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  • Mphst18

    I am using the analysis of data to draw a conclusion and ask questions in the alleged scenario (the data is not alleged it is actual data). My views are not to be interpreted as fact but to allow individuals to determine if they feel they are playing a game with integrity or one that is monitoring for violations of entry limits and rules.

    Is this a form of circumventing Entry limits and or an alternate form of multi accounting (regardless of if they are actually two individuals)

    If two brothers or individuals take 50% of each others winnings and agree to risk the same amount every night (enter the same contests with the same number of entries) is this a violation guidelines/rule. Of note they may not technically be “pooling entry fees” as brother A does not send brother B any money for entry fees they just sum up or net profit at the end of the night and reconcile.

    They max enter every gpp mlb contest (for the max entries below 150 they don’t overlap entries (they may also not overlap for 150 but I am not digging through all that data as DK supposedly has a game integrity department that is supposed to be monitoring this stuff).

    Let’s look at 9/13 2016 data, the data for 9/6 shows the same as well and we can look at 9/20 data when that’s available: (my guess here it’s the same every day but just taking the Tue slates as that’s the big prize for DK)

    MLB $600K Power Hitter ($444, 45 max) – Chipolteaddict 45 entries, papagates 45 entries no lineup overlap

    MLB $30K Warning Track ($150, 3 max) – Chipolteaddict 3 entries, papagates 3 entries no lineup overlap

    MLB $5K Deep Mini Moonshot ($3, 50 max) – Chipolteaddict 50 entries, papagates 50 entries no lineup overlap

    MLB $10K Slider ($3, 3max) – Chipolteaddict 3 entries, papagates 3 entries no lineup overlap

    MLB $150K Payoff Pitch ($27, 150 max) – Chipolteaddict 150 entries, papagates 150 entries (I am not digging through 150 to determine overlap or not, other people are supposedly paid to do this)

  • Cal

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    @superstars92 said...

    but if you describe in your sentence is true

    You don’t have to say “if.” With the ResultsDB, which is parsed from the publicly available CSVs, you can see for yourself in ten minutes. Look back through the bigger multi entry tournaments the past couple of weeks:

    https://rotogrinders.com/contests/draftkings/mlb

    I believe what they say is true – they use the same source data and draw different conclusions. I think this still creates an optics problem regardless. I also think someone can make an argument that they have an inconsistent collusion plan, but I don’t see that argument being made. Instead I see a lot of general “this is what they do every night” claims that aren’t supported by the data.

  • kb32dawgs

    In the end, nothing will ever be done by the sites to curb this type of team play to circumvent the entry limitations which is 100% happening whether you want to believe it or not. We either have to accept it or do not play DFS any longer. As long as the sites are making butt loads of cash off guys like this, it will never change. I don’t care what anyone says, but DFS has taken a major downward swing ever since the Ethan-Gate and I don’t see it getting any better. Sooner or later it will only be guys like CA/PG and degenerates passing smaller winnings back and forth.

    Sites have gotten such a tremendous black eye over the last year or so, what new players would want to walk into this abortion?

  • celtics2448

    @Cal said...

    I believe what they say is true – they use the same source data and draw different conclusions. I think this still creates an optics problem regardless.

    Thanks for a serious counter argument and the new feature, when I’m frustrated with this issue again and have time I’ll dive in for sure.

    The optics are horrendous, as I said elsewhere, I got a friend into dfs a few months back and he stopped playing because of this. He doesn’t care to dive into the data and neither do new or casual players. They aren’t going to come here and bitch like me, they’re just going to stop playing altogether. Sure you could recommend playing single entry and low entry tourneys, but I believe the general population and potential new customers are gunning for the huge prize GPPs where these guys are allegedly colluding. Player retention is a problem and will continue to be a problem because of this, regardless of if they’re colluding or not because the optics are just that bad.

  • fightingjohn

    The sites love the big spenders and will always make sure the rules and lack of enforcement benefit them. No way they will ever say this, but we all know it is true. DFS has gotten to big, to fast with no real regulations in place across the board to make it fair to all parties. Will it change in the future, I am sure it will, but I don’t think we will like the end result.

  • Unico10

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    @superstars92 said...

    But that’s a bit confusing though. Like in that case, it becomes almost impossible to prove collusion.

