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  • CDonaldson83

    I was talking to my brother this morning and we came across an interesting topic.

    How good would the pros be if they had to hand build lineups and were not able to use an optimizer or projections from one of the main sites such as Daily Roto, Fantasy Labs, RG or FC. Just wanted to start a topic to get everyone’s thoughts.

    MAKE IT A GREAT DAY !!!!

  • DSofM

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    Just as good as they already are. Optimizers are a reflection of the players skill, they don’t inherently make you better at DFS. The only difference would be the time investment required.

  • sochoice

    • 2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2017 FanDuel WFFC Champion

    They still would be better than the majority of us. A different way of looking at it is why don’t “non-pros” all accumulate the same optimizer or projections as the pros if that is the only difference between us and them?

  • bhdevault

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    100% would still be better than us. The ‘average guy’ mentality thinks differently but it’s just like anything else. The more time you put into it, the better results you will get.

  • rausch180

    Might be taking the question a bit too literally, but they’d pay someone to make them one if they weren’t publicly available, rather than hand make lineups after coming up with their own projections. At least with the sites it gives a bit more access to optimizers, albeit at a price that might be too much for many.

  • blenderhd

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    Optimizers are just calculators. It’s the projections and skill in consistently building +EV lineups that appropriately apply leverage & correlation that puts them well above the average Joe. You could do this just fine by hand, just like you can do math by hand on paper versus using a calculator. Optimizers just makes the process quicker and scalable for multiple lineups.

  • CDonaldson83

    Here’s another question then. How do the “Pros” come up with Projected Ownership? Would that change the outcome if the Pro’s had to project there own ownerships and not rely on a website such as Awesemo, etc?

  • rausch180

    @CDonaldson83 said...

    Here’s another question then. How do the “Pros” come up with Projected Ownership? Would that change the outcome if the Pro’s had to project there own ownerships and not rely on a website such as Awesemo, etc?

    Isn’t Awesemo just the projections of pro Awesemo made public?

  • bhdevault

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    @CDonaldson83 said...

    Here’s another question then. How do the “Pros” come up with Projected Ownership? Would that change the outcome if the Pro’s had to project there own ownerships and not rely on a website such as Awesemo, etc?

    I honestly think you are a bit confused. The top players don’t rely on sites like you think. They have their own projection systems, their own ways of doing things. Blender said it perfectly.

  • SA16

    Lol the good players do not use sites like these. Maybe cruncher to create lineups from their own projection but nobody good is just using projections from a site blindly.

  • blenderhd

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    @CDonaldson83 said...

    Here’s another question then. How do the “Pros” come up with Projected Ownership? Would that change the outcome if the Pro’s had to project there own ownerships and not rely on a website such as Awesemo, etc?

    Projected ownership can be calculated mathematically based on player projections while taking into account positional & salary constraints. That’s how all the sites come up with these figures, but anyone can do this on their own. It’s just a matter of how well you can accurately adjust for biases that cannot be justified by the projections themselves.

  • CDonaldson83

    @blenderhd said...

    Projected ownership can be calculated mathematically based on player projections while taking into account positional & salary constraints. That’s how all the sites come up with these figures, but anyone can do this on their own. It’s just a matter of how well you can accurately adjust for biases that cannot be justified by the projections themselves.

    Gotcha,

    Thanks !!!!!

  • bigez952

    @CDonaldson83 said...

    I was talking to my brother this morning and we came across an interesting topic.

    How good would the pros be if they had to hand build lineups and were not able to use an optimizer or projections from one of the main sites such as Daily Roto, Fantasy Labs, RG or FC. Just wanted to start a topic to get everyone’s thoughts.

    MAKE IT A GREAT DAY !!!!

    In my opinion if all of the tout sites disappeared or were banned from offering projection systems and/or optimizers the pros would actually benefit and the edge would grow. That would bring thing back to the early days of DFS when the edge was massive as anyone who put in the time could crush the average Joe who worked 9-5 with a family so they can’t dedicate 100’s of hours into building and perfecting their own model.

    Optimizers from the main sites help the average guy way more than a pro as they would make their own projection system and optimizer and have the skills to do so. 95% of the players couldn’t come up with a projection system that could even sniff what Derek Carty has created in the Blitz and the Bat.

