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  • hokie2009

    Atlanta, GA … East Lake GC … Par 70 … blah blah

    I didn’t want to make this thread butttttt … nobody else is, and DK salaries have been out for an eternity now!

    Lot’s of questions this week. By my math the total number of mathematically eligible combinations for any one golfer should be something on the order of 10,000 unique combinations? I didn’t do a full simulation, but put it this way – if furyk is out, and you lock 1 golfer into your lineup, if you throw the salary cap out the window there’s less than 100k possible combinations I believe. Many of which are over the salary cap. For the high-salary guys who cannot be matched with other expensive golfers and still make the cap – this number dwindles mightily too.

    So. Is it even worth playing the Drive the Green? If so, how will your strategy differ from previous weeks, if at all?

    Furthermore, even if you are playing … if a player like Jason Day has, definitely less than 30k conceivable combinations available (likely 10k or less), and there’s 153k entries and if even 10% own Jason Day – your odds of being unique are crashing towards zero very quickly.

    So, I’m not saying a different strategy is necessary or it is or isn’t worth playing – just interesting things to consider this week!

    Also with somebody like Bubba Watson – is he even playable? I have got to think he will be the highest owned player … but maybe I’m seeing things different. He’s just too much of an obvious outlier, and while it will be spread around for sure (nobody will be 40% or something) … … … at the very least with Bubba, you can literally match him with anyone in the field. With Day, you can only match him with a limited number of players, so the possible combinations dwindles mightily.

    Interesting, interesting, interesting …

    And don’t get me started on what to do with a $7900 Furyk if he plays.

    Should be interesting!

    What are you guys looking at this week? Who ya got? Who ya don’t got??

    Is Jason Day actually an alien? If Tiger Woods was never born and since proven himself to be human, I would say definitely. But since we’ve kind of (as scary as this is) seen this before … … … who knows? 4:1 odds to win?

    I think it’s unsustainable. But if I was playing DFS during Tiger’s heyday (if anybody was) … I might have been saying the same thing about some of the stuff he was doing, and I’d have been wrong. So. Once again, interesting question to tackle!

  • catt0025

    I like Koepka this week. Found some better form this last weekend and this course should fit him a lot better than the previous 3 overall… especially cash games, he’s almost a must play for me just $600 above min priced guy.

  • hokie2009

    Snedeker at $7300, I think Koepka and Streb are clearly superior golfers.

    But if you’re playing the DTG this week or even some of the smaller ones, and you care about being unique, I guess Snedeker would be the “pivot” there for ownership purposes. He’s capable!

    That’s the thing at this point, you could make that case for virtually any golfer in the field. It’s 30 top guys left and they all got here by doing well at least at some point in the season, LOL, so hope springs eternal to make a case for virtually every play in the field!

  • sneaksox

    It’s fun to try and guess the lowest owned guys in a 30 man field. I don’t like Sneds at all this week but his price seems really low compared to what we’ve seen in recent weeks (I could be off point though bc I haven’t ever played him in a tournament). I definitely like Koepka/Streb way more in general, and a bunch of guys priced lower than 7,300 for that matter. There are a number of guys in great recent form near the bottom of the pricing.

  • ninerzfan8

    Got a day lineup with 1400 left over that I’m pretty happy with, will probably swap day for speith and run the same thing and then try to run a couple other pivots with some low price guys, hopefully avoids the duplicates

  • hokie2009

    I have the players $7100 and below ranked in the following order:

    Kevin Na, Harris English, Jimmy Walker, Danny Lee

    Then we have Steven Bowditch, Scott Piercy, and Sangmoon Bae, in that order, as negative EV plays at that salary or below.

    Now there’s plenty of narrative street with some of these guys, Piercy finished well last week, sangmoon last tournament before military service probably? Jimmy Walker former Titan of the Game six months ago … Danny Lee the phenom … and old reliable Kevin Na ..

    But what I’m seeing is if you want to make a play in this range, Harris English is it. I think he’ll be lower owned due to name recognition than the other +EV guys, and a better play by far than Bae or Bowditch. Piercy is a wildcard and Danny Lee deserves some credit for seemingly making a transition starting in July, he’s still weighed down by his season-long form in my ratings.