    I guess it depends on how you look at it.

    In the example above it seems pretty clear that the 10-10 split (actually a 12-8) is a straightforward circumvention of the 10 max entry limit. Playing roughy half Archer paired with a CWS 4 stack in case Lester blows up and roughly half Lester paired with a 4 NYY stack in case Archer blows up. All mixed in with the other teams.

    Again. The way I see it is not so much a PA/CA being bad guys or anything…. to me is an issue of knowing what kind contest I am entering and by which rule is played.
    Honestly the 300 entries in a 150 max don’t bother me as much as the 2 entries in a single entry or the 6 in a 3 entry. Once you enter a mega contest you know what you deal with and the advantage of the circumvention is, in my opinion, more marginal.

  • mileyvirus

    Just wait until they win the $200,000 top prize on DK tonight. Then papa will fly under the radar until the PGA Milly Maker in a couple weeks.

  • sonic999

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    These guys are good. Incredible actually. Hats off to them….But there is no doubt it hurts bringing in new players when the prospective new players think, whether true or not, that the game is rigged. I have so many friends that play season ling nfl and/or nba, but only one plays dfs regularly for precisely these type of reasons. I think they likely collude with lineup construction and strategy, essentially circumventing the max entry limit. I don’t really personally care tbh b/c I only play the big gpps anyway and 300 vs 150 is not a biggie to me. If they sucked, and just kept losing money, it would be great for the rest of us. They are just so good it pisses folks off.

  • mambaland

    i had 20 h2h on FD taken last night all by guys with exact same lineup and all big names…teams at work

  • Zieg30

    @Unico10 said...

    TMLB $600K BRACKET MADNESS QUALIFIER #8 – 10 max entry limit – $40 entry fee

    Papagates
    Godley/CC w CWS/NYY
    Archer/Godley w CWS/TB
    Lester/Weaver w NYM/NYY
    Archer/Godley w CWS/NYM
    Archer/Weaver w CWS/ARI
    Archer/Weaver w CWS/NYM
    Archer/Godley w CWS/ARI
    Archer/Godley w CWS/CIN
    Lester/Weaver w CIN/NYY
    Archer/Godley w CWS/MIA

    Chipotle
    Lester/OGrady w NYY/CHC
    Lester/OGrady w NYY/NYM
    Flexer/Godley w NYY/CHC/NYM
    Lester/OGrady w NYY/SDP
    Godley/CC w NYY/MIA
    Lester/Steph w NYY/CIN
    Lester/Perdomo w NYY/CHC/SDP
    Flexen/Lester w NYY/TB
    Lester/Steph w NYY/ARI/NYM
    Lester/Weaver w NYY/STL

    This is as much time as I am going to spend on this. This is typical for all contests they enter.
    Same optimizer??? ROFLMAO!!
    One has all CWS and all Archer
    One has all NYY and all Lester

    Two sets of 10 made to work with each other.

    If you choose not to see it. Fine… we all have different standards. Just don’t insult people’s intelligence by arguing that there is no collusion.

    GL in your contests today.

    This is a pretty obvious example of them working together.

    Given DK’s loose guidelines, they could still do this and technically be within the rules, but no matter how you slice it, this type of collusion should not be permissible.

  • iron_tactics

    @sonic999 said...

    These guys are good. Incredible actually. Hats off to them….But there is no doubt it hurts bringing in new players when the prospective new players think, whether true or not, that the game is rigged. I have so many friends that play season ling nfl and/or nba, but only one plays dfs regularly for precisely these type of reasons. I think they likely collude with lineup construction and strategy, essentially circumventing the max entry limit. I don’t really personally care tbh b/c I only play the big gpps anyway and 300 vs 150 is not a biggie to me. If they sucked, and just kept losing money, it would be great for the rest of us. They are just so good it pisses folks off.

    Well I look at this way, it’s gambling right? (Game of skill but okay). This isn’t a source of income for me, it’s entertaining to say the least and certainly adds a little more when watching games, races and fights. The amount of different combinations of lineups varies night to night but generally it’s exponentially higher then the amount of entries total in a GPP. Obviously entering more than one entry does increase chances of winning while also increasing the amount you could potentially lose.

