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  • CDonaldson83

    I was talking to my brother this morning and we came across an interesting topic.

    How good would the pros be if they had to hand build lineups and were not able to use an optimizer or projections from one of the main sites such as Daily Roto, Fantasy Labs, RG or FC. Just wanted to start a topic to get everyone’s thoughts.

    MAKE IT A GREAT DAY !!!!

  • bigez952

    @Volkster6 said...

    Or purchase a projection system, and just make one minor pivot to a player whose range of outcomes is very similar and price as well, and win all the GPPs… but then run the optimal to get 2nd Place as well!

    I’m telling you, and not trying to troll or be a jerk at all… but if every single fellow subcriber of Carty’s blitz is rolling out of bed at 15 mins before lock, hitting optimize and entering GPPs that I’m in as well, 9/10 scenarios I will win that over them. I mean we all win because his projection system is top notch (1 bad week out of 14 thus far) but you still have to do far more! Interesting debate of course. Good luck tomorrow!

    That is how I used the BAT back in my MLB days as I refused to play the straight optimal and be a part of the 50-100 person trains since even on the weeks that lineup hits your giving up so much splitting the pot. Obviously not everyone does nothing but just push optimize but as a former subscriber myself with 500+ MLB slates I can guarantee you there are a handful that do just that. The existence of the straight optimal trains every slate prove that lazy users exist and having enough success to keep doing it. If you can beat the optimal 90%+ of the time you have to be pretty good. In my career my best years I would beat the optimal between 55-58% of the time. which is only just slightly better than breakeven in H2H’s.

  • NoLimits0

    Bigez how do you get this BLITZ lineup? I’ve been just blindly going with optimizers lately (works pretty well won like 4K last few weeks in NBA on just cash), but want to try to incorporate a few more optimizers for research purposes. My goal isn’t really to make money (my normal job outweighs anything I can make on average) rather just to test out these optimizers if you read my previous posts.

    I’ll probably add a 10% weight to this if I figure out how to get these projections. Are these like free projections you can get online?

  • NoLimits0

    @yisman said...

    moklovin does every day on DK

    Well he does a slight variant. He does just blindly use third party projections but I think he weighs them across sites to get like a consenses projection. It’s pretty much what I’ve been doing works really well for cash games. Not as well for GPPs but that one is about variance.

  • NoLimits0

    @Volkster6 said...

    Or purchase a projection system, and just make one minor pivot to a player whose range of outcomes is very similar and price as well, and win all the GPPs… but then run the optimal to get 2nd Place as well!

    I’m telling you, and not trying to troll or be a jerk at all… but if every single fellow subcriber of Carty’s blitz is rolling out of bed at 15 mins before lock, hitting optimize and entering GPPs that I’m in as well, 9/10 scenarios I will win that over them. I mean we all win because his projection system is top notch (1 bad week out of 14 thus far) but you still have to do far more! Interesting debate of course. Good luck tomorrow!

    I mean depends on if you play cash games or GPPs (or if you just want to min cash GPPs). You would be stupid not to use an optimizers in cash games it’s literally turning down free money. I’ve figured it out hence why all of a sudden my ROI is way higher lately in NBA, a sport I don’t even have time to watch most nights or do research for during the days. I think most pros do something similar although for more size.

  • NoLimits0

    I’m wondering if Laird will be in the optimal lineup everyone’s talking about. Everything else was easy to match up across sites. Laird disagrees in a few of my optimizers. This changes TE too but QB, two RBs, and three WRs was super obvious.

    No matter what I bet 60% of people playing Patrick Laird have no idea who he is lol. That’s called using an optimizer.

  • yisman

    @NoLimits0 said...

    Well he does a slight variant. He does just blindly use third party projections but I think he weighs them across sites to get like a consenses projection. It’s pretty much what I’ve been doing works really well for cash games. Not as well for GPPs but that one is about variance.

    I can tell you that every NBA showdown slate I’ve played (which is a lot), moklovin is just straight taking whatever RG’s optimal is

    He doesn’t care if he splits the prize.

    There was a $100 satellite recently (first won ticket, 2nd and 3rd won cash, IIRC) where he tied like six other people in a 21 entry contest doing that.

  • NoLimits0

    @yisman said...

    I can tell you that every NBA showdown slate I’ve played (which is a lot), moklovin is just straight taking whatever RG’s optimal is

    He doesn’t care if he splits the prize.