    That’s my juicy take for the week … it’s a crapshoot but I think going in, that’s a smart play if you’re worried about trying to differentiate (although it might not matter how much you try) … any of those guys could do well or do horrible, but I think English gives you the best chance of getting a good day while avoiding the ownership I expect to see from Na and D Lee

  • hokie2009

    Cash games I think Na is a slightly better choice, to be clear, but if you’re worried about ownerships I think it’s reasonable to expect Harris to be less owned than those other two for a large GPP

  • kantiger77

    @RangerC said...

    Pretty easy to approach this week:
    1 optimal JD lineup
    1 optimal JD fade
    1 contrarian LU (no Day or Watson, save 1K or so)

    Basically plays like a MMA event.

    This is basically what I’m doing.

  • SkeletonCrew13

    Playing double ups or 5 persons this week. Since everyone’s line up will be similar to some extent I am going to rely on that 7th player on my roster

  • hokie2009

    Jim Furyk: Furyk in Atlanta but huge questions abound
    Jim Furyk – G – PGA – Sep. 22 – 12:17 am et
    Past FedExCup champ Jim Furyk is scheduled to tee it up in his eighth TOUR Championship this week in Atlanta and enters the tournament ranked 16th in the FedExCup standings.
    A huge cloud hangs over Furyk following his first-round WD (left wrist injury) at last week’s BMW after just six holes. Interviewed shortly thereafter, he described the pain as “sharp” but in a different area of the surgically-repaired wrist than in 2004. In a statement released on Friday by his management firm, “Jim is on a day-to-day basis.” If this were the NFL, the 45-year-old would be listed as questionable (at best) and more likely a game-time decision. Not to question his resolve, but if he goes, the 2010 tournament winner and FEC champ will be one swing away from another early exit. Sep. 22 – 12:17 am

    That’s all I’ve seen so far on Furyk. I thought I saw he was supposed to visit with his doctor Tuesday (today) and make a decision.

    I think worst possible scenario is he plays, with no extra info about his injury.
    Second scenario is he doesn’t play, in which case, at least we know.
    Or maybe he’ll come out with something in the press stating that he’s 100% and, well, if I’m going to believe anybody, I’ve gotta think James Furyk is as honest as a Denver man can be …

  • sneaksox

    @hokie2009 said...

    Cash games I think Na is a slightly better choice, to be clear, but if you’re worried about ownerships I think it’s reasonable to expect Harris to be less owned than those other two for a large GPP

    I also like Harris the best of the under 7,100 bunch.

    ^ Great Me & My Uncle reference/steal your face avatar too. Been meaning to comment on the logo in your article!

  • wavegoodbye

    @sneaksox said...

    I think the winning lineup this week won’t have Day, even if/when he wins the championship. There are a lot of great lineups you can make without any of the top guys while still leaving money on the table. I have one Day lineup but am probably not taking anyone else over 10K. Anyone else in the same mind-frame?

    Bubba at 8,700 and Sneds at 7,300 (even though his recent form has been terrible) are two of the underpriced guys I noticed right away. I actually think Berger may be the highest owed this week (or highest owned paired with Day) because he’s been on fire the last two tournaments and is still one of the cheapest guys at 7,200. Wish he’d been closer to 8K to keep people off him since he jumped up to 9th in the FedEx cup after his second place last week.

    kind of glad berger is so lowly priced tbh and hope he;ll be highly owned… love him but still a rookie and this is a tough field

  • TeamTwerk

    Are there any golfers that stand out as being exceptionally hungry for a win or high finish for any reason to anyone?

  • hokie2009

    @TeamTwerk said...

    Are there any golfers that stand out as being exceptionally hungry for a win or high finish for any reason to anyone?

    Not necessarily to me …

    But I think if you wanted to play that angle, the things people will be looking at, just to list a few off the top of my head …

    Bae last tournament before he has military service and seems to have been playing better sometimes since the announcement that he had to go back was made. But I’m not on him.

    I think there are a few guys who in theory could be playing for a Presidents cup spot if Furyk is not going to play, those I think would be Haas, Kisner, and maybe Koepka – at least those are three names I’ve heard floated around.