    This being said as sonic already mentioned, they are good at DFS and this could piss a lot of people. A lot of what we see is circumstantial but i’m not naive. Like watching a mob movie, alot of what they say or do is circumstantial to the outside eye, doesn’t mean it’s not happening. Even if they are this, doesn’t change my mentality personally when it comes to GPP tournaments. I assume everyone I am playing against is just as good as the top players. I think a lot of frustrations may be coming from the fact that DFS has been out for quite a while, most people get their information from the same experts and many talk in chats/forums and more tools are coming out as everyone increases their ability to research and analyze games, so the competition itself is at a much higher level than it was a few years ago. If you haven’t won in all that time it may be frustrating and easy to fall into the belief that the odds are stacked against us and they’re not suppose to be, when in fact the odds are stacked against us and that’s the way it is.

    The problem with acquiring new players I think is tied in more to the appeal of DFS. I remember watching the commercials and seeing the “winners” and how much they won, and they show the beginning of a lineup being built where they simply just select Aaron Rogers and Le’Veon Bell fast forward and the winning score is labeled “you” at 124 with a 1st place finish of 4,000 dollars second place being 20 points off. No way in hell is that simple and it’s easy to see a new player who comes in believing that, losing hard right off the bat and thinking “fuck this” walking right back out. Is being honest and transparent going to bring in more new players? No, but it might retain more who know what they’re getting into. For those that have stuck around it’s easy to fall into the trap that we’re due for a win and get frustrated when it hasn’t happened and start to the look for reasons other than ourselves as to why this happens. This isn’t just the case in this scenario as I imagine there are those that also max enter and feel their ROI is being fucked by this if in fact it is true. It’s crazy to assume that max entry limits are not circumvented, i’m sure it’s happening, not necessarily by these two dudes, but what would the solution be? Large single-entry tournaments? Removing the max entry limit? Putting time, resources, and money to find definitive proof to ban players? They’ll just pay someone to enter for them in that case and the organization loses more money while pretty much changing nothing.

  • qutgnt25

    @iron_tactics said...

    Well I look at this way, it’s gambling right? (Game of skill but okay). This isn’t a source of income for me, it’s entertaining to say the least and certainly adds a little more when watching games, races and fights. The amount of different combinations of lineups varies night to night but generally it’s exponentially higher then the amount of entries total in a GPP. Obviously entering more than one entry does increase chances of winning while also increasing the amount you could potentially lose.

    This being said as sonic already mentioned, they are good at DFS and this could piss a lot of people. A lot of what we see is circumstantial but i’m not naive. Like watching a mob movie, alot of what they say or do is circumstantial to the outside eye, doesn’t mean it’s not happening. Even if they are this, doesn’t change my mentality personally when it comes to GPP tournaments. I assume everyone I am playing against is just as good as the top players. I think a lot of frustrations may be coming from the fact that DFS has been out for quite a while, most people get their information from the same experts and many talk in chats/forums and more tools are coming out as everyone increases their ability to research and analyze games, so the competition itself is at a much higher level than it was a few years ago. If you haven’t won in all that time it may be frustrating and easy to fall into the belief that the odds are stacked against us and they’re not suppose to be, when in fact the odds are stacked against us and that’s the way it is.

    The problem with acquiring new players I think is tied in more to the appeal of DFS. I remember watching the commercials and seeing the “winners” and how much they won, and they show the beginning of a lineup being built where they simply just select Aaron Rogers and Le’Veon Bell fast forward and the winning score is labeled “you” at 124 with a 1st place finish of 4,000 dollars second place being 20 points off. No way in hell is that simple and it’s easy to see a new player who comes in believing that, losing hard right off the bat and thinking “fuck this” walking right back out. Is being honest and transparent going to bring in more new players? No, but it might retain more who know what they’re getting into. For those that have stuck around it’s easy to fall into the trap that we’re due for a win and get frustrated when it hasn’t happened and start to the look for reasons other than ourselves as to why this happens. This isn’t just the case in this scenario as I imagine there are those that also max enter and feel their ROI is being fucked by this if in fact it is true. It’s crazy to assume that max entry limits are not circumvented, i’m sure it’s happening, not necessarily by these two dudes, but what would the solution be? Large single-entry tournaments? Removing the max entry limit? Putting time, resources, and money to find definitive proof to ban players? They’ll just pay someone to enter for them in that case and the organization loses more money while pretty much changing nothing.

