tournament is going on.

  • zshatz11

    Carlos Ortiz is in 50% of my lineups. I believe!!

  • klyon28

    @BIF said...

    Scores vary significantly from week to week as some golf courses yield lots of birdies/Eagles while others don’t so the variance in winning total score from one week to the next could be 100 pts.

    Tips to get started – pick 6 guys who you think will make the cut as over half of the guys are done after Friday; if you get 6/6 thru to the weekend, you’ll almost certainly cash in a GPP as long as one of your guys is in Top 5 or better or all 6 within Top 40 – for a double up, 5/6 will cash almost always and often a good 4/6 lineup can as well if you have tourney winner or runner up.

    It isn’t like other sports where you are trying to get X points per $K of salary as it much more variable weekly based on course, setup, weather, etc…; two guys can both shoot 70 one day but they could differ by 10-12 DK pts based on one making lots of pars while the other made more birdies/bogies.

    I agree with the other poster saying tread lightly until you see some results from GPP’s/Double Ups to see how scoring works while a live tournament is going on.

    Thanks man that was very helpful!!

    I’m pretty happy with the lineup I have put together!!

  • BIF

    @zshatz11 said...

    Carlos Ortiz is in 50% of my lineups. I believe!!

    I had him a lot last year and is kind of streaky within a round with birds in bunches – didn’t play him this week despite him playing well here last year – kind of felt his driving accuracy started to slip this season and this is one course you want to hit approach shots to greens from the fairway as much as possible given the sticky kikuya rough and tough green side bunkers (Riviera is one of toughest on tour with a less than 40% sand save rate).

    Just looked at Ortiz’s accuracy and I was right – almost dead last in 216th @ 50.0% in this 2015-16 wraparound season versus 59+% last year. That equates to 1-2 extra shots from the rough each round. I realize it’s a smaller sample so far this year but his Ball Striking has also dropped him from 50th last year to over 150th this year and his sand save % has also dropped this year 55% to 44%.

    Good luck if you stay with him, I like watching him as he can he really bomb it for a 150lb guy.

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