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  • airwolfe777

    Would love to hear some thoughts/advice – this is my first time playing DK golf. Not sure where to start my research?

  • Putz

    @mailnurs said...

    Your gonna love watching golf. Pgatour.com has everything you need. My advice is dont take any advice cause people are always wrong. Just look at the projections these “experts” made from last week usually half dont make the cut, and half they say stay away from make the cut. Its the most brutal sweat of all fantasy sports. 4 days of slow paced golf with wicked leaderboard changes on every shot.

    Post your projections this weekend and see how you do vs. the experts on here. If it was that easy…..

  • theoddsmaker

    I will just give a bit of info on this tournament as I go to it every year and know the course like the back of my hand.

    The type of golfer you want this week is a guy who isn’t making his debut after a long lay off (Rivera eats up golfers trying to shake the rust off), someone with solid course history (Riviera really rewards players who know the course very well), and a solid putter. Riviera is a LONG course but a lot of past winners aren’t necessarily considered bombers by any means but a lot have history of being very solid with the flat stick.

    Some trivial facts about some of the holes:
    Hole 1 – This has got to be one of the easiest holes on tour relative to par. It is a Par 5 but really plays like a Par 4. There will be birdies (and even Eagles galore) on this. This is one of the only holes that you MUST birdie because it’s hard to find much more easy spots to lower your score. If you have a golfer get a par here…be pissed…if they bogey this feel free to tell the RG chat “RIP “. This is partially why bombers aren’t auto-plays here is because this is the only Par 5 the field tears up and EVERY player in the field will be able to hit the green in 2.

    Hole 4 – Very tough Par 3. You are hoping your player player gets a par here and moves on. The player with strong course history will aim for the right side of the green and let the slope feed the ball to the pin. Newcomers will aim at the flag stick and likely end up nearly knocking the beer out of my hand as the ball bounces 30 feet off the green and they have a fucked up looking chip shot to attempt a miraculous up-and-down.

    Hole 6 – Sand trap in the middle of the green. Fun to watch a guy hit the wrong side of the green and have to either put up to the top of the hill and watch it come down to other side of green like a miniature golf hole or even have to chip on the green to get over the trap.

    Hole 10 – Biggest risk/reward hole since it is a drive-able Par 4. The veterans usually realize the smart play is to lay-up and try to put it close with their approach shot. If you take Bubba you will be sweating this hole out because he will likely go for it every day.

    One guy that I love on this track is Charl Schwartzel. He always seems to tear Rivera up but has some of the worst luck I’ve ever seen here. I think he could finally get luck on his side. Reason I never go all in on him is this is usually his US debut every year which I think hurts him.

  • zpruitt3

    @theoddsmaker said...

    I will just give a bit of info on this tournament as I go to it every year and know the course like the back of my hand.

    The type of golfer you want this week is a guy who isn’t making his debut after a long lay off (Rivera eats up golfers trying to shake the rust off), someone with solid course history (Riviera really rewards players who know the course very well), and a solid putter. Riviera is a LONG course but a lot of past winners aren’t necessarily considered bombers by any means but a lot have history of being very solid with the flat stick.

    Some trivial facts about some of the holes:
    Hole 1 – This has got to be one of the easiest holes on tour relative to par. It is a Par 5 but really plays like a Par 4. There will be birdies (and even Eagles galore) on this. This is one of the only holes that you MUST birdie because it’s hard to find much more easy spots to lower your score. If you have a golfer get a par here…be pissed…if they bogey this feel free to tell the RG chat “RIP “. This is partially why bombers aren’t auto-plays here is because this is the only Par 5 the field tears up and EVERY player in the field will be able to hit the green in 2.

    Hole 4 – Very tough Par 3. You are hoping your player player gets a par here and moves on. The player with strong course history will aim for the right side of the green and let the slope feed the ball to the pin. Newcomers will aim at the flag stick and likely end up nearly knocking the beer out of my hand as the ball bounces 30 feet off the green and they have a fucked up looking chip shot to attempt a miraculous up-and-down.

    Hole 6 – Sand trap in the middle of the green. Fun to watch a guy hit the wrong side of the green and have to either put up to the top of the hill and watch it come down to other side of green like a miniature golf hole or even have to chip on the green to get over the trap.

    Hole 10 – Biggest risk/reward hole since it is a drive-able Par 4. The veterans usually realize the smart play is to lay-up and try to put it close with their approach shot. If you take Bubba you will be sweating this hole out because he will likely go for it every day.