    These companies want it both ways. They want the massive rake these teams bring in but they want to appear fair to the small time players. Cant have both. Either get rid of the stupid community guidelines or enforce them. I have no problem with great players winning a lot of money. But seriously anyone with common sense can see they are colluding to make sure their lineups have no overlap. These players pay a ton of rake to the companies but when you drill down it isn’t those two that are paying the rake. It is the small time player or medium type players who gets whitewashed when playing these pros. Those are the ones who are putting the money in both DK and PG/CA pockets. The pool of these new fish is getting smaller and smaller and many do not re up after seeing what happens. I dont know the answer but all I know is you cant have it both ways. Very curious to see what the new football season brings. Sort of a crossroads year for the whole industry. With regulation and fees and higher rakes what we are used to the past few years has been changing and not in a good way.

  • iron_tactics

    @qutgnt25 said...

    These companies want it both ways. They want the massive rake these teams bring in but they want to appear fair to the small time players. Cant have both. Either get rid of the stupid community guidelines or enforce them. I have no problem with great players winning a lot of money. But seriously anyone with common sense can see they are colluding to make sure their lineups have no overlap. These players pay a ton of rake to the companies but when you drill down it isn’t those two that are paying the rake. It is the small time player or medium type players who gets whitewashed when playing these pros. Those are the ones who are putting the money in both DK and PG/CA pockets. The pool of these new fish is getting smaller and smaller and many do not re up after seeing what happens. I dont know the answer but all I know is you cant have it both ways. Very curious to see what the new football season brings. Sort of a crossroads year for the whole industry. With regulation and fees and higher rakes what we are used to the past few years has been changing and not in a good way.

    Well I think it would fall faster during the MLB season as there are tournaments pretty much every day so it’s easier to feel overwhelmed or get tired of it and leave. NFL I would assume there’s going to be a large uptick in players and as we get to about week 7 or 8 it will start to fall again. I mean current path would suggest that eventually it’ll be those that have been around and the top guys with no new players and we may be less inclined to play those odds which would negatively impact the company.
    But you look metaphorically at say a casino, and we know the odds are stacked but those places are just about full all day everyday. If they want it both ways they’re gonna have it both ways at least for now. Two things will dictate and force their hand, one is government regulation and two is the consumer base. If they noticeably lose on their profits as less people play because of reason x or reason y, they’re going to act. As far as paying the rake, everyone that plays is paying the rake, not filling tournaments is what loses them money, not who wins them. I agree that they should just rid the max entry and this becomes moot and doesn’t matter. But I also think for the good of their business that large single entry tournaments would certainly draw more in as it’s everybody’s single best lineups in competition, not a bunch of what ifs, hedges, or different scenarios.

  • sonic999

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    Cant really have unlimited gpp entries because the games themselves, by law, have to have a fixed total number of entries announced prior to the start of the particular gpp and if guys like CA are putting in 1000 lus a nite or more …well, good luck keeping marginal players and signing up newbies.

  • iron_tactics

    @sonic999 said...

    Cant really have unlimited gpp entries because the games themselves, by law, have to have a fixed total number of entries announced prior to the start of the particular gpp and if guys like CA are putting in 1000 lus a nite or more …well, good luck keeping marginal players and signing up newbies.

    Right and in cases of like 2 game slates or sports like MMA it becomes easier to hit the likely combinations and so it would not be viable. I’d rather have the large tournament single entry but that won’t be viable unless there are alot of player playing but I feel like at least starting it would certainly draw a larger crowd then the ones with increased buy in 150 max entry they’ve been running.

  • Coltssb

    I got tired of giving my hard earned cash away to the dfs criminals. I figured an average Joe like myself would have a fair shot at winning the smaller contest with a $2 entry fee. I thought why would they want to play in the “food stamps contests,” when they live on Park Avenue Wrong… It’s the same group of guys playing max entries in the cheap seats. I’m now playing in the $.25 winner takes all contests until they come for my change jar!

    “Gaming the system!” Structures in companies and organizations (both explicit and implicit policies and procedures, stated goals, and mental models) drive behaviors that are detrimental to long-term organizational success and stifle competition.

    May the best man win!

  • monaco712

    @Coltssb said...

