• BleechDaddy

    We will be reviewing the last 3 nights on FanDuel. We will analyze the absolute highest possible scoring lineups, and see what we can learn. Hopefully this leads us to constructing better lineups.

    Saturday 2/6/2016

    2 studs with all middle of the road players. A player benefitting from a high usage players injury. Not one sign of a punt play.

    Sunday 2/7/2016

    We have money spent on Center. 2 of the top tier point guards on the slate. Middle of the road players everywhere else. Another line up with no sign of a punt play.

    Monday 2/8/2016

    We have a complete balanced lineup here. No splurges and no punt plays. The closest thing to top tier players are at PG, SF, PF, and C.

    Interesting. What I gathered from reviewing all these lineups, is that punt plays and a core of superstars are not required to win tournaments. Remember these are the absolute best lineups we could of constructed on those nights. Looks like a more balanced approach in roster construction is highly rewarded.
    I also noticed that many of the players had excellent match ups. I counted only 4 players with bottom half match ups. Maybe we need to re-consider what we define as a punt play. According to these line ups a punt play would be a player with a un-favorable matchup. Looks like on FanDuel we should never reach for players either.
    It also seems that if you are going to spend up, you should do it at PG, & Center.
    Not one of these lineups spent up at SG.
    After looking at this, I am going to have start over on identifying tonights plays. Hope this helps a member takes down a GPP tonight. Good Luck!

  • michaelscarn

    Very cool post. I would love to get a discussion going on this.

  • Lumphrey

    Interesting only one player on there more than once.

  • TeamTwerk

    Cool write up. What is your definition of a punt play? Etuan Moore would qualify as a punt in my book.

  • stu61

    I think Moore didn’t qualify as a punt in this posting because he was an injury replacement

  • sberger

    I think etwaun was a punt until it was declared that butler was out, but once that happened he was almost must play status at his salary.

  • jv21

    • Ranked #84

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    If you want to look further, I suggest analyzing all the lineups for January. I found injuries, studs and OT to be the factors that decide the best players of the night. This is pretty obvious but its cool to see the results.

  • dreblock87

    I think for 2/8/16 the perfect lineup should have been the following:

    PG CLE Kyrie Irving $7200 53.6
    PG NO Jrue Holiday $7000 52.7
    SG CLE J.R. Smith $5300 31.8
    SG LAC Jamal Crawford $4800 34.1
    SF CHA Nicolas Batum $6700 46.6
    SF DEN Danilo Gallinari $7100 41.1
    PF MEM Zach Randolph $6000 43.8
    PF ATL Paul Millsap $7800 50.6
    C ORL Nikola Vucevic $7800 53.6
    $59700 407.9

  • dreblock87

    One thing I have noticed is the value really is in two top tier PG’s instead of one max PG and squeezing in a value PG to compliment like a Curry or Westbrook

  • jeuffd

    I have found that on the nights I try to squeeze in that extra stud, I compromise the rest of my lineup. The stars can go off, but one or two punts under-performing can keep you out of the money. Great to see that a balanced lineup with upside can trump stars and scrubs (on many slates). It makes sense that it is much harder for a 10K+ player and a 4k player to hit combined 6x-7x value than two 7k players in good matchups. Also noted that the place to splurge is PG and C. Nothing worse than to watch your studs (Wall-60, Harden-50, and Melo-50) go off and punts let you down (Zeller-7.1) and leave you short of the money line. Trading one star for a value play with good matchup/injury and upgrading the punts would have led to more success.

    Great idea to begin this post to analyze and make those tournament lineups more solid.

  • tprokopenko

    @jeuffd said...

    Nothing worse than to watch your studs (Wall-60, Harden-50, and Melo-50) go off and punts let you down (Zeller-7.1) and leave you short of the money line.

    Bogut was only $100 more than Zeller, and went for over 40, so it was certainly possible to take all those studs if you also picked the correct punts.

  • awesemo

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    • $1M Prize Winner

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      2018 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    From what I’ve observed, almost any combination of salaries, or distribution of players between games, can win a GPP. That’s what makes the game interesting; so many strategies can be viable.

  • lastairbender

    I would say it is naive to look at three samples and make so many conclusions. Variance could be the reason why no extreme punt plays made it onto the optimal line up for three days. I agree with umaebitz, depending on a ton a different factors, each slate is different so attacking it with a mindset of “Im not going to take an extreme punt play” or “I need to pay up at PG and C” probably isn’t the best way to achieve an optimal line-up. It could be very possible that a balanced line-up is actually more profitable than stars and scrubs lineup most of the time-70% for example- but because you are set on making a balanced lineup every night, you will be making minus EV decisions not creating a stars and scrubs lineup

  • historepeats

    What stands out to me is the huge difference between their average points scored vs. the points scored that particular night. What can that tell us? You’re looking at a 40 to 65% increase in production for those 3 nights. Will the opponent determine that increase, or injuries and filling in for that injured player, or ‘just their time to explode’?

  • DFSBlueDream

    Wonder what this Thurs. (2/18) FD perfect lineup will look like. 3 game slate with some decent to good matchups at almost every position except PF. I want to play small leagues + multipliers, but I’m thinking I might wait until Fri. (has the larger slate). What do you guys think?

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