I’m confused about why this is such a big deal for nfl games. The highest owned every week is 30% or so. I see ppl talking about fading this, and even 20% owned guys.
As far as math(I know there is more to it, thats why I’m asking for clarification), even if every player you chose was 25% owned (impossible), the odds that someone has your exact lineup is about 1 in 250,000. If you have 8 players at 25% and just one at 5%, the odds are over 1 to a million. If you actually go through all your lineups and check the percentages, they are waaaaaay, higher than that.
It seems to me, that disregarding what everyone else is doing, and creating your lineups based on how you feel the players will do based on your knowledge and research, you will perform much better.
Fading McKinnon this week in all lineups can either out you ahead on everyone that played him, or completely take you out of the game if he goes off.
Even if you fade just one guy, and it works out, you still have 70% of the field to go through. If you fade that one guy, and he goes off, 30% of the field has an edge on you that you will have to pray to overcome.
This is just the way I have been looking at things, so please explain why this is the wrong way of looking at things. Thanks for any help.