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  • Mphst18

    I am using the analysis of data to draw a conclusion and ask questions in the alleged scenario (the data is not alleged it is actual data). My views are not to be interpreted as fact but to allow individuals to determine if they feel they are playing a game with integrity or one that is monitoring for violations of entry limits and rules.

    Is this a form of circumventing Entry limits and or an alternate form of multi accounting (regardless of if they are actually two individuals)

    If two brothers or individuals take 50% of each others winnings and agree to risk the same amount every night (enter the same contests with the same number of entries) is this a violation guidelines/rule. Of note they may not technically be “pooling entry fees” as brother A does not send brother B any money for entry fees they just sum up or net profit at the end of the night and reconcile.

    They max enter every gpp mlb contest (for the max entries below 150 they don’t overlap entries (they may also not overlap for 150 but I am not digging through all that data as DK supposedly has a game integrity department that is supposed to be monitoring this stuff).

    Let’s look at 9/13 2016 data, the data for 9/6 shows the same as well and we can look at 9/20 data when that’s available: (my guess here it’s the same every day but just taking the Tue slates as that’s the big prize for DK)

    MLB $600K Power Hitter ($444, 45 max) – Chipolteaddict 45 entries, papagates 45 entries no lineup overlap

    MLB $30K Warning Track ($150, 3 max) – Chipolteaddict 3 entries, papagates 3 entries no lineup overlap

    MLB $5K Deep Mini Moonshot ($3, 50 max) – Chipolteaddict 50 entries, papagates 50 entries no lineup overlap

    MLB $10K Slider ($3, 3max) – Chipolteaddict 3 entries, papagates 3 entries no lineup overlap

    MLB $150K Payoff Pitch ($27, 150 max) – Chipolteaddict 150 entries, papagates 150 entries (I am not digging through 150 to determine overlap or not, other people are supposedly paid to do this)

  • emitnulB

    • 89

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #5

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2019 $1M Prize Winner

    • 2018 DraftKings FBBWC Finalist

    @DoubleTime said...

    Allowing the contest to finish, and then questioning it, seems not right. If they are breaking the rules they are breaking the rules regardless of whether they win or lose. I do not think DK would be doing anything about this at the moment had they lost. If they are going to claim wrong-doing they should claim it shortly after line-ups lock, not after the contest ends and they are declared winners.

    This.

    I’m so confused how this is only an issue after someone wins a big tournament. It should be clear before the contest locks whether a rule is being broken, not a retroactive punishment for success using a strategy that lies in a grey area.

  • rainbowtroutman

    @emitnulB said...

    This.

    I’m so confused how this is only an issue after someone wins a big tournament. It should be clear before the contest locks whether a rule is being broken, not a retroactive punishment for success using a strategy that lies in a grey area.

    IMO, the sites have to police themselves and state clear,consise rules on what is allowed and what is not. If they can’t do that, it will always be a corrupt and morally bankrupt game.

  • Zieg30

    @hendog said...

    I’ll issue this challenge again: if I give you a spreadsheet with everyone’s exposure from a contest, including PG and CA, but I change all the names, will you be able to identify which two are PG and CA? If it’s so obvious you should be able to do this.

    If anyone takes this challenge I’ll put the spreadsheet together.

    This challenge misses the point. I will also respond to the following other comment of yours here so that I don’t post multiple responses: “It gets dangerous when you start to add up all these little things that are okay by themselves but together become incontrovertible evidence of cheating.”

    Their well known connection is a huge data point in this analysis. Their history together is a huge data point in this analysis.

    One does not build a case against someone by looking at every data point individually and asking oneself “if I only knew this fact, would I still be concerned?” If that were required, no regulatory/criminal investigation would ever succeed in this country. It is the collective grouping of certain potentially suspicious events that paints a concerning picture and is what painted the concerning picture here.

    Actions do not occur in a vacuum. Context INFORMS, it does not detract.

    Edit: I don’t think anyone here disagrees with your overall point that there exists a possible perfectly innocent explanation for this. Most of us disagreeing with you, though, merely believe the facts suggest otherwise.

  • dude_abides7

    @DoubleTime said...

    Allowing the contest to finish, and then questioning it, seems not right. If they are breaking the rules they are breaking the rules regardless of whether they win or lose. I do not think DK would be doing anything about this at the moment had they lost. If they are going to claim wrong-doing they should claim it shortly after line-ups lock, not after the contest ends and they are declared winners.