    There was a $100 satellite recently (first won ticket, 2nd and 3rd won cash, IIRC) where he tied like six other people in a 21 entry contest doing that.

    Gotcha. There was actually a post a few weeks ago (in my history) where me, Panda, and superstars found out basically moklovin was taking the RG optimal for full slates too. It took us like 1 hour of discussion and it was super easy to see this was the case. However I gave him the benefit of the doubt since it wasn’t always 100% the same (like 70% of the time) so I assumed he might be taking weights of other sites. However maybe RG is the best for showdown so he always does 100% showdown and only 70% full slate.

    For sure he definitely doesn’t make his own projections. That’s obvious I can’t believe anyone would actually think most pros make their own projections completely independently of anyone else (like I don’t care what blender says it’s so obvious most just take other sites). Only like Awesemo, youdacao, and the brothers (as a team) really do that in terms of coming up with their own. Others pros don’t. Most of these pros aren’t profitable in GPPs as expected (kinda like me last few weeks). However like I said it’s been profitable in cash (around 4K despite just taking 10 mins and no research to submit the lineups per night)

  • Bnett2210

    I tried the Blirz for a week, and I wasn’t sure I was getting the optimal lineup that it was wanting, I was mainly using it to see where the lineup trains would be and kind of pivot off of it.

    I recently about 4 days ago started trying out the Fantasy Cruncher site, and I know for CFB it’s pretty solid, and for NBA it’s been good but I was experimenting with it before I plugged the lineups in cash games.

    Do you get the optimal lineup there saying from just locking in 2 of the best value plays and going from there??

  • bigez952

    @NoLimits0 said...

    Bigez how do you get this BLITZ lineup? I’ve been just blindly going with optimizers lately (works pretty well won like 4K last few weeks in NBA on just cash), but want to try to incorporate a few more optimizers for research purposes. My goal isn’t really to make money (my normal job outweighs anything I can make on average) rather just to test out these optimizers if you read my previous posts.

    I’ll probably add a 10% weight to this if I figure out how to get these projections. Are these like free projections you can get online?

    You pay for it if you want it in advance of the slate. In order to follow Draftkings community guidelines you have to make 2 choices for yourself but you can just exclude 2 guys that are not playing out of your player pool like Bell to get the optimal lineup to appear without having to make any real choices.

    I follow it after lock a lock since I know a few names that only play the optimal so it is never too hard to find the group as I like to see what it looks like in comparison to what I came up with.

  • bigez952

    @Bnett2210 said...

    I tried the Blirz for a week, and I wasn’t sure I was getting the optimal lineup that it was wanting, I was mainly using it to see where the lineup trains would be and kind of pivot off of it.

    I recently about 4 days ago started trying out the Fantasy Cruncher site, and I know for CFB it’s pretty solid, and for NBA it’s been good but I was experimenting with it before I plugged the lineups in cash games.

    Do you get the optimal lineup there saying from just locking in 2 of the best value plays and going from there??

    The best way to get the optimal lineup is to exclude players that you know are not playing so it won’t effect the actual optimal lineup. Or on a site like RG which I am most familiar with you can just select any random two players at 5% exposure and make 20 lineups. Using a lock is the worst way to do it since if you get that value wrong it will effect getting the actual optimal.

  • NoLimits0

    @bigez952 said...

    You pay for it if you want it in advance of the slate. In order to follow Draftkings community guidelines you have to make 2 choices for yourself but you can just exclude 2 guys that are not playing out of your player pool like Bell to get the optimal lineup to appear without having to make any real choices.

    I follow it after lock a lock since I know a few names that only play the optimal so it is never too hard to find the group as I like to see what it looks like in comparison to what I came up with.

    Gotcha thanks. I might add that one next year as I see the yearly package is much cheaper. It depends on how much I play for though. Right now I am using a bunch of free projections/really cheap ones but I’m combining all of them and it works out pretty well for NBA and NFL cash.

    I never really thought about this stuff until like a month or two ago when people started talking about optimizers. I can see that it’s pretty helpful literally you can do no research and spend 10 mins and it’s like +EV.

    GPP wise not much success but you just need more samples. Like you said it had that huge GPP win in week 5 and that’s more than what most people win in a GPP for the year. Plus a few pivots here and there and you probably land on a bigger GPP.