    If you could only take the BAT today and go back in time 5 years to a time when not everyone used it you would make a ton of money. All the very top pros have created their own projection systems (and some might have developed them together or share them which isn’t against the rules). So no rules in the worlds would stop them from using optimizers but all the main sites just helped the casual guy catch up in getting all the tools the pros have without having to spend 10,000 hours developing them.

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    @bigez952 said...

    In my opinion if all of the tout sites disappeared or were banned from offering projection systems and/or optimizers the pros would actually benefit and the edge would grow. That would bring thing back to the early days of DFS when the edge was massive as anyone who put in the time could crush the average Joe who worked 9-5 with a family so they can’t dedicate 100’s of hours into building and perfecting their own model.

    Optimizers from the main sites help the average guy way more than a pro as they would make their own projection system and optimizer and have the skills to do so. 95% of the players couldn’t come up with a projection system that could even sniff what Derek Carty has created in the Blitz and the Bat.

    If you could only take the BAT today and go back in time 5 years to a time when not everyone used it you would make a ton of money. All the very top pros have created their own projection systems (and some might have developed them together or share them which isn’t against the rules). So no rules in the worlds would stop them from using optimizers but all the main sites just helped the casual guy catch up in getting all the tools the pros have without having to spend 10,000 hours developing them.

    Very good post and so true. I miss the old days. Grinding cash games was so simple back then.

  • CDonaldson83

    @bigez952 said...

    In my opinion if all of the tout sites disappeared or were banned from offering projection systems and/or optimizers the pros would actually benefit and the edge would grow. That would bring thing back to the early days of DFS when the edge was massive as anyone who put in the time could crush the average Joe who worked 9-5 with a family so they can’t dedicate 100’s of hours into building and perfecting their own model.

    Optimizers from the main sites help the average guy way more than a pro as they would make their own projection system and optimizer and have the skills to do so. 95% of the players couldn’t come up with a projection system that could even sniff what Derek Carty has created in the Blitz and the Bat.

    If you could only take the BAT today and go back in time 5 years to a time when not everyone used it you would make a ton of money. All the very top pros have created their own projection systems (and some might have developed them together or share them which isn’t against the rules). So no rules in the worlds would stop them from using optimizers but all the main sites just helped the casual guy catch up in getting all the tools the pros have without having to spend 10,000 hours developing them.

    I understand what your saying and I agree, but that’s my exact point. In my scenario how would the pro’s do if they couldn’t even create their own projections or opto’s? Meaning they would have to log on their phones or desktops and create lineups with out creating their own projections etc. They can do all the research they want but not actually creating their own proj or models, etc.

  • yisman

    @SA16 said...

    Lol the good players do not use sites like these. Maybe cruncher to create lineups from their own projection but nobody good is just using projections from a site blindly.

    moklovin does every day on DK

  • bigez952

    @SA16 said...

    Lol the good players do not use sites like these. Maybe cruncher to create lineups from their own projection but nobody good is just using projections from a site blindly.

    The Blitz is kicking everyones butt this season which has me depressed about all of time I spend researching every game trying to put the puzzle together perfectly which takes hours and I can’t beat guys who spend 45 seconds just pushing optimize Sunday at 11:45.

    Just blindly following the Blitz optimal and you win almost every single & 3 entry max GPP week 5 and this past week all of my Sun/ Mon slates were won by the Blitz optimal trains (they were top 10 most of the main slate GPP’s). That 207.30 common score was the Blitz optimal. I have tons of respect for Carty as he is the king of projection systems and I didn’t think he had it in him to make a projection system work for the NFL like it does for the MLB but he has made me a believer.

  • bigez952

    @CDonaldson83 said...

    I understand what your saying and I agree, but that’s my exact point. In my scenario how would the pro’s do if they couldn’t even create their own projections or opto’s? Meaning they would have to log on their phones or desktops and create lineups with out creating their own projections etc. They can do all the research they want but not actually creating their own proj or models, etc.

    In your scenario they wouldn’t be pros very long if they had no ability to create accurate projections on players. Even pros that don’t use optimizers and hand build every lineup like jmtowin are still in a way projecting each players floor and ceiling and building lineups based on that. It might not be as mathematical as some others but being able to project players accurately is critical to be good at DFS.

  • Volkster6

    As a Blitz and Bat sub I’ll tell you it’s not as easy as just hitting Optimize at 11:45 and counting the money at 6pm but Carty has done amazing things for sure.

    Most of us who sub to the Blitz listen to the pod and Blitz show to see what Alex and Kyle, as well as Blender last week have to say. In addition you look at stack projections, ceiling vs floor for cash or GPP and take into consideration ownership % and listen to some others in the industry to get a feel for the whole picture.

