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  • whodat2

    When: July 28-31 Golf starts on Wednesday 6:30pm EST.

    Where: Kasumigaseki Country Club | Japan

    Course: East Course | A par 71 playing at approximately 7400 yards

    Last Olympic Winner: Justin Rose

    Last Year’s Cut: No Cut

    Coverage: Golf Channel

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • JimKronlund

    @BrianVT said...

    I think the problem with your assumption is thinking people take a low owned, LOW PROBABILITY player. I run models and I only consider playing guys who I think are looking really good that week. I rank them. I then start looking at salaries and what will work and who is a good value. I then look at ownership. If I see two $7500 guys sitting right next to each other in my rankings, and one is projected at 8%, and one is projected at 20%, I might decide it’s in my best interest to take go heavier on the 8% guy because I’m playing against other people (not always, but sometimes). I’m not only trying to pick the best golfers; I’m trying to beat other people. More importantly, I’m not picking a low-owned player who I think has no chance at competing in the tournament. A low-owned player who stands out in my model is attractive.

    I don’t have an issue with that as it is way down on your matrix of decisions on who to pick. My point is that the lower ownership did not give you a better chance to win. It only matters that the player you decided on gets top points. Only then can that be viewed as a smart move, and that is purely hindsight because it was the player that got those points. Not his ownership.

    Also, you are not just playing against “other people”, you are playing against every other team period. You do not just have to beat teams that have the 20% player. You have to beat all the other teams that have the 8% player as well. So in the end it always comes down to picking the right player and the only role that ownership had was hindsight.

  • mitchsnyderdfw

    Well all this ownership and MME talk pushed me over the edge. Wasn’t going to do it this week, but what the hell. Minimax here I come….

  • kbarnhill7523

    • 373

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • x2

      2017 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    @BIF said...

    Agreed 100% but I still don’t feel any better about his WD costing me a 6/6 that finished only 47 points out of 1st and likely would have won $2K-5K 🙄

    Same I was 30th in the $3180 with a 4/6. Cash line was 24th and up and 16 people between me and the top had Lebioda so easily would have cashed if he didn’t WD.

  • JimKronlund

    @mitchsnyderdfw said...

    Well all this ownership and MME talk pushed me over the edge. Wasn’t going to do it this week, but what the hell. Minimax here I come….

    There are no contests under $5 and payout is 50% top ten. Which is a double edge sword because we all want first, but if when we fail to get first we want a smoother payout structure.

    I just looked again and now there is. When I looked before (monday morning I think) $5 was the lowest.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @depalma13 and kdsdawg: In a no cut small field event, I guess anything is possible, but I wouldn’t play Smylie Kaufman in a normal event even at 0.00001% ownership. We actually know nothing about Mane, but he has the worst odds and hasn’t played a tournament in more than 11 weeks.

  • mitchsnyderdfw

    @JimKronlund said...

    There are no contests under $5 and payout is 50% top ten. Which is a double edge sword because we all want first, but if when we fail to get first we want a smoother payout structure.

    I just looked again and now there is. When I looked before (monday morning I think) $5 was the lowest.

    So I guess I’m just going to have to Top 10 then.

  • JimKronlund

    @mitchsnyderdfw said...

    So I guess I’m just going to have to Top 10 then.

    You are always one step ahead of me lol

  • caleb21scott

    So can JT finish 1st, Morikawa finish 2nd and Reed finish 3rd meaning a Gold, Silver and Bronze medal for the USA?

  • kdsdawg

    @Felixxberg said...

    @depalma13 and kdsdawg: In a no cut small field event, I guess anything is possible, but I wouldn’t play Smylie Kaufman in a normal event even at 0.00001% ownership. We actually know nothing about Mane, but he has the worst odds and hasn’t played a tournament in more than 11 weeks.

    I didn’t play him. The lowest I went was Carl Yuan at $6700. I have pretty good bit of him.

  • monarch

    I like the other Japanese golfer in the field. Getting very little ownership because of his 7300 tag but he has two wins in Japan this year and finished 26th in the US Open gained 8.2 strokes on approach to the field.

  • lfn1992

    @monarch said...

    I like the other Japanese golfer in the field. Getting very little ownership because of his 7300 tag but he has two wins in Japan this year and finished 26th in the US Open gained 8.2 strokes on approach to the field.