    One guy that I love on this track is Charl Schwartzel. He always seems to tear Rivera up but has some of the worst luck I’ve ever seen here. I think he could finally get luck on his side. Reason I never go all in on him is this is usually his US debut every year which I think hurts him.

    Thanks! Great post. Very useful information.

    Don’t think I can stomach rostering Schwartzel though, haha

  • theoddsmaker

    @zpruitt3 said...

    Thanks! Great post. Very useful information.

    Don’t think I can stomach rostering Schwartzel though, haha

    Anytime I take him he is B-R-U-T-A-L haha. Just saying that he always seems to know where to hit the ball here and does so consistently. His ball striking is ideal for Riviera but he has missed some bone-headed putts that have costed him from winning here more than once and I think his ball-striking should remain superb here and those putts will go down this year.

  • gibbathy

    2014 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year

    • Blogger of the Month

    @mailnurs said...

    Your gonna love watching golf. Pgatour.com has everything you need. My advice is dont take any advice cause people are always wrong. Just look at the projections these “experts” made from last week usually half dont make the cut, and half they say stay away from make the cut. Its the most brutal sweat of all fantasy sports. 4 days of slow paced golf with wicked leaderboard changes on every shot.

    I’m looking at the article Notorious put together last week.

    Spieth = 7th
    Hunter = 54th
    Furyk = 7th
    Todd = 10th
    Streelman = MC
    Kevin Chappell = 18th
    Molder = 34th

    Mine was a shocker, I’m not afraid to admit about being wrong.

  • theoddsmaker

    @gibbathy said...

    I’m looking at the article Notorious put together last week.

    Spieth = 7th
    Hunter = 54th
    Furyk = 7th
    Todd = 10th
    Streelman = MC
    Kevin Chappell = 18th
    Molder = 34th

    Mine was a shocker, I’m not afraid to admit about being wrong.

    To me that looks like a $50k lineup + Spieth.

  • airwolfe777

    @theoddsmaker said...

    I will just give a bit of info on this tournament as I go to it every year and know the course like the back of my hand.

    The type of golfer you want this week is a guy who isn’t making his debut after a long lay off (Rivera eats up golfers trying to shake the rust off), someone with solid course history (Riviera really rewards players who know the course very well), and a solid putter. Riviera is a LONG course but a lot of past winners aren’t necessarily considered bombers by any means but a lot have history of being very solid with the flat stick.

    Some trivial facts about some of the holes:
    Hole 1 – This has got to be one of the easiest holes on tour relative to par. It is a Par 5 but really plays like a Par 4. There will be birdies (and even Eagles galore) on this. This is one of the only holes that you MUST birdie because it’s hard to find much more easy spots to lower your score. If you have a golfer get a par here…be pissed…if they bogey this feel free to tell the RG chat “RIP “. This is partially why bombers aren’t auto-plays here is because this is the only Par 5 the field tears up and EVERY player in the field will be able to hit the green in 2.

    Hole 4 – Very tough Par 3. You are hoping your player player gets a par here and moves on. The player with strong course history will aim for the right side of the green and let the slope feed the ball to the pin. Newcomers will aim at the flag stick and likely end up nearly knocking the beer out of my hand as the ball bounces 30 feet off the green and they have a fucked up looking chip shot to attempt a miraculous up-and-down.

    Hole 6 – Sand trap in the middle of the green. Fun to watch a guy hit the wrong side of the green and have to either put up to the top of the hill and watch it come down to other side of green like a miniature golf hole or even have to chip on the green to get over the trap.

    Hole 10 – Biggest risk/reward hole since it is a drive-able Par 4. The veterans usually realize the smart play is to lay-up and try to put it close with their approach shot. If you take Bubba you will be sweating this hole out because he will likely go for it every day.

    One guy that I love on this track is Charl Schwartzel. He always seems to tear Rivera up but has some of the worst luck I’ve ever seen here. I think he could finally get luck on his side. Reason I never go all in on him is this is usually his US debut every year which I think hurts him.

    This is an incredibly insightful post. I really sppreciate it! I am playing in the DK $100k PGA $27 game, so this will help my research! Cant wait!

  • golfer32

    Some DK values I like are hearn, choi, mcgirt, finau

  • leafs93

    Swing and a Miss with the pricing this week, DK back to their old ways, right when i was looking forward to the 20K Mcilroy

  • golfer32

    Why would you look forward to someone being priced that high?

  • gordmania

    i had beljan and jones on 20% of my tickets. everyone else missed the cut

  • gordmania

    @leafs93 said...