    As far as overall motivation I think it’s mostly equal for everyone … I mean $10mil if you win the whole playoffs and a good payout if you win the tournament and don’t finish first in fedex pts still … … … It’s not the ever-lasting allure of a major championship but I think it’s beefy enough that most everyone will be going out there with their best effort.

    In cash games there might be some angles to play with guys who … basically have no shot at winning if they don’t finish first, and if they start off slow they may just mail it in the rest of the weekend, but I think playing that game spins you in more circles than getting you somewhere where you have an edge …

    Some people might play the hometown angle with Georgia natives?? Or UGa guys … there’s several I think … again, I have a hard time changing my ratings based on that alone, I tend to just take them as they come …

    Off the top of my head, that’s a few, maybe some other people have some more …

  • ninerzfan8

    If day wins he has a realistic shot at stealing player of the year from Spieth.

    If Spieth wins he locks it up.

    And there’s the 10 million dollar thing

  • hokie2009

    Furyk officially W/D 29 man field now

  • catt0025

    Hokie, how are you liking the “mid/high-tier” guys… IE the Matsuyama to Stenson group… EDIT: feels like Oosty and Kuchar will be under owned just due to their price level.

  • hokie2009

    Henrik Stenson ON
    Rickie Fowler OFF
    Justin Rose OK
    Dustin Johnson OK
    Bubba Watson ON
    Zach Johnson OFF leaning meh
    Hideki Matsuyama ON
    Matt Kuchar ON
    Louis Oosthuizen OFF, always a GPP throwaway though
    Patrick Reed ON but not as much as the others
    Paul Casey ON

    Basically I’m going to be playing guys in this range a ton, but I think most people can say that about most of the mid-and-low-salary guys if you’re playing multiple lineups.

    Strongly leaning towards not playing the DTG this week and putting that money in other contests … it’s just tough. It’s exciting to think about “what if I did have a unique one?” and things like that but at the end of the day I think it makes sense to go elsewhere, at least for the bulk of my play. I’d prefer to do that and make the best plays rather than putting out lineups that I know are sub-optimal just because they might be unique – but that’s just my style!

    I’ll have SOMETHING in the DTG for sure, but mostly just a few lineups of fun money probably.

  • ASmithIV

    • Ranked #37

      RG Tiered Ranking

    All Star week. Every LU looks hilarious.

  • TeamTwerk

    @hokie2009 said...

    Not necessarily to me …

    But I think if you wanted to play that angle, the things people will be looking at, just to list a few off the top of my head …

    Bae last tournament before he has military service and seems to have been playing better sometimes since the announcement that he had to go back was made. But I’m not on him.

    I think there are a few guys who in theory could be playing for a Presidents cup spot if Furyk is not going to play, those I think would be Haas, Kisner, and maybe Koepka – at least those are three names I’ve heard floated around.

    As far as overall motivation I think it’s mostly equal for everyone … I mean $10mil if you win the whole playoffs and a good payout if you win the tournament and don’t finish first in fedex pts still … … … It’s not the ever-lasting allure of a major championship but I think it’s beefy enough that most everyone will be going out there with their best effort.

    In cash games there might be some angles to play with guys who … basically have no shot at winning if they don’t finish first, and if they start off slow they may just mail it in the rest of the weekend, but I think playing that game spins you in more circles than getting you somewhere where you have an edge …

    Some people might play the hometown angle with Georgia natives?? Or UGa guys … there’s several I think … again, I have a hard time changing my ratings based on that alone, I tend to just take them as they come …

    Off the top of my head, that’s a few, maybe some other people have some more …

    Good stuff here. I like the presidents cup angle for some of the guys and the $ if there are guys you think would really care that much about it.

    I could see Spieth feeling highly motivated to win. He seems very competitive to me and I think he would feel very disappointed if he didn’t reclaim his throne and player of the year after such a phenomenal season.

    Who do you think would be motivated to perform better? those who exceeded expectations in making the championship (Bowditch, Lee, Bae, Berger, Streb) or guys who have played below expectation this season: Walker, Snedeker, Haas, maybe Kuchar Watson? I could see arguments for both groups wanting to play well but I would give slight edge to those that have played below expectations as wanting redemption and go into next season strong. The Bowditch’s of the world might just be thrilled to have made it this far.

