• jobonz

    What does ownership % mean? why is it important

  • TooManyChickens

    You have player A, so does 50% of your opponents. Player A goes off, you and half the tourney shoot to the top.

    You have player B, and only 4% of your opponents have him. He goes off. You shoot to the top, leaving 96% of the field in the dust.

  • rebkell

    Player B doesn’t go off and you’re covered in dust.

  • ChrisGimino

    • 2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • 2016 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    @jobonz said...

    What does ownership % mean? why is it important

    DFS is a game against other people. It is not exclusively a game to make the most accurate predictions. In GPP tournaments – predicting ownership % can be a useful tool in constructing lineups that are better positioned to win the top prize (which should be the goal if you are playing GPPS – simply cashing is not sustainable)

    Here is what it means: if you know an approximation of how highly owned a player will be, you’ll be able to make better decisions on whether you should play or fade. Here are two real life examples of how an ownership decision can help you make real money:

    1) Last year Charcandrick West the mega chalk (30-40% owned projected) – we got late news that Marshawn Lynch was out, and Thomas Rawls would be as good or better as a play than Charcandrick. On Draftkings where there is late swap, the correct play is to switch your lineup from West to Rawls because he will be much lower owned, and has a very reasonable chance to outscore West. If that occurs, you have a huge advantage over 40% of the field. Those that made that swap won all the money.

    2) in NBA, we learned that Kevin Durant would be out with a foot injury, and that Russell Westbrook would become a usage and fantasy point scoring monster. His ownership was projected at 50% or more. In this case, he was the highest projected player in terms of raw points, value, and ownership. It was incorrect to fade this player because there was no reasonable alternative to replace Westbrook. There was no way to gain leverage on the field by fading, or at least the % chance was very small. His price began to uptick over the coming days, and a portion of the field elected to fade the high ownership and challenging roster builds. They were rewarded with close to $0 as Westbrook went on an epic run that included 70 and 80 point games.

    So I told those stories so I can tell this one: Projected Ownership just tells us what we think everyone else will do. Once a contest is live, it is simply a description of what everyone actually did. We can use projected ownership as means to identify potential weakness or leverage points in the strategy of the field at large. We may see a spot where a different player (or different overall roster construction method) can gain an advantage over our opponents. Our ultimate goal is to beat everyone, and one of the best ways to accomplish that is to have strong lineup that is differentiated in some way from the masses. As we saw with Rawls —- sometimes we want to pivot to low ownership. As we saw with Westbrook —- sometimes we just play the best plays. A sensible mix can take you a long way.

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    Great response Chris!

  • FantasyTime69

    Would you guys say you have 2 options in gpps when you know an ownership level is high like 30%. To either fade or take the player in 100% of lineups is the best option?

  • FantasyTime69

    Also how does ownership effect cash games? Should you make lineups where you know they will be high owned or player ownership doesnt matter in cash games.

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