    That’s because it’s DK’s modus operandi to look the other way, be asleep at the wheel and do nothing until half the barn is up in flames.

    History tends to repeat itself.

  • timusbr

    @hendog said...

    I’ll issue this challenge again: if I give you a spreadsheet with everyone’s exposure from a contest, including PG and CA, but I change all the names, will you be able to identify which two are PG and CA? If it’s so obvious you should be able to do this.

    If anyone takes this challenge I’ll put the spreadsheet together.

    i dont want a list of exposure I want all the lineups for the individuals. I would do comparisons starting with the highest exposure. and see the relationship between players used. In other words I would deconstruct the lineup in a similiar fashion as I would build one. If I can find a pattern that is consistant between 2 players suggesting this was actually built as one lineup. Find that test, I like puzzles,

  • mizzoutigers48

    • 2016 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    If collusion is proven, they should absolutely be punished. However, I think the mindset that if the entries were flagged before conclusion of the contest then they should’ve been voided is a slippery slope. Ban/punish people proven of cheating, but a credible site just can’t void entries because they are flagged as possibly suspicious. Could you imagine the backlash if they did this, voided a huge winning entry, and then later found that there was no foul play? They can fix the results later, that they can’t fix.

  • Mphst18

    Edit

  • rainbowtroutman

    @mizzoutigers48 said...

    If collusion is proven, they should absolutely be punished. However, I think the mindset that if the entries were flagged before conclusion of the contest then they should’ve been voided is a slippery slope. Ban/punish people proven of cheating, but a credible site just can’t void entries because they are flagged as possibly suspicious. Could you imagine the backlash if they did this, voided a huge winning entry, and then later found that there was no foul play? They can fix the results later, that they can’t fix.

    True,but this thread was started 6 days BEFORE they won. I am sure DK was aware of these 2 users before the contest started but,as usual,sat on their hands until this firestorm broke out. Now they have to investigate it even though its against their will. Of all the things brought up in this thread, their favoritism towards the top players can not be denied. They are being FORCED to investigate this by the players,and the press.

  • mizzoutigers48

    • 2016 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    @rainbowtroutman said...

    True,but this thread was started 6 days BEFORE they won. I am sure DK was aware of these 2 users before the contest started but,as usual,sat on their hands until this firestorm broke out. Now they have to investigate it even though its against their will. Of all the things brought up in this thread, their favoritism towards the top players can not be denied. They are being FORCED to investigate this by the players,and the press.

    I do not disagree with anything that you said. My only point was from the principle of voiding entries just because they were flagged, which is what several people said should’ve happened. That, I feel, would be extremely dangerous.

  • rainbowtroutman

    @mizzoutigers48 said...

    I do not disagree with anything that you said. My only point was from the principle of voiding entries just because they were flagged, which is what several people said should’ve happened. That, I feel, would be extremely dangerous.

    I understand. My point is they should have been questioned way before this week,as many,many players have brought them to DK’s attention beforehand.

  • 7thdaymoneytime

    @rainbowtroutman said...

    I understand. My point is they should have been questioned way before this week,as many,many players have brought them to DK’s attention beforehand.

    That’s the brilliance of “Community Guidelines”. They aren’t really rules per se. “Guidelines” will always be bent/tailored to benefit the high rollers. At some point though, the “fish” are gonna figure it out, get dejected, get bored, and they will leave.

  • MickyD10970

    • 966

      RG Overall Ranking

    @Zieg30 said...

    This challenge misses the point. I will also respond to the following other comment of yours here so that I don’t post multiple responses: “It gets dangerous when you start to add up all these little things that are okay by themselves but together become incontrovertible evidence of cheating.”

    Their well known connection is a huge data point in this analysis. Their history together is a huge data point in this analysis.

    One does not build a case against someone by looking at every data point individually and asking oneself “if I only knew this fact, would I still be concerned?” If that were required, no regulatory/criminal investigation would ever succeed in this country. It is the collective grouping of certain potentially suspicious events that paints a concerning picture and is what painted the concerning picture here.

    Actions do not occur in a vacuum. Context INFORMS, it does not detract.

    Edit: I don’t think anyone here disagrees with your overall point that there exists a possible perfectly innocent explanation for this. Most of us disagreeing with you, though, merely believe the facts suggest otherwise.