    I would do this even more seriously if I had like no job but I don’t really think it’s worth it since I probably still make more at my job than dfs even if I did it full time.

  • NoLimits0

    For the record I tracked the wildcat and MM and most of the top names are negative for the year but I imagine I should start tracking cash games just to see how they do compare to make up for GPPs and also how close their lineups are to “optimal” builds. I imagine most are just doing something similar taking website projections, some probably smarter and backtesting to see which ones are the best and weighing them more. The process is easy took me 1 day to be able to get all the projections and then you just combine it by looping though the names per site. Basically as long as a player name doesn’t change across sites and you can format that you can do what I said above pretty fast (takes less than 10 mins per day).

  • NoLimits0

    Bigez: this does make DFS less fun just borrowing the optimal lineup but hey if it makes money for some they’ll do it. I’m surprised these people just don’t put their like more money on it if blitz does have that type of win rate, especially when dfs is their only income.

    Edit actually come to think of it that’s probably what moklovin did. He was just smarter than everyone to recognize all he needed was to follow the optimizer to make money. I mean according to the Blitz thing it cashes at like 70% rate. If someone knew that they really should put their 50% of their entire investment into it every week since it’s gonna be +EV (and doesn’t even include the top GPP finishes). So moklovin was smart he was just the first to realize this and I guess a few others have followed.

    If I were more serious I would do this too but I was originally just playing dfs for fun and like a potential EV of like 50k/year (probably what average pro makes on EV) extra isn’t a big deal for me compared to others.

  • superstars92

    Funny you guys mention the Blitz optimal lineup. Actually I’m not sure which one that even was. Was that the one that had Carr at QB (as like the only lineup that had Carr at QB)? Or was that the one I lost to by 0.5 points?

  • NoLimits0

    @superstars92 said...

    Funny you guys mention the Blitz optimal lineup. Actually I’m not sure which one that even was. Was that the one that had Carr at QB (as like the only lineup that had Carr at QB)? Or was that the one I lost to by 0.5 points?

    You mean Carr, Powell, McCaffrey, Thomas, Stills, Hopkins, Kamara, Bucs?

    My was pretty similar but had Lamar instead and no Hopkins/Bucs but had Diontae Johnson and Ravens. Cashed easily. Just got it off the combined optimizers. Johnson was the one no one had but RG had him projected well to weigh it up.

  • stv1313

    Since you guys are all over the Optimizers, can you figure out which system Stillmatic and Westy24 are utilizing for the NBA on FantasyDraft? They have had the exact same lineup EVERY SINGLE DAY so far this season.

  • NoLimits0

    @stv1313 said...

    Since you guys are all over the Optimizers, can you figure out which system Stillmatic and Westy24 are utilizing for the NBA on FantasyDraft? They have had the exact same lineup EVERY SINGLE DAY so far this season.

    Why don’t you PM him. A few years ago he wrote some article that sounded like he was depressed and giving up on DFS. Just look up Stillmatic account here and his blog. Now he’s figured it out probably because he realized how helpful optimizers are. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if they are working together rather than using a general optimized.

  • neogamer

    • x2

      2013 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    I think a good comparison here would be to the online poker industry. There was a time when everyone played with no help from apps, but as time went on you would be left in the dust in cash games without in game tools. The same thing has happened in the fantasy sports world. Great players in poker world be great with or without the extra computer help, but they are that much better with it. This is mostly the case in fantasy also. None of these sites are making a newbie player an instant success with special optimizers or tools. The margins are small now with all the info that is readily available, so if you are not taking advantage of tools like your opponents are, you are likely behind the 8 ball.

  • Volkster6

    I don’t know though. On FanDuel last night in the Breakaway DeBrusk was 53% owned. Plays 2nd line for the Bruins and skates on the top PP. For those in this thread who don’t play NHL the Bruins are one of the top teams in the league with a top Power Play.

    Anyways, DeBrusk was mispriced and was only $300. Yep, missed a 0! And he was 53% owned. The edge in DFS will always remain while even a casual poker player without the help of a computer knows AK is a good starting hand.

  • bigez952

    @neogamer said...