  • MrSnuffleupagus

    Charlie Hoffman

  • hokie2009

    • I just noticed that Bill Haas has already been named as a captain’s pick for the President’s Cup team, so forget me including his name earlier. ****
  • regns08

    damn where do I go for course history now? It seems golfstats.com has decided to charge for that info.

  • catt0025

    Why are you OFF rickie? Good course fit per your results/spreadsheet… motivation factor is there. Been playing well.

  • hokie2009

    Yeah, so, Rickie Fowler … … …

    Up front I’ll admit there’s some personal anti-preference for him … mostly well-founded though? Not entirely because people dress their children up in Rickie Fowler outfits and make them go watch Rickie Fowler play golf on Sundays – and they should be arrested for child abuse!

    In all seriousness though. I would hesitate to say he’s a … better than normal course-fit. Based on those factors alone I’d still take Stenson, Rose, or Spieth at similar salary levels. So that fact alone will pretty much drown him out of any lineups for me, and I tend not to hedge on my DFS lineups, so that’d be the simplest explanation for why I am totally off of him. If you wanted to look at it this way (which obviously things other than course fit need to be considered, too) – he’s I believe 5th in the course fit and also 5th in salary. So like I said there’s lots of other factors, but that seems like a break-even play at best to me based on course-fit alone.

    I am totally off of him every week though. I guess my opinion of Rickie is … he’s just way more inconsistent than the other with whom his name gets put in the same sentence sometimes. Which to me is a joke. I think he’s really popular but to make lists and say things like “Day, Spieth, Rory … will Rickie join them next?” I just think that’s kind of ludicrous based on the stats I look at. So Rickie is fascinating because he does play at an extremely high level … sometimes. And when he’s on he’s on and he’s been on some over the past two months! But it just comes and goes faster than any other golfer I’ve seen … now the fact that he has that ability at all definitely makes him more viable than some guys. But everyone at that salary range has that ability IMO and if anybody I drafted around his salary ended up in a showdown with him on Sunday, I’d want to have my guy every single time! I had Stenson almost 100% I believe at the Deutsche Bank and Stenson actually ended up blowing it big time – but if they had that set up 100 more times and got to re-play that stretch run 100 more times, I’d want Stenson on my team over Rickie 100 times out of 100 going into it.

    So I guess this is painting him as a high-ceiling play for GPP play, but my problem there is he’s already $10,300 – so to me it’s like … he’s great half the time, and bad half the time, but they’re pricing him based only on the great events / rounds, and I think the floor there is a lot lower than any of the other “elite” golfers (honestly I do not even consider Rickie quite elite, but that’s a pretty subjective argument unto itself)

    But yeah I know people will disagree with me, and I welcome that … I don’t know everything ever about Rickie Fowler, so if somebody has an angle about why they love Rickie I’d love to hear it – I’m here to learn, too! But based on what I do know, that’s my assessment, and it’s basically the same assessment every week … until he gets better over a longer period of time (not these ‘bursts’ of great play), OR if they lower his salary to match what I believe is his actual ‘average value’ – I will be fading him every week.

    He’s going to burn me up occasionally, but I can’t own everyone in the field and I feel like my chances of betting against him are better than betting against pretty much everyone else around or above his salary level.

  • hokie2009

    @regns08 said...

    damn where do I go for course history now? It seems golfstats.com has decided to charge for that info.

    There’s a page on the rotogrinders tools that I believe shows some more in-depth stats for the players who have played this tournament in the past.

    If you’re looking for finishing positions, I put this together really quick – this is NOT MY WORK, I copied this from a guy named Taco who posts on the reddit PGA DFS forums! I believe Taco visits here sometimes, so Taco, if this is NOT COOL, just let me know! But he puts his stuff out there for free to people to enjoy so I assume he won’t mind me sharing part of it here …

    So, course history chart … not much to go off of for the bottom half of the field who have either never qualified before or are just too young to have qualified before …

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1311Xpzo3cHXa0z3GMfsbMUJ_Z8SR5I8gQTJwq5HZHiM/pubhtml?gid=888744679&single=true

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