    Sure you could probably win a $50 dollar 3 man or maybe a 100 person, $75 dollar single entry GPP with the optimal a few times a year, but in order to have success in bigger GPPs you certainly cannot just hit optimal and watch football for 7 hours.

  • bigez952

    @Volkster6 said...

    As a Blitz and Bat sub I’ll tell you it’s not as easy as just hitting Optimize at 11:45 and counting the money at 6pm but Carty has done amazing things for sure.

    Most of us who sub to the Blitz listen to the pod and Blitz show to see what Alex and Kyle, as well as Blender last week have to say. In addition you look at stack projections, ceiling vs floor for cash or GPP and take into consideration ownership % and listen to some others in the industry to get a feel for the whole picture.

    Sure you could probably win a $50 dollar 3 man or maybe a 100 person, $75 dollar single entry GPP with the optimal a few times a year, but in order to have success in bigger GPPs you certainly cannot just hit optimal and watch football for 7 hours.

    You must have missed out in the week 5 insanity when the straight Blitz optimal scored 315 or whatever it was and every single entry and 3 max GPP (5000 entry range) was a 10 way tie for 1st and the $25 SE double up was won by a 77 person train with that optimal cash lineup. Of course you won’t win the 1 million doing that but a lot of $1000+ cashes were shared that day.

  • Volkster6

    Yes I crushed week 5… 2nd Place in a GPP. Was a great week.

    Crushed week 7, week 8 and week 11 as well. Didn’t crush last week even though I’d say the Blitz train did… then again I didn’t play last week.

    All I’m saying, and of course not denying the fact that the Blitz is great, is that you can’t just hit optimize at 11:45 and sit back. A lot more goes into creating great competitive LUs my friend. But you know that since you do all of your own research.

  • Mindofigor

    There was an interview with CONDIA a few years ago and they briefly showed his computer screen so I paused it and saw his spreadsheet and tons of tabs which literally had every statistic that he was crunching in his own projections system. If you want to be great long-term, you have to develop your own system so you differentiate from the masses.

  • NoLimits0

    @Mindofigor said...

    There was an interview with CONDIA a few years ago and they briefly showed his computer screen so I paused it and saw his spreadsheet and tons of tabs which literally had every statistic that he was crunching in his own projections system. If you want to be great long-term, you have to develop your own system so you differentiate from the masses.

    Not the best example since he ended up quitting since he lost a lot of money. I think his biggest issue was he insisted on using only his own projections rather than using others with his.

  • NoLimits0

    You have to define own projections. Most pros do something where they take the average of like 10 websites and then that’s their “projection”. Then they run an optimizer to create lineups based on some criteria (just top 150 or some like do top 30 of each stack). And then they can hand choose some of them or just literally choose the top ones.

    Is that making your own projections? Technically maybe since you take the weighted average of some other 3rd party websites. But don’t fool yourself into thinking they make their own independently. Only a few do that like Awesemo and Youdacao. Most don’t.

  • bigez952

    @Volkster6 said...

    All I’m saying, and of course not denying the fact that the Blitz is great, is that you can’t just hit optimize at 11:45 and sit back.

    But you could have actually done just that and still be better than 95% of players by winning GPP’s week 5. No one is winning GPP’s every week and getting 1 win a season by doing nothing is more than I can say this year as I don’t have a top 10 GPP finish. If everyone was working hard and not just pushing optimize you wouldn’t have 100 person trains with everyone playing the same lineup as all that hard work would lead them to slightly different variations off the optimal.

    I do put in the hours throughout the week and build unique lineups each week and am competitive but I will admit it rubs me the wrong way seeing 77 person trains win using the straight optimal knowing a large majority of those users literally did nothing but pay a subscription fee to get there.

  • Volkster6

    Or purchase a projection system, and just make one minor pivot to a player whose range of outcomes is very similar and price as well, and win all the GPPs… but then run the optimal to get 2nd Place as well!

    I’m telling you, and not trying to troll or be a jerk at all… but if every single fellow subcriber of Carty’s blitz is rolling out of bed at 15 mins before lock, hitting optimize and entering GPPs that I’m in as well, 9/10 scenarios I will win that over them. I mean we all win because his projection system is top notch (1 bad week out of 14 thus far) but you still have to do far more! Interesting debate of course. Good luck tomorrow!

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