    I got tired of giving my hard earned cash away to the dfs criminals. I figured an average Joe like myself would have a fair shot at winning the smaller contest with a $2 entry fee. I thought why would they want to play in the “food stamps contests,” when they live on Park Avenue Wrong… It’s the same group of guys playing max entries in the cheap seats. I’m now playing in the $.25 winner takes all contests until they come for my change jar!

    “Gaming the system!” Structures in companies and organizations (both explicit and implicit policies and procedures, stated goals, and mental models) drive behaviors that are detrimental to long-term organizational success and stifle competition.

    This is what burns me the most these SOBs they go after the small time players and smother every single contest
    there is no getting away from them. I wait as long as I can to enter a 50/50 or DU to check if they have
    entered and they mysteriously show up at lock time.
    I started playing on fantasy draft to get away from them and sure enough papagates is everywhere.
    If they had any morals they would scale back their money making operation and leave some contest for
    the regular folks playing DFS for entertainment and maybe make a few bucks. They don’t need to be everywhere. This debate has been going on forever and their conduct just gets worse. What they are doing may be legal but it is still amoral.

  • ironmiket

    Try the new snake draft site. I bet those asses won’t be sitting in every 10 dollar snake draft manually clicking the button. I may lose but at least it’ll be fair.

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    Its the online poker industry all over again and the exact same thing that happened to online poker is going to happen to DFS.

  • sonic999

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    DFS mostly legal and entrenched now. Big difference from online poker. . Dk and FD may fold at some point (doubtful anytime soon but companies come and go) but DFS here to stay.

  • deejones49

    @XxHeisenbergxX said...

    Its the online poker industry all over again and the exact same thing that happened to online poker is going to happen to DFS.

    If online poker had 15% rake it would have collapsed the first year.

  • yisman

    @sonic999 said...

    DFS mostly legal and entrenched now. Big difference from online poker. . Dk and FD may fold at some point (doubtful anytime soon but companies come and go) but DFS here to stay.

    really? it’s banned in several states and restricted in many others.

  • Yombo

    @superstars92 said...

    ^I don’t get it. Are you arguing for or against collusion?

    i dont care much about this CA/PG issue, but he’s arguing for collusion. Their teams hedge one another in this scenario – if youre trusting the same projections and same optimizer feels a little hilarious they spit out the exact opposite stacks that hedge the combos of the other brother’s teams

    they dont have to do the exact same thing every time to be working together (not sure why that seems to be a stipulation), and im not saying they are working together cause I hate to accuse something without actual evidence, but it does look a little funny.

  • superstars92

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    @Yombo said...

    i dont care much about this CA/PG issue, but he’s arguing for collusion. Their teams hedge one another in this scenario – if youre trusting the same projections and same optimizer feels a little hilarious they spit out the exact opposite stacks that hedge the combos of the other brother’s teams

    they dont have to do the exact same thing every time to be working together (not sure why that seems to be a stipulation), and im not saying they are working together cause I hate to accuse something without actual evidence, but it does look a little funny.

    So let me make sure I got this clear.

    There are people arguing two different things in this thread.

    1. PG/CA have similar stacks but never the same lineup – must be collusion (they both had similar pitchers and MIA/KC stacks the other night)

    2. PG/CA have the completely opposite stacks (due to hedging) – must be collusion

    So basically, they can have similar stacks and complete opposite stacks, and both arguments are being made that it is collusion.

    I think 1. implies collusion, but 2. (the hedging one) is a horrible argument for collusion. Hedging is -EV. It’s not free to hedge. There is no way that if they are colluding they want to hedge one another’s bets. All that does for them is lose the rake. Think about it this way – if you hedge every possible scenario, you just lose the rake. They don’t have enough lineups to do every scenario, but the more they do, the more -EV it becomes. No way they would do 2. if they are colluding. 1. makes more sense.

  • Unico10

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    @superstars92 said...

    2. (the hedging one) is a horrible argument for collusion. Hedging is -EV.

    Not when is 10 max at $40 and 1st place is a seat worth $10k (if I am not mistaken). See it or not see it, your choice.

    The example I posted makes it even clearer as it’s not a straight 10+10 but a 12+8 as they really wanted to get two more Lester stacks in there.

  • Nelson01

    i think with states starting to regulate this maybe they should also get involved in enforcing the rules or have the irs check into tax returns

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