  • kdsdawg

    I wonder how Si Woo Kim’s back is feeling. We got any info on that?

  • klf_is_gonna_rock_ya

    @Getty33 said...

    Between touts, experts, and the forum this might be the first time I’ve heard anyone mention his name. Casey and Fleets on the UK side getting plenty of attention, but Rory might be the highest priced sleeper I can ever remember. Then again, maybe he just sucks right now.

    People will play Rory…..they always do.

  • timusbr

    Yes we have dime qtr minimax dollar 2 dollar 3dollar and 4 dollar gpps.

    I am notsaying they are good or bad. just saying we have them as options.

  • BrianVT

    @caleb21scott said...

    So can JT finish 1st, Morikawa finish 2nd and Reed finish 3rd meaning a Gold, Silver and Bronze medal for the USA?

    Yes, that’s possible. It’s completely individual tournament.

  • timusbr

    I think the Tiers contest mirrors my discomfort of options in classic. Except its more structured and 33 of the 60 golfers. leaving the lowest scrubs not even an option(yeah).

    T1 uses the options I considered for who would win.
    T2 uses the golfers, I thought wouldnt win
    T3 I like all 6 of the options
    T4 all playable, I went with who I thought would be less owned and this is a big pivot from my classic LU’s. (so if my classic doesnt work, Tiers might)
    T5 arguably wide open, dont like or dislike the golfers, using my bias to go single.
    T6 Leaning hard to 2 guys and against the other 5.

    If your gonna go light and not sure what to do…..Tiers is ….IMHO the best option this week
    for myself 3 singles, 2 doubles and 1 quad

    1×1×4×2×1×2 = 16LU’s

  • mitchsnyderdfw

    Does anyone know if the golfers are allowed to wear shorts for the competition?

    Not really any DFS angle, just a pure golf question.

  • klf_is_gonna_rock_ya

    @mitchsnyderdfw said...

    Does anyone know if the golfers are allowed to wear shorts for the competition?

    Not really any DFS angle, just a pure golf question.

    Not sure but….as long as there are no bucket hats, I’m good.

  • timusbr

    Gold: Morikawa
    Silver: Casey
    Bronze: IM

    I got 20 LU in qtr/minimax, 1 of which is my HM and H2H’s
    gonna play some SE and 3ent max.
    16 LU’s in Tiers, probably the $1 short game.
    my H2H’s are entered to fulfill my missions.

    looking forward to seeing golf being played. (weather seems interesting, Sunday and Monday look to be washouts, wonder what they will do?)

  • timusbr

    @timusbr said...

    If your gonna go light and not sure what to do…..Tiers is ….IMHO the best option this week

    I take this back, there are little to no contests being offered and what is is small with 7LU’s a max.

  • MrBreeze

    @timusbr said...

    I got 20 LU in qtr/minimax, 1 of which is my HM and H2H’s

    I didn’t see a Happy Meal this week?

  • kbarnhill7523

    • 373

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • x2

      2017 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    Gold: Justin Thomas
    Silver: Paul Casey
    Bronze: Matsuyama

    Really think the cream rises to the top. On a long course where everyone is firing at the pin is where I see JT thriving. Paul Casey has been in the top of the leaderboard in every big tournament for the last six months. I think Mats still medals but it’ll be close.

    Sleepers: F. Zanotti, A. Arnaus, Rory Sabs

  • goldandmyrrh

    Weather-wise…..that can be a challenge to forecast as golf is in it’s way. Different opinions, but I’m going with the official JMA forecast which looks ok with Friday being the day with the most uncertain forecast which could feature heavy rain. I like the way they present the forecast. The forecast calls for a little no problem rain each day, but they rate the certainty of each days forecast A, B, or C. Friday is a C.

    https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/forecast/#area_type=class20s&area_code=1123100&lang=en

  • mitchsnyderdfw

    Gold: Smith – Aussie, Aussie, Aussie
    Silver: Detry
    Bronze: JT

    Those are my three highest owned, but any combination of the three will do. I will predict Morikawa finishes out of the Top Ten, wish I could make a prop bet on that.

  • timusbr

    @MrBreeze said...

    I didn’t see a Happy Meal this week?

    no Happy meal this week, Fun at the Olympics…. I misspoke

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