INDUSTRY FORUM

Comments

  • imdabomb82

    Is there a way of determining DFS players profitability levels? Obviously you can look at the rankings boards to see who all the top rated people are, but thats just ranking points. Naturally profitability would just be the bigger GPP tournaments, not cash games, but with all the major gpp tournaments you can grab the payouts for everyone from 1st to last. Ie can i determine somewhere say Awesemo, last 12 months (or all-time) turnover, profit (or loss), and hence profit on turnover? And all the other players listed in rankings boards.

  • madmanjayWV

  • DFSx42

    you can actually scrape this data and compute it yourself, many people do, they just don’t publicize it

    in general, it’s seen as bad for the industry, sites like RG intentionally choose to keep it vague, the founder expressly discusses that in a podcast interview

    just imagine if your mother in law could google search your name and see how much money you’ve lost on DFS, not good for anyone and the few people who would benefit from having better information on the competition already have it

    it would really come up to no good, in my younger and more immature days playing online whenever someone would call me a fish or whatever I’d post a url in the chat that tracks their accounts, pointing out such and such shit talker actually loses tens of thousands in online poker – the end result is it’d make myself feel better for 30 seconds but then ultimately that player usually quit the game – thus cutting off the entire reason I was sitting that table in the first place. It took a long time for me to accept I was better off muting chat, letting the fish insult me and just quietly take their money while they kept on making excuses over luckboxes hitting lucky cards – fact is, a lot of people would probably quit playing DFS if their true win rate was there staring themselves in the face and available for all to see and ridicule – this is also a major reason why poker is moving towards anonymous play

  • rourke441

  • imdabomb82

    yeah that what i thought dfsx42, of course you could work it out yourself, but wondered if anyone had publicized it. Wasnt really interested in it from a fish perspective and who to target, more interested in some longer term ROI’s for top players. Anyone have any idea on long term ROI for the top players? I’m a fulltime gambler, with a long term margin of 4%, and wondered what top DFS players win at?

    And in the RG rankings of 1000+, how many would actually be long term winners? As i assume you could actually be high up on those pages, and actually be a losing player if you just had huge turnover.

  • yisman

    some people dig through the big GPPs on Twitter and occasionally post how much the ‘big names’ won or lost on the milly maker or whatever.

    “And in the RG rankings of 1000+, how many would actually be long term winners? As i assume you could actually be high up on those pages, and actually be a losing player if you just had huge turnover.”

    Very few. Most of the people in the top 1000 have lost a substantial amount.

    saahilsud/maxdalury was #1 for years and was losing large amounts of money. It’s why he has rarely played at all in the last 3 years and tries to sell rotoQL. He is now ranked outside the 5,000, showing how little he plays. You don’t have to play that much to be top 5,000.

    DK and Fanduel have 15-16% rake on their big GPPs (FD actually has increased rake to where it sits now at 16.8% or so for many GPPs). Good luck beating that long term, no matter how good you think your “model” is.

    Hell, many of the milly maker winners are long term losers. You know how many milly makers they max entered to hit that winner? (yes, there are a few exceptions)

  • yisman

    @DFSx42 said...

    you can actually scrape this data and compute it yourself, many people do, they just don’t publicize it

    in general, it’s seen as bad for the industry, sites like RG intentionally choose to keep it vague, the founder expressly discusses that in a podcast interview

    just imagine if your mother in law could google search your name and see how much money you’ve lost on DFS, not good for anyone and the few people who would benefit from having better information on the competition already have it

    it would really come up to no good, in my younger and more immature days playing online whenever someone would call me a fish or whatever I’d post a url in the chat that tracks their accounts, pointing out such and such shit talker actually loses tens of thousands in online poker – the end result is it’d make myself feel better for 30 seconds but then ultimately that player usually quit the game – thus cutting off the entire reason I was sitting that table in the first place. It took a long time for me to accept I was better off muting chat, letting the fish insult me and just quietly take their money while they kept on making excuses over luckboxes hitting lucky cards – fact is, a lot of people would probably quit playing DFS if their true win rate was there staring themselves in the face and available for all to see and ridicule – this is also a major reason why poker is moving towards anonymous play

    I agree with your post. Good points.