    Thank you Zieg. Exactly the point I have been trying to make. This situation is not a math proof it is looking at a series of events that suggests something may be happening that shouldn’t be. I’m not even sure who is to blame here but I can tell you I have stopped (pretty much) playing head to heads and double ups myslef as I don’t want to compete against teams and trains, and syndicates that have sophisticated algo’s that I cant beat in the long run with my own commitments. GPP’s you never know but at least I want to feel that edges aren’t being exploited whether or not I can provide 100% concrete proof

  • rainbowtroutman

    @7thdaymoneytime said...

    That’s the brilliance of “Community Guidelines”. They aren’t really rules per se. “Guidelines” will always be bent/tailored to benefit the high rollers. At some point though, the “fish” are gonna figure it out, get dejected, get bored, and they will leave.

    Totally agree. The “brilliance” of the community guidelines will be its downfall. With millions of dollars on the line daily,having “guidelines” is a joke. Enforceable and exact rules are needed or these “scandals or situations” will just contine on unabated until DFS is gone. I just wonder how much experience DK management has in the business world . Plus,as someone mentioned yesterday, senior management is probably waiting and praying for a IPO.so they can cash out unscathed.

  • geardaddy

    @dchapell said...

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/draftkings-investigating-potential-collusion-in-1-million-contest-1475091553 – this is really a news story now, lol.

    Great exactly what the industry needs.

  • 7thdaymoneytime

    @rainbowtroutman said...

    Totally agree. The “brilliance” of the community guidelines will be its downfall. With millions of dollars on the line daily,having “guidelines” is a joke. Enforceable and exact rules are needed or these “scandals or situations” will just contine on unabated until DFS is gone. I just wonder how much experience DK management has in the business world .

    As evidenced by the last year, not much, nor do they have great PR people, or even likable representatives to mediate to the DFS community.

    note to DK, I’m available for any or all of the above for the right price.

  • cutter2225

    @geardaddy said...

    Great exactly what the industry needs.

    The industry or more so DK brought this on themselves.

  • myb821

    love this quote such bullshit.

    “Martin Crowley said he and his brother, who lives in Greensboro, N.C., often discuss general strategy but barely talked at all last week and never divulge specific lineups. A business-school graduate, he said “I can understand why people might be concerned” given that he and his brother both won such big contests. Nonetheless, he said was “stunned and obviously very upset” that others believe he and his brother might have violated the rules.”

  • Bighouse55

    @cutter2225 said...

    The industry or more so DK brought this on themselves.

    Yep. And there is no way DK discovered the cheating on their own. I guarantee without this message board response they would’ve let their high roller buddies get away with it. I hope the WSJ keeps after DK or better yet that Deadspin does an investigative probe.

  • Rycol19

    As I’ve stated earlier DK is bound by Federal Securites and Exchange laws of 1934 to operate under the regulations that are in place. The governing online gambling and fantasy game law was enacted in 2006. The cat is out of the bag and as we may not here anything for awhile, some agency IRS, SEC and/or the US Attorneys Office is aware of the accusations and they are going to launch their own investigation. DK is in trouble if it’s the SEC. Their fines are the stiffest by far. If the US Attorneys Office gets involved it criminal.

  • dchapell

    Something like this was bound to rear it’s head once they started placing restrictions…they can’t prove that they colluded, and the chances of them having completely different lineups having done their own research isn’t that farfetched – considering all the tools out there that create hundreds of lineups for you with a pool of players.

  • pantherfan40

    you wouldn’t be saying anything if they didn’t win . stop giving AGs a reason to ban dfs again

  • papagates

    • 4

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    • Ranked #4

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    • 2016 $1M Prize Winner

    • x3

      2018 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    Hi All,
    Just wanted to give you an update. I can confirm that DK is currently investigating this issue. I believe this is far too driven by public opinion, and recency bias and not enough data, but that is beyond the point. I understand where they are coming from given the scandals that have rocked the industry in the past, and the public outcry that has happened in threads like these because we are brothers.

    Thankfully, there was enough of a digital footprint that was left, that proves no collusion took place. We have not heard anything from Draftkings since the evidence has been submitted, but the evidence provided should clear everything up.

