PGA FORUM

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  • JonBales

    RotoAcademy Lead Instructor

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    I’ve started to get into PGA (previously knew next to nothing about golf), and one thing I’ve noticed is a small deviation in player value; there just typically aren’t any very obvious value plays in a given week.

    I think that’s the case for two reasons. First, golf is an individual sport, so there are no backups. There are very clear value situations in NBA and NFL when a player gets hurt; a backup gets starter minutes or touches and becomes a must-play in many instances. Second (and related), outside of making/missing the cut, there aren’t really changes in opportunity/role like in other sports (such as a No. 7 hitter moving up to the leadoff spot).

    Because of this, I think it increases the value of being contrarian in GPPs. The argument against being contrarian is that you have to give up value – sometimes too much, as in the case of fading a very clear punt in basketball, for example – but in golf, the values are so close that the ownership percentages we see on the top guys might not be justified. The volatility of the sport contributes to that, too.

  • JonBales

    RotoAcademy Lead Instructor

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      2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    To expand on this, you could also argue that values being so close means you’re more likely to be contrarian without even knowing it in PGA. Unlike a backup getting starter minutes or the Rockies at home, the lack of very clear value situations means you could be contrarian simply by thinking for yourself and doing your own thing.

    Related to this, the lack of correlations in PGA (there are none, outside of perhaps tee times) means we don’t see the same lineup overlap we do in a sport like MLB. Daily fantasy baseball is the ultimate contrarian sport because of the volatility and lineup overlap; golf has one, but not the other.

    I guess this is just me thinking out loud on the merits of being contrarian in PGA; I do think it’s very valuable, but the means of getting there probably differs from every other sport because of how unique it is.

  • priceisrite

    There usually is value every week. . Most of the value comes from players on the European and Asian tours that aren’t regulars on the PGA tour. The same is true for Web.com players playing at specific courses (home course or college course). Since DK doesn’t keep the stats for the other tours many of these players are priced incorrectly.

  • hondizzle

    I think a really good approach to being contrarian is to look at groups of players in 10 player segments. If you are building a bunch of lineups it really helps to see where a popular pivot might occur. For example this week you had a Will Wilcox at 7.4 % and at the same price there was Patrick Rodgers 1.7 %. Understanding pivots will help you separate from the public some.

  • JonBales

    RotoAcademy Lead Instructor

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      2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

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    @priceisrite said...

    There usually is value every week. . Most of the value comes from players on the European and Asian tours that aren’t regulars on the PGA tour. The same is true for Web.com players playing at specific courses (home course or college course). Since DK doesn’t keep the stats for the other tours many of these players are priced incorrectly.

    This is a good point. It seems like player for whom there isn’t regular data can often offer value.

  • JonBales

    RotoAcademy Lead Instructor

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      2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

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    @hondizzle said...

    I think a really good approach to being contrarian is to look at groups of players in 10 player segments. If you are building a bunch of lineups it really helps to see where a popular pivot might occur. For example this week you had a Will Wilcox at 7.4 % and at the same price there was Patrick Rodgers 1.7 %. Understanding pivots will help you separate from the public some.

    Great point. Utilizing quirks in pricing is valuable in every sport.

  • TeamTwerk

    I think DK bases prices almost entirely on Vegas odds to win first place. If you think Vegas is about right then I believe the best way to find pricing inefficiencies is to find cut makers that don’t have good odds to win and guys that make a lot of birdies/eagles along with a lot of bogeys keeping their odds to win long.

  • skeeter1114

    • Blogger of the Month

    I think playing Steven Bowditch is contrarian right now.

    I think looking at cuts made is one area you could go contrarian at. Those who are in the 80-90% range will get more play (Tyrone Van Aswegen anyone). People want safety so if they see someone who has a good cut percentage or who hasn’t missed a bunch of cuts recently, they will be popular plays.

  • walkoff9

    All season in the $300 gpp’s the top 2-3 guys were always really low, but everyone must have picked up on it at once. The last 2 weeks they have been much higher than the average gpp.

  • JonBales

    RotoAcademy Lead Instructor

    • 519

      RG Overall Ranking

    • x3

      2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    @TeamTwerk said...

    I think DK bases prices almost entirely on Vegas odds to win first place

    Bingo. So I think a big part of it is finding areas in which a golfer is superior in fantasy scoring than the odds might suggest.

  • ToeTagginTambo

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      2018 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

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    @Jon Bales said...

    the lack of very clear value situations means you could be contrarian simply by thinking for yourself and doing your own thing.

    Since most people playing DFS Golf know at least a thing or two; I think this is good for building balanced lineups with the players you know in an all 8-10k type of lineup.

    But, I also agree with priceisrite that the sneaky value is with the players from the other tours and who have a house in the area, or a college background there etc.

    I’m still newer to it as well, but it’s easily becoming one of the most exciting sports out there.

    What resources does everyone here use for their golf research?

  • hokie2009

    no “positions” in PGA DFS, either, has some implications in ownership levels / roster construction, as well …

  • tdkenny

    @ToeTagginTambo said...

    What resources does everyone here use for their golf research?

    PGA tour.com has all the necessary data needed to be well informed. Personally I use Fantasy Golf Insider and Fantasy labs to gather most of my data for golf. Fantasy labs has a new great optimizer and some great information via their new player models.

  • smallANDflaccid

    I get all of my contrarian value by doing all of my research and algos and lineup building on the same site where everyone else does.
    That way I am contrarian just like the contrarian people.

    PGA does bring up an interesting scenario given how basic it is.
    DraftKings (and likely others) have posted on RG before that they would refund rake if two members had exact lineups in H2H – but they said it is a very rare occurrence (thread was either NFL or NBA, don’t recall exactly – just recall the discussion).

    I think it is going to happen waaaay more often in PGA if more people start getting into it – there is a fairly obvious way to build a cash lineup that does fairly well, that I’ve already seen show up a lot in the GPPs and I think will start leading to a lot of H2H collisions of exactly the same lineup.
    (it does terribly in GPPs – largely due to the high collision rate – but decently enough in cash)
    I am not talking about any sort of lineup sharing (dur, that would be awesome sharing a lineup and then playing each other), but just “obvious” lineup construction methods.
    This will also get amplified as more sites start putting out lineup builders with an option of default settings.

    So while my comment was tongue in cheek, I genuinely think there is value in not overlapping anything with others – whether it be where you get data, what data you get, or at the very least what tweaks to algos you use if you are on sites.

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