    Swing and a Miss with the pricing this week, DK back to their old ways, right when i was looking forward to the 20K Mcilroy

    The reason why pricing has come down, there are more stars in the field this week. those players are still very expensive at the top, but there are just way more top options this weeks in the 9000 – 10,000 range

  • dan72

    The key attribute this week is ball-striking (total driving and GIR or Strokes Gained Tee to Green are best stats to measure this). The list of Riviera’s winners shows the greatest ball-strikers in the game. The greatest ball-striker of all-time Ben Hogan won here 4 times including the US Open. The place is called “Hogan’s Alley”. The last major here, the 1995 PGA, was won by Elk over Monty. Two great ball-strikers with shaky putters. Pavin, Couples, Els, Mickelson are all great ball-strikers with a good history here. Even Robert Allenby (great ball-striker & Horrible short game) won here and he has tons of top 10s here.

  • noddy

    @golfer32 said...

    Why would you look forward to someone being priced that high?

    I will NEVER understand why people want tough pricing in DFS. Part of playing DFS is having players on your roster that you know and can root for. Who wants players on your roster in any sport that you don’t know, or don’t play very much, or suck, or etc. I just don’t get it. More people who are not good at DFS will play if they can put together a lineup that they can follow along with.

  • dtmls

    thank you for that site very informative to us newer PGA DK players.

  • huitcinq

    @noddy said...

    I will NEVER understand why people want tough pricing in DFS.

    Cause I think it gives me an advantage

  • hoangryhippo

    My money is on Jordan Spieth and Nick Watney this weekend at Rivera!!!

  • huitcinq

    @dan72 said...

    The best advice for a newbie or anyone is to follow smartgolfbets (Mike Miller) on twitter. Then look at his google docs spreadsheets. THIS IS THE BEST INFORMATION ON THE INTERNET!!!

    This is pretty sexy.

    The odds to win isn’t very useful, as you pointed out that’s what DK uses to set their prices.

    Seeing the players’ histories like this in one place is pretty nice information though, will save me a lot of time.

  • elmore0631

    Some really awesome information on here

    Thanks guys!

  • noddy

    @huitcinq said...

    Cause I think it gives me an advantage

    I now understand

  • huitcinq

    keyword: “think”

  • uncforte

    I’m feeling really bored this week and have some free time on my hand so I’ve decided to give golf a try this week. I’m really curious about where the edge comes from. From a naïve position it seems like if DK sets its pricing according to the odds and those odds are determined I would assume largely from the same factors that make a particular golfer attractive from a DFS perspective then there are relatively few pricing mistakes to exploit. Where does this edge largely come from? A few golfers where DK is off from the odds? A few golfers where people feel the odds are incorrect? Correctly choosing whether to do scrubs/stars or more balanced based on the course or just in general? I would appreciate help from someone who is a winner at this to get me pointed in the right direction.

  • dan72

    @uncforte said...

    I’m feeling really bored this week and have some free time on my hand so I’ve decided to give golf a try this week. I’m really curious about where the edge comes from. From a naïve position it seems like if DK sets its pricing according to the odds and those odds are determined I would assume largely from the same factors that make a particular golfer attractive from a DFS perspective then there are relatively few pricing mistakes to exploit. Where does this edge largely come from? A few golfers where DK is off from the odds? A few golfers where people feel the odds are incorrect? Correctly choosing whether to do scrubs/stars or more balanced based on the course or just in general? I would appreciate help from someone who is a winner at this to get me pointed in the right direction.

    The prices are Odds to Win. But the key DK golf is getting players to make the cut first. So some players aren’t likely to win but they are more likely to make the cut are better plays than the odds indicate.

    Take Phil Mickelson for example. He is boom or bust at this stage in the career and always towards the top of the betting favorites but he isnt a good DFS player cause he misses a lot of cuts.

    A more balanced approach is a good idea.

  • huitcinq

    I can’t even really comment on that. Lineup construction as in any sport is key, but the problem with golf is your players’ performance are never related. What phil does will never impact what bubba does, so there’s even less edge for lineup construction than in other sports where you can pair or stack. You work to making a lineup where all your guys make the cut.

    Since pricing is based on odds, building a solid lineup becomes a handicapping exercise. Golf DFS is the the DFS sport most closely related to straight up sports gambling in that regards.

    I am working on building a systematic edge but yes it is proving difficult.

  • huitcinq

    Also I am going to try Victiv for the first time this week. I think the sub system gives you more variables to work with and I think I can gain an edge in lineups construction there.

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