    RG could scrape the data from DK fairly easily and post win/loss numbers for the big GPPs but it would be a big turnoff. Imagine if someone posted here in a thread and every time someone was like “you’re down 10 grand lifetime at DFS, you loser”.

    The person would A)Quit posting and possibly B)Quit playing DFS.

  • DFSx42

    @imdabomb82 said...

    yeah that what i thought dfsx42, of course you could work it out yourself, but wondered if anyone had publicized it. Wasnt really interested in it from a fish perspective and who to target, more interested in some longer term ROI’s for top players. Anyone have any idea on long term ROI for the top players? I’m a fulltime gambler, with a long term margin of 4%, and wondered what top DFS players win at?

    And in the RG rankings of 1000+, how many would actually be long term winners? As i assume you could actually be high up on those pages, and actually be a losing player if you just had huge turnover.

    I have heard anecdotally that the top players all get less than 10% ROI, this is in line with my 6% ROI – in one interview the ceo of one of the sites informally stated that the get rich quick ads were wrong as if you look at the top players they are grinding out 6-12% ROIs – just exploiting a minor edge over heavy volume

    There are probably a few who are currently in the 20s at high volume, but they are definitely not many, it’s probably anchored by some big victories (ie milly maker) etc etc. For example, and I don’t mean this to throw shade as I think he’s a great player, but Noto stickies his 100k win intervie and uses the 100k win regularly as a badge so I think this is fair game for discussion. While certainly impressive, he wagered 3k to hit that – implying that if he normally plays well over $3k every night (182 days of regular season baseball a year), he’ll need a 100k win at least 5 times over the course of a baseball season to simply break even.

    It’s an impressive win, I’m far, far removed from putting up 3k on a single lineup and may never reach that point, yet people need to understand that the bigger story is why does he only have one 100k win and not the dozens you’d expect him to have if he’s a break even player. I’m not calling him a bad player, I’m sure he’s had plenty of good nights and doesn’t want to beat a dead horse, but you get the idea. Unless he gets that once per month, he’s losing money at DFS. It’s hard to win a lot in DFS – especially in gpp. It’s just people see the “wow he won 100k” and treat it like an event in a vacuum, ignoring the implication that all DFS grinders have at one point or another put $3 to win $100 and yet are still possibly losing players on the whole.

    I don’t think Noto is a losing player by the way. I’m just saying that when you normally play with thousands on the line, you should expect to hit thousands back quite often.

    I don’t think Sahiil Suud was necessarily a losing player, just that he realized he’d get a far greater return on traditional investments and without the risk of suddenly going broke. A lot of people who’ve been successful for years suddenly drop out of the game – it’s because they had a few bad months back to back and went broke. I was talking to someone who knew him a few months back and he told me he realized Suud was out of his mind when he became aware Suud’s bankroll and life savings were one and the same. I think Suud got a big wakeup call that he was living unsustainably and it was in his best interest to take the millions he had and put them somewhere safe. I also totally get why he wouldn’t want to play anymore.

    A few years ago I was literally emailing yahoo support, begging them to cancel a $10 h2h I’d registered to because I thought I was risking too much bankroll on a single outcome. These days I don’t even bother looking at the individual results of my matchups, just note if it were a positive or negative slate on the whole. I used to do painstaking research into every $1 and quarter entry I played and sweat every outcome. Now I don’t care. A night where I am down hundreds impacts me less today than losing $5 would have 2 years ago. Once you progress upward in stakes, it’s impossible to ever play less and care – at which point it stares you in the face just how awful DFS is as an investment vehicle.

  • yisman

    Saahil was getting crushed at the end

    You can see some of it here

    https://rotogrinders.com/threads/does-saahilsud-even-play-dfs-anymore-1983836

    It would’ve been better for his “brand” had he continued to play and to maintain a high ranking but he was losing too much to continue, by all accounts.