    I think a good comparison here would be to the online poker industry. There was a time when everyone played with no help from apps, but as time went on you would be left in the dust in cash games without in game tools. The same thing has happened in the fantasy sports world. Great players in poker world be great with or without the extra computer help, but they are that much better with it. This is mostly the case in fantasy also. None of these sites are making a newbie player an instant success with special optimizers or tools. The margins are small now with all the info that is readily available, so if you are not taking advantage of tools like your opponents are you, are likely behind the 8 ball.

    This is all very true and the hardest pill for me to swallow. For someone like me who plays around $50 to $100 per week it is really hard to justify spending $500-$1000+ a year on tools in addition to the 15.9% rake on Draftkings. It sets up a near impossible situation for new casual players to be successful long term which like poker isn’t great for the longevity of the game.

  • livetorace17

    @bigez952 said...

    This is all very true and the hardest pill for me to swallow. For someone like me who plays around $50 to $100 per week it is really hard to justify spending $500-$1000+ a year on tools in addition to the 15.9% rake on Draftkings. It sets up a near impossible situation for new casual players to be successful long term which like poker isn’t great for the longevity of the game.

    This right here. I can’t do this full time, as I type on my lunch break. I play for fun and entertainment, because I love sports and math. I don’t want to get rich, I just want to sustain my play.

    I can’t fathom spending $50+ a month here or anywhere for that matter for a tool or content. It seems crazy that almost every crumb of usable content is behind a paywall now, when it wasn’t that long ago that sites like this were basically begging us to use them instead of the next 15 Roto___.com startups.

    Not to mention all the lineup sellers, the blogs and other ancillary services that popped up. I often think about what needs to happen to stabilize the longevity of this game – and I can’t seem to think of anything decent. I just hope someone out there has the answers.

  • stv1313

    @NoLimits0 said...

    @stv1313 said…

    Why don’t you PM him. A few years ago he wrote some article that sounded like he was depressed and giving up on DFS. Just look up Stillmatic account here and his blog. Now he’s figured it out probably because he realized how helpful optimizers are. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if they are working together rather than using a general optimized.

    It’s rather interesting that Stillmatic and Westy24 always (and I don’t mean sometimes or even usually – I truly mean, always) use the exact same lineup on FantasyDraft every single night they play NBA. I also find it interesting – and a weird coincidence – that they both elected to not play the NBA tonight.

    Seriously. Must these “two” users make it so blatantly obvious that they are, for all intents and purposes, one single person using two different accounts? If this were being done by the infamous brothers, we’d all be screaming bloody murder.

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    @stv1313 said...

    Must these “two” users make it so blatantly obvious that they are, for all intents and purposes, one single person using two different accounts?

    Or good friends that work together to build a lineup together? Which has been stated many times IS O.K. by DK’s community guidelines and I’m sure the other sites as well?

    I mean I have no idea who they are, but whether we agree with it or not, it’s allowed under the rules. Whether it should be is a whole different discussion.

  • livetorace17

    Ultimately this comes down to the old attendance policy, right?

    At my job there is really no penalty for calling out of work if there is a legitimate need – or even if you just need a random day off for a “mental health day.” However if there is a pattern over a period of time, like calling out every 3rd Monday, or every other Friday, or something along those lines then you have a problem.

    I feel like many folks’ issues with possible collusion is that they understand the same lineups happen from time to time, but when its a pattern over an extended period of time with the same 2 or more “users”, it becomes a problem.

    I could easily have multiple accounts here and on a DFS site and claim they are separate. I could even explain away the fact that the accounts come from the same IP address.

    Duplicate lineups will happen. Its a statistical fact. However when you have the same people with the same lineups day in and day out, is that against the rules?

  • bigez952

    @livetorace17 said...

    Duplicate lineups will happen. Its a statistical fact. However when you have the same people with the same lineups day in and day out, is that against the rules?

    That is the problem many people don’t understand is that collusion isn’t against any rules. You can work together with a friend and build an optimal cash lineup that you both play everyday from now until eternity and its perfectly fine. The only time collusion is against the rules is if two users are specifically working together to circumvent max entry rules so if two people worked together to create 300 unique lineups and split them up 150 by each entered into the same contest your not supposed to be allowed to do that.

    Saying you could easily make multiple accounts and claim they are separate isn’t as easy you think it would be. If you actually win on one of those accounts your going to have to provide social security numbers for tax reporting purposes so you would have to have someone willing to step in and give them your social security number or else you could easily run into problems as you win with different accounts.

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