    Don’t want to get into debating every single point, but just want to point out that for some of you, the burden of proof is disturbingly low. This is an extremely dangerous precedent to set for obvious reasons. For example, it has been repeated numerous times throughout this thread how we never have overlapping lineups in gpps. Mphst brings up data from 9/20 yet only uses the data that serves his narrative and ignores that 4 of our lineups overlap in the payoff pitch that day. I pointed this out in my original post but that was also ignored because it didn’t fit with the narrative of this thread. Many people have referenced this “pattern of data”, yet it took 30 pages of posts before the first person looked back at week 1 or 2? Since it’s clear nobody is going to go back and look at the data as rayofhope suggested I’ll add that we had 4 lineups of overlap in week 2, and 12 in week 1. 12!!! Where is the unfair advantage in that? I’m sure this won’t prove anything to many of you but when the most basic facts of the allegations prove to be false, what is left to the allegations other than the fact that we are brothers?

    Just as in DFS, it is extremely important to look at the hard data, instead of any narrative that can be pieced together, even when those narratives are extremely juicy, and can be convincing. This is one of the most important lessons I’ve learned from DFS.

  • quake211

    • Ranked #76

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @myb821 said...

    love this quote such bullshit.

    “Martin Crowley said he and his brother, who lives in Greensboro, N.C., often discuss general strategy but barely talked at all last week and never divulge specific lineups. A business-school graduate, he said “I can understand why people might be concerned” given that he and his brother both won such big contests. Nonetheless, he said was “stunned and obviously very upset” that others believe he and his brother might have violated the rules.”

    Papa – if you guys barely talked last week how did you wind up on the exact same core of guys and have alternating ownership percentages on the top 6 QB’s, as Ray pointed out? I understand using the same projections/optimizer etc. explains the core guys, but are we to believe that it’s pure coincidence that each of your highest 3 owned QB’s (Wilson Newton Rodgers and Tannehill Rivers Luck) were each conveniently under 3% owned by the other one?

    Not sure how you could be “stunned” that people think you violated the rules when it should be pretty obvious why this at least looks like a coordinated effort. Thanks for at least giving us a response, I hope the evidence submitted clears you guys and there was no wrongdoing for the sake of the industry.

  • Zieg30

    @papagates said...

    Just wanted to give you an update. I can confirm that DK is currently investigating this issue. I believe this is far too driven by public opinion, and recency bias and not enough data, but that is beyond the point. I understand where they are coming from given the scandals that have rocked the industry in the past, and the public outcry that has happened in threads like these because we are brothers.

    Thankfully, there was enough of a digital footprint that was left, that proves no collusion took place. We have not heard anything from Draftkings since the evidence has been submitted, but the evidence provided should clear everything up.

    Thanks for coming on and addressing the concerns raised in this discussion, and providing the week 1/2 data.

  • yeahthisiscuddy

    @papagates said...

    Hi All,
    Just wanted to give you an update. I can confirm that DK is currently investigating this issue. I believe this is far too driven by public opinion, and recency bias and not enough data, but that is beyond the point. I understand where they are coming from given the scandals that have rocked the industry in the past, and the public outcry that has happened in threads like these because we are brothers.

    Thankfully, there was enough of a digital footprint that was left, that proves no collusion took place. We have not heard anything from Draftkings since the evidence has been submitted, but the evidence provided should clear everything up.

    Don’t want to get into debating every single point, but just want to point out that for some of you, the burden of proof is disturbingly low. This is an extremely dangerous precedent to set for obvious reasons. For example, it has been repeated numerous times throughout this thread how we never have overlapping lineups in gpps. Mphst brings up data from 9/20 yet only uses the data that serves his narrative and ignores that 4 of our lineups overlap in the payoff pitch that day. I pointed this out in my original post but that was also ignored because it didn’t fit with the narrative of this thread. Many people have referenced this “pattern of data”, yet it took 30 pages of posts before the first person looked back at week 1 or 2? Since it’s clear nobody is going to go back and look at the data as rayofhope suggested I’ll add that we had 4 lineups of overlap in week 2, and 12 in week 1. 12!!! Where is the unfair advantage in that? I’m sure this won’t prove anything to many of you but when the most basic facts of the allegations prove to be false, what is left to the allegations other than the fact that we are brothers?

    Just as in DFS, it is extremely important to look at the hard data, instead of any narrative that can be pieced together, even when those narratives are extremely juicy, and can be convincing. This is one of the most important lessons I’ve learned from DFS.

    https://twitter.com/fantasysalary/status/780247289218695172

    edit: quuake211 said it much better.

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