  • DFSx42

    @yisman said...

    Saahil was getting crushed at the end

    You can see some of it here

    https://rotogrinders.com/threads/does-saahilsud-even-play-dfs-anymore-1983836

    It would’ve been better for his “brand” had he continued to play and to maintain a high ranking but he was losing too much to continue, by all accounts.

    wasn’t aware of that, I guess that means we’d all be millionaires if we just started earlier :)

  • Njsum1

    @DFSx42 said...

    It’s an impressive win, I’m far, far removed from putting up 3k on a single lineup and may never reach that point, yet people need to understand that the bigger story is why does he only have one 100k win and not the dozens you’d expect him to have if he’s a break even player. I’m not calling him a bad player, I’m sure he’s had plenty of good nights and doesn’t want to beat a dead horse, but you get the idea. Unless he gets that once per month, he’s losing money at DFS. It’s hard to win a lot in DFS – especially in gpp. It’s just people see the “wow he won 100k” and treat it like an event in a vacuum, ignoring the implication that all DFS grinders have at one point or another put $3 to win $100 and yet are still possibly losing players on the whole.

    You’re leaving out one very important variable in your argument and making an incorrect assumption.

    You’re leaving out all the cashing lineups that didn’t outright win, and assuming none of his other lineups cashed. You’re also assuming he’s playing 3k every slate. He may play bigger when he feels a larger edge exists and smaller when he feels it doesn’t. Yet let’s not go there as it will only complicate things.

    For simplicities sake we can assume these lineups are all 3k buy ins, doesn’t really matter though, if it’s one 3k lineup, or 100 $30 lineups or whatever.

    IMO, he only needs to win once to profit. And actually, depending on what percentage of his linueps cash, and how deep his cashing, yet not winning lineups run, he may not even need to win at all.

    182×3,000=546,000 total investment

    If he cashes at a rate of 35% which is probably on point for a good player 1 in 3. he’ll have 64 cashes at the end of the season. Now those cashes can range anywhere from 1.7x to 20x (in the higher buy in GPP’s…lower buyins you can get a much higher multiple yet the field is also much bigger), assuming he doesn’t outright win. Say on average (other than the wins) his cashing lineups return 3x.

    So right there you’ve got 64 × 9k =576,000. 30k profit. So even if he doesn’t win at all he can still profit. Now I’m not saying it’s easy to profit given the rake and some of the payout structures, yet it’s certainly easier than having to take 1st 5 times during the season.

  • DFSx42

    I hear what you’re saying, but 35% cashing rate? That’s just not at all a realistic metric. I don’t have the data for that specific contest but probably around 20% cash, nobody is twice as good as the field, not even remotely.

    Again, I have 100% confidence he is an elite DFSer, I have 100% confidence that he’s a winning player. I’m just saying that when you make a 2.6K single entry with only 66 total competitors part of your repetoire, you will never play that profitably unless you win it at least once every 60 or so attempts (including other cashing finishes). Meaning he should only play it every night if he expected to win it at least once every 2 months.

    The nuance of the min cashes and 4th place finishes make it impossible to actually calculate to an exact number unless we did what OP is originally discusses, scrape his tourney history and actually look at it all. However, simply winning it once every 60 times implies he’s winning at well above average competition and yet he’s still in the hole for a net loss of 109k for that period. He put 159k in (2,650 × 60) and winning it got 50k back. I don’t know the structure for that one but assuming 2nd was 20k and he got 2nd as well. That’s still down 89k.

    So that leaves him needing to just recover 34 more entry fees out of those 58 other entries in order to simply break even. Definitely doable but he needs more than min cashing the expected amount someone would min cash. It’s possible, but we’re talking about a very favorable slate of 60 where he he was a full 10% better than the average person in those tournies (also the elite grinders) and won and placed second. And yet, it’s still an uphill battle to break even because he only won it once.

    I’m actually in the midst of building a web app for people to simulate this kind of stuff to determine proper bankroll management, I’m not simply guessing here. You can skimp by in the short term, but in the long run it’s impossible to have positive expectations in a 66 man gpp unless you win it all with regularity.

  • DFSx42

    Found it https://rotogrinders.com/resultsdb/date/2017-08-31/sport/2/slate/5ae4d14f95356d3dfb4a8a82/contest/5ae4db9c5689223dfa21604f

    I guessed correctly, it was 20k for 2nd.

    I made a quick simulation of it, you can see that even if you give him a ridiculous edge, he’s only profiting if if he has multiple top finishes in that 60 slate sample

    I highlighted the edge selection in yellow, if you have any questions feel free to ask, I’m too used to making stuff for myself I’m unaware of what is obvious to others and what is unique to my own style https://www.dropbox.com/s/d9z6haxv7o48vyr/MLB%20Broken%20Bat%20Results%20Simulation.xlsx?dl=0

    Like I mentioned earlier, I’m actually in the process of building an interactive web app so people can play with the numbers directly and really begin to understand what to expect

  • Njsum1

    @DFSx42 said...

    I hear what you’re saying, but 35% cashing rate? That’s just not at all a realistic metric. I don’t have the data for that specific contest but probably around 20% cash, nobody is twice as good as the field, not even remotely.

    Again, I have 100% confidence he is an elite DFSer, I have 100% confidence that he’s a winning player

    My argument wasn’t specific to one DFS player. I was just pointing out that someone who plays 3k in GPP’s per night, doesn’t need 5 100k takedowns per season to be profitable.

    And a 20% cashing rate would be for a below average player considering the bulk of GPP’s pay out closer to 25%…maybe 23% average (just a guess though). So a good player should be able to cash at a rate higher than 30% Imo.

  • wolfjb1

    There is an account on Twitter who posts what he says are the NFL results of a bunch of pros/touts, including some of the RG guys. I’ve got no idea if the data he posts is accurate, but he seems to cause quite a stir among the DFS Twitter crowd by trolling the pros/touts from time to time during football season.

  • DFSx42

    @wolfjb1 said...

    There is an account on Twitter who posts what he says are the NFL results of a bunch of pros/touts, including some of the RG guys. I’ve got no idea if the data he posts is accurate, but he seems to cause quite a stir among the DFS Twitter crowd by trolling the pros/touts from time to time during football season.

    the data is accurate, the main criticism is he only tracks absurdly top heavy gpps like the milly maker instead of the complete picture – something like the milly maker is a “play for 20 years and hope to win it once” type of proposition so it’s a bit unfair to track over the course of a season where everyone should expect negative outcomes

  • B_Edelman

    Draftkings posts their average results every month for all of their users. The data doesn’t change much month to month. It’s probably pretty accurate to assume it applies to any sample of DFS players.

    https://www.draftkings.com/average-results

  • yisman

    @B_Edelman said...

    Draftkings posts their average results every month for all of their users. The data doesn’t change much month to month. It’s probably pretty accurate to assume it applies to any sample of DFS players.

    https://www.draftkings.com/average-results

    right, so 83% have been net losers over the past 30 days. If they expanded that to the past 12 months, for example, the number would be over 90%.

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Sites mentioned in this thread

Use our links to sign up and deposit on sites listed in this thread to get these bonuses:

Subforum Index

New RotoGrinders Sports Betting Section!

Are you a DFS player who wants to get into sports betting?

If you have access to New Jersey sports betting, then use our DraftKings Sportsbook promo code and our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get the best bonuses in the NJ industry.

Those who can take advantage of PA online sports betting should use our SugarHouse PA promo code to get the best sports betting bonus in Pennsylvania.

If you don't yet have access to an online sportsbook, check out Monkey Knife Fight, a prop betting platform available in 31 states. Use our Monkey Knife Fight promo code to get a fantastic bonus.

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week. Our goal is to help all of our members make more money playing daily fantasy sports!

Bet with your head